Monday Prospect Notes: 4/18/2022

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Jordan Brewer, OF, Houston Astros
Level & Affiliate: High-A Asheville Age: 24 Org Rank: TBD FV: 40
Weekend Line: 7-for-11, 3 HR, 2B, 3B, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 SB

Notes
Brewer has always had big tools (plus-plus speed, above-average raw power, a plus arm) and some late-bloomer qualities. He was draft eligible in 2018 at Lincoln Trail JC in Illinois and went unselected, but emerged after he transferred to Michigan and went in the third round in 2019. Brewer has barely played pro ball due to a combination of the pandemic and injuries, including a knee surgery. Even though he’s already 24, you could reasonably hope things will click for him on a delay because of the atypical amateur path and all the missed reps in pro ball. Brewer’s start to the 2022 season is what it would look like on paper if that was actually happening. He’s halfway to his 2021 home run total after just six games.

Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, Chicago White Sox
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Birmingham Age: 24 Org Rank: TBD FV: 35+
Weekend Line: 4-for-13, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K

Notes
While I continue to be skeptical of Céspedes because of his approach at the plate, his stock is absolutely up this spring because he is running much faster than last year and has given himself a chance to stay in center field. He has viable range out there now, and was posting average run times during the spring and looked plus under way. Céspedes does tend to get himself out by offering at early-count junk, but if he can stay in center, even for a little while, he has enough power to support some kind of part-time role despite what is likely to be a very low OBP. His All-World arm gives him another way to impact the game. Maybe the ball/strike recognition piece will still come; because of his defection and the pandemic, Céspedes barely saw pro-quality pitching in his early-20s, not really until last year.

Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A St. Paul Age: 22 Org Rank: 2 (64th overall) FV: 50
Weekend Line: 7-for-12, 3 2B, 3B, 2 K

Notes
Lewis’ swing has been toned way down, and his gut-high leg kick is gone. He’s starting with an open stance and utilizing a little toe tap now, while his hands are setting up the same as before. Lewis has enough strength to swing hard without all of that extraneous movement in his swing, and the simplicity of his new cut seems to have him on time a little more consistently, but it isn’t a panacea. The length in Lewis’ levers and his tendency to expand the zone are both likely to hinder his contact and keep his on-base ability below the league average. There’s definitely some hitting skill here, and Lewis looks best when he’s diving to the outer third of the plate, getting deep into his legs and driving pitches the other way. He looks Jeter-y when he does this, but overall, he continues to project as a low-OBP slugger. If there’s one thing that’s still not settled yet, it’s whether this new swing will help Lewis hit the ball in the air more often to help max out his power output. His groundball rates are down so far but the sample is too small to be meaningful, and probably needs another 4-6 weeks to cook.

Even with Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco ahead of him on the big league roster, the Twins have played Lewis exclusively at shortstop so far in 2022. He’s looked fine there. While he has below-average hands and actions and his throwing stroke can sometimes look odd and stiff, Lewis has big time range, a great internal clock, and he uses his athleticism in creative ways to hurl the ball to first base on time.

Roki Sasaki, SP, Chiba Lotte Marines
Level & League: NPB Age: 20 Int’l Rank: 2 FV: 55
Weekend Line: 8 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 14 K

Notes
Sasaki was three outs away from completing his second straight perfect game this past weekend. He has now retired more than 50 consecutive hitters and has 56 strikeouts and just two walks in four starts so far this season. Sasaki was already a legend by the time his high school career was over. There was a stretch when he was asked to throw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including all of a 12-inning complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer. He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB draft and had much more arm strength than the typical top-of-the-class arm in Japan, touching 101 mph and sitting around 97. Sasaki amassed a 1.98 ERA in 77 total innings across 15 starts split between the Eastern league (the minors in Japan, five starts) and Pacific League (their top league, 10 starts).

Remember that we’re talking about someone who was 19 at the time (Sasaki turned 20 in November). He mostly sat 93-98 mph with his fastball in 2021, but is throwing way harder this year, sitting 97-100 and touching 102. He also has a swing-and-miss splitter that has a ridiculous amount of movement considering it averages 90 mph, a three-tick bump from 2021. Sasaki’s slider is also very hard, typically 88-91, and he occasionally lobs in a curveball, but neither is as good as his splitter. If he ever learns to locate his breaking stuff consistently, then Sasaki would be a dominant big league starter if/when he comes to the states. Sasaki is built a little more narrowly than the prototypical starter but he’s still only 20, and while it’s scary how fast his arm moves, his delivery doesn’t have a lot of head and shoulder violence. He’s also performed in one of the world’s top leagues at a very young age and has elite stuff. Were he a college arm, he’d be the favorite to go first in his draft class now that the velo is back in its elite band. Were he on the Top 100, he’d rank somewhere in the 15-20 range.