Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 5/31/13

Mike Newman: Hello all, thanks for joining me today! We’ll get started in about 15-minutes. While you wait, please check out my piece from earlier today on June leaders for the top prospect in baseball heading into 2014.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-the-no-1-prospect-june-edition/

Mike Newman: Also, last week I angered a few readers who ripped me a new one for getting frustrated at chatters for not reading up on my work before asking questions. I wanted to apologize for that.

Mike Newman: You know what. I’m here, questions are in the queue, let’s get this started a little early….

Comment From Mike
sitting on a bunch of prospects on my dynasty team. bogaerts, singleton, myers, bundy. singleton seems to be the ONLY good 1b prospect on earth, but is he worth cutting of the 4? bundy broken?

Mike Newman: First off, why would you have to cut one? Right now, the only one off the chopping block is Bogaerts. I’d be trying to trade one because all should be owned in whatever format you play in.

Comment From Jon
Singleton is going to be a BEAST. 2 hr in 2 games, mlb by august?

Mike Newman: I’m not sure if he’s there by August, but September is a possibility. The position is wide open for him, but they really don’t have to rush him. While 50 games is a lot to miss, I don’t think it affected his development at all.

Comment From Milhouse
Have you seen CJ Edwards pitch. Thoughts?

Mike Newman: Well, I won’t see Edwards this weekend as I’ll be watching Hickory tonight and tomorrow. Maybe I can do an interview with him tomorrow or something. He might be in the stands charting this evening, so it wouldn’t hurt to ask.

Comment From Ryan S
Any thoughts on Stetson Allie’s performance so far? Wondering how the visual aspect of scouting compares to the ridiculous numbers he’s put up so far,

Mike Newman: I’ve seen Allie a couple of times and he might really develop into an asset for the Pirates. Their pulling the trigger on the switch quickly is a key factor. To your question, it’s answered in the piece. I couldn’t do it justice in this space.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/stetson-allie-pirates-press-the-reset-button/

Comment From Garin Cecchini
How do you like me now?!

Mike Newman: LOL. Cecchini is off to a great start. At 22, I’m looking forward to his being challenged at the Double-A level. If he responds there, then I’m happy to eat my previous words.

Comment From Adam
Do you like Alex Colome’s potential?

Mike Newman: Colome has always been regarded as having crazy good stuff, but poor command. I’ve tried to see him numerous times in Chattanooga, but he has always been injured, or I’ve had conflicts.

Comment From Adam
How much longer for Wil Myers?

Mike Newman: He’s on fire right now. I’d be surprised if he’s not up this month.

Comment From Adam
Is Chris Archer ready to succeed in the majors?

Mike Newman: More ready than Odorizzi and that’s really all that matters in this case. In an organization with lesser pitching, he would have been up for good in the middle of 2012.

Comment From Nik
Roman Quinn hit his 5th homer last night. Does this promise of power change his floor, since its still a question whether he sticks at SS or has to move to CF?

Mike Newman: Last fall, I called Quinn a better Billy Hamilton because of his pop. I thought he had the ability to stick at shortstop when I saw him last summer, but will have the chance to follow up next month, I think. I know Lakewood travels to Rome this year, but I’m not sure when exactly.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/roman-quinn-a-better-billy-hamilton/

Comment From Greg
Arismendy Alcantara – any thoughts on him? Is he finally figuring out how to use his tools?

Mike Newman: Yes, I’m a fan. Another guy I thought had more pop than people would give him credit for considering his diminutive size. I had to miss him last week due to other obligations, but hope to follow up next month when they visit Chattanooga again. If Jorge Soler is promoted (fingers crossed), it’s a slam dunk.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Anyone under the radar I should pay attention to in the White Sox system?

Mike Newman: Not really under the radar, but I hope Keenyn Walker puts it together. His tools are tantalizing and I really thought he was making progress in 2012. His start has been disappointing to say the least.

Comment From Seth
What’s going on in Seattle. Unbelievable that ackley, montero, and zunino are struggling this much. What are your thoughts specifcally on Montero and Zunino? Who will have a better career?

Mike Newman: Baseball is really hard. For every Harper or Trout, there are 1,000 guys who don’t perform to expectations. Right now, it seems Seattle has just about all of them. Zunino is the catcher of the future in Seattle. Period. Once this occurs, Montero will be in limbo unless he starts hitting. They have better DH/1B options.

Comment From mike
Thoughts on Robert Stephenson?

Mike Newman: JD wrote a little something about him. At some point, I actually have to watch something on MILB.tv. I paid money for it and have watched exactly three innings of Kevin Gausman.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nl-pitching-prospects-debut-stepheson-fried-et-al/

Comment From John
Could you compare/contrast Jonathan Villar with Brad Miller?

Mike Newman: I’ve seen Miller in person a couple of times. He’s a guy who is more athletic than given credit for and his tools play up because he has a high baseball IQ. Villar is an elite athlete, but doesn’t max out his tools because of he has a tendency to play out of control.

Comment From Dan
Don’t sweat it, Mike. A lot of us do read your previous and current work with a passion, but hell if I can remember what I had for breakfast this morning, much less an article about Prospect X last month, without a refresher.

Mike Newman: Thanks for understanding.

Comment From Matt
What do you think about who could be the top prospect going into 2014? Just kidding. Great article. I would’ve been frustrated too, but apology accepted.

Mike Newman: Thanks to you too.

Comment From Will
Wacha, Gausman, Skaggs, Archer – ROS order?

Mike Newman: Archer, Wacha, Gausman, Skaggs. Long term, Gausman, Wacha, Archer Skaggs.

Comment From JV
How soon is Yelich and Myers going to be up?

Mike Newman: Myers within a month (hopefully). It’s hard to predict Yelich because they have gone so far off book with Ozuna and Fernandez. Both are performing admirably, but nobody thought either would be out of Double-A right now.

Comment From Guest
Recuisite Wilmer Flores question: His offensive ability may not play well at 1B in the majors but the Mets seem to be clinging to the idea of him being a 2B. If he can somehow play 2B in majors, how will his bat play there?

Mike Newman: His bat plays quite well at 2B. It would absolutely have to carry him there. As for 1B, definitions for what is acceptable at position have changed. IF D’Arnaud becomes a plus offensive catcher, the Mets can afford to have a non-prototype guy at another spot.

Comment From Seth
What’s amazing about singleton is how much power he produces with such a low k rate. Very Oscar Tavaeras-esque of him.

Mike Newman: Let’s not get head of ourselves. Singleton has carried a 20-plus% K rate since 2011. Taveras has NEVER been above 17.9% at any level.

Comment From Dan
Lol, I did have a question, too: who do you think provides the best long-term option (fantasy focus) at 3B – Schoop, Cowart, or Olt? Are any a better option than Moustakas? Much thanks, Mike.

Mike Newman: Give me Schoop. I trust he’ll hit and may wind up playing everyday with multiple positions next to his name.

Comment From Kurt
Do you know when Kyle Crick will be coming of the DL?

Mike Newman: No idea. Really liked him last year, but I only focus on what’s in front of me as in writing schedule and what teams are in close enough proximity to see.

Comment From Guest #1
Just so we know about whom to ask questions, what leagues do you mostly see?

Mike Newman: Ask away. If I don’t have anything to add that you can’t find with a Google search, I won’t post the question.

Comment From Ty Cobb
Hi Mike, how’s David Dahl’s hammy, attitude, and bat? Aka thoughts on Dahl? Also any thoughts on Jesse Winker from last years draft and this years Daniel Palka?

Mike Newman: Well, I wanted to scout and interview Dahl a couple of weeks ago, but then the injury happened. it’s the second time I’ve missed him due to “stuff.” I’ll have more chances later in the season though and I’m always looking for an excuse to head to Asheville for beer…ahem…baseball. As for Palka, I saw him as a freshman and then again this year. big, strong, and not so athletic. He’s really going to have to mash. At the same point, I liked Matt Skole more when he was drafted a couple of years ago.

Comment From Nobody
Hickory has a bunch of players that tend to strike out more than their fair share. Is this something you will be looking for? Would you rather see a player with lots of power or a player with moderate power and plate discipline in the minors?

Mike Newman: Yes, even had a scout warn me to take their swing-tastic ways with a grain of salt and understand it’s a very young team.

Comment From Ben
Over/Under on combined Strikeouts and Home Runs this weekend when you see Hickory: 35. What do you take?

Mike Newman: Well, I’m only seeing two games, so I’ll take the under. Regardless, Hickory is always my “kid in a candy store’ team. I’ll be excited to hit the road at 5:30 or so. Then, I’ll hit batting practice tomorrow for laughs.

Comment From lowercase jeff
with his recent struggles, how much has zunino’s stock fallen? i have heard some people (clearly caught up in the hype) compare him to posey. what type of hitter do you think he will be instead?

Mike Newman: I have no interest in tooting my own horn when saying this, but I’ve repeated multiple times that I was concerned about how many fastball he swung through and that it might negatively affect his batting average. I haven’t seen him this season, but that might be coming to pass.

Comment From Revilo
Sticking with West Virginia, Glasnow’s BB rate was the most obvious blemish before his last start, and then he walked 7. How big of an obstacle do you think it will be for him? One observer wrote that he didn’t seem to be missing badly. Are you bullish?

Mike Newman: Glasnow pitched the night before I saw West Virginia, but scouts in attendance had him at 88-91. He’s tall and lanky, but not super athletic. When 6’7″ and so-so athleticism cross paths, the result is often a package to dream on with command issues. Glasnow is one of those guys.

Comment From Rockhead
I know he’s no longer a prospect, but he never really had the chance to be one, but what do you make of the high expectations for Rutledge and his recent demotion? Do you see him returning any time soon? 1-2 weeks/months?

Mike Newman: All the questions about Rutledge as a prospect came to fruition. The league seized upon his free swinging tendencies and made him pay. He’ll need to adjust his approach. It may take weeks, or months.

Comment From cougar
What can the Mariners expect from Jackson outfielder Julio Morban?

Mike Newman: Honestly, I’ve been all over his hit tool since spring training and friends/contacts in the industry have tried to beat me down. His BABIP is crazy and he’s striking out much more than I thought he would. Right now, the numbers have nowhere to go but south. The problem with Morban is he’s a tweener. He may fit better as a 4th outfielder in the end.

Comment From Ruben
Who’s a good comp for Garin Cecchini? Alex Gordon bat with Alex Gordon’s 3B defense?

Mike Newman: High praise. I’ve always liked Bill Mueller.

Comment From Walker
Pagan and Prado for Machado in a keeper league? I have a large lead in steals with Ellsbury and McClouth still rostered. Thanks.

Mike Newman: Why would anybody make that deal with you?

Comment From Boone
Blake Swihart has hit the ball ok, but with zero power. Is this more a case of playing in bigger ballparks or is there a problem here?

Mike Newman: I’m honestly not a big Swihart guy. He was okay, but I didn’t understand what all the hype was about.

Comment From michael
If your in hickory, let’s meet up at the hickory nut and have a brew!

Mike Newman: I’m not. They are at Rome and I live in Atlanta. I have been wanting to take a trip to NC at some point to check out a few games though.

Comment From Dave
Stefen Romero thoughts?

Mike Newman: I’ve written quit a bit about Romero and the Mariners situation. He’d be a nice super utility player who plays 3-4x a week for me.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-have-many-options-little-impact/

Comment From ms
What are chances that Nick Franklin will be Seattle’s next failed prospect?

Mike Newman: I like Franklin and see him as a future .275 guy with 15-18 HR annually.

Comment From Izzy
Thoughts on Cesar Puello?

Mike Newman: Nice tools. I’ve always liked his potential for speed and power. I saw him a bunch back in 2010 and was very bullish on his all-around game.http://www.rotoscouting.com/puello-caesar-2010.html

Comment From Mike
Billy Hamilton…back to hero after last month of 300+ avg?

Mike Newman: He’s never been that for me. I’m still not convinced big league velocity won’t knock the bat out of his hand.

Comment From jlr
Lets say, just for fun, you WERE in Hickory. Would you go have a beer with that guy?

Mike Newman: I’m ALWAYS happy to meet up with readers and talk baseball.

Comment From Riflemen
Gallo is showing power but striking out way too much. What’s the key to his development?

Mike Newman: I’ll know more by Sunday.

Comment From Scout Vick
Is Ronald Guzman the real deal?

Mike Newman: I had hoped to see him this weekend, but he’s on the DL.

Comment From Chris Dew
I dropped Brandon Drury last year in my dynasty league- did I make a mistake?

Mike Newman: Probably not, but he was the only legit position prospects on last year’s Rome team. Good to see him doing well with the DBacks after a rough 2012. His acquisition was a product of good scouting.

Comment From Dan
Can Kolton Wong be any better than Matt Carpenter is right now? Perhaps a better question – which combination of Freese, Carpenter, and Wong has the highest ceiling, from 2014 on?

Mike Newman: No, I don’t think Wong can be better. This is why he’s still in Triple-A. It’s difficult to displace veterans with track records of success for the unknown when in a pennant race.

Comment From Adam
Is Edward Salcedo finally putting it together in Mississippi? It’s early, but there has to be some room for optimism – or hope – right?

Mike Newman: I’m trying to get myself motivated to follow up on J.R. Graham, Bethancourt and Salcedo next week when they visit Chattanooga. Salcedo always had the tools to produce at a high level. This was a bit of a make or break year for him and he’s playing well.

Comment From The other Kyle
How do you see the Dodgers OF situation playing out for the rest of ’13 and 2014? Puig and Pederson are doing all they can, but there are only so many spots.

Mike Newman: Pederson comes up first for me due to his ability to play CF, even if not very well. At some point, they will have to shed Ethier’s contract.

Comment From seadog
Will Jackie Bradley’s skills translate at the MLB level any time soon?

Mike Newman: Yes, but I think he’s a better MLB player than fantasy. He’ll do a bit of everything. Might he be Angel Pagan-ish with better defense?

Comment From Adrian
Wheeler a better prospect compared to Wacha and Wheeler?

Mike Newman: Yes

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
is it possible folks have underrated Jose Iglesias’ ability to hit much like happened with Didi Gregorius?

Mike Newman: Yes, I’ve always thought he had a short, quick stroke and didn’t understand why his numbers were so bad. Now, i don’t think either is this good, but both can be better than no hit options.

Comment From sea salt
in your opinion, is there a certain age that players reach in A ball where if they havent advanced, they should hang it up? same with AA and AAA

Mike Newman: Well, I’d never say a guy should hang it up because it’s ultimately their life and dream. However, once a guy is three years older than a true prospect at the level, it’s time to start wondering whether or not he has a future.

Comment From Ty Cobb
Mike Olt is going to turn 25 in September, if this eye issue doesn’t turn around fast, is he in danger of becoming lost in the shuffle and becoming a long shot as a MLB regular?

Mike Newman: Yes, I’ve never been a big fan… I had a scout tell me the Rangers should have dealt him last year because his value has probably peaked.

Comment From Dan
Alex Meyer’s numbers – go/ao, 2 HR allowed, 63K/54.2IP, are fairly eye popping. If he can get his BB rate down to a more acceptable level, are we looking at a potentially dominating pitcher?

Mike Newman: The stuff is there for him to be a 2/3 starter, but command/control is always the question. It’s great to dream on pure stuff, but he still needs to refine some. One can’t say a pitcher will dominate until this happens.

Comment From Trey
At what point do we forget about how great a guy was as a prospect and start living with the idea that we may have been wrong? (I’m thinking about Eric Hosmer.)

Mike Newman: At 22, superstar level players are often up for good. Hosmer did that at 21 and excelled even. Now, he’s 23 and struggling. If I was a Royals fan, I’d be hoping for a return to 2011 numbers with better defense in his prime. That would be pretty good.

Comment From Guest
In response to sea salt, I don’t believe anyone can tell someone to hang it up on their dream. Even though they may not make it to the bigs, they still get to play baseball for a living (albeit not the greatest pay).

Mike Newman: Well said.

Comment From Marcus
What’s the deal with Rubby De La Rosa? Why haven’t they let him pitch more than 4 IP per start, despite having dominated AAA for the last month or so. I know he’s a TJ survivor, but wasn’t his surgery over a year and a half ago? Shouldn’t it be time to let him air it out a little?

Mike Newman: Maybe, but the Red Sox are being cautious. I can’t fault them for that. More than anything, I’m excited he’s allowed only 1 ER in his last 22 innings pitched. This bodes well for him as a starter or reliever.

Comment From Guest
Any prediction on when Cingrani might get called back up to the Majors?

Mike Newman: When a Reds pitcher gets hurt.

Comment From Gson
Are the Twins hurting or helping Aaron Hicks by keeping him at the ML level?

Mike Newman: At this point, yes. For the month, he has a .738 OPS. and a .815 OPS in his last ten. There’s really reason to demote him for a miserable April.

Comment From Don
If you had to pick one, would you take T. Walker or Wheeler?

Mike Newman: I’ve gone back and forth with this. Today, I’d probably take Walker. Two months ago, it would have been Wheeler. Last year, it would have been Walker.

Comment From infielders
My 35-man fantasy dynasty roster includes Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons, Danny Espinosa, Jason Kipnis, Jedd Gyrko and Derek Jeter. Is Nick Franklin worth picking up if the team has no pressing needs?

Mike Newman: Yes, I’d prefer him to Espinosa.

Comment From Edd
Is James Nelson gonna get the callup for the Brewers anytime soon? What is your projected time frame for this?

Mike Newman: Not sure about a time frame, but he’s a quality pitching prospect whose stuff was pretty nasty when I saw him. His strikeout of Yasiel Puig on an outside slider in Chattanooga was a glimpse of the pitcher he could be. Good kid too.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-rising-stock-of-jimmy-nelson/

Comment From Gson
If you’ll know by Sunday.. does that mean you don’t know enough right now?

Mike Newman: It means I haven’t seen Hickory in person. I go to minor league parks and see players. Trying to answer a question about Gallo when I’ll see 8-10 plate appearances by Sunday doesn’t make much sense when I can hold off and provide readers with real, first hand information.

Comment From jlr
Party at Mike’s house in Atlanta! Woot!

Mike Newman: My wife would love that. If you like milk and non-stop Gangnam Style dance parties with my three kids, come on over. You bring the beer though. I prefer anything from Founders Brewery.

Comment From Chuck
Why are so many lists slave to the arbitrary definition of ‘prospect’? Let’s see your top-100 Under 25…

Mike Newman: Because they drive insane amounts of traffic. I can write a feature piece on Byron Buxton and it will do 1/10th of the traffic Marc Hulet’s Twins top-15 does. If readers didn’t love lists so much, the industry would do less of them.

Comment From BRL
What are your projections for Gary Sanchez?

Mike Newman: I saw his over/under at .250 with 25 home runs annually. I was also not 100% sure he’d stick at catcher. Without a doubt, his being able to advance a level and maintain his numbers is a good sign.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-york-yankees-baseball-prospect-gary-sanchez-fangraphs-video-scouting-report/

Comment From HN
Has Buxton’s fast start and demonstration of present baseball skill caused you to revisit your opinion that Buxton will take a while to reach the majors?

Mike Newman: He’ll take awhile still, but his timetable has definitely accelerated in my mind.

Comment From George
Have you had a chance to see Chad Rogers of Pensacola? Do you have any thoughts?

Mike Newman: No, Pensacola’s roster is not good, so I skipped them. I can’t afford to make a trip for one prospect. If I’m not able to squeeze 3 pieces out of a trip, I don’t go.

Comment From Chuck
Fair answer. OK, new idea for the most intriguing prospect (or Under-25) list ever created: You have a $1,000 budget and you allocate it among the top 100 prospects. For example, Profar at #1 might be worth $50, while George Springer at #65 might be worth $8.

Mike Newman: This is good, but I’ve tried alternative lists. For example, my Newman’s Own series highlighting the best players I saw during the year. It was successful, but people just wanted their lists. I asked for feedback in a chat one day and readers would rather I make lists that include everybody even if I had no information over a list featuring what I really knew.

Comment From dean
any Birmingham barons mlb prospects

Mike Newman: I might shoot over there next weekend for Jacksonville. I’d like to follow up on their outfielders having seen Trayce Thompson and Keenyn Walker previously.

Comment From Eric
Is Max Scherzer a good comp for Trevor May if everything breaks right and he lives up to his potential? Or am I dreaming…

Mike Newman: No. Trevor May isn’t anywhere near as good.

Comment From Hot Lady
What’s your reevaluated take on Dylan Bundy? You are so sweet.

Mike Newman: Can’t really reevaluate Bundy since he’s hurt. Let’s speculate he needs TJ. At that point, he misses a year and is back to 100% by 2015. Worst case scenario, he’s 22 and back dominating again.

Comment From Texus
Do I trade Markakis for Profar in dynasty?

Mike Newman: Yes, in an instant.

Comment From Marcus
How aggressive would you promote Rafael De Paula if you were the Yankees given his the late start to his pro career and his domination of the SAL? Would a promotion to the FSL this year and begin next year at AA be too aggressive?

Mike Newman: No, not if he produces after being promoted. In instances like this, the organization generally has reasons to hold him back that we aren’t privy to. It happens all the time. At some point, we have to trust the Yankees know their own assets best.

Comment From Sean T.
Where does Archie Bradley rank in ceiling among all prospects?

Mike Newman: Super duper high

Comment From Arnie
Mike, do you think Bogaerts will make his debut this season and will he or Iglesias be the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox

Mike Newman: I think he’ll debut later this season and I’m not sure where he winds up right now. Middlebrooks has struggled and Iglesias has had issues too. I’m confident the left side of their future infield will be two of Bogaerts, Middlebrooks or Iglesias. I’m not sure anybody can be definitive.

Comment From JD
Where would Carlos Rodon rank if he were Top 100 eligible today?

Mike Newman: Top-25, but I honestly liked Hultzen in college more than Rodon all things being equal.

Comment From Nate
Is Joely Rodriguez becoming a legit prospect for the pirates?

Mike Newman: Saw him pitch against Asheville. He was so-so, nothing special. Any lefty who sits 90ish deserves some level of respect.

Comment From Guest
Really trying to find a favorable comp for Nick Franklin (or Edmundo as Yahoo! calls him)… Thoughts?

Mike Newman: Really no need to try so hard. Nick Franklin is a good baseball player. That’s enough.

Comment From Patrick Sharp
Gordon and Nelson Cruz were considered AAAA Ball players… Sometimes it doesn’t happen till WAY LATE !!!

Mike Newman: In fairness, both were TOP prospects before floundering.

Comment From Frank
Do you think Bogaerts will be a started for the Red Sox by the end of 2014?

Mike Newman: yes

Comment From Sammy
Sorry if you’ve already done it somewhere, but can you give some thoughts on Joc Pederson? He wasn’t really on any big prospect lists, but his production is great and he’s young too. Is there just not much projection there? Any good MLB comp?

Mike Newman: A contact put it best when he said, “average or better tools across the board and they play up.” Pederson is a nice player and has grown on me with every additional look.

Comment From Riflemen
Who has the best shot of developing into above average players in New Britain? Taking in a game on Saturday.

Mike Newman: This would be a great question for JD Sussman. He’s been to New Britain on multiple occasions this year and has info on them.

Comment From Riflemen
What’s your take on how the Tigers are handling Castellanos? They aggresively moved him through the system and after periods of adjustment he has responded. Is he a regular in the 2014 Tiger lineup?

Mike Newman: It always worries me when players are rushed, but Castellanos is responding. In the end, who am I to argue with their philosophy if it works?

Comment From Rick Pine
Who’s the guy no one has heard of yet that needs to be owned NOW in dynasty leagues?

Mike Newman: I don’t know if this is possible anymore, but this is exactly the kind of information I work to unearth for my ROTOscouting.com Newsletter subscribers. You may want to check it out.

Mike Newman: Well, it’s been fun, but I have to get going. Lots to do before heading to the park this evening. Thanks for joining me and we’ll do this again soon.