Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 12/18/18

Meg Rowley: Hello all!

Meg Rowley: And welcome to the chat. It is very nice to be back here with you after our jaunt to Vegas.

Dann: Why would anyone, let alone a contender like the Cubs, invest 2 years and $5m into Daniel Descalso, who can’t play shortstop, when Ian Happ and David Bote each offer basically the same flexibility with considerably more upside at less cost?

Meg Rowley: Because he’s made some adjustments that make him much more interesting, everyone needs a bench, and it isn’t very much money.

Meg Rowley: Jeff’s piece on this is good: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-quietest-swing-changer…

pelkey: Since you’re a Vegas expert now, what would you say the odds are haniger gets traded?

Meg Rowley: I’d still be surprised if they do it, but I think the odds are higher now than they were say, three weeks ago. That’s less a Vegas thing than their plan coming into focus. But I think they’d need to be pretty well blown away.

Roma Condesa: Hi Meg.  Are you concerned that teams’ increasingly sophisticated informational-gathering player development tools (like wearables, for example) violate player privacy, and do you think the Union will make this an issue during negotiations?

Meg Rowley: There are a couple different buckets of labor issues I’m worried about and in terms of “things that the Union should get out ahead of better than they have” this is at the top.

Meg Rowley: As Sheryl noted in her piece on the subject, other players’ unions have taken proactive steps to hem in the possible uses of wearable tech, of which there are many, many of which are very useful to players.

Meg Rowley: But it also constitutes a changed condition in the relationship between ownership and the players.

hi: Are the mets one Harper/Machado away from being a legitimate WS contender?

Meg Rowley: It sure would help a lot! Probably more than that, but either of those guys would make me sit up and take notice.

Old Timer: If the A’s settle this offseason for “leftovers,” especially in pitching, can we expect serious 2019 regression and the high probability of a missed playoff opportunity?  The A’s can’t seriously be expecting rookies like Puk and Luzardo to be second half saviors, can they?

Meg Rowley: A lot comes down to pitching health. I doubt the offense will perform at quite the level it did last year, and they haven’t brought back Laurie. They’re an interesting team, but the rotation is problem.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Now that the Mets have decided to keep Syndergaard, have signed an all-star catcher, and look like they’ll have a bullpen that won’t give me ulcers, I am SUO

Meg Rowley: I don’t feel like there is a clear front runner in that division yet, but all it would take is one really big move to change my mind.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Keith Law said he ran into you during the winter meetings.  You two should do a podcast about things outside of baseball. Just an idea.

Meg Rowley: One of the best things about Winter Meetings, indeed the best thing, is getting to see friends who live far away, and also, meet people who you’ve interacted with online but never met in person. Really nice to finally meet Keith. We mostly talked about the food scene in Seattle, but that was nice!

hooha: With the pretty damning Marlins prospect list unveiled today, are you surprised the Marlins seem to be targeting major league ready talent for Realmuto?

Meg Rowley: It isn’t a strong system. Great names, but not especially good players. I think they’re looking at who is going to populate the next young core. That can be achieved in a variety of ways, but mostly, they have to stick the landing. This is their big move, and as Eric and Kiley noted, the org is in a much better position to make moves in terms of front office staff than they were a year ago.

Meg Rowley: Gotta get someone worthwhile.

carrotjuice: Do you think Descalso ends up hitting more like Steamer projects him (94 wRC+) or ZiPS (85 OPS+)? I guess an additional option could be “the swing change sticks and he’s an above average hitter in 2019”?

Meg Rowley: I guess I’d land somewhere right around 100, with possible upside if the swing change sticks and helps. We’ve seen guys get temporary relief before only to have their numbers settle back closer to their historical averages.

Nick: Hi Meg! Here’s a list of 2018 Indians who probably won’t be back next season: Brantley, Donaldson, Rajai, Melky, Chinsenhall, Guyer, Gomes, Yonder, Encarnacion, Yandy, Allen, Miller!! 🙁

Do you think this means the front office will be able to invest in FA outfield help without trading Kluber/Bauer?  Any further purely cost-cutting measures are going to be really difficult to stomach.

Meg Rowley: What do I want them to do? Spend some money on the outfield and keep their pitchers. What do I think they’ll do? Probably not that. As a fan, I would find this approach uniquely frustrating.

Red: Let’s say Houston was able to land Nelson Cruz, play Brantley in the outfield, and use Tucker to acquire Realmuto. What’s the over/under on how many games they lose this season, like, ten?

Meg Rowley: They were pretty incredible last year and still managed to lose more than that, but yeah, they’re the class of that division for sure

Meg Rowley: Now, I thought they would snap up Cruz and they haven’t, but I like the Brantley move very, very much.

Mike: You’ve been tapped to produce Lifetime’s newest Christmas movie about Christmas and baseball. Is the main character A) An under-performing GM who’s been given one last shot to improve his roster during the Winter Meetings B) A struggling veteran who heads to a Latin American Winter League to impress scouts, or C) A young Catcher who changes his off-season workout/diet routine to ensure a healthy, productive season?

Meg Rowley: All of the Lifetime Christmas movies feature romantic subplots so probably B or C, because they have more obvious non-work environments to be in?

Josh: Would a true salary cap, similar to the NFL, help or hurt baseball? What are the biggest impediments that prevent a salary cap?

Meg Rowley: I mean, the sport effectively has one now.

tb.25: With the NHL expansion, will we soon lose you to hockey graphs.com?

Meg Rowley: Nah. I love baseball more than some members of my family. Plus I don’t know hockey nearly well enough to talk about it, or write about it.

Nick: I know it’s not super common, but why do players ever agree to deferred salary?

Meg Rowley: I’d imagine it’s a matter of personal risk tolerance– I imagine for a lot of them, the idea of guaranteed money long after they’ve played is a comfort. They lose out on the ability to invest that money now, of course, but they also are doing pretty well as it stands.

Guest: So the Astros could really use some starters right?

Meg Rowley: It wouldn’t hurt!

Meg Rowley: As it stands, I imagine they’d stretch McHugh back out again, but there are definitely innings to go around.

asinwreck: Does Jerry DiPoto get Winter Meetings MVP for completing a trade while hospitalized?

Meg Rowley: I mean, I get why it had to happen, but I’m not sure we want to valorize this sort of stuff. It’s good to have boundaries around work, though I suppose Winter Meetings doesn’t really allow for that.

Meg Rowley: Of course, I am also prettty really bad at that, though never to the point of working from the hospital.

Dave: Are you more excited about hockey in Seattle or Seahawks making the playoffs?

Meg Rowley: Hockey, I suppose?

Meg Rowley: I’ve experienced the Seahawks in the playoffs before. It is sometimes fun, but often a bummer. Hockey will be totally new!

Dave: I would listen to a Meg and Keith political podcast

Meg Rowley: My mentions aren’t enough of a mess already?

Guest: Per the Depth Charts, the Nationals have a pretty large lead in total team WAR for 2019. I feel like you’re selling them short a little.

Meg Rowley: They are a very good team! I just meant that there is likely to be further movement within the division. I doubt any of these rosters are complete yet.

Meg Rowley: There could be a fair amount of shifting between now and opening day.

KD: I *think* the CWS will sign Machado.  What % to you put him at signing with the Sox?

Meg Rowley: I think I have an article I really want to write that only works if he signs there, but I don’t think that will actually factor into his decision making.

Meg Rowley: I still think that I think he ends up a Yankee.

Meg Rowley: I think that’s what I think.

Mandy is 92% Fresh: Do the Astros make another move for a hitter (e.g., Cruz), or do they focus on adding another arm and wait until mid-season to see if they need another bat?

Meg Rowley: They might well do both, but I’d imagine that pitching and catcher are higher on their list of priorities at the moment.

Meg Rowley: Chirinos is a fine pick up, but I’d think they want to do better there.

Enter Sandman: Rivera is my favorite player, and overrated though RPs can be, I’m very happy for his imminent election. Can anyone else maintain that level for that long of a career? When will we see someone do that? Even Kimbrel is wobbling already and he’s barely 30.

Meg Rowley: I think there will probably be another like Rivera at some point. I’m not sure that someone is in baseball right this minute.

KD: Just a comment:  I may speak for a lot of the readers of FG when I say that having Kiley and Eric aboard has really elevated the level of my understanding about scouting, value of prospects, trades involving prospects, etc.   They write with the goal of wanting the reader to learn, not impressing the reader with their level of knowledge.

Meg Rowley: They’re both very, very good at what they do. I’m really pleased with and proud of all our work at the site right now, and they’re a definite bright spot.

Hank: First round fantasy pick you’re staying away from?

Meg Rowley: I think I am officially retiring from fantasy. Last year I played for a few weeks after being gifted Trout, and then kinda maybe sort forgot to set my lineups for a few weeks, and never recovered.

tacopocket: Mets fan here (sad I know).   I love the ramos signing.   Do you think that was light on both years and annual value???   I thought he could’ve done a lot better.   Also – i heard arguments that grandal is better but considering the pick you’d have to give up, i think ramos is actually a better fit for the mets (because they need all the help they can get with their system/prospects).  What are your thoughts?

Meg Rowley: I liked the signing a lot. I think the concerns around his health are pretty evident in both years and Annual value.

Meg Rowley: I mostly was pleased that they decided to spend some money rather than further deplete the farm for Realmuto. Realmuto is great, but there’s more than one way to build a roster.

The Old Buccaneer: Is Castellanos that much more valuable than CJ Cron where Detroit is holding out for a good prospect while Tampa Bay just waived Cron?

Meg Rowley: Yes, I think so.

Meg Rowley: He’s younger, and isn’t a free agent until 2020, and has a more consistent track record as a hitter. His defense is terrifying but then again, Cron’s isn’t amazing either.

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure how good a prospect they’ll get but Detroit can afford to wait

Anuj: Shouldn’t the Angels be all over Realmuto, given their drastic weakness at C and his years of control coinciding with Trout’s, and can they make a deal without Jo Adell?

Meg Rowley: I think if they’re going to deploy prospect capital, at time when their system is finally recovering, they’d probably use it on pitching

Meg Rowley: Have you looked at the Angels pitching? It’s… not the best!

tacopocket: does the Brantley signing mean that the Astros will now send tucker in a realmuto trade?

Meg Rowley: Not necessarily. They certainly could, and it seems likely that is what it would take (plus some other pieces) to get him, but Brantley, while very good, still has some injury concern and is almost 32.

Meg Rowley: They still could obviously, but really good depth doesn’t suck either.

Curtis: IF Trout never plays in another postseason, is he a “winner”?

Meg Rowley: Yes.

Meg Rowley: This is not meant as a specific comment on Curtis, but I find it so amusing that one of our favorite pastimes seems to be coming up with ways to hobble or otherwise bring low the best player any of us are likely to watch.

Dan: Can you explain the new relationship b/w MLB and the “gaming” industry in light of recent SC ruling on sports betting?

Meg Rowley: A moment!

Meg Rowley: I would recommend reading this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-supreme-court-sports-betting-and-t…

Meg Rowley: and then this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/major-league-baseball-gambles-on-mgm-r…

khaaaan: Why doesn’t Brandon Nimmo get any respect? He was better than Harper last year, but people talk like he’s expendable

Meg Rowley: He doesn’t not get respect, I don’t think. He was dinged up a little at one point but he’s being talked about as worthy of inclusion in trade packages that would net big stars.

Meg Rowley: He just played his first real season in the bigs, but he was a well thought of prospect. This stuff takes a little while.

asking for a friend: Why don’t teams provide better access to nutrition and fitness for their minor league systems? Seems like it would be a small financial commitment for a massive gain in player development

Meg Rowley: More and more teams are getting smart about this, but that they aren’t all excellent at it is bizarre and pretty short sighted in my opinion.

Meg Rowley: It’s just such a bad way to be cheap, especially when the problem could be solved cheaply.

Home Run Trotsky: The 2019 HOF ballot is full of “steroid guys.” I’m assuming that it will be an interesting vote (albeit likely disappointing)  How long do you reckon it will take for these deserving guys linked to steroids to get into the hall if they are ever allowed at all?  When will the cloud dissipate? A hall without some of those names I grew up watching (steroids or not) would be the pits.

Meg Rowley: Jay Jaffe always makes a distinction between those who were likely users before there was a policy, but didn’t have a positive test, and those who are known to have used. I think that’s useful. I think as the writing corps turns over, and you have fewer BBWAA members who were personally lied to by these guys, you see a change. Selig getting in also matters a lot.

Meg Rowley: But I tend to agree. I would like the Hall to be less of an accolade and more of a museum. Like, baseball happened when I was a kid. How do you tell that story without Bonds and Clemens?

Whitty: Hey Meg, awesome job on MLB network! How nervous were you being on a panel with baseball writing legends like Stark and Gammons?

Meg Rowley: Thank you. I was very grateful to be distracted by the wind so that I didn’t think about it too much. TV is weird, but they were all really lovely, both to me and to all of our staff who went on that week.

Kevin: So Pollock is a good ballplayer who no one is talking a lot about with Brycechado still out there. Where do you see him landing, and at what kind of deal? He’s a more “typical” free agent age, but also has a ton of injury history.

Meg Rowley: Allow me a moment to look something up

Meg Rowley: I just wanted to make sure he wasn’t a Boras guy. I don’t think he’s being forgotten by teams, though there certainly are teams that are waiting because they’re in on Harper.

Meg Rowley: I know there was some stuff linking him to the Dodgers this morning; he’s make sense for the Braves. He’d make sense for a lot of teams, honestly.

Anuj: Given the current cheapness of Seager, Buehler, Bellinger, should the Dodgers be inclined to pull a Dombrowski and go for broke this year?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think we’re nearing the end of their window or anything.

2-D: An MLB game must be played in either a blizzard, down pour, or very dense fog. Which would you want to watch the most?

Meg Rowley: Down pour if it goes more than an inning because you’re the most likely to see?

Meg Rowley: I have an almost limitless capacity to experience real anxiety on behalf of strangers, so I don’t imagine I would enjoy it very much.

GSon: Hockey will become a drag.. Only a small percentage of the area populace will embrace it.. Nothing grabs the attention and wonder of small children and the conveyed love of baseball by the grandfathers and moms and dads and siblings.. Baseball does more to promote their game to the children of franchise cities than ANY OTHER SPORT. Thoughts?..

Meg Rowley: Baseball has the oldest viewership of any of the big professional sports. I think the sport is healthy, and set up to keep making money, but its viewership is pretty old, and soccer and basketball are pretty popular with young kids.

carrotjuice: Minor correction:  Castellanos will be a free agent after 2019 according. Does that change your answer much in the Cron/Castellanos comparison?

Meg Rowley: Apologies, I meant he is one in 2020, and no.

Meg Rowley: He’s a better player.

trevise-en: Your thoughts now that the Orioles are no longer ‘Hyding’ their new manager?

Meg Rowley: oh good grief.

Ryan: When will noted Patriot Dayn Perry be appearing on the Podcast again?

Meg Rowley: Perhaps some day. I’m not sure why people assume it will be at all the same though. It could still be wonderful. But it wouldn’t be the same.

Fritz Ferter: Do you think Jeters decision to hold on to Realmuto in 2018 was a good move?

Meg Rowley: When you look at what they got in trade for the other pieces they moved, yes.

CFH: It seems like people who criticize analytics have more of a problem with the changes prescribed (more home runs, walks, relief pitchers) than analytics per se; would the league do anything to address these changes like larger ballparks or smaller pitching rosters, and do you think that would encourage more traditionalists to embrace advanced stats?

Meg Rowley: I mean, if they end up banning the shift (which I still don’t think they’ll do) it would be a nod in that direction, but I don’t think any interventions they make will be in service of swaying a side to analytics so much as embracing a particular aesthetic.

STL Dave: Is there a lot of – come back to me when other stuff fails – GM chatter going on?

Meg Rowley: There’s a lot of everything going on. I think it’s easy to miss just how many conversations happen in parallel this time of year.

Meg Rowley: Alright friends, I need to get going.

Meg Rowley: Editing calls. Thanks for all the great questions, and my apologies for what I didn’t get to

Meg Rowley: I hope everyone has a great week.