2020 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

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The 2020 Mariners are a bit like going to a failing mall. There are still some stores you remember scattered about, though the logos appear to be from another era. The fountain’s dry, and the shops mainly sell sunglasses. There’s an ear-piercing kiosk manned by a guy who looks like he missed the carnival employee bus and decided to move into the abandoned Caldor instead. Yes, this will all be hit by a wrecking ball and give way to a new open-air shopping district with a Kelenic’s Grille in a few years, but for now, you wander into the food court and feel your childhood memories being wiped out by the collective reek of old cinnamon, cigarettes, and shame.

OK then!

Mitch Haniger is the best player on the Mariners and one of the few above-average starters who still retains trade value, unlike most of the veterans left behind. Unfortunately, Haniger’s expected to miss the first month of the season with a core-muscle injury, though given that Haniger missed time in 2019 due to a testicle ruptured by his own foul ball, I’m sure he considers it an improvement.

On the positive side, Kyle Seager had enough of a rebound that his career is no longer in imminent danger. While age-32 is probably a bit too late to expect him to get to where he was a few years ago — possibly the most underrated third basemen in baseball — he returned from a wrist injury to have the second-best OPS of his career. With two years and $37 million remaining on his contract, the Mariners could theoretically pay most of the freight in a trade and get an actual prospect, but this is complicated by the fact that Seager’s team option for 2022 becomes a player option if he’s traded.

ZiPS projects Daniel Vogelbach to be an adequate designated hitter, but it’s unlikely he develops into a top-tier bat at the position the way Edwin Encarnación did. Still, Vogelbach enters the spring a near-lock for his job, something new for him now that the team can no longer entertain its curious obsession with Ryon Healy.

The back of the lineup will likely be ugly as the Mariners are still in the “see what sticks” stage of their rebuild. The team’s major league depth is essentially gone, though it’s better for the team to get extended looks at Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley anyway.

Pitchers

Ask for a fifth starter tomorrow, and you will find me a Graveman. The pitching staff has even fewer highlights projected for next year than the lineup does. A second campaign of cromulence means that we can stop wondering if Marco Gonzales is for real, but without a lot of top-end upside, that confidence just makes it more likely that he follows Mike Leake out the door. Yusei Kikuchi did himself no favors in 2019, but he still retains enough of a record from his playing time in Japan for ZiPS to have not completely soured on him for 2020. The longer-term projections still give Justus Sheffield a solid shot at becoming a middle-tier starter, but those forecasts are much less confident that it’ll happen this year.

The bullpen looks mediocre, but it could at least experience a bit of an uptick if Austin Adams recovers from an ACL injury that will keep him out for a large chunk of the season. In truth, the Mariners have little reason to rush him back unless he’s completely healthy. He’s ZiPS’ favorite pitcher on the team; the system sees his acquisition as downright theft. There’s no reason to think he can’t come back and start where he left off. Another reliever that ZiPS (as well as Steamer) is fascinated by is splitter-chucking Zac Grotz, fished out of indie ball to surprisingly blow through Seattle’s minor league system. Grotz doesn’t throw hard, but he induces a lot of groundballs and if nothing else, Seattle ought to have a respectable defensive infield.

It’s very odd, and a bit sad, to see a ZiPS rundown for Seattle without King Félix. It was time. There’s a shocking number of pitchers who are listed here despite having been released by midseason last year by virtue of them being unable to find new employment. Jon Niese, Tyler Cloyd, Christian Bergman, and Sean Nolin may all very well have thrown their last professional pitches, at least in the United States (Nolin, for one, is heading to Japan for 2020).

Prospects

I think what raises my eyebrows about the Mariners the most is their stable of minor league relievers. While I haven’t crunched the exact numbers, I think that ZiPS is actually projecting the Tacoma Rainiers to have a better bullpen than the Mariners do. I don’t mean in the sense of rest-of-career value, but in straight 2020 performance. If Grotz is in the minors in 2020, you can likely add Sam Delaplane, Wyatt Mills, Joey Gerber, Aaron Fletcher, and Jack Anderson, all of whom ZiPS thinks could succeed in the majors right now and I’m like 98% sure ZiPS isn’t making any of those names up. Mills, in particular, interests me, a fairly hard-thrower with a violent sidearm delivery.

ZiPS is fairly confident that Logan Gilbert will be a mid-rotation starter, even more so than it is for Justus Sheffield. Jarred Kelenic’s 2020 projection isn’t quite “there” yet, but but fast forward three years and ZiPS sees him established as a .250/.320/.500ish center fielder. I doubt anyone will mind his top comp of Bobby Abreu, though in complete fairness Abreu wasn’t a walk machine at this stage of his development. Less interesting to ZiPS are Kyle Lewis and Evan White, neither whom ZiPS thinks will establish themselves above replacement-level. The Julio Rodriguez enthusiasts, of which there are understandably many, will be disappointed to see that he isn’t included among the projections here. I usually require a half-year of High-A stats before I do an official projection, other than a very rough WAR forecast for prospect ranking purposes. But never fear – the early returns are promising, especially for a guy who just turned 19.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mitch Haniger R 29 RF 493 430 68 109 24 2 22 66 50 125 6 2
Daniel Vogelbach L 27 DH 535 450 70 108 18 0 26 77 80 132 0 0
Kyle Seager L 32 3B 537 484 61 121 27 1 22 76 45 106 2 2
J.P. Crawford L 25 SS 544 475 60 110 21 4 11 53 60 123 7 3
Mallex Smith L 27 CF 587 528 70 132 22 10 6 40 46 131 48 11
Domingo Santana R 27 LF 511 449 62 109 20 1 23 66 56 178 7 3
Brian O’Keefe R 26 C 357 319 37 67 14 0 10 34 33 98 2 1
Patrick Wisdom R 28 3B 469 424 56 90 18 1 20 58 38 162 7 2
Tom Murphy R 29 C 298 277 32 61 13 2 13 38 18 101 2 1
Tim Lopes R 26 2B 532 487 52 119 24 2 7 44 37 110 21 9
Cal Raleigh B 23 C 475 440 55 94 18 0 24 67 32 133 2 0
Donnie Walton L 26 SS 522 470 54 109 19 2 9 41 41 94 7 8
Tim Beckham R 30 SS 419 387 47 92 18 2 16 49 27 121 2 3
Austin Nola R 30 1B 420 377 45 91 19 1 9 40 34 86 3 1
Dee Gordon L 32 2B 539 507 60 141 15 7 3 31 19 79 30 10
Jarred Kelenic L 20 CF 487 445 57 100 19 4 19 59 36 142 13 7
Mac Williamson R 29 LF 325 292 39 65 12 0 14 44 27 94 3 2
Joe Hudson R 29 C 221 200 19 36 8 0 5 17 18 74 0 0
Shed Long Jr. L 24 2B 466 423 52 97 18 3 12 43 37 132 7 6
Luis Liberato L 24 CF 447 412 45 85 14 3 12 42 28 132 5 5
Jake Fraley L 25 RF 425 390 47 90 21 4 12 48 25 110 14 7
Daniel Castro R 27 SS 360 336 30 77 13 0 3 24 16 46 2 1
Braden Bishop R 26 CF 408 371 41 80 15 1 6 31 28 103 5 2
Dylan Moore R 27 SS 408 362 43 74 15 2 10 36 33 112 15 8
Jose Marmolejos L 27 1B 478 440 51 104 22 2 12 47 33 123 1 1
Dom Thompson-Williams L 25 CF 448 415 43 83 16 2 14 42 26 167 11 5
Eric Filia L 27 RF 378 337 40 86 16 1 4 30 35 44 3 2
Chris Mariscal R 27 3B 448 406 44 85 12 2 10 39 32 136 3 2
Alen Hanson B 27 2B 319 296 36 65 10 3 8 31 16 81 12 5
Mitch Nay R 26 3B 432 393 44 83 15 2 12 46 32 113 1 0
Kyle Lewis R 24 LF 532 490 52 111 23 1 15 54 36 168 2 2
Jaycob Brugman L 28 RF 365 334 39 76 15 2 12 42 27 106 2 1
Ichiro Suzuki L 46 RF 34 31 4 6 1 0 0 1 3 5 0 0
Orlando Calixte R 28 3B 384 360 39 81 12 2 10 38 21 99 10 4
Evan White R 24 1B 469 436 51 99 16 2 15 51 27 129 2 1
Ryan Court R 32 1B 350 313 35 63 11 1 8 31 32 127 3 1
Sam Haggerty B 26 2B 406 355 40 68 13 4 4 25 43 133 19 6
Jordan Cowan L 25 2B 486 443 43 98 13 0 3 26 34 105 10 3
Connor Lien R 26 CF 305 273 27 36 8 1 11 27 24 175 7 3
Jake Scheiner R 24 3B 497 455 51 97 19 3 13 50 30 136 4 8
Mike Ahmed R 28 3B 256 232 23 41 8 1 6 20 19 103 4 2
Jordan Pacheco R 34 C 238 217 20 44 10 0 2 15 14 49 1 0
Keegan McGovern L 24 RF 341 305 35 53 9 1 13 35 26 135 0 1
Joseph Odom R 28 C 345 323 28 62 14 0 7 28 18 120 1 1
Joe Rizzo L 22 3B 591 553 55 120 22 2 10 49 32 133 2 3
Connor Kopach R 25 2B 458 416 40 72 15 3 8 33 31 171 15 5
Joseph Rosa B 23 2B 500 455 46 90 13 2 6 31 35 138 9 11
Aaron Knapp L 25 LF 392 342 34 60 6 3 2 19 40 143 14 8
Jack Larsen L 25 LF 471 421 43 69 14 3 11 40 46 200 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mitch Haniger .253 .341 .472 121 .219 .307 5.9 5 2.6 Michael Cuddyer
Daniel Vogelbach .240 .355 .453 121 .213 .281 5.7 0 2.2 Kila Ka’aihue
Kyle Seager .250 .318 .446 108 .196 .278 5.1 1 2.2 David Bell
J.P. Crawford .232 .322 .362 89 .131 .290 4.1 2 1.6 Chuck Jackson
Mallex Smith .250 .319 .364 88 .114 .322 4.7 -1 1.6 Chris Duffy
Domingo Santana .243 .329 .445 111 .203 .347 5.2 -8 0.9 Glenn Braggs
Brian O’Keefe .210 .289 .348 75 .138 .270 3.4 4 0.9 Adam Melhuse
Patrick Wisdom .212 .282 .401 85 .189 .289 3.9 1 0.8 Shanie Dugas
Tom Murphy .220 .272 .422 87 .202 .294 4.0 0 0.7 Jason LaRue
Tim Lopes .244 .299 .345 77 .101 .303 3.7 4 0.7 Frankie Gustine
Cal Raleigh .214 .269 .418 85 .205 .247 3.9 -5 0.6 Andy Dominique
Donnie Walton .232 .302 .338 77 .106 .272 3.4 1 0.6 Danny Bravo
Tim Beckham .238 .292 .419 93 .181 .304 4.2 -6 0.5 Chris Woodward
Austin Nola .241 .311 .369 87 .127 .291 4.1 4 0.4 Chris Saunders
Dee Gordon .278 .308 .353 82 .075 .325 4.3 -3 0.4 Bob Dillinger
Jarred Kelenic .225 .285 .413 89 .189 .285 4.1 -5 0.4 Bobby Abreu
Mac Williamson .223 .295 .408 91 .185 .277 4.1 1 0.3 Ozzie Timmons
Joe Hudson .180 .250 .295 50 .115 .256 2.4 6 0.2 Tom Nieto
Shed Long Jr. .229 .295 .371 82 .142 .305 3.7 -3 0.2 Jason Donald
Luis Liberato .206 .257 .342 63 .136 .272 2.9 9 0.1 Edgard Clemente
Jake Fraley .231 .285 .397 85 .167 .291 4.0 1 0.1 Keith Williams
Daniel Castro .229 .268 .295 56 .065 .258 2.8 7 0.1 Tony Rodriguez
Braden Bishop .216 .278 .310 62 .094 .282 3.0 5 0.0 Chip Childress
Dylan Moore .204 .286 .340 72 .135 .267 3.3 -3 0.0 Mike Moriarty
Jose Marmolejos .236 .291 .377 82 .141 .302 3.9 2 -0.2 Juan Tejeda
Dom Thompson-Williams .200 .254 .349 64 .149 .295 3.0 4 -0.2 Michael Wagner
Eric Filia .255 .328 .344 86 .089 .284 4.1 -3 -0.2 Adam Casillas
Chris Mariscal .209 .274 .323 64 .113 .288 3.0 3 -0.2 John Hotchkiss
Alen Hanson .220 .263 .355 68 .135 .275 3.3 0 -0.3 Frank White
Mitch Nay .211 .273 .351 71 .140 .265 3.3 -1 -0.3 Todd Carey
Kyle Lewis .227 .280 .369 77 .143 .313 3.6 2 -0.3 John Roskos
Jaycob Brugman .228 .288 .392 85 .165 .296 3.9 -4 -0.4 Keith Williams
Ichiro Suzuki .194 .265 .226 38 .032 .231 2.0 -2 -0.4 Tito Landrum
Orlando Calixte .225 .266 .353 69 .128 .283 3.3 -2 -0.4 Kevin Davis
Evan White .227 .275 .376 77 .149 .288 3.6 2 -0.4 Brock Peterson
Ryan Court .201 .280 .319 65 .118 .309 3.1 2 -0.6 Orsino Hill
Sam Haggerty .192 .283 .285 58 .093 .294 2.9 -3 -0.7 Juan Bell
Jordan Cowan .221 .280 .271 53 .050 .284 2.7 1 -0.8 Carlos Rojas
Connor Lien .132 .215 .289 37 .158 .287 2.0 4 -0.9 Corey Pointer
Jake Scheiner .213 .269 .354 70 .141 .275 3.0 -4 -0.9 Jesus Guzman
Mike Ahmed .177 .243 .297 48 .121 .285 2.4 -3 -1.0 Scott Sheldon
Jordan Pacheco .203 .261 .276 49 .074 .253 2.5 -6 -1.0 Chad Moeller
Keegan McGovern .174 .258 .338 63 .164 .255 2.8 -2 -1.1 Matt Sachse
Joseph Odom .192 .238 .300 47 .108 .281 2.4 -4 -1.2 Chris Curry
Joe Rizzo .217 .262 .318 59 .101 .268 2.8 -3 -1.4 Sergio Santos
Connor Kopach .173 .237 .281 43 .108 .270 2.3 -1 -1.6 Eric Nelson
Joseph Rosa .198 .265 .275 50 .077 .270 2.2 -2 -1.7 Niuman Romero
Aaron Knapp .175 .264 .228 38 .053 .294 1.9 2 -1.8 Jeff Conger
Jack Larsen .164 .249 .290 48 .126 .276 2.3 -1 -2.1 Stewart Smothers

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Marco Gonzales L 28 13 12 4.26 30 29 171.0 182 81 23 45 132 4.17
Yusei Kikuchi L 29 8 8 4.56 27 27 142.0 147 72 21 51 118 4.52
Justus Sheffield L 24 8 8 4.80 32 29 152.0 155 81 20 77 138 4.59
Zac Grotz R 27 6 4 3.87 35 8 74.3 72 32 8 21 66 3.65
Steven Moyers L 26 7 8 4.86 28 24 148.0 170 80 24 33 93 4.70
Logan Gilbert R 23 7 8 4.77 26 26 120.7 121 64 22 40 114 4.66
Ricardo Sanchez L 23 9 10 4.86 26 26 129.7 144 70 19 44 95 4.64
Penn Murfee R 26 5 5 4.65 31 18 100.7 103 52 14 40 88 4.43
Nick Margevicius L 24 8 9 4.84 28 24 128.3 144 69 21 31 101 4.46
Justin Dunn R 24 7 8 4.90 27 27 128.7 130 70 22 56 126 4.75
Austin L. Adams R 29 4 2 3.19 43 0 48.0 32 17 4 29 77 2.87
Nabil Crismatt R 25 7 9 5.06 27 23 133.3 139 75 26 43 126 4.79
Taylor Guilbeau L 27 3 2 3.67 54 0 56.3 51 23 4 25 54 3.52
Sam Tuivailala R 27 3 2 3.70 43 3 41.3 37 17 4 17 44 3.54
Sam Delaplane R 25 5 4 3.82 45 0 61.3 51 26 8 28 79 3.67
Kendall Graveman R 29 4 5 4.97 16 16 87.0 97 48 14 27 59 4.85
Wade LeBlanc L 35 5 6 4.94 20 12 102.0 108 56 19 27 84 4.75
Jack Anderson R 26 4 3 3.97 44 0 56.7 57 25 5 22 42 4.01
Carl Edwards Jr. R 28 3 3 4.08 53 0 46.3 33 21 5 29 63 3.74
Wyatt Mills R 25 4 3 4.13 44 0 52.3 49 24 6 20 50 3.91
Erik Swanson R 26 4 5 5.12 31 17 91.3 92 52 18 31 91 4.77
Aaron Fletcher L 24 5 4 4.37 42 1 68.0 65 33 9 28 65 4.22
Joey Gerber R 23 3 2 4.11 44 0 46.0 40 21 6 25 53 4.20
Ian McKinney L 25 7 9 5.30 28 24 120.7 122 71 18 72 107 5.14
Darren McCaughan R 24 8 10 5.35 27 27 141.3 163 84 30 31 98 5.21
Matt Magill R 30 4 3 4.31 51 1 56.3 51 27 9 25 67 4.21
Brandon Brennan R 28 5 5 4.37 51 1 57.7 53 28 6 31 56 4.20
Austin Hutchison R 25 6 8 5.34 26 20 114.7 126 68 18 56 89 5.13
Connor Sadzeck R 28 2 2 4.40 42 1 45.0 41 22 5 28 48 4.36
Phillips Valdez R 28 4 5 5.22 33 15 101.7 110 59 17 45 81 5.09
Gerson Bautista R 25 2 2 4.47 39 1 50.3 45 25 5 33 56 4.21
Scott Boches R 25 5 5 4.82 40 4 80.3 82 43 12 36 69 4.75
Yohan Ramirez R 25 5 7 5.27 28 14 94.0 83 55 11 85 107 5.14
Dan Altavilla R 27 4 4 4.41 49 0 49.0 41 24 7 28 60 4.30
Collin Kober R 25 3 3 4.48 47 0 68.3 68 34 10 27 64 4.39
Aaron Northcraft R 30 4 5 5.17 29 9 71.3 73 41 13 33 67 5.06
Arodys Vizcaíno R 29 2 2 4.46 38 0 34.3 31 17 5 18 38 4.43
Tommy Milone L 33 6 9 5.36 26 14 122.7 135 73 28 30 108 5.12
Matt Tenuta L 26 3 3 4.63 46 1 58.3 59 30 8 26 49 4.62
Art Warren R 27 2 2 4.57 40 0 41.3 38 21 5 27 42 4.68
Chasen Bradford R 30 1 2 4.65 35 0 40.7 45 21 6 11 27 4.58
Mike Wright R 30 4 5 5.38 34 12 92.0 100 55 18 31 80 5.00
Anthony Misiewicz L 25 7 9 5.58 25 24 117.7 133 73 26 38 95 5.41
Matt Festa R 27 2 2 5.09 33 0 40.7 41 23 9 16 42 5.17
Tyler Danish R 25 4 6 5.62 25 12 83.3 97 52 14 36 47 5.53
Ljay Newsome R 23 7 11 5.69 28 28 142.3 169 90 38 19 114 5.45
Jonathan Niese L 33 4 7 5.75 21 18 101.7 118 65 22 37 72 5.67
Nestor Cortes Jr. L 25 5 6 4.86 36 0 103.7 105 56 17 42 102 4.56
Christian Bergman R 32 6 8 5.79 22 18 101.0 119 65 22 29 67 5.55
Brian Ellington R 29 1 2 5.40 39 0 40.0 36 24 6 34 47 5.33
Sean Nolin L 30 4 6 5.89 19 16 81.0 90 53 18 35 68 5.69
Darin Gillies R 27 3 4 5.37 41 1 60.3 62 36 12 27 58 5.19
Tyler Cloyd R 33 3 6 6.43 16 12 70.0 83 50 18 26 55 6.07
Reggie McClain R 27 5 8 6.10 34 13 100.3 119 68 23 35 72 5.77
Kyle Wilcox R 26 3 5 6.34 43 1 55.3 50 39 9 63 67 6.29
Raymond Kerr L 25 4 8 6.44 33 14 86.7 98 62 17 60 68 6.24
Andrew Moore R 26 5 8 6.36 26 21 116.0 141 82 31 36 78 6.24

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Marco Gonzales 6.9 2.4 1.2 6.1% 18.0% .302 101 99 2.3 Claude Osteen
Yusei Kikuchi 7.5 3.2 1.3 8.2% 19.0% .297 94 106 1.5 Bill Wight
Justus Sheffield 8.2 4.6 1.2 11.2% 20.1% .305 90 111 1.1 Nate Robertson
Zac Grotz 8.0 2.5 1.0 6.7% 21.0% .296 111 90 1.1 Tom Morgan
Steven Moyers 5.7 2.0 1.5 5.1% 14.5% .301 88 113 1.0 Scott McGregor
Logan Gilbert 8.5 3.0 1.6 7.7% 21.9% .292 90 111 0.9 Aaron Cook
Ricardo Sanchez 6.6 3.1 1.3 7.7% 16.6% .306 89 113 0.9 Jeff Mutis
Penn Murfee 7.9 3.6 1.3 9.0% 19.8% .301 93 108 0.9 Ed Linke
Nick Margevicius 7.1 2.2 1.5 5.6% 18.1% .310 89 112 0.9 Bobby Livingston
Justin Dunn 8.8 3.9 1.5 9.8% 22.1% .301 88 114 0.8 John Johnstone
Austin L. Adams 14.4 5.4 0.8 14.1% 37.6% .301 135 74 0.8 Ryne Duren
Nabil Crismatt 8.5 2.9 1.8 7.4% 21.7% .299 85 118 0.6 Tim Dillard
Taylor Guilbeau 8.6 4.0 0.6 10.2% 22.1% .297 117 85 0.6 Dave Tomlin
Sam Tuivailala 9.6 3.7 0.9 9.6% 24.9% .300 116 86 0.6 Bob Grim
Sam Delaplane 11.6 4.1 1.2 10.6% 30.0% .299 113 89 0.5 Manny Delcarmen
Kendall Graveman 6.1 2.8 1.4 7.1% 15.5% .299 87 115 0.5 Don Nottebart
Wade LeBlanc 7.4 2.4 1.7 6.2% 19.3% .294 87 115 0.5 Watty Clark
Jack Anderson 6.7 3.5 0.8 8.9% 16.9% .295 108 92 0.4 Jim York
Carl Edwards Jr. 12.2 5.6 1.0 14.5% 31.5% .277 106 95 0.3 Mark Acre
Wyatt Mills 8.6 3.4 1.0 8.9% 22.2% .295 104 96 0.3 Dave Pagan
Erik Swanson 9.0 3.1 1.8 7.8% 23.0% .295 84 119 0.3 Bobby Keppel
Aaron Fletcher 8.6 3.7 1.2 9.5% 22.0% .295 99 101 0.3 Pat Clements
Joey Gerber 10.4 4.9 1.2 12.3% 26.1% .293 105 95 0.2 Matt Ryan
Ian McKinney 8.0 5.4 1.3 13.0% 19.3% .297 81 123 0.2 Greg Kubes
Darren McCaughan 6.2 2.0 1.9 5.0% 15.9% .297 80 124 0.2 Dave Geeve
Matt Magill 10.7 4.0 1.4 10.2% 27.3% .298 100 100 0.2 Sean Green
Brandon Brennan 8.7 4.8 0.9 12.2% 22.0% .294 99 102 0.2 Bill Zuber
Austin Hutchison 7.0 4.4 1.4 10.7% 17.0% .305 81 124 0.1 Sean White
Connor Sadzeck 9.6 5.6 1.0 13.7% 23.5% .300 98 102 0.1 Sarge Connally
Phillips Valdez 7.2 4.0 1.5 9.8% 17.7% .301 82 121 0.1 Galen Cisco
Gerson Bautista 10.0 5.9 0.9 14.5% 24.6% .303 96 104 0.1 Anthony Chavez
Scott Boches 7.7 4.0 1.3 10.1% 19.3% .297 89 112 0.1 Larry Bearnarth
Yohan Ramirez 10.2 8.1 1.1 18.9% 23.8% .299 82 122 0.1 Ken Chase
Dan Altavilla 11.0 5.1 1.3 13.0% 27.9% .288 98 102 0.1 Mark Acre
Collin Kober 8.4 3.6 1.3 9.0% 21.4% .299 96 104 0.1 Robert Tenenini
Aaron Northcraft 8.5 4.2 1.6 10.3% 21.0% .297 83 120 0.1 John Montague
Arodys Vizcaino 10.0 4.7 1.3 11.8% 25.0% .292 97 104 0.1 Doug Sisk
Tommy Milone 7.9 2.2 2.1 5.7% 20.5% .299 80 124 0.0 Dave Schmidt
Matt Tenuta 7.6 4.0 1.2 10.0% 18.9% .295 93 108 0.0 Mike Cosgrove
Art Warren 9.1 5.9 1.1 14.3% 22.2% .295 94 106 0.0 Jim Duffalo
Chasen Bradford 6.0 2.4 1.3 6.2% 15.3% .298 93 108 0.0 Ron Taylor
Mike Wright 7.8 3.0 1.8 7.6% 19.7% .303 80 125 -0.1 Mike Bruhert
Anthony Misiewicz 7.3 2.9 2.0 7.3% 18.2% .301 77 130 -0.1 Heath Phillips
Matt Festa 9.3 3.5 2.0 9.0% 23.6% .294 85 118 -0.2 John Koronka
Tyler Danish 5.1 3.9 1.5 9.5% 12.4% .297 77 130 -0.2 Cristhian Martinez
Ljay Newsome 7.2 1.2 2.4 3.1% 18.7% .303 76 132 -0.3 Josh Towers
Jon Niese 6.4 3.3 1.9 8.1% 15.8% .299 75 134 -0.3 Andrew Lorraine
Nestor Cortes Jr. 8.9 3.6 1.5 9.2% 22.4% .303 89 113 -0.3 Jake Chapman
Christian Bergman 6.0 2.6 2.0 6.5% 15.0% .298 74 135 -0.4 Rick Langford
Brian Ellington 10.6 7.7 1.4 17.8% 24.6% .297 80 125 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Sean Nolin 7.6 3.9 2.0 9.6% 18.6% .299 73 137 -0.4 Rick Krivda
Darin Gillies 8.7 4.0 1.8 10.0% 21.6% .296 80 125 -0.5 Andy Nezelek
Tyler Cloyd 7.1 3.3 2.3 8.2% 17.3% .302 67 149 -0.8 R.A. Dickey
Reggie McClain 6.5 3.1 2.1 7.7% 15.9% .303 71 142 -0.9 Eddie Bonine
Kyle Wilcox 10.9 10.2 1.5 22.6% 24.0% .299 68 147 -1.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
Raymond Kerr 7.1 6.2 1.8 14.4% 16.3% .305 67 150 -1.1 Matt Coenen
Andrew Moore 6.1 2.8 2.4 6.9% 15.0% .296 68 148 -1.2 Ryan Cox

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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mikejunt
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mikejunt

Yikes those negative war full positions. A rough time, that.

Glad to hear the prospects are actually promising.