Mets Acquire J.D. Davis at Steep Price
On Sunday, the Mets continued an active weekend of trades designed to add bench-quality pieces to their big league roster, sending several low-level minor leaguers to Houston for power-hitting corner bat J.D. Davis. Here’s the whole deal:
The Mets get:
J.D. Davis, 3B/1B/OF
Cody Bohanek, INF
The Astros get:
Luis Santana, 2B
Ross Adolph, CF
Scott Manea, C
Davis is talented — he has plus-plus raw power, a plus-plus arm, and can play several positions, though none especially well — but it’s hard to see how he fits in New York without taking playing time from players who have greater long-term potential and might also be just as good as Davis is right now. He doesn’t complement Todd Frazier or Peter Alonso — the two players projected to start for the Mets at Davis’ primary positions — in any way. Like Frazier and Alonso, Davis hits right-handed and isn’t a good infield defender.
He does have experience in the outfield corners, an area where the Mets need warm bodies, so perhaps we’ll see Davis used as a platoon or situational corner outfielder as a means of getting him at-bats against left-handed pitching. Davis hit .348/.419/.583 against southpaws last year and .344/.401/.800 in 2017, with most of that production coming at Triple-A Fresno. He could get some starts against lefties in situations where the Mets can hide him on defense. They could mix him with Juan Lagares or Keon Broxton depending on if the game state dictates a need for offense or defense, which might move Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo to center field once in a while.
This assumes Davis, who turns 26 in April, can hit big league pitching, something he hasn’t done in a fairly limited sample; he owns a .194/.260/.321 line in 181 career big league plate appearances. Houston, an organization at the forefront at understanding how to implement swing changes, doesn’t seem to have been able to alter Davis’ batted ball profile in a way that would enable him to start showing his raw power in games. A power-hitting platoon outcome seems reasonable to hope for, though Davis’ true talent level is probably closer to a defensively-limited bench bat, one that’s easier to roster in the American League and isn’t a great fit on this Mets roster as it’s currently composed.
Cody Bohanek, also acquired by the Mets, is an interesting, late-blooming athletic flier who is probably just an org guy. He played safety and corner at Marist High School in Chicago and had college football aspirations until the University of Illinois-Chicago gave him the opportunity to play baseball. Two-sport, cold weather prospects are apt to improve later than their warm weather peers who play more baseball, and that’s what happened with Bohanek, who had a statistical breakout as a senior and impressed scouts at NCAA Regionals. He was a 30th round senior sign in 2017.
Bohanek split 2018 between Low and Hi-A. He walked a lot and has a proficient, versatile infield glove. He may be a bench infielder at peak and the two-sport, small school, cold weather pedigree makes him slightly mysterious and interesting.
I like Houston’s end of this deal. Tyler White, who lifts the ball consistently and has a track record of hitting for power against big league pitching, made Davis offensively redundant in Houston, as the team didn’t seem interested in exploring a two-way role for Davis, who closed in college. They add three up-the-middle defenders who have performed statistically. The best of them is 19-year-old Dominican second baseman Luis Santana, who is coming off a domestic debut at advanced rookie-level Kingsport where he hit .348/.446/.471 with more walks than strikeouts.
A stocky, curvaceous 5-foot-8, Santana crowds the plate so much that he’s practically straddling it, and his idiosyncratic, low-ball swing enables him to impact pitches that cross the plate beneath his chest as he leans over it. It’s weird, but it works, and Santana looks like he’s going to be a plus hitter who also has a discerning eye for the strike zone, and whose plate crowding gets him hit by pitches so often that it actually matters. Santana has been hit in 4% of his 611 career plate appearances, which is nearly twice the career rate of active big league HBP leader Shin-Soo Choo (132 HBP, 1.9%) who became the active leader when Chase Utley (204 HBP, 2.5%) retired.
Athletically, Santana fits at second and third base. His body is pretty maxed out and he’s not likely to grow into sizable raw power, but he runs well, has infield-worthy hands and an average arm. The combination of his defensive profile and promising feel to hit make him a very intriguing prospect. He was slated to be the 10th ranked Mets prospect on our upcoming list as a 40+ FV player, and I think he’s the best individual talent involved in this deal.
The Astros also received Scott Manea and Ross Adolph. Adolph,22, is an interesting small-school sleeper who hit .322/.445/.654 as a junior at Toledo, then signed for $125,000 as a 2018 12th rounder. He continued to rake at short-season Brooklyn after signing, hitting .276/.348/.509 and swiping 14 bases (on 17 attempts) in 60 games.
He’s an above-average runner with good instincts in center field, and there’s a chance he can stay there. He could be a 50 bat with gap power who is playable in center, which would make him at least a viable big league fourth outfielder. He was going to be a prominent part of the Mets prospect lists’ honorable mention section. We whiffed on him pre-draft, but our sources who saw him in pro ball raved and I’m very interested to see how he hits in full-season ball next year because I think the industry’s error bars on small school bats are pretty large due to the quality of pitching they face.
Manea, 23, was drafted by Seattle out of high school but didn’t sign. He transferred to St. Petersburg College in Florida after his freshman year at NC State, but wasn’t drafted after his sophomore year despite being eligible. He had a good summer for the Wachusett Dirt Dawgs of the Futures Collegiate Baseball League and was eligible to sign as an undrafted free agent, which he did with the Mets in late July of 2016.
He’s a heavy-bodied catcher with power who hit .261/.368/.432 at Low-A Columbia last year. Manea’s a below-average receiver who lets his target sag as his pitcher starts to deliver the ball home, which means he has to come back to that spot with his glove, creating a lot of unnecessary movement that isn’t great for stealing strikes. He’s also a well-below average athlete and thrower, so he probably can’t catch.
The Astros have, in several instances, traded players on the periphery of their big league roster (Teoscar Hernandez, David Paulino, Ramon Laureano, etc.) for prospects, and this is another example. I understand the Mets desire to add high-probability contributors to their big league roster, even if they’re low-impact players, but moving a prospect like Santana for the kind of role player readily available on the open market feels short-sighted.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Teoscer and Paulino were not traded for prospects, Teoscsor for Liriano and Paulino is part of a package to get Osuna,
Correct, though you spelled Teoscar two different ways & both were wrong, so also incorrect.
“You are technically correct–the best kind of correct”
Not too familiar with Mets, but will they keep Alonso in AAA until they Super Two approximate deadline is passed or for about 2 weeks? If it is Super Two, they may need Davis to man first for a little bit.
BVW said Alonso will have chance to make the team out of spring training. Does Davis’s acquisition change that for a 7th year of control, or Super Two – that’s something we just don’t know right now unless BVW addresses it.
Teams always say the imminent prospect has a chance to win the job in spring training, then they keep him down until service time tolls. Alonso will definitely start the year in AAA.
When BVW says something, he means it. It wasn’t spin.
Counterpoint: everything FOs say to the media is, by definition, spin
Alonso is like 25, are the mets really so keen on not losing control over his age 32 season? Don’t waste his prime in the minors, this isn’t a case like vlad jr who will be 20 at opening day so it is understandable to keep him down for another peak year.
It’s only ten games. So yes: ten times out of ten, you get that extra year of control. If he’s a star, it’s possible he’ll still be great at 32 or that you trade him before then and get a slightly better return because of that extra year. And even if he’s a star, that 10 games of Alonso’s better bat over Frazier/McNeil is statistically meaningless. And if he’s not going to be a star, it’s all meaningless anyway.
They’ll probably keep him down until mid April to get another year of control.
The problem with putting JD Davis in a corner is that if you want to platoon any guy in the outfield, it’s probably Broxton, since you’ll want Conforto and Nimmo playing close to every day. Giving them a break in the corner every so often is one thing, but if you put Davis in a corner and slide Conforto or Nimmo to CF that means you still have the same number of right-handers in the lineup. If they want to spell Broxton that way, they would have been better off getting a lefty bench bat
(Cleveland has a bunch of these guys and they traded Plawecki to Cleveland earlier today, but I suspect that Cleveland strongly preferred to trade Walter Lockett instead of Tyler Naquin. Maybe their tune would be different if Santana was in the package, probably not, but it seems like a missed opportunity anyway)
Davis actually looks much more logical as a four-corners bench guy who spells everyone, playing every day against left-handed pitching and some days against righties too. Jeff McNeil was probably going to do some of that against righties though, so I think that some of Davis’s non-platoon time is going to be cut into by McNeil. And of all the people on the roster, McNeil is the one who makes the most sense to go into LF when the left-fielder shifts to center.
At the end of all this, I’m wondering where the heck Davis is going to play next year. His bat definitely plays much better at third, but that slot is taken next year. I’m curious to see how it all pans out.
Todd Frazier is here for one more season but it’s not written in stone he’s going to play every day especially as the season wears on should he continue to hit for low Batting Average and Low OBP and not hitting for the power projected of him like he didn’t in 2018.
The Mets are in it to win it and are carving a rather versatile roster for the purpose of depth and flexibility. Davis certainly profiles as a corner and could potentially be heir to Frazier should he earn it. And definitely an option to take over for Frazier should he go on DL.
Frazier has always been a low-OBP type (and low BA, although who cares) who hits the ball in the air over and over again, leading to low BABIP and many home runs. There’s no evidence from the (admittedly basic, but easy to look up) batted ball data on FG that he’s any different than the guy who put up 3 wins last year (and almost 3 wins the year before that). I suppose it is possible that a lot of his home runs that went over the wall in Chicago are dying at the warning track, but he has hit better away from home than at home in 2016 and 2017, so I’m not exactly buying that either.
Even if Frazier is who he was last year, that’s still a 2-win player, and is likely much better than Davis unless either Davis’s defense or offense takes a big step forward. This isn’t a knock on Davis, who certainly has the potential to develop into a league-average player, maybe as soon as next year, but Frazier has a very long track record of performing, which seems to fly below the radar. Unless he just totally falls off a cliff due to age next year, he’s probably going to be better than Davis next year.
It’s not likely they acquired Davis and used the chips they did just to have him in a fringe 25th man role. He’s going to get a shot here. RHed power is rare in the game, and they may feel he’s potentially a long term answer at 3B or LF where Frazier is here thru ’19 and Ces prob can’t be counted on at all (and is signed thru ’20).
“At the end of all this, I’m wondering where the heck Davis is going to play next year.”
He still has options. If everybody gets through March healthy, it seems like they can give him everyday at bats in AAA. Someone will get hurt – it’s inevitable – and he can get a shot at that point.
The Mets have lacked depth in their upper minor league system, so there wasn’t much of an option when someone goes down. This helps fix that problem.
Jd davis is going to surprise everyone. He was never given a shot like Bergman. Neither has Kyle tucker. For some reason astros gave Bregman literally went 0-50 and they kept him up there to figure it out. Tucker goes 0-10 they send him back down. Same with Davis. Davis will get a shot now and will surprise some people if you ask me. Got the tools.
Davis’ two strong years on offense were in the CAL league as a 22 YO, and repeating AA as a 24 YO, running a below average K rate. As a guy without defensive value and whose carrying tool might not show up in MLB games, I think Eric got this right. Davis is very likely something between a AAAA bat and the short side of a platoon, who doesn’t complement the guys he’s best suited to platoon with.
He tore up the PCL in 2018 – 342/.406/.583/.988 , 17 homers and 69 K’s in 377 P.A.’s so am not sure what you’re talking about.
Yeah, Davis’ best offensive year was in AAA last year (where he had a 156 wRC+, second to Vogelbach’s 157 wRC+ among qualified hitters).
And in AA, his first year’s wRC+ was 134, and his repeat year was 135.
Davis hit above 134 wRC+ at every stop (partial season and full season) up the minor league ladder.
If I click on the Fresno team page here, it has 13 players at 100+ wRC (I cut off at 100 PA).
This is an aside, but I was surprised to recently find out that although you can pull home/away splits for individual players at MILB, B-R, here, etc., that data isn’t condensed into team or league wide home/away splits.
How do you calculate wRC+ without home/away data to establish park factors and league context? I have a very hard time looking at the Fresno page and buying what I’m looking at as the true talent of the team.
I’ll grant that I’m selling Davis too short as far as his track record. I personally weigh K% and ARL very heavily and I don’t think he does well on either one, so that’s coloring what you’re hearing from me.
Minor league wRC+ is not park-adjusted (but is league adjusted, IIRC).
Interestingly, Fresno’s park is not one of the PCL launching pads (like Colorado Springs, SLC, Alb), but Fresno’s players obviously play many of their road games in those parks.
Fresno was also a stacked offensive team last year.
Have to be careful about over-relying on certain stats which doesn’t account for player development and improvement,. Javy Baez and Kris Bryant were very high K. J.D. Martinez K’d 82 times in 296 Astros AB’s with a .650 OPS and was released at 26. The rest is history.
J.D. Martinez completely reworked his swing and approach after he was released and the rest is history. J.D. Martinez’s prospect numbers and MLB numbers with Houston have very little to do with what he is now.
Well, a lot of guys tear up the PCL. Fresno as a team batted .283/.362/.461 and scored nearly six runs a game. 30 YO Tim Federowicz, or, Org. Catcher poster child, hit .328/.404/.560 in a sample a little under half that size. Frankly, a bat-first guy needs to mash in AAA at 25.
You’re right that I’m wrong to ignore the data altogether. It was the first time he got his K% under 20% since his low A pro debut. College bats have a hard time getting out ahead of age relative to league. I think optimism beyond a bench outcome is highly aggressive on Davis, that’s all.
Federowicz also hit .345/.393/.562/.955 in Low A-Ball Greenville in 247 PA’s.
But I wouldn’t use catcher as example to prove a point about PCL. Catcher responsibility in the majors is a whole other animal. There’s a reason why there aren’t a whole lot of good hitting big league catchers regardless of good minor league production.
Kevin Plawecki hit similarly well in Binghampton and Vegas but not much in the majors.
J.D. Davis showed improvement in Fresno and that should be the focus rather than getting too hung up on the degree of elevated PCL stats. He probably would have hit .300 and with strong OBP and SLG had he played AAA at sea level.
His defensive value at 3B is fine. Has a cannon.
They probably sent Tucker back down because they were in the middle of defending their world series title and had a replacement available, which I don’t think was the case when Bregman was struggling (Gurriel wasn’t ready yet). That said, I don’t really think he’s got a lot left to learn in the minors, and there’s nowhere to play him unless Reddick or Brantley exits the picture. At some point they probably have to trade him or actually give him a shot, but when and how?
It’s easy to find playing time for KTucker. Just have Brantley DH or play 1B (the latter of which Brantley is reportedly willing and able to do).
I’m not buying into Fangraphs negativity. J.D. Davis was a 3rd round pick and #9 Astros prospect. He has talent and now needs an opportunity without looking over his shoulder and is exactly what he’ll get.
The Mets made it clear they believe in him and hence put together a package to get him. Brodie Van Wagenen has some very good people advising him, and he intensely does his homework. He said he was going to add depth to a team very much in need of it and is exactly what he’s doing along with obtaining some high quality proven big leaguers. Mets are already loaded with quality middle infielders in the low minors. Losing Santana is not a loss that concerns me.
Davis is going to get every opportunity to carve out a valuable role on the Mets whatever it will be. He has lots of power and very strong arm and has shown solid hitting ability in the minors. He’s also made some rather good plays defensively in the majors which demonstrates ability. He doesn’t have to be a gold glover or a super star to carve out a good career. If he happens to turn into the next surprise like a JD Martinez, Jose Bautista, Max Muncy, that’s gravy. BVW is doing really good job and last I checked, Eric Longenhagen doesn’t decide Mets playing time.
Here’s some back-of-napkin probabilities about what 3rd round pedigree means, without looking at any scouting, minor league performance data, age, HS or JC or C background, etc. Let’s look at the 2002-2006 drafts:
Signing rate: 94% (141/150)
MLB debut rate (of signees, not all draft picks): 42.55% (60/141)
POS bWAR rate (signees who produced a positive career WAR): 21.99% (31/141)
1+ bWAR rate (signees who produced a 1+ career bWAR): 14.89% (21/141)
Here’s other round number thresholds:
2+ bWAR rate: 12.77% (18/141)
5+ bWAR rate: 8.51% (12/141)
10+ bWAR rate: 6.38% (9/141)
20+ bWAR rate: 2.13% (3/141)
Returning to the earlier comment, if Bregman has a 2019 season anything like his 2018, he’ll already have outproduced 98% of the careers of signed 3rd round picks. He’ll be 25 next year, and he’s more than a full year younger than Davis, who is among the 78.01% of third round picks who fails to both make a MLB debut and produce a positive career WAR. These guys don’t belong in the same conversation.
I posted my napkin data in a comment below this if anyone wants to look.
1+ career bWAR, 2002-2006 3rd round picks
2006: Joe Smith (12.8), Zach Britton (11.7), Zach McAllister (2.9), Jason Donald (1.4), Blake Wood (1)
2005: Brett Gardner (37.5), Brian Duensing (6.2), Micah Owings (3.3), Jensen Lewis (2.2)
2004: J.A. Happ (20.8), Wade Davis (13), Ian Desmond (16.4), Adam Lind (11.9)
2003: Shaun Marcum (13.5), Matt Harrison (8.9), Sean Rodriguez (8.4), Ryan Garko (3.6), Chris Ray (3.1)
2002: Curtis Granderson (47.7), Charlie Morton (2.7), Elijah Dukes (1.9)
2006: 28 signed, 12 MLB, 7 POS, 5x 1+ bWAR
2005: 28 signed, 12 MLB, 5 POS, 4x 1+ bWAR
2004: 30 signed, 14 MLB, 8 POS, 4x 1+ bWAR
2003: 27 signed, 14 MLB, 6 POS, 5x 1+ bWAR
2002: 28 signed, 8 MLB, 5 POS, 3x 1+ bWAR
What’s with all the Indians relievers on this list?
Wait, which side of a napkin is the back?
Surely you meant “back of the envelope”? 😉
Bregman was a top prospect and 2nd overall pick. Of course he is getting more chances than a random guy.
Just look at buxton, he probably would have been released if he hasn’t been a top prospect.
It is also correct to be more patient with top prospects. Tools matter and statistically top prospects do much better than later round guys even though there are exceptions.
I don’t necessarily disagree that Davis might prove successful. I do object to fans making statements such as: “Brodie Van Wagenen has some very good people advising him, and he intensely does his homework.” This is just pure speculation/projection.
It’s neither speculation nor projection re: BVW’s modus operandi. He’s extremely detailed oriented, and turns over every stone. It’s how he was as an agent and how he is as GM.
Whether the players he signs or trades for play well is to be determined, but he does everything he can to select trade and free agent targets who fit what he seeks. That’s what fans want in a front office – extensive and quality due diligence and a variety of means to determine that both old and new school.
Brodie, my dude. Remember Bryan Colangelo’s wife? I’m sure it’s been personally and professionally annoying to hear people question your qualifications. Just take a deep breath and remember: it’s never a good idea to go defending yourself anonymously in internet comment sections.
This may well be true, but who knows? Unless you’re actually part of the front office or Brodie himself, you’re engaging in some very aggressive speculation.
The fact of the matter is, the Mets deserve no benefit of the doubt. They’re a mickey-mouse organization with a decades-long history of trading away prospects to save a little bit of money. They’ve been on the wrong side of many of these types of deals. Brodie has no history in player development, and Jeff Wilpon has always been very shortsighted. Maybe they got this one right? Only time will tell.
Its funny that you correctly call out LongTermFan for his positive-biased broad generalizations about the Mets in his post, and then you proceed to make several negative-biased broad generalizations about the Mets.
its not like all other MLB front offices are like this
As a Mets fan, I feel the same way. While I do like his willingness to be active via smaller trades as well as via bigger trades, making trades in and of themselves isn’t indicative of anything. A team consistently on the losing end of deals can essentially make as many trades as it wants.
As with most things, only time will tell.
I love that there has been a Jerry Dipoto who constantly makes moves that are neither bad or good in vacuum. I’m not so sure how I feel about having the second coming as my team’s GM.
FrancoAmbivalentTowardsMets
Can’t be any worse than what we’ve had before, right? Right?
Right?
Eyebrows raised — this is the same Davis who was in the trade? Perhaps the Mets want to explore the Opener strategy, but because they’re in the NL they need a guy who can bat competently if his spot comes up before he gets through the other team’s 9.
No, I don’t believe it either, but I would enjoy it immensely if the Mets became some science-project Rays-M’s mashup running out bizarre on-field experiments while being run by a guy who trades like Hospital Jerry. The NY media — not to mention “Caller Tony from Queens” — would absolutely lose their minds.
“A stocky, curvaceous 5-foot-8, Santana crowds the plate so much that he’s practically straddling it, and his idiosyncratic, low-ball swing enables him to impact pitches that cross the plate beneath his chest as he leans over it.”
Aw yiss I love me some weird little hitters. Wishing him luck and video clips.
I think this move is strictly because they think JD could be the 3B of the future. Their current 3B is going into his age 33 season, is on the last year of his contract and is declining steadily. Obviously JD has struggled at the major league level so far. I think you’ll see him get ABs at all corner spots throughout 2018. If Frazier continues to decline and JD is playing well, I think there’s a decent chance he could take over for him in-season. More likely though, his auditioning to see if he can be the guy in 2020.
He provides versatility but could definitely become candidate to take over third base in 2020 or prior if f he hits in the majors, plays solid defense and smart, fundamental baseball this season.
This is a case of a new GM tradingvfor guys he knows and trading away guys he doesn’t. Rarely does that pay off well.
Is getting HPB a true skill? I would think a team wouldn’t want a guy getting HPB as often as Luis Santana does would they? The risk of serious injury and a long DL stint would be of a serious concern.
If the guy is a star, teams probably don’t want guy taking extra risks like HBPs too often. For guys on the margin, teams probably want those guys doing everything they can.
Whatever gets a guy on base – Ron Hunt made a career out of it…but he also had to retire early. I remember Biggio and Jason Kendall doing it a lot and being successful – maybe they were better conditioned for it having been catchers before.
Nobody has mentioned the best of the best at getting HBP, Brandon Guyer. In 2016 he took one in the elbow, ribs, shirt 31 times in 383 PA’s for an amazing 9% hit rate. That was a tough way to a .372 OBP. Even Utley pales in comparison.
“A stocky, curvaceous 5-foot-8”
This is how I will describe myself for the rest of my life.
Are you single? Asking for a friend with a great DRS.
Does davis really need a swing change?
In a short sample in the majors he did not perform but in AAA he had a 40% gb rate and a 19% hr/fb rate with 17 hr and a 240 iso in 300 PA.
If he could do that in the majors it would be good.
JD Davis has interested me for awhile. He’s hit at all levels of the minors and hasnt had enough playing time in the MLB to have a consensus opinion about. 25 year olds in AAA at the PCL are supposed to hit well though so I discount his AAA stats a bit. He needs MLB playing time, but it’s kind of hard to see where he fits in with the Mets
“Curvaceous?” A new word in the Fangraphs lexicon, I think. “Not the Greek God of anything” I can follow, but still …
“…impact pitches that cross the plate beneath his chest as he leans over it.” — Luis Santana apparently has a clear idea of what his fans want to soo. Definitely a man to watch.
They might have given up a lot in Santana but I think it is worth a shot. I do not see a future for Frazier with the Mets. He is getting older and the low BA in the middle of the lineup is a problem. Without JD Davis, I would rather see McNeil at 3rd, regardless of who is pitching. JD Davis has potential. We know what Frazier is likely to produce in terms of numbers. I would give JD Davis a chance to win a platoon job with McNeil. If JD Davis does not work out, then play McNeil everyday at 3rd.
Hmmmm… you alluded to something when you said that Houston “didn’t seem interested in exploring a two-way role for Davis, who closed in college. ” But maybe that’s it! Maybe the Mets are interested, and they see Davis as a great pinch-hit-then-pitch guy for their NL bench?