Monday’s Early Game: TB @ BOS
Game time: 11:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rays: Jeff Niemann (R)
2 GS, 8.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 HR, 4.94 FIP, 5.34 xFIP.
Projected FIP: 4.13 (FAN) 4.61 (CHONE) 4.67 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.20 run reverse split in 205.0 IP
Red Sox: John Lackey (R)
2 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 K, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 3.88 FIP, 5.50 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.74 (FAN) 3.90 (ZiPS) 3.96 CHONE 4.18 Marcel
L-R Splits: 0.21 normal split in 1513.2 IP
The Red Sox will be looking to avenge three straight losses to the Rays and four straight overall. They appear to hold the pitching advantage in the last game of this four game set, as John Lackey will take the mound for the Red Sox. Although his 1.42 ERA looks great right now, Lackey has had some issues with control so far, issuing 6 walks against only 5 strikeouts. The ERA is a result of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as we can see from his high xFIP.
Lackey appears to have a completely new approach this year, as he has taken to throwing a cutter – 38% of his pitches have been classified as a cutter so far this year, a pitch with significantly less movement towards a right-handed hitter than his four-seam fastball. His cutter is averaging 89.5 MPH on the year, so far a significant drop off from the 91.6 he averaged on his go-to four-seam fastball last season. He hasn’t completely scrapped the four-seamer – he still uses it over 20% of the time – but the average velocity appears to be lower, sitting at 90.2. It’s very early in the season, but he’s only drawn 6 swinging strikes in 207 pitches – a paltry 2.9%. That number will need to rise for Lackey to be effective as the season continues.
Niemann, similarly, has a low ERA in his first two starts despite poor performance. Niemann hasn’t managed to strike batters out as of yet, and although a 1.08 BB/9 looks nice, he also has hit two batters in only 8.1 innings. His first start ended abruptly, as he was hit on the shoulder by a Miguel Tejada line drive.
Much like with Lackey, the use of a secondary fastball – in this case, a two-seamer – appears to be much more prominent in Niemann’s repertoire this season. Unlike Lackey’s cutter, Niemann’s two-seamer exhibits a sharper break towards a right-handed batter. In his April 13th start against Baltimore, the two-seamer drew 2 swinging strikes in only 27 pitchers, for a swinging strike rate of 7.41%. If his breaking pitches can draw more swinging strikes – only one between 33 changeups, sliders, and curveballs – an increased whiff rate on his fastballs should lead to more strikeouts and, naturally, more success for the second year pitcher.
Neither pitcher exhibits a strong platoon split, and so neither team should be looking to stack the lineup with lefties. Expect the normal lineups for each team today.
The CHONE projected standings originally showed the Red Sox 5 games ahead of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The FAN projections showed the Rays as within 2 at the start of the season. With the Rays taking the first three games of this series at Fenway Park, the Rays have closed the gap. This is an important game for the AL East and Wild Card races, even though it’s only April, as each team needs all the ground it can get.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Whatever you want to call Lackey’s main fastball, it’s pretty much the same pitch this year as it was last year. MLBAM called it a fastball last year and is calling it a cutter this year, but the pitch itself hasn’t changed much.
IMO, it’s on the borderline between designations anyway, so I don’t fault MLBAM for either choice, but there’s no indication that I see that Lackey is unveiling a new pitch or relying on anything more heavily so far this year.
The Pitch F/x data has been mis-classifying Niemann’s splitter, thus far this year. He’s throwing it more than the data is showing and it has shown to be a great swing and miss pitch.
Rocked
The Sox have no offense and the Rays are 35 men deep on their 40. Im thinking the Yanks or Sox are going to sitting at home come Oct. And all 3 of these teams might be the best in the game.
The Red Sox really are suffering in the early stages of the season, unless Ortiz, Youk and Beltre start hitting for power they could fall off the table.
Defense and good pitching simply isn’t enough, take the 2008 Phillies and 2009 Yankees for example, they had it all.
The Rays are just flat out scary right now.
Boston has a better offense than all but a handful of teams. They just happen to be in a division with two of them, and happen to be slumping at the moment. There’s nothing wrong with the Red Sox that a tour through the AL Central couldn’t fix.
Sometimes when you look at 2 teams playing each other, you have to consider how the teams are playing at the moment. A 500 team can get hot and play like a 600 team and vice versa.
Lackeys velocity is down from the 2nd half of last year, so it seems from the data. If this is real, it might be a sign his elbow is acting up, or nothing at all.
At the moment, the Red Sox are playing as bad as I have seen them since 2nd half 2006, and 2nd half 2001. It’s only been a small stretch against some good teams who have been hot and good pitching. Things should turn around against Texas and Baltimore who are next on the schedule. If not, then Red Sox fans should worry, but still too early to hit the panic button.
I don’t really know that we can say anything about Lackey’s velocity at this point. The gun in Minnesota (40% of his sample) was really low the entire series. It had Bard throwing at 93ish, and the starters in the high 80s.
So I guess we can conclude that John Lackey didn’t start this game at “Awesome O’Clock” (wut-evah).