Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/25/19

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: It is nice to be back after a little vacation break.

Richard L: Hi Meg,

Billy Beane: Hi Meg.

Meg Rowley: Hi there.

Tim I: Hi Meg, 12 tm 5×5 standard: Moncada for Nola straight up? I can afford to trade offense and need SP. Thanks,

Meg Rowley: Still not a fantasy chat!

Vogelbach for HR Derby: Spread the Vogelbach fun to everyone!

Meg Rowley: I have no issue with this. It is also wild to think, but uhhhh he really ought to be the Mariners All-Star rep. That’s more than some about the Mariners, but it isn’t entirely about the Mariners.

Bo: So let me get this straight… Two catchers were arguing over pitch framing?

Meg Rowley: I have often wondered about the psychology of fans of teams with good-framing catchers. They are no less likely, at least in my experience, to boo the ump when they think a call was wrong.

Meg Rowley: I suppose that it isn’t too different for players. We are all of us inclined to attribute our success to skill and our rivals’ successes to luck.

Bo: Who will be the Braves’ biggest threat in the NL East?

Meg Rowley: I’m still inclined to think the Phillies are likely to be the biggest issue because I, for whatever reason, have more confidence in the likelihood that they add.

Meg Rowley: Our projections say the Nationals, but only by a few games.

Mike: This is now 1.5 seasons of the Nationals significantly underperforming their true talent.  In looking at the two seasons together, nothing specific jumps out (injuries, underperformance, etc.).  What is going on?

Meg Rowley: Some of it has been injuries. Some of it has been bullpens that aren’t that good. Some of it has been selling off bullpen pieces for… reasons?

pelkey: How can this be the Mets’ reality year after year?

Meg Rowley: The Mets are a mess. They are total, weird, could come out of a TV writers room mess. They were also in the World Series so recently! Just very, very recently.

Meg Rowley: I mean, the answer is, they have very bad ownership, and it is pretty wild that that ownership has been allowed to persist, and make weird hires, and allow this culture to hang around.

Meg Rowley: But also, just so recently in the World Series.

Meg Rowley: They’re a mess. Other teams are tragedies.

JayVee: Are the Padres out of it? if so are they buyers or sellers at this point?

Meg Rowley: I think San Diego knows when their real window is, and that it isn’t necessarily now. I can’t imagine them doing anything that jeopardizes the real window, which might well mean selling if there players to be had who will help with that window.

Turd Furgeson: A few episodes ago on “Wildly Effective”, you stated that it was “icky/gross” that the Cubs would spend money saved on Zobrist’s absence for Kimbrel. Given this was a voluntary move on Zobrist’s end and completely independent from the Cubs, can you explain why you feel this way? The Cubs shouldn’t be financially restricted/punished by something out of their control, especially when they can improve the team on-field.  Seems smug.

Meg Rowley: Because I don’t believe that Zobrist’s contract in any way restricted their ability to sign Kimbrel earlier, nor do I think his absence is what facilitated the signing. Zobrist is going through some gnarly stuff in his personal life. I’m not saying they can’t spend that money, but the justification was icky, particularly because I don’t believe it to be true.

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure how not wanting a difficult moment in a stranger’s life to be talked about that way is smug, but to each their own, Turd.

Trevor: Setting aside the novelty and logistical issues involved in the Tampa Bay-Montreal proposal, how did MLB decide on Montreal as the Rays’ second city?  Isn’t it more reasonable to try a *different* city where baseball hasn’t *already* failed once before?  Why not try somewhere like Portland that has been building up legitimate interest in a team?

Meg Rowley: There is demand for a franchise in Montreal. I doubt the group that is looking to bring a team to Portland would be satisfied with a half season of home games. Honestly, I don’t thinking that *any* city will be satisfied with that, but…

JP Crawford: So, am I good now? SSS?

Meg Rowley: You’re good right now. I’m encouraged that you might be good for longer than right now. I am not convinced of that. But I am encouraged.

Rich K: Who do you think will end up closing for the Cardinals with Hicks out?  Gant had been great before blowing up this weekend, and Carlos Martinez closed successfully at the end of last year but is injury-prone.  They also have Andrew Miller, but he’s left-handed and not as dominant as in years past. . . .

Meg Rowley: I think it’ll probably end up being a mix. I’m not sure where they are going to land on the C-Mart starting question, but I imagine he’ll get some 9th innings.

TankforTork: How quickly do the Giants need to start selling in order to be somewhat legitimate #1 overall pick contenders?

Meg Rowley: No time like the present.

Alonso: Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman: which one is the best trade target, and which one has the biggest impact on the post-season race?

Meg Rowley: Boyd imo. They’re all close in age, Boyd has more years of control so it’s even less of a for this year sort of an acquisition, he’s been the best of the bunch, and you don’t have to deal with actively acquiring Trevor Bauer’s personality (who hasn’t been as effective as a pitcher anyhow).

Grant: How much credence do you put in Dipoto’s suggestion that the Mariners’ rebuild (reimagining?) will take only 12-18 months?

Meg Rowley: I’m very encouraged by the way the farm is trending (just like, pretend Justus Sheffield is fine for the purposes of this answer) but how many guys on the current 25 man are part of the next good team? When I was on vacation, the M’s instagram wished Kikushi a happy birthday and look, I hope he had one, but my first thought was that he is already 28.

Meg Rowley: I know the org has been talking about their recent trades that have moved salary in 2020 and 2021 as being about having flexibility to spend. And I guess we’ll see, but I think we’d be right to wonder, given the rash of extensions uhhh just who they are anticipating signing. There will always be someone, but they aren’t snagging Mike Trout. Mike has made his choice. They just still feel very thin.

Fred: LeMahieu.  Please explain.

Meg Rowley:

Logan Allen’s Run: I am a Red Sox fan and very annoyed by the two straight off/travel days ahead of the 2 games in London. That is all thank you.

Meg Rowley: I think it is really nice that your life allows these frustrations. I am not snarking. That’s a nice life!

Ralph Rowdie : Meg, please, tell us your thoughts on the Montreal Bay ExRays idea.

Meg Rowley: It’s a bad one.

Meg Rowley: It’s inconvenient for the humans involved. It’s a crummy way to treat fans in both places.

Meg Rowley: It feels very strange to root for different, richer billionaires who’ll just build a new ballpark and spend money.

Meg Rowley: Baseball needs Steve Ballmers: A TED Talk

CeddyBReady: I’d like to request that you speak with Eric and Kiley about going thru and updating each prospect with a FUN rating.  I’d like it to be called FUN.  I’d also like it to just stand for FUN.

Meg Rowley: Those maniacs already don’t sleep enough, and you want them to do more work?

Cespedes U Bum: Don’t even mention the W.S. team, it was built by a competent GM who HATES the wilpons

Meg Rowley: We still have to acknowledge it’s place in the recent history of the franchise, no?

Meg Rowley: its*

CeddyBReady: I still fail to see how the Mets are a mess.  I mean it’s just a bunch of good players that don’t win enough games.  The drama only more pronounced because they’re in a large visible market.  If this was happening in Seattle or Denver, it would go com..plete..ly… un… noticed?…?..

Meg Rowley: I think that if a pitcher went at a reporter in Seattle or Denver that we’d all notice?

Meg Rowley: I think if a manager cited Billy Martin (Literally Billy Martin!) in his explanation for his behavior we’d all sit up and notice regardless of the city?

v2micca: The fan that ran out on the field and got to hug Cody Bellinger seems pretty content with her lot in life.  What percentage of you disaproves, vs. what percertage is just slightly jealous.

Meg Rowley: I am not at all jealous. All of me disapproves.

Meg Rowley: Are… are you under the impression that I harbor a barely restrained desire to hug baseball players? This is my job, dude.

Joe: Is there any good reason the Brewers haven’t called up Hiura yet? Seems they have an obvious need with an obvious solution. They’ve received a lot of praise the last couple of years for being willing to be aggressive to try to win, so it seems that much stranger that they’re content with their current setup.

Meg Rowley: I find it very curious and a little annoying. Especially because, if I’m not mistaken, Shaw still has options? So they don’t even have to DFA him.

Matt VW: Follow up: if the Mets are just a mess, what teams do you consider to be tragedies?

Meg Rowley: Hi, I am a Mariners fan!

Stan: If the Rays do split time between Montreal and Tampa Bay can they change their name to the Frequent Flyers?

A dude : Who do you favor in a seven game series between the Astros and the Yankees? (Assuming both teams are fully healthy)

Meg Rowley: Astros, because I like their starting pitching more.

Ralph Rowdie : Do you think there is truth to the Yankees want Scherzer rumor?

Meg Rowley: Do they want him? I mean sure. They’d be silly not to! How much they do to get him is the question. And I’m just not super clear on how available he actually is.

Jason N: When the balls in AAA ball are this juiced, what’s the impact to player evaluation and development?

Meg Rowley: This is a good question that a lot of v. smart people are fretting over.

Janet Reno: is scott kingery the best 2nd baseman in the NL East once he takes over the position full time? (Well aware he hasnt been playing there much this year but general understanding is he will be there in the future)

Meg Rowley: No, but in the top five.

Meg Rowley: Believe in Ketel Marte imo.

bombilla: Are you at all surprised by DJ Lemahieu’s success in pinstripes?

Meg Rowley: At all? Sure. I thought 2017 was more his level, though I didn’t understand why people were so down on that move in the offseason, since depth is good! I didn’t expect this. I expected him to be useful.

Roger: Re: NL East: The Phillies ranked 20th in Fangraphs’ most recent farm system valuation, and FA options like Keuchel and Kimbrel are obviously off the table now.  What sort of addition do you see them actually making?

Meg Rowley: Could take on salary, and seem very unlikely to sell off, whereas the Nats might, though again, I’m not sure how real a possibility that is.

Logan Allen’s Run: Who would you rather have on your team for the rest of his career: Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez?

Meg Rowley: Soto. Alvarez has been very impressive. Alvarez has played 12 major league games.

Dan: Way-too-early World Series picks?

Meg Rowley: Dodgers vs. Astros

Tom: Ketel Marte isn’t in the NL East last i checked

Meg Rowley: Whoops! Sorry, just read that as NL.

Meg Rowley: Still not the best, but top three now.

LLW: What were the best and worst parts of your twitter vacation?

Meg Rowley: The best part was being off of twitter, and the worst part was the first hour back on twitter when I didn’t understand one single god damn thing anyone was talking about on twitter.

Hunter: What do you think is the most fun division in baseball? NL Central because the teams are closest in record? NL West because several fun teams (Dodgers, Padres, Rockies)? What is the least fun division?

Meg Rowley: Most fun for me is probably the NL West. Least fun is the AL Central.

Tom: Would Bumgarner put the Cardinals in the lead in the NL Central?

Meg Rowley: No.

Cito’s Mustache: I miss Carson. Do you stay in touch with him? I hope he’s enjoying his job with my Blue Jays.

Meg Rowley: We do! Seems to be doing quite well. I miss him, too. He’s a good egg, that Carson.

Screen this: It being that you see no difference between sitting behind a screen and not, I assume you still watch games at home on a Sony Trinitron?

Meg Rowley: Is this supposed to be a netting slam? Anti-netting people are just the strangest sort. If it is not a netting slam, well, then you have my apologies.

Gregg: Glad to have you back!  Your answer to the Kingery question was funnier when it looked like you were saying he was a top-five 2nd baseman in the five-team NL East. 🙂

Meg Rowley: The ol’ noggin is still coming up to speed.

Monroe: On the podcast you spend a lot of time bemoaning the lack of ethics and morals shown by today’s front offices, yet they are merely using  the tools they have to extract value, largely based on Sabermetric principles. How complicit should the Sabermetric community feel when good players are kept down to add a year of team control or young players are extended on seemingly lowball long term contracts?

Meg Rowley: I think grappling with the role analytics has played in creating the current labor environment, or at least supplying front office personnel with the vocabulary they need for those conversations, is really important but I will say again that we should not absolve them of their moral responsibility. For one thing, nothing says you have to act on incentives. For another, ownership built this system. They got exactly what they wanted in the CBA negotiations.

Chris: Santana leads the league in RBIs. Shouldn’t he be the mariners all star rep?

Meg Rowley: No.

Desperate Times: could you refrain from dropping GDs in the chat?

Meg Rowley: Eh, I’ll try but maybe not hard?

Meg Rowley: Alright pals, I need to get going. Thanks for all the questions, and sorry for what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: If you’re going to be in the Cleveland area the weekend before the All-Star game, please snag a ticket to our event!

Meg Rowley: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Meg Rowley: We’ll have some Very Exciting News about participants in the next few days, so don’t miss out.

Meg Rowley: Until next week!