Mookie Betts Is Dustin Pedroia All Over Again

A little more than a decade ago, an undersized, often-overlooked second baseman climbed the ranks through the minor leagues and made his debut in Boston, peppering line drives off the Green Monster in Fenway Park’s left field while capturing the hearts of Red Sox fans with his aggressive and well-rounded style of play.

After 10 years of Dustin Pedroia, watching Mookie Betts burst onto the scene over the last two years must be like déjà vu in Boston.

Of course, the players have their differences, the most obvious being Betts’ place in the outfield. His move from his natural place at second base was dictated by Pedroia’s presence at the position. But the similarities in stature, and approach, cannot be understated:

Mookie Betts vs. Dustin Pedroia, Career Numbers
Name AVG OBP ISO K% BB% wRC+ GB% LD% Pull% Pull wRC+ Non-Pull wRC+
Dustin Pedroia .299 .365 .145 10% 9% 116 45% 21% 42% 175 76
Mookie Betts .291 .348 .179 13% 8% 121 39% 20% 39% 254 65

In the early stages of his career, Betts has put the ball in the air a bit more often, and thus hit for a bit more power. Pedroia’s struck out less and gotten on base slightly more. But these differences are minuscule; both have an elite control of the strike zone due to their ability to make a ton of contact while possessing the eye to draw a good number of walks. And the most striking similarity is that both inflict massive damage to the pull field.

Highest pull-field wRC+, 2015

  1. Kris Bryant, 290
  2. Bryce Harper, 261
  3. Colby Rasmus, 260
  4. Edwin Encarnacion, 257
  5. Mookie Betts, 254

Last year, Betts was one of the five best pull hitters in the game, his name appearing alongside four of baseball’s best power hitters in overall pull production despite his 5-foot-9 frame. His power output to the pull side, admittedly aided somewhat by the Green Monster, exceeded that of Josh Donaldson’s. Pedroia, meanwhile, has been among baseball’s most consistent pull threats for a decade.

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Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis is quick to point out, though, that while both do the brunt of their damage to the pull side, neither hitter goes to the plate with a pull-field approach.

“They’re not extreme pull-hitters,” Davis said during Boston’s season-opening series in Cleveland. “I think Pedey is a better hitter when he uses the whole field, I think Mookie’s a better hitter when he uses the whole field. They just cover that inside pitch very well. The reason why they cover that pitch in very well is that their swing on that pitch in is so short and so direct and compact. It’s like an automatic area for them.”

BettsPedroiaFG
Heatmaps, from the catcher’s perspective, showing career SLG% with Pedroia on the left and Betts on the right

Both stand shorter than 5-foot-10, both do the majority of their damage to the pull field, both do so thanks to their ability to turn on the pitch middle-in. Yet, even with all those similarities, both players agree that up until the point of contact, there’s very few similarities in how they get there.

Let’s look at a couple home run swings to the pull field. Betts made it easy, by hitting one in his very first game of 2016. For Pedroia, we’ll go back to 2015.

BettsPedeyFG

A defining characteristic of Pedroia’s swing is his unusually long stride. Pedroia’s power is generated from his lower half, where his long stride allows him to drop the back shoulder and generate a bat path that can create loft, which might otherwise be difficult for a player of his height.

“With the stride, I’m just trying to create separation and generate power,” Pedroia said. “Everybody’s different. That’s how I put all 165 pounds into my swing. Once my foot gets down and I’m separated from that point, our bat paths are a little similar during our first movement toward the ball.”

If the defining characteristic of Pedroia’s swing is the stride, for Betts, it’s the hands. Pedroia described them as “lightning-quick.” Both he and Davis mentioned the exceptional rhythm in Betts’ swing, between his hands and his lower body. The violence found in Pedroia’s swing is fluidity in Betts’.

“Everything about him syncs up,” Davis said. “When he syncs up with his little hand rhythm and his load, when they sync up and he’s doing it all right, he is that much better of a hitter.”

“He’s got a little more rhythm with his lower body than I do,” Pedroia agreed, “which is going to put him in a better spot to consistently do it more. I think he weighs like 25 pounds more than me, so when they start pitching him away all the time, he’ll be able to drive the ball out to right field as he gets older.”

And Pedroia’s assumption is precisely what’s on Betts’ mind. The scouting report on Pedroia has been common knowledge for years — “they want me to hit singles to right, not doubles to left,” he said — and so it’s no surprise that more than 60% of the pitches Pedroia saw last season came on the outer-half, one of the 20 highest rates in baseball by a qualified hitter. The league was quick to adjust to Betts, too. In fact, his rate of outer-half pitches seen was identical to Pedroia’s. So they’re already “pitching him away all the time,” as Pedroia envisioned might happen in the future, and Betts is already focused on making the adjustment.

“You never want to lose a strength, but I’ve also got to try and be a complete hitter,” Betts said. “The great hitters use the whole field, and that’s a goal of mine. It doesn’t have to be right now, but eventually throughout my career I want to be able to use the whole field.”

Betts admitted that, at his current size, he probably isn’t going to be hitting opposite-field homers. He’s starting with an advantage in size over Pedroia, though, and with added strength, all parties feel confident that Betts could one day develop power to all fields. The Red Sox have been fortunate enough to have one Dustin Pedroia all these years, and now they’ve got another one. The scary part is, the new one is just 23, and he’s only getting better.





August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

21 Comments
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dudleyMember since 2016
10 years ago

nice, thanks eno! how did you get those pull-field wRC+ figures?

dudleyMember since 2016
10 years ago

thanks August! looks like Cory Spangenberg was really good at going the other way . . .

O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago

Still waiting for the Kiermaier articles, or any tacit recognition whatsoever. But hey, I heard this Boston player is pretty good a few times now.

Brians Sticky Sock
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

don’t be a douche canoe… saw your comment the other day

Damaso
10 years ago

This comparison might not look as good for Betts as it looks at first glance. So much of Pedey’s value has been tied up in his elite defense at a tough defensive position (+2.5 positional adjustment), and mookie will have his work cut out to try to match that in RF with its -7.5 adjustment.

But despite that imo Betts still has 2 avenues to make up for that – 1. he might be a notch better with the bat 2. his elite baserunning last year may be legit, and something pedey never had.

Spartacus
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

upvoted for the unbiased comment 🙂

Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  Spartacus

but maybe I’m always unbiased, and you only like nice things said about the red sox? 😉

(….cue the downvotes!!!)

Spartacus
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

Cubs fan…

but seriously, I think you make a lot of good points, but often you come off as just pro-Jays/ anti-Sox your message gets lost

(I have Betts & Swihart on my fantasy team)

Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

yeah i’m ornery and repetitive and don’t like the sox much so i’m a downvote magnet…but really, recent results seem to agree with my bias, not with fangraphs’ objectivity, so I’ll stick with my bias for now. i’m not sure fg has served red sox fans well in recent years.

p.s. my bias tells me to tell you that drafting swihart was a bad idea. 🙂

Luy
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

You’re not downvoted for being anti-Sox.
That you think this is the reason is about 87% of the problem.

Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

hmm, then it must be because I’m so dumb I don’t understand that the regressions at the heart of the projection systems are so rigorous that they render all simpler analyses irrelevant.

JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

Well and mookie has already played a full season at a younger age, pedey didn’t get a full season til he was 24, which mookie won’t turn until the season is over. So it’s kind of assuming his age 21 and 22 seasons are his standard vs pedeys peak.

Brock244
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

To be fair, Mookie seems like the better offensive player. Througj age 22, Betts alread has a 121 wRC+ and is projected for a 126 wRC+ In his age 23 season. Pedroia didn’t start playing full time until he was 24 and his career wRC+ is 116 and he only had 3 seasons with a wRC+ above 120. Not hard to think Betts is a 125-135 wRC+ hitter, while Pedroia was typically a 115ish wRC hitter.

Also, as you mentioned, Betts is much faster and should provide more base running value. Through almost 200 games Betts already almost has 11 bSR, and actually ranked the best base runner last season.

Pedroia, as you mentioned gets more positional value and defensive value however. That said, add it all up and Betts looks like anywhere from a 4.5-6.5 win player, similar to Pedroia

cole-
10 years ago
Reply to  Brock244

I think you (and others) are still selling Mookie a little short. The 123-126 wRC+ projections forecast very little improvement, and we’re talking about a player who is entering just his age-23 season. Consider he was at or above 160 wRC+ in all his upper minor stops, while young for each level and with reasonable sample sizes.

At age 22 he was already one of the MLB leaders in plate skills: 12th in SwStk, 17th in zone-Contact, 27th in chase%. He totaled 19 HR last year, 16 in 2014, and 16 in 2013, so the current power isn’t outlandish.

Whether or not we project growth, physically or as a player, there are still a lot of ways for Mookie to put up some gleaming numbers.

– Power growth: his 8.2% HR/FB can already tick upwards with good fortune and his home ballpark (and NYY/TOR/BAL). Does anyone doubt he can have some seasons at 15-16%? Jacoby’s big year was 16.7%, and it’s realistic to me for Mookie to hit that a few times. (tl;dr multiple potential 30 HR seasons)

– With his wheels, contact skills, batted ball profile and home park, he’ll have seasons with more favorable balls in play than the .310 he posted last year (and some worse). What’s reasonable on some occasions? .330, .340 babip? Maybe an outrageous year or two with .370? (result: There are some .320+ AVG seasons and increased OBP in him, pending babip/power surge.)

– His BB rate (7%) was the lowest of any professional season, and the only one clearly below double digits. If it trends in any direction, I’d guess up, and back towards 10%. He walked 46 times last year (at 7%), and would’ve walked 65 times at 10%. That would raise his OBP from .341 to .370! As his power threat increases, his walk rate can climb even higher. With inflated babip/power and a more usual walk rate, we can get to .390+ OBP.

– He didn’t run as often as he can (21 of 27 on swipes). Who knows if he’ll ever see a spike on the basepaths, but I wouldn’t rule out years with 30 or more swipes. He had 46 in 2013, 40 in 2014.

– Accumulated very little dWAR. This might not be helped with a move to RF, but I’m more inclined to believe that if he swings wide some years, it’ll be favorable more often than bad. This will just be a cherry on top if he grades incredibly well some years and bumps the total WAR up. (ie: an 8 WAR season becomes 9)

– Finally, he missed 17 games! aka, >10% of the season. What happens if we get to see a prime Mookie playing 160+ games at the top of the order, with baseline corrections, or maybe with good fortune/physical growth?

Last year: 654 PA, 597 AB, .310 BABIP, 8.2% HR/FB (on 42.4% FB), 7% BB
Result: .291/.341/.479, 174 H (106/42/8/18), 21 SB, 46 BB, 82 K, 6 SF
Goods: .351 wOBA, 119 wRC+, .188 ISO, 4.8 fWAR, 6.0 bWAR

– Projecting @ 730 PA, 40% FB (down from 42.4), maintaining 12.5% K rate (though I could see that improving, too)

Baseline: .320 BABIP, 10% HR/FB, 9% BB [+10 HBP/SAC = 654 AB], no dWAR
Result: .301/.371/.500 – 197 H (121/45/8/23), 25 SB, 66 BB, 91 K, 5 SF
Note: Mookie posted 68 XBH in 654PA last year so 76 is our equivalent at 730 PA. This is pretty conservative as it assumes his extra HR are only coming from other XBH, and none from converting some deep fly outs.
Goods: .371 wOBA, .199 ISO, ~6 to 6.5 WAR (2015 Comps: Arenado, Pollack, Bryant, Machado)

Top end: .340 BABIP, 14% HR/FB, 11% BB [+10 HBP/SAC = 640 AB], plus dWAR
Result: .326/.400/.565 – 209 H (126/44/8/31), 40 SB, 80 BB, 91 K, 5 SF
Note: Jacoby put up 83 XBH in 2011, so 83 here seems fair.
Goods: .411 wOBA, .239 ISO, ~9 WAR (2015 Comps: Mike Trout)

I’m even trying to be realistic with the top end rates here. In all likelihood he’ll have seasons ABOVE .340 BABIP, 14% HR/FB, or 11% BB (though not necessarily together).

As it relates to your post:

1) Yes, we’re seeing someone that has a baseline of 4.5-6.5 WAR, but I think closer to 6.5 of the two (6 bWAR last year). His upper end, which he should reach a few times, is somewhere in the 9 WAR range. As you and others have said, higher power/speed/babip potential than Peddy, but less likely to have huge defensive seasons.

2) 125-135 wRC+ seems fair, but he’s pretty much already there with no correction. Don’t be surprised by a few seasons 140 or 150 and up.

To me, we’re talking about someone who, with good health, is a hall-of-fame player. Might be early for some people to hear that, but that was my read when he was in the minors and he has only encouraged that stance since. Will we ever be fortunate enough to see the top end of these numbers together, like Jacoby in 2011 (less 50+ steals on great percentages)? I hope so. Even if not, we’ll probably be projecting ~5-6 WAR per over the next 9 seasons, which would put him at ~51.7 at age 32 (to Pedroia’s 41.1).

Let’s try some career comps:
– Utley (123 wRC+, 61.2 fWAR, 236 HR, 143 SB, only 6773 PA)
– Alomar (118 wRC+, 63.6 fWAR, 210 HR, 474 SB, 10400 PA)
– Molitor (122 wRC+, 67.7 fWAR, 234 HR, 504 SB, 12167 PA)
– Beltran (120 wRC+, 66.1 fWAR, 393 HR, 311 SB, 9937 PA)
– Jeter (119 wRC+, 71.8 fWAR, 260 HR, 358 SB, 12602 PA)
– Brett (132 wRC+, 84.6 fWAR, 317 HR, 201 SB, 11625 PA)

How about..
– McCutchen (145 wRC+, 40.5 fWAR, 151 HR, 154 SB, 4518 PA, .198 ISO, .337 BABIP, lots of similarities in plate/batted ball profile)

ice_hawk10
10 years ago

Pedroia was all about the monster though. pretty punchless .126 ISO on the road for his career. Mookie has legit power.

Manny RamirezMember since 2016
10 years ago

Mookie could be decent. He’s no Starlin Castro, but he’s alright.

Joey Butts
10 years ago

Oh thank god. Saw the headline, was afraid that Betts had gotten injured already.

redsoxu571
10 years ago
Reply to  Joey Butts

While your comment is humorous, I need to also make sure you realize that the “fact” it’s based on isn’t true.

Pedroia was fully healthy as a rookie in 2007, only not playing 150+ games because he was not seen early on as the sure full-time starter.

Then in the six seasons from age 24 to 29, Pedroia played in 154+ games four times, 141 games in another season, and finally only missed serious time in 2010, and that was only because of a broken bone resulting from a contact (read: fluke) injury). In other words, through his age-based prime, Pedroia was a perfectly healthy player.

Pedroia has indeed suffered the minor/nagging injuries typical of an aging or injury prone player, but it’s only been two seasons since then. So it’s not a given that he’s injury prone now and for the rest of his career, and more importantly, it certainly is rather silly to characterize his career around injury.

Joey Butts
10 years ago
Reply to  redsoxu571

Thanks man, I appreciate the vote of confidence.