My Hypothetical NL MVP Ballot

A year ago, I cast an actual ballot for the National League MVP, agreeing with most of my fellow BBWAA members that Clayton Kershaw was the league’s best and most valuable player. The downside of having a ballot was that I couldn’t really talk too much about my thought process in the run-up to to the ballots actually being cast, since the association requests we keep our votes private until after the results are announced.

This year, I’m voting for the NL Cy Young, where choosing a winner is basically an impossible task. So, instead of tying myself in more knots trying to pick a winner in the thing I actually have some say in, I’m going to write a couple posts about the MVP races instead, with the NL today and the AL tomorrow. If I had a ballot again this year, this is how it would look, at least with a few games left to go; in most cases, there isn’t enough time left in the season to move the needle enough to change positions here, and realistically, there isn’t much of a difference between down-ballot spots anyway.

Anyway, here are my 10 picks for a hypothetical NL MVP ballot this year.

#1. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington

Harper’s been the best player in baseball this year, carrying a team that was a dumpster fire nearly everywhere except right field. The team was a disappointment, and won’t be playing in October, but that’s in spite of Harper’s efforts to make up for the uninspired play of his teammates, not because of it. And yes, I believe there is value in every win, even ones that don’t result in a playoff berth. This is an individual award, and no individual stood out more in 2015 than Harper. I’m sure he’d much rather have had a winning season, but he played like a winner this year, and deserves recognition for his own achievements.

#2A. Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago

#2B. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles

#2C. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles

Okay, so, two things here:

1. I legitimately don’t know how I’m going to order these three in my Cy Young vote, and I want to wait until Sunday to see how the final weekend plays out before I commit in any direction. I also don’t want to break the spirit of the keep-your-vote-quiet rule by hinting at which way I might be leaning at the moment, so clustering these three allows me to feel okay discussing their merits on the MVP ballot without spoiling my potential Cy Young vote.

2. These three pitchers all really do belong near the top of MVP ballots. The gap between Harper and the next best position player in the NL is currently 2.3 WAR, and even adjusting for context-dependent performance, the hitters next tier of hitters aren’t really having more impact on their teams than these three aces. I know voters have generally had a tendency to ignore great pitching performances in MVP voting under the “they have their own award” copout, but if we can all mostly agree that Kershaw was the MVP last year, we should be able to acknowledge that three pitchers (Kershaw included) having better years than Kershaw did last year belong near the top of this year’s ballot too.

So, yeah, I’m not picking between these three yet. But I’d absolutely have all three in my top four. They are among the primary reasons their teams are in the postseason, and all deserve recognition, regardless of the fact that the Cy Young Award also exists.

#5. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati

Like with Harper, Votto’s team is not going to the postseason, and that may very well hurt him when it comes to the actual balloting, but the Reds first baseman couldn’t have done much more to salvage his team’s season. Because of Harper’s amazing season, he doesn’t lead the NL in too many offensive categories, but he’s sixth in batting average, second in on base percentage, and even fourth in slugging percentage, showing legitimate power in addition to his prodigious on-base skills. That combination puts him second in context-neutral offensive runs above average, and he’s also second in RE24, which adjusts for the value of moving baserunners. So, no, his RBI doesn’t tell you anything besides the fact that the Reds leadoff hitters sucked this year, and yes, Votto was indeed one of the league’s best players this year.

#6. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago

The Cubs third baseman hasn’t just been the league’s best rookie this year, he’s been one of the best player overall. Not only has he shown the kind of power and line drive skills that were expected, he’s also proven to be a quality defender at third base, and somewhat surprisingly, an excellent baserunner as well. Bryant’s well-rounded skillset has made him the Cubs best position player, but he rates this highly on my ballot in part because he’s also been the most clutch hitter in the National League this year. His context-neutral numbers are excellent on their own, but Bryant has been even better when he’s had runners on base or in high leverage situations, so he’s allocated his offensive production to the most important at-bats he was given. As I wrote last week, I think there is room for context-specific performance in backwards-looking awards voting, and Bryant gets a boost because of how he’s distributed his hits this year.

#7. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh

The Pirates star center fielder is just ho-humming his way to another pedestrian +6 win season (his fourth in a row), but this one might be the most amazing of all, considering he began the year with a bum knee that sapped all of his power. Back in April, it wasn’t clear whether Cutch was going to be able to contribute much to the Pirates this year, after he ran an 81 wRC+ and was clearly unable to perform at his expected levels. But then the calendar flipped to May, and he’s put up a .307/.420/.514 line ever since, once again leading the Pirates back to the postseason. The injury did take some of his speed, so he was more of just a hitter this year than an all-around offensive threat, but when you’re this good of a hitter and you can play center field, then you’re one of the most valuable players in baseball.

#8. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago

Bryant wasn’t the only Cubs hitter posting a quality season this year, and he wasn’t the only Cubs hitter to distribute his hits in about the most effective fashion possible either; like Bryant, Rizzo had very good context-neutral numbers that look even better when you adjust for his terrific clutch performances. He 37 offensive runs above average are good for fourth in the NL, but by RE24, he was 60 runs above average, behind only Harper and Votto, and his clutch rating (which adds in leverage, rather than just baserunner state) was third best in the NL as well. When you take a good overall performance, then distribute the hits towards the most impactful situations, you end up with a guy who actually leads the NL in Win Probability Added, ahead of even Harper. His context-neutral numbers might not stack up against some others, but Rizzo’s impact on the Cubs this year can’t be understated.

#9. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona

Votto’s west coast clone, the paragraphs written about the Reds first baseman apply the Diamondbacks star as well. He’s continues to establish himself as one of the game’s very best hitters, only overshadowed this year by Harper’s astounding season and Votto’s remarkable second half. Goldschmidt isn’t just a hitter, either; thanks in large part to his 21 stolen bases, Goldschmidt was worth nearly four additional runs on the bases, making him a truly complete offensive player. And he plays quality defense at first base. There’s not much more you can ask for in a franchise player than what Paul Goldschmidt gives Arizona on a daily basis.

#10. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco

This spot could easily go to either A.J. Pollock or Jason Heyward, both terrific defensive outfielders having very good offensive seasons as well, but in the category of guys who provide value in the field while also hitting well, I’m going to go with the best catcher in baseball instead. Posey might rate behind both in WAR, but our model doesn’t include much of a catcher’s defensive contributions at the moment, and Posey ranks as one of the best pitch-receiving backstops in the game. With his contributions on both side of the ball, Posey remains a true superstar.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

184 Comments
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Chris
8 years ago

You cite the difference in WAR between Harper and the hitters below him but ignore the difference in WAR between Kershaw and the others- 1.4 above Arrieta, and 2.7 above Greinke. If you’re just going by who pitched the best, it’s Kershaw and it’s really not that close. This is the last place I thought I’d read a piece saying that it’s a toss-up.

Kevin
8 years ago
Reply to  Chris

Who knew there were other metrics besides WAR?

KingComma
8 years ago
Reply to  Chris

You cite one portion of Dave’s article but ignore another where he says he’s not going to discuss pitchers in enough detail to make his likely Cy Young vote known.

Zach
8 years ago
Reply to  Chris

Obviously can’t speak for Dave, but I would assume that he’d say something along the lines of that when you are talking about awards, using metrics that strip out info and or make assumptions about regression isn’t really useful. FIP is real useful for predicting the future, but I’d imagine that just as Dave cites clutch stats for several of the position players in the piece, he wouldn’t want to ignore things like stranding runners when deciding how valuable a player was over an already-concluded season.

K
8 years ago
Reply to  Zach

How has this “FIP is about projections” thing not died yet?

Splitting the difference between rWAR and fWAR is a good idea, but it’s not because FIP is known to be less accurate or less real than RA. It’s because we don’t know how much responsibility to assign to pitchers for RA; we just know that 100% and 0% are both bad answers.

jpg
8 years ago
Reply to  K

Exactly. Just because FIP a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself, that doesn’t make it any less relevant for discussing who the best pitcher was this year.

CircleChange11
8 years ago
Reply to  K

I think, at this point, it is just to be different. Unique. Have their/our own metric.

Matt
8 years ago
Reply to  Chris

There is a crucial difference. As he said MVP and CYA are backwards looking. Pitching WAR here uses FIP which is more forward looking. ERA is more backward looking. So you have to consider that when looking at WAR in terms of these awards. FWIW I would vote Kershaw, I just don’t think your comment adequately accounts for this difference.

Marc
8 years ago
Reply to  Matt

This is a false narrative that has been established repeatedly in the comments section recently which is a little troubling. FIP is entirely “backwards looking” – it just makes the assumption that the only things that are pitcher can control are home run rate, strikeouts, and walks. It is not meant to be predictive but to remove the influence of defenses in pitcher evaluation.

That being said, Cameron has reportedly mentioned he is unsure as to just how valid the above assumption is, due to some pitchers generating weak contact, and has shown a mixed usage between RA evaluation and fielding independent evaluation, which shows itself in the evaluation of the three pitchers in this list.

Marc
8 years ago
Reply to  Marc

repeatedly over reportedly, oops

Lanidrac
8 years ago
Reply to  Marc

It doesn’t really matter how much of BABIP can be controlled in this situation, as we’re purely looking at past results of actual run prevention. Besides, there’s probably also some skill in stranding baserunners like thriving psychologically under pressure or simply pitching better out of the stretch as Trevor Rosenthal has proven after abandoning the windup this year. As such, ERA should be the primary metric used, which of course gives Greinke the advantage.

K
8 years ago
Reply to  Marc

“Besides, there’s probably also some skill in stranding baserunners like thriving psychologically under pressure or simply pitching better out of the stretch as Trevor Rosenthal has proven after abandoning the windup this year. As such, ERA should be the primary metric used.”

This is a non sequitur. ERA gives the pitcher 100% of the responsibility for balls in play, which everyone knows is not correct. More importantly, it necessarily includes the performances of other players in a measure that purports to be measuring only individual performance.

100% is just as wrong as 0%, but at least 0% (FIP) is only measuring individual performance.

brian
8 years ago
Reply to  Matt

FIP isn’t forward looking. It’s stripping out fielding.

hgfv
8 years ago
Reply to  brian

Not just fielding, balls in play. We know pitchers have relatively little ability to reproduce their performance on balls in play, but we don’t know how much of their performance at any given time is a result of something that they did or just a result of randomness.

Ernie Camacho
8 years ago
Reply to  brian

And sequencing.

Brian
8 years ago
Reply to  brian

And sequencing. Good point. Still not forward looking though.

Brian
8 years ago
Reply to  brian

FIP isn’t perfect, I’m not saying it is. But it isn’t forward looking as I’ve seen people say recently. It’s all about past performance. It’s just the past performance in Ks, BBs and HRs allowed.

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  Chris

It’s also worth noting that Kershaw faced a significantly tougher group of opposing offenses this season than Arrieta. I fully expect Jake to win the award due to Kershaw fatigue and the Dodgers splitting votes, but there’s no question that Clayton has been the best pitcher in the National League this season. He’s walked 6 fewer batters and struck out 65 more than Arrieta.

Jason B
8 years ago
Reply to  jdbolick

I do think fatigue was a factor when, say, Michael Jordan lost an MVP award to Karl Malone (just as one example). But I think a vote for Arrieta or Greinke in this case is more a legitimate belief that they were better than Kershaw this year. There’s ample evidence to build very compelling cases for either (and for Kershaw also).

TimBeam
8 years ago
Reply to  jdbolick

Better opposing offenses? Arrieta has had to face the Pirates and the Cardinals all season. And no hit your Dodgers. All 3 pitchers absolutely would blow the competition out of the water any other year in Cy Young voiting. It’s incredible that all 3 are playing so well. Arrieta is pitching historically well since the ASB FWIW

Ivdown
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

How does anyone still think the Cardinals have a good offense? I’d really like to know. Do me a favor, just look at the team leaderboards and go by wRC+, the Central is filled with average or worse offensive teams. The NL West is like that too except for the Giants and the Dodgers 3rd or 4 last I checked. People need to just stop assuming that the central is a good hitting division.

Ivdown
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

Also, the only thing historic about Arrieta’s second half is the ERA. This isn’t to say a 0.80 second half ERA isn’t incredible, but take a peak at this second half comparison:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=31&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2036,4153

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

Better opposing offenses? Arrieta has had to face the Pirates and the Cardinals all season. And no hit your Dodgers.

Yes, better opposing offenses. Kershaw’s opposing lineups have averaged 13.9th this season in runs scored whereas Arrieta’s have averaged 18th. And while I would love to be the owner of the Dodgers, I’m actually an Orioles fan. If you look at the numbers, it is blindingly obvious that Kershaw has been much more dominant this season than Arrieta. Jake has the ERA argument, but if you apply that then Greinke trumps him there.

Arrieta is pitching historically well since the ASB FWIW

That’s true, and if there was an award for best pitching performance since the All-Star break, I would definitely vote for him.

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

Strike that last comment. Ivdown just showed that Kershaw has been better since the All-Star break as well.

Feeding the Abscess
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

Simply going by runs scored per team is not a good metric of opposing offenses faced when looking at pitchers. For example, the Rockies are 5th in runs scored, but worst in baseball by wRC+ against lefties. Kershaw has faced them 5 times this season, three of them in LA. The Rockies are also the worst offense in baseball on the road. In one of the matchups in Coors, the temperature was 41 degrees.

Conversely, the Pirates and Cardinals are bottom 10 offenses against lefties. The Cardinals jump to 4th by wRC+ against righties, the Pirates 8th.

My Left Arm
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

Maybe…just maybe…the Rockies are last in WRC+ against lefties this season BECAUSE they faced CLAYTON KERSHAW five times this year.

Feeding the Abscess
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

32.1 IP, 26 H, 14 R, 12 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 39 K

That’s his line against Colorado this season. Good, but not great, and not the reason Colorado is last both on the road and against lefties. Especially considering his totals represent under 10% of the PA the Rockies have accumulated versus lefties.

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

I agree that runs scored isn’t ideal, but it’s still indicative and was the easiest thing for me to calculate quickly.

pretty sure
8 years ago
Reply to  TimBeam

argumentum magis ex pigritia is a logical fallacy

No
8 years ago
Reply to  jdbolick

Saying there is “no question” that ANY of these guys was the best pitcher in the NL this season is just silly.

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  No

There’s no question that Kershaw was the best pitcher in the National League this season.

Bipmember
8 years ago
Reply to  No

I don’t know, still, how you can say there is “no question”. I might agree that there is little question that Kershaw remains, as far as we can discern, the best true-talent pitcher in the MLB, but that does not itself imply that he had the best season. Unless you’ve settled the debate yourself, any sabermetrician would tell you that the three pitchers have been remarkably close this year, in terms of just what they did in the past season.

jdbolick
8 years ago
Reply to  No

They’re actually not close to anyone who believes that BABIP is mostly out of the pitcher’s control.

Buy Me a Cy Young
8 years ago
Reply to  jdbolick

This comment is exactly why I came to FanGraphs today. I want to see if anyone has developed a stat for pitchers that takes into account every single batter faced and that batter’s individual stats (say OPS) and combines them into a meaningful metric for the entire season.

Example: Total OPS of all batters faced/number of batters faced. I think the OPS should be as of the time the batter was faced (rather than end of year OPS) to account for outside factors such as playing through injury.

I would do it myself, but I don’t know where to access a spreadsheet of all the relevant data except to make it myself, which involves going through game logs and day by day player stats.

Maybe there’s something similar? Anyone know?