Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/27/18

Meg Rowley: Good morning! As you might have guessed, I am not Kiley. We will return to our regularly scheduled programming next week, but for now, a Wednesday Meg chat!

yojiveself: imagine if you could start MLB all over again.  No history, no records.  How many games a season do you want?  To me, a 100 game season would be perfect.  Start mid-April, WS in late September.  Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: Dropping all the way down to 100 feels very drastic. Now you might say, hey, that’s because you’re used to baseball as it is, and this is meant to be a question about baseball as it should be.

Meg Rowley: To which I would say, well yeah, but 100 is too few.

Meg Rowley: I think something in the 150s allows you to skirt some of the really yucky weather on the front end, but keeps October the same.

Meg Rowley: There’s something about crisp air during playoff baseball I’d be loathe to do. Also, the sample size is nice.

Jeries: When Paul Spider does a chat, does he have a keyboard for each of his 8 legs or does he just use one?

Meg Rowley: He has eight legs but just the one brain. At some point, you can’t think quickly enough to do all that typing. Even as a spider who knows how to use a computer.

David: Despite hoping it would go better, I feel pretty good about how the mariners did during their brutal stretch. What do you think?

Meg Rowley: I think that I could have timed writing about them almost for sure totally making the playoffs a little bit better!

Meg Rowley: But generally, I agree with you.

Meg Rowley: Stretches like that are going to show the issues with the team. There are issues! But their ability to stay afloat and maintain their distance from the next WC contender is why I still think I think they’ll be in that WC game.

Meg Rowley: I wonder who we’ll assign to cover that game? I’d like the Mariners to be in the playoffs for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is just to see what and how much I feel about it.

Georgie: What are your opinions on what the Rays have been doing? A lot better than what most in media were saying and pitching numbers look impressive last month and a half against brutal schedule.

Meg Rowley: I think that as a strategy of playing baseball, it has worked better than I thought it would. And if you’re a fan who is invested in weird stuff or strategies, you might think this is all very cool! But I also think that we all exist at least a bit on the lunatic fringe of baseball appreciation. So I also worry that this is bummer and a half for a lot of their fans.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Brewers at the trade deadline: Big splash, or marginal upgrades, and bank on Jimmy Nelson returning and providing the SP boost they crave?

Meg Rowley: I could certainly see them making a big move. They have pieces to do it. And they’ve demonstrated a willingness to do so in the past.

Meg Rowley: We have their playoff odds at about 58%. I’d want to tighten up the rotation.

James: Why doesn’t Alex Bregman get more talk? He is on pace for a 6 WAR season and has more walks than strikeouts.

Meg Rowley: I think it is purely a result of the embarrassment of riches that team has and his relative newness compared to guys like Altuve

Meg Rowley: But we should talk about him. We should talk about him a lot!

Meg Rowley: I think the other thing is that the AL has other very good third basemen. But Bregman is the fourth most valuable 3B in baseball by our WAR.

Bork: Will Sergio Romo be the next pitcher injured by punching an inanimate object? Dude’s a moron.

Meg Rowley: We would all be happier as people if we were capable of letting petty slights go. The problem is, petty slights are easier to do a little something about than big slights are. So sometimes we fail at doing what is best for us.

2-D: Is Jose Ramirez going to end up with 40+ jacks this season? He had 13 in 335 minor league games!

Meg Rowley: There is a compelling argument to be made (which I don’t have to make– congrats Kiley!) that when we do our trade value series that he ought to be at the top.

Meg Rowley: But yes, he thumps now. He’s been thumping. He thumps!

Cool: The Erie Seawolves recently were promoting a hot dog with a cotton candy bun and Nerds as a condiment. What would Nietzsche have said about this?

Meg Rowley: That we don’t deserve to persist as a species.

Formerly the Smasher: Comment on how Dayton Moore makes players watch seminars on the evils of porn but is defending Luke Heimlich?

Meg Rowley: I think that trial balloon went as well as it deserved to. I think for him to falsely claim that this is an issue the family has “dealt with” shows an indifference to Heimlich’s victim’s experience and wellbeing that Moore should feel very badly about personally.

Meg Rowley: This isn’t the biggest problem with what Moore said, but if I were Jarrod Dyson, I would be pissed as hell that my minor league PED suspension was mentioned in the same conversation as Heimlich’s child molestation conviction.

Meg Rowley: I would encourage you to read Jeff Passan’s piece from today: https://sports.yahoo.com/luke-heimlich-case-one-baseball-teams-pursuit…

Meg Rowley: It’s an excellent example of how to responsibly and compassionately report on a very difficult subject, and is particularly important coming from a man with such a big platform.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Having two relievers on the field makes for great GIFs and Fangraphs articles, but yesterday’s top of the 9th for the Rays had three pitching changes, which I need to run by Sheryl but I think is outlawed by the Geneva Convention. Should Manfred take away warmup pitches your second time pitching in an inning or is this going to be too infrequent to matter?

Meg Rowley: I think the time limit we already have for changes is fine, and you are doing a different physical activity.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think it happens so often as to matter a whole lot.

Vslyke: The A’s went into this season with obvious holes in their rotation, and did… basically nothing. Is that ownership team ever going to spend real money?

Meg Rowley: In their defense, they did have a few guys they were counting on seeing get hurt. In your defense, yeah, it’s annoying. It’s amazing how they always seem to hang around. Imagine what they could do if they spent more!

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Twice this year, we’ve seen relief pitchers get switched to other positions so as to bring them back onto the mound later in the same inning. Does this have any recent precedent? I can’t remember a time I’ve ever witnessed this happening to begin with, but it’s entirely possible I just haven’t paid close enough attention.

Meg Rowley: The Waxahachie Swap isn’t that common, but it is common enough, at least over the games history, that Rob Neyer gave it a name.

Meg Rowley: It will probably not shock you to learn that Russell Carleton wrote an interesting piece on whether it is tactically worth it https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/32527/baseball-therapy…

Chris: Should Brad Hand be traded?

Meg Rowley: yes

Chris: Should the Padres sell high on their relievers?

Meg Rowley: yes!

Chris: When do the Padres begin their competition

Meg Rowley: I’d imagine, pretty soon.

Nick: Was the Mariners recent trip to Boston and New York a testament to how far apart the Yankees and Red Sox are from everyone else or how overrated the Mariners are?

Meg Rowley: Overrated is an imprecise term, but honestly, why can’t it be a little of both?

Karl: What do you make of Scherzer’s struggle to win games?

Meg Rowley: Allow me to look something up quickly

Meg Rowley: First, the Nationals are 12-5 in Scherzer starts.

Meg Rowley: Second, of the games they’ve lost, only one has been by more than two runs– that bad start he had early in the year in Atlanta.

Meg Rowley: So mostly, I wish I “struggled” like he does professionally.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Where do you stand on the Lindbergh Burrito Method? http://effectivelywild.wikia.com/wiki/Lindbergh_Burrito_Method

Meg Rowley: I like Ben very much, both as a human person and as a writer, and while I would not eat a burrito this way, I mostly just want Ben to be happy.

Guest: Twins are 7.5 GB off CLE and have 4% playoff odds. Think they sell any assets?

Meg Rowley: Maybeeee, though I would think they would be more minor pieces as they look ahead to 2019. So when they trade every one you can come back and say, “Oh Meg, you dumb dummy.”

John: Is Luis Severino the best AL starting pitcher?

Meg Rowley: In terms of results so far this season, yes, I think so. There are a number of other guys who I think are verrrrry close to him on a pure talent basis, but he’s just been a delight.

los doyers: why have all teams not fully adopted driveline/weighted ball practices? evidence just becomes clearer and clearer that its the future year after year

Meg Rowley: Teams have their own approaches, and their own medical staffs, and I don’t know that whether Driveline’s approach is the best one is a settled question. Which isn’t meant as a knock on what Kyle is doing.

Billy Beane: Prospects question for this prospects chat featuring Meg Rowley: Boy, some of these prospects are real young. You ever seen these young guys, Meg? Some of them seem like they’ll be real good at baseball. Some of them are ALREADY real good at baseball. Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: I agree that several very youthful baseball players are good at baseball. Some of them are VERY GOOD and ALREADY. Those are my thoughts.

Meg Rowley: Doesn’t this make you all appreciate Eric and Kiley? They can say like, so much more about that than I can. Though I maintain that my prospect name takes are very good.

yankinstl: Can we talk more about Luis Severino? What are the chances he wins the Cy this year?

Meg Rowley: I think getting better. There are voters who will be swayed by ERA, but wouldn’t you know it, his ERA is pretty good, too. I think the conversation will probably be him, Verlander, Kluber, and Sale, and I guess Bauer if he keeps this up.

Bo: Do you see the universal DH coming anytime soon?

Meg Rowley: I think it will take a while longer, but eventually yes. Pitchers are so bad at hitting and they are likely to get worse.

54: Meg what is the general sentiment about Cano in the Emerald City? Do you anticipate a warm welcome? If he struggles and then the team falls out of playoff position will M’s fans resent him for the next 100 years until his contract ends?

Meg Rowley: Not to speak for everyone, but to speak for everyone? I think it will be pretty positive. They’ve weathered his absence so far. I think if the team had fallen off a cliff when the suspension came down, it could have gotten very toxic, very quickly.

Kluber: I malfunctioned last night.  What happened?

Meg Rowley: [Extreme Janet from the Good Place voice] Not a robot.

Meg Rowley: (I was traveling and didn’t get to watch the game)

Harmony: Who has more trade value: Brad Hand or Blake Treinen? Each remains under team control through 2020 although Hand’s more expensive contract has a team option for 2021.

Meg Rowley: I’d think Hand based on track record.

HappyFunBall: Bregman is pretty much your classic not amazing at anything, but pretty good at EVERYTHING sort of player that often doesn’t get the superstar press they are due

Meg Rowley: I think this is a good point. We tend to get less excited about guys who are just solid, all-around players. I thought some of the defensive plays during the playoffs last year would help but they’re just so stacked in Houston, I think it is hard for his profile to get its due.

Jeff: All the best to Sandy Alderson. He was the only thing keeping us from GM Jeff Wilpon. I wish him a speedy recovery.

Meg Rowley: It is a good reminder in the midst of their nightmare season that there are many things that are much more important than this game.

Flex: Why hasn’t the MLB banned relievers from leaving the bullpen when the benches clear? That is the worst! Why don’t they just stay in the outfield and fight each other?

Meg Rowley: Because them running into the infield while having no intention of actually fighting is one of the few reliable bits of amusement in stupid baseball fights.

Britt: Which duo will end up hitting more home runs at the end of the year:  Stanton/Judge or Lindor/Ramirez?

Meg Rowley: Stanton and Judge, but it’ll be a little closer than you’d think.

kevinthecomic: How come everyone assumes that the staff ace is going to start the wildcard game, as in: the Mariners have a real chance in the WC against the Yankees/Red Sox because they get to start Paxton?  Isn’t it more likely (or at least as likely) that the Mariners need to use Paxton a day or two before the WC game just to get them in it and, as a result, hafta start Felix in the WC game?

Meg Rowley: I mean, if they maintain this sort of distance, they’ll be more likely to be able to work it so that Paxton starts.

Meg Rowley: And of course, it isn’t a given that they could line up Paxton for a must win 162. But yes, the stakes are always highest in the game you have to win, and you should, if possible, do all you can to win that game. That you might have to start Wade LeBlanc in an elimination game in New York is Future You’s problem. But hopefully for the Mariners and their fans, it isn’t quite that tight down the stretch.

Flex: Javy Baez is a top ___ player if he gains some semblance of plate discipline.

Meg Rowley: What’s that, a football for me to kick Lucy?

Bo: I understand the desire for teams to wait and see if they’re still in contention come July, but wouldn’t it benefit all involved to start dealing some of the bigger names soon?

Meg Rowley: I think there are definitely cases when teams looking to add would like to add sooner than later. We saw that with the Mariners. But I understand teams want to maximize return, and the more teams there are buying, the greater the odds you can do that.

Brandon Nimmo: Lot of talk about trading deGrom and Thor, but haven’t seen anyone mention Matz or Wheeler. Do they have any value?

Meg Rowley: They do, it’s just comparatively lesser value.

Meg Rowley: It of course depends on who is talking about it, but fans often like to discuss the biggest trades because the players who come back in those have a seemingly better chance of changing the direction of the franchise.

PM: Why as baseball fans are we always looking for the newest thing to be the best rather than appreciating the greatness that has been around for longer. So essentially why is the shiny new toy effect a thing

Meg Rowley: It is so fun to see something that you’ve never seen before.

Bread Gardner: A-Rod shirtless or Stanton shirtless. Pick one. Based solely on their famous pics of such.

Meg Rowley: As someone evaluating this purely for science, Stanton. He falls into the category of athlete I am not convinced is from Earth, but who may instead be from a special Athlete planet.

Ben: Which surprises you more, that none of the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals are in 1st place or that Matt Kemp has more more valuable both offensively and defensively than Bryce Harper?

Meg Rowley: Matt Kemp for sure. Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis matter so much to 2018 baseball. What a time to be alive.

v2micca: Given that much of their livelihood depends on the health of their hands, why do so many pitchers still stupidly punch walls?

Meg Rowley: It is such a bizarre thing. I understand when they put a hand out to try to catch a come backer. I mean, they shouldn’t do that either, but I get it. But punching walls is just goofy.

Audiorama: Hi Meg! Do pitchers with deception (Freddy Peralta!) as a main strength tend to flame out quicker than average?

Meg Rowley: Eh, I don’t know about quicker. Maybe on average, though there are guys who never really had velo and manage to stick around just forever.

Meg Rowley: I think that profile is less and less popular for teams, though.

Matt: I’m not complaining about free FG chats, at all – but in the future, a suggestion to the FG crew would be to announce, in some way, a change in schedule of the chats. Cancellations, roster shuffles, etc. I don’t have much to contribute to prospect chats and have no interest in Kiley’s chat (though he does great work!), but enjoy Meg Rowley chats.

Meg Rowley: We did tweet about it. Do you mean to tell me that you have a healthy relationship with being online and don’t see everyone of my tweets?

Meg Rowley: It’s a point well taken, though. We can do a better job reminding folks.

Meg Rowley: I used our trip to Denver as an opportunity to see my grandparents, and Kiley was kind enough to swap with me.

Shreve Balboni: What’s to stop MLB from making the very sensible baby-step of eliminating the DH just in interleague games so AL pitchers aren’t killed in the act of hitting and running?

Meg Rowley: I assume you mean adding the DH to interleague games? Once you acknowledge the silliness of any pitcher hitting doesn’t the whole thing just crumble?

Matt: Not to make light of Alderson’s obviously terrible circumstance, but removing the only voice of reason in that FO is going to be disastrous for that organization, isn’t it?

Meg Rowley: They are in a bad way as a franchise.

Morton Salt Girl: How much longer do the Astros roll with Jake Marisnick?

Meg Rowley: You know when you think you know how bad something is, but then you look at it, and realize it is worse? Oh Jake. Buddy. A 56 wRC+?

Morbo: How was Denver?

Meg Rowley: Denver as a city was lovely. I recommend it highly. Denver as a chance to meet readers and chat baseball? Also great! Denver as a chance to see coworkers who I like a lot? Even better.

Meg Rowley: The one downside of working from home is that I work with all these people I like a lot but rarely get to see. It makes those trips very, very fun.

Kevin: Let’s say, for some absurd reason, the Yankees trade for Charlie Blackmon. Do you think it becomes a big thing for him to shave/cut his hair, or do they let him off the hook?

Meg Rowley: They seem earnestly committed to their brand of hair nonsense, so I doubt Charlie gets an exception.

Audiorama: The Brewers have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball, but lately have been playing Thames and Brad Miller at key defensive positions in order to generate more offense. Are you in favor of this strategy?

Meg Rowley: I think there is a balance to be had there, though the idea that Brad Miller is there for offense remains the just weirdest-ass thing to me.

54: I’m friends with the family of an NHL player and we had to move a massive air conditioning unit at the family home during a rain storm, and the NHL player, despite being the strongest of us, was barred from participation. How often do you think pro athletes opt to skip mundanely physical (but mildly risky) tasks in their day to day life? I know it depends on the individual, but even being mindful of it seems annoying.

Meg Rowley: I love this question with my whole heart.

Meg Rowley: It’s a slightly different thing, but I know Iwakuma has posted about how he really, really loves to cook, but doesn’t during the season for fear he’ll cut himself or something.

Meg Rowley: I would think that it is annoying but that pro players have a great advantage of being able to hire people to do those sorts of tasks.

CamdenWarehouse: a 56 wRC+? Can Jake come play first base in Baltimore?

Meg Rowley: There are so many very sad stories in baseball this year.

Morbo: As a rage filled news monster I can say that punching inanimate objects such as walls can be quite cathartic

Meg Rowley: Just remember, you can also use your hand to make phone calls to fellow citizens and elected officials. It reduces pain in a few different ways.

Lindor, the Mighty Truffle: is there a coherent, non-conspiracy theory, reason Machado is still donning the orange and black?

Meg Rowley: They aren’t getting much in the way of offers for a rental?

Billy Beane: Data point about pro athletes: My brother is in the NFL and he never did anything risky to begin with, so I cannot offer any information. He eats about 6,000 calories a day, though.

Meg Rowley: I say this wishing him great health and happiness, but playing in the NFL seems pretty risky.

Morbo: Speculation as to why did Bryce Harper shaved his beard? Personally, I imagine that the beard gained sentience, and began heckling him during his at-bats thereby explaining his “poor” offensive numbers this year.

Meg Rowley: Maybe one day, a bug that wasn’t in his beard crawled on his face near his beard and then he got the idea that there were bugs in there, and he knew that there probably weren’t, but he couldn’t unthink it?

The Old Buccaneer: Almost a year later, Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzalez was a _____ trade.

Meg Rowley: I have to think the Mariners are pretty happy with it. I have to think the Cardinals don’t hate it.

Meg Rowley: Gonzales is an interesting guy. He’s definitely taken a step forward. The curve is way better, but the command is the real story in my opinion.

Bo: How concerned should I be as a Braves fan that our manager thinks the worst everyday hitter thus far (Ender) should get the most ABs?

Meg Rowley: It isn’t the best, but also doesn’t matter so much that you shouldn’t find other things to be mad about?

Butters: Treinen not getting traded because A’s above .500 and a dreamer’s distance from WC2, right?

Meg Rowley: And he’s not a free agent until 2021.

Jeff in T.O.: Marisnick had himself a GAME last night!!

Meg Rowley: He did. He had one game.

Bo: Will Sandy Alderson’s leave affect what the Mets do/don’t do at the deadline?

Meg Rowley: He’s far from the only person in the front office, but that sort of disruption isn’t a positive thing. Obviously, it’s hugely unimportant compared to his health and recovery.

Rockie Dangerfield: Let’s make Interleague really Interleague and let minor league teams play some series against the big clubs.

Meg Rowley: This is one of those things that sounds like a fun, weird baseball thing until you remember what Spring Training is like.

Butters: Are the Cubs the class of the NL, or is it still a mess and anything could happen with about 8 clubs?

Meg Rowley: I think it can be both things. There isn’t as much separation between the teams at the top and the teams in the middle, like we’re seeing in the AL. I’d probably go Cubs-Dodgers 1A/1B.

Bob: Can we please bring Eric’s Chat back to Tuesdays?

Meg Rowley: We rearranged things so that we had greater diversity of topic through the middle of the week.

Meg Rowley: I know it isn’t as much fun as contributing live (we’re having such fun), but we always post the transcripts of chats, should your question be about a scheduling conflict.

Joe Joe: On Jake’s 56 RC+, he was horrible at start of season. He was sent to AAA. He’s been back a month and has an RC+ of 119 since then. No reason not to expect he’ll settle in as a 4th OF around 80 RC+ with giving great centerfield defense.

Meg Rowley: This is true– June has been much better.

Mattyb: Will Kyle Seager get his OBP over .300 by the end of the season?

Meg Rowley: You hurt me.

Butters: If you’re the Mariners, who are you replacing if you go get a starter?  Presumably LeBlanc?  Is Nate Eovaldi good?

Meg Rowley: I know he got lit up in Boston, but LeBlanc has been weirdly ok this year? I’m sure he’d be the one who moves down, but he has been weirdly ok.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think they will make a big deadline move.

James: Every pitcher the Astros have used this year has an xFIP below 4. How fun is that?

Meg Rowley: For the Astros? Great fun. For the rest of the AL? Less fun!

AC: Is there a plan to do a FG meetup every season? In different locations?

Meg Rowley: I believe that we’ve normally done an Arizona meetup around spring training, and then more scattered ones as ballpark events or conferences have dictated. This year we had a few full time folks joining who weren’t onboard yet in March, which is why the Denver trip happened.

Bebop: are you shocked at Dayton Moore’s comments about wishing someone drafted Luke Heimlich?

Meg Rowley: I wish I were shocked by comments like those.

Will: I’m a Cubs fan. I just moved to Milwaukee. I proudly wear my Cubs hat (but I am not a clown about it… Cubs fans have a reputation up here). I feel confident about winning the division, but when I talk to Brewers fans they think I’m being arrogant. I respect the Brewers. I think they will make the playoffs. I also think the Cubs have a better team and  their depth will help win the division. Have you ever lived in your rival’s city? Any advice?

Meg Rowley: I think that fandom doesn’t often inspire people to assume the best in rivals. I think if you aren’t being a jerk about it, you’re probably fine.

Meg Rowley: But keep in mind, they’ve dealt with a lot of rude goofs (having lived in Wisconsin, and gone to Brewers/Cubs games, I can confirm).

Butters: Follow up question:  who is the best reliever on the market this trade season?  Is this a better route for the Mariners to go, trading a non-Kyle Lewis prospect or two for someone who can fill the hole created by Juan Nicasio’s below par performance?

Meg Rowley: Poor Juan. He made the classic reliever mistake– he was shaky early, and works slowly.

Meg Rowley: Since that first month, he’s been fine! Good even!

Ben: Is Sano donezo?

Meg Rowley: I don’t know about donezo, but barring a pretty significant transformation or change in approach, he’s significantly diminished.

Bo: Luis Castillo was perfect through 3 2/3… He then proceeded to surrender: walk, single, single, single, single, single.

Meg Rowley: Baseball is hard.

Kyle: How is Freddy Peralta doing this? I know there is some arm angle deception, but he only has two pitches and the dominant one, the fastball, isn’t even that fast. Sustainable?

Meg Rowley: Probably not to this level, and I’m always skeptical when guys look like this against not great offensive teams, but don’t underrate the value of that deception.

Morbo: How often do you try to write articles? Do you wait for inspiration or do you try to do one every x days/weeks? I ask because I enjoy your writing and would like read more of it

Meg Rowley: I GET IT CARSON.

Meg Rowley: I appreciate the kind words– THT has been keeping me busy lately, but as has been pointed out to me, if I write 1000 words instead of 2500 with a bunch of GIFs, it takes less time! I’m working toward a better balance.

Meg Rowley: But I am grateful you like and read the nonsense I write.

HappyFunBall: Joey Votto was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. I don’t even need to see the replay to know that the Ump was in the wrong

Meg Rowley: Probably so, but Votto knows the rule, too.

Meg Rowley: Ok folks, I need to get going. Thanks for hanging out on a Wednesday, and thanks to everyone in Denver who came out to the meetup. It was great chatting with you all.