More Mainstream Sabermetrics Thoughts

Last week, Dan Novick of Statistically Speaking wrote a post discussing the current relationship of sabermetrics and the mainstream in an attempt to figure out why advanced statistical analysis is not more popular. Dave Cameron responded here, largely pointing out that sabermetrics have in fact been integrated into the mainstream, with links to our posts popping up at ESPN and the Wall Street Journal, and teams reaching out to hire very solid analysts in order to bolster their operations staff.

Even further, the MLB Network is using ERA+ in their Prime 9 series, and ESPN showed OPS numbers in their lower-third graphics in last night’s Phillies-Braves season opener. It is undeniable that great strides have been made but I still do not believe that sabermetrics are necessarily mainstream… and, to be quite honest, I am glad.

This might seem like a counterintuitive statement from an analyst like myself, but I look at things differently than others. I’m not in this game to prove a greater knowledge than the casual fan, nor am I in this field to constantly berate mainstream analysis or the opinions of commentators who still think batting average is the mecca of number-crunching. Certain members of the sabermetrics crowd certainly fall into this category, but my goal has always been to increase the wisdom of anyone willing to listen. If there is one thing I have learned in my 23 years on this planet, it would be that convincing someone to agree with you while they steadfastly hold onto their own belief is incredibly futile. I’m not going to waste time trying to convert batting average advocates into the wOBA faithful.

If sabermetrics were truly ingratiated with the mainstream, the wonderful analysis found here, at The Book Blog, The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and all of the other analysis-oriented blogs/sites might not exist. We could instead turn to Sportscenter to find out Win Values leaders, or listen to Joe Morgan discuss the benefits of UZR. I get as ticked off as anyone else when announcers ramble on about RBIs or when Harold Reynolds and Barry Larkin express their desire for quality .215 hitters, but I love being able to analyze the game from a different perspective. If sabermetrics were the norm, the outlets to do so would be few and far between, and would instead be hogged by the Plaschke’s, Mariotti’s, and Paige’s of the world.

I thoroughly enjoy receiving random Facebook friend requests from readers of my work, or looking over in a computer lab at school and seeing someone reading posts on this site. In a relatively small group, one can not only make a real difference in the field in question, but can also truly feel the impact.

People have very specific comfort zones which is the primary reason I feel sabermetrics are not more popular. When the “old-time” baseball people scoff at the idea of analysis, they are criticizing change moreso than the information itself. It gets pretty ridiculous when they go onto criticize those providing the information, which is where much of the hullabaloo of stats vs. scouts is derived.

Sabermetrics are definitely finding their way into more mainstream outlets, but they are not fully accepted by the bigger piece of the population pie, and this particular writer is perfectly fine with that fact. For anyone interested and willing to listen, thereby increasing their knowledge of the game and understanding of how players actually contribute from a production standpoint, all of us here at Fangraphs will always do our best to provide top of the line advanced statistical analysis. For the uninterested parties who will never read these words, all I ask is that you accept the benefits analysis like this can provide even if you choose not to utilize such information.

Ultimately, this plea may go unheard for quite some time. Before sabermetrics can truly get to its mainstream apex, those opposing the form of analysis need to get past their own personal aversions to change. Human nature says such a conversion is unlikely to take place, but before we list all of the baseball-related reasons for sabermetric resistance, look first to those actually resisting, as their reasoning likely deals much moreso with personal makeup than anything like fantasy baseball. For now, we just have to deal with the fact that the wonderful pool of statistical analysts and the loyal readers who flock to our sites hoping to increase their wisdom are in the minority, and we need to understand that being in this minority is in no way a bad thing.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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Bronx Baseball Daily
14 years ago

I think stuff like this just takes a long time to work it’s way into the game. People forget that there are a great deal of very old, very young, and very casual fans who don’t understand sabermetrics at all. You can’t just dump this stuff on them all at once. It happens over time.

I think eventually the time will come when RBI’s aren’t discussed, but it could be quite a while longer.

Logan
14 years ago

I wouldn’t put it all on the old, young or casual. I think almost anybody can understand OBP or OPS instead of batting average. The problem is most game broadcasts still focus on the triple crown stats(and strikeouts) instead.

I can understand not getting into more in depth things like wOBA. Also using fielding percentage(ugh) for players since most advanced defensive metrics are still in the early stages.