Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 10/22/14

Neil Weinberg: Afternoon, all. We’ll get started at 3pm. Fill up the queue with your stats, data, FanGraphs type questions and then anything else related to baseball that might be on your mind.

I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you want to get in touch that way, too.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s get started.

Neil Weinberg: Remember that we have live blogs during each world series game if you need more of this kind of thing. I will likely be hosting Saturday/Game 4.

Comment From mtsw
If AL teams were given the option to forego having a DH (their pitcher must bat) in exchange for being able to play an extra fielder (giving them 10 men in the field at once) would it be worth the tradeoff to do so?

Neil Weinberg: Let’s do some quick research

Neil Weinberg: AL DH: .327 wOBA
AL P: .101 wOBA

Neil Weinberg: Now let’s assume that they would only get 2 AB per game instead of 4 and PH would be around .320. So let’s call it a .210 wOBA compared to .327…. then let’s assume that batting more often would make them a little better, call it .227 for ease. So it’s .100 points of wOBA. That’s like 50 runs of lost offense. Can’t imagine the fielder could bring that back, even factoring in the compound effect.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
what contract do you think brandon mccarthy gets? I was just doing the contract crowdsourcing and having a tough time.

Neil Weinberg: Probably 2/25 or 3/30.

Comment From Spencer00
Will there be /600 PA projections for all projection systems?

Neil Weinberg: Probably, but I don’t know for certain.

Comment From Dom
Doesn’t scaling statistics to the league average of each year ignore the fact that the quality of competition is highly variable between eras? Are Babe Ruth’s home runs really more impressive than say, Bonds’ just because no one else was hitting them at the time? Ruth wasn’t playing against a worldwide talent pool that included blacks, latinos, etc..

Neil Weinberg: We can’t really say. We want to compare a player to his era, so hitting .400 wOBA in 2014 is way better than in 2000 given the offensive environment, but is .400 wOBA in 2014 the same as a .400 wOBA in a similar environment in the 1930s or whatever….obviously not. But it’s kind of hard to nail that down. Babe Ruth wouldn’t be BABE RUTH today, but I’m not sure how much that matters.

Comment From Spencer00
Will per 600 PA projections be added to player pages?

Neil Weinberg: I believe so?

Comment From Pale Hose
From a theoretical perspective do you think park effects impact all players equally? I tend to think that great players are great regardless of environment, but marginal players may need every advantage to be successful.

Neil Weinberg: Players have different styles, so one size fits all park factor isn’t going to be perfect. Think about extreme pull hitters, for example. It doesn’t matter how the ball carries to the opposite field for them, but that might have a real impact on the PF.

Comment From zurzles
I know this has been answered before but I couldn’t for the life of me find anything. How is historical UZR calculated? How reliable is it?

Neil Weinberg: There is no historical UZR. Our old defensive data is based on Total Zone, which is an approximation based on play by play data when available and box score type data at the minimum. So it’s mostly, like UZR except we don’t know how hard the ball was hit, the location beyond the player it was hit to, the weather, etc. So it’s worse than UZR. Over a career, it works well enough, but for one season it’s basically a hint. A +10 TZ means he’s more likely good than bad, but it doesn’t tell you much more

Comment From Dom
Does a larger outfield, like the K, really lead to more hits just because there’s more grass? Parks with smaller dimensions create hits (HR’s) that would sometimes be fly outs I would think.

Neil Weinberg: More space = more hits, typically speaking. But you can’t ignore the weather and atmosphere for any park either. The way the ball carries and the amount of space both matter

Comment From Dom
How many years is someone going to give Hanley?

Neil Weinberg: Five?

Comment From Gary
Anytime anyone asks about the guts of some metric on Fangraphs, whoever is running the chat says that’s not their department. Who actually runs the guts of these things (aside from UZR which I know is from MGL and DRS which is from BIS)?

Neil Weinberg: Certain stats aren’t FG created (such as UZR, UBR, etc), so the writers don’t know all the technical details. David Appelman handles most (all?) of the actual coding, with input on the creation and adjustments from people like Dave and some of the more technical stat people on staff. Or sometimes they talk with outside people like Tango, MGL, etc.

Neil Weinberg: For example, no one at FG invented wOBA, but FG implemented it. wRC+ was sort of created as a more accurate OPS+ and that came out of conversations with Tango, for example.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
If Barry Bonds was coming off of his 10.5 WAR 1993 season and was set to hit free agency at age 29- in 2014 what contract would he get? Miguel Cabrera Esque?

Neil Weinberg: Bigger. 10/400? $35MM per season would be the floor.

Comment From zurzles
Are scoops incorporated into 1b UZR? Is there any correlation year to year?

Neil Weinberg: Scoops are not in UZR. It is a skill, but the talent spread is pretty small. I think we’re talking about 5-7 runs between worst and first per season. Small blindspot, but only because the data wasn’t available. Probably gets folded in at some point.

Comment From The Guest
If baseball went to an automated strikezone, do you think teams would then be ok with catchers back there who are not great receivers?

Neil Weinberg: To some extent. Receiving also influences how well you hold runners, but it would change the game. Also, pitchers have preferences about how a guy receives a ball. I don’t know how much that would change their real performance, but it’s something

Neil Weinberg: You wouldn’t just put stone hands behind the plate, but obvious it would hurt Lucroy’s value relative to the average catcher

Comment From Pale Hose
Thanks to your help I built a cool WAR calculator for hitters. Are you interested in taking a look?

Neil Weinberg: Gladly. Tweet me a link if it’s public or if it isn’t ask me for my email on Twitter. I have an old one build, but it needs to be updated. Planning to release it again once I get to updating pitcher WAR too.

Comment From Pale Hose
Also, where is player of the year results?

Neil Weinberg: Delayed, briefly!

Comment From DavidJ
Why is the rank order for RE24 and REW sometimes different? I always thought it was because the runs-to-wins conversion included a park adjustment, but I’ve seen you state in previous chats that a park adjustment is already included in RE24. So what is it, then, that sometimes results in a player having a higher REW than another despite having a lower RE24?

Neil Weinberg: Wait, really? I don’t see why that would happen, although I don’t really know if we do anything special to create REW. Can take a look.

Comment From Guest
How do you think Jay Bruce will play next year? Bounce back well or below his past performance?

Neil Weinberg: Better than this year, but he’s already peaked. 110 wRC+?

Comment From Dom
Do you buy the notion that outfielders from Japan have found more success than infielders because “the MLB game is faster” in the infield and the imports can’t keep up?

Neil Weinberg: That’s possible. I don’t know enough about the NPB to say for sure. Also not sure if the success rates are really that different or if we’re just blinded by a couple of very successful OF

Comment From Guest
If you assume MLB was pro-robot umpires, how ready is the technology to implement that? Could it be a possibility for next year (if the MLB wanted it)?

Neil Weinberg: I believe so. They would have to figure out exactly how to deal with communicating the call and decide on an official strike zone, but the technology can locate the pitch accurately and quickly enough

Comment From zurzles
Are park factors from later years incorporated into previous year figures? Ie are Colorado player stats from the first year or two in Coors unreliable because they only use one or two years of PF figures? (Not to mention Mile High…) Can we expect this year’s WAR numbers to change if PFs in future years alter the multiple-year averages?

Neil Weinberg: Park factors are regressed more if there is less data. So new parks, for instance, are treated as average until they demonstrate otherwise, if that makes sense. Park factors are the easiest thing in the world to explain conceptually and tough to do in practice. Will do a thing over the offseason about how we do them

Comment From Guest
bello

Neil Weinberg: This is not me. He likely has more money that I do, but I have more hair!

Comment From Dom
Do you think we’ll ever see a legitimate two-way player?

Neil Weinberg: Like pitcher and hitter? I don’t like to say never, but not in the current paradigm. Maybe in 40 years

Comment From a confused horse
Are all of the “writers” for NotGraphs creations of Cistulli? Are all of the “writers” for FanGraphs creations of Cistulli? Is everything I perceive a creation of Cistulli?

Neil Weinberg: If I said no, wouldn’t you wonder if my answer was just generated by Carson to throw you off the trail.

Comment From The Guest
Seems like having four outfielders for your flyball starters or five infielders for your groundball starters would be pretty drastic

Neil Weinberg: In reference to the earlier discussion, I’m just not sure there are 50 runs to save using this strategy, and that’s assuming you PH effectively and the pitchers learn to hit a little better, before factoring in an increase in injuries from hitting. You’d have to save two runs a week, basically. That’s hard to do.

Comment From Guest
Jeff mentioned yesterday that Bumgarner’s 3.6 WAR v. 2.99 xFIP over 217 IP could be explained by park and league adjustment. But isn’t xFIP already park-adjusted?

Neil Weinberg: No

Neil Weinberg: Here, let’s look at Madison’s line.

Neil Weinberg: 217 IP, 3.05 FIP. 3.6 fWAR. Plus 23 IFFB, which go into WAR.

Neil Weinberg: Strasburg for example, 215 IP, 2.94 FIP, 4.3 fWAR (just 12 IFFB)

Neil Weinberg: So same innings, but basically the same FIP when you consider IFFBs. Why such a big gap?

Neil Weinberg: Giants have a 93 PF and Nats have 100.

Neil Weinberg: So Bumgarner’s FIP- is 89 and Strasburg’s is 79!

Neil Weinberg: Basically all park.

Comment From Dom
I feel bad for the Rockies. Their hitters appear to be at a disadvantage on the road adjusting to breaking pitches at normal altitude. It’s hard for them to attract pitching free agents while at the same time position players do not give them discounts just to play at altitude. Seems like a really tough environment to constuct a baseball team?

Neil Weinberg: It is. I wonder if MLB had any idea this would happen when they put the team there, and if an indoor park would have helped.

Comment From LM
Why doesn’t Michael Jordan have a Fangraphs page? Because he never made it to the majors?

Neil Weinberg: Think we only have minor league player pages back to a certain year.

Comment From Matt
Ubaldo got 4Y/$50M. JDLR got 2Y/$25. How crazy is the market for bad pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: Teams dream on the past. Only takes one.

Comment From Pale Hose
If you had to guess, how many fielders would it take before we start seeing diminishing returns by adding another fielder?

Neil Weinberg: I think probably six infielders and five outfielders, so 13? Although, you could probably push that to 15 if your goal was to put three guys on the bases and tell them not to field anything that makes them move their feet.

Comment From Gorgorc
Which is your preferred basis for pitcher WAR: FIP, xFIP or SIERA?

Neil Weinberg: FIP.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
UZR takes weather into account?

Neil Weinberg: Each park’s average temp/altitude/etc are included in the UZR park adjustment, I believe.

Comment From Guest
Asdrubel Cabrera a fit for the Tigers?

Neil Weinberg: Probably not, unless Iglesias has a setback.

Comment From Gorgorc
Would you support a penalty for teams that roster steroid abusers? It seems like franchises (and the league) both profit from players drug-bolstered stats (winning more games, selling more tickets) … then profit again when they get to write off aging ex-roider’s salaries (think A-Roid). Seems hypocritical.

Neil Weinberg: In theory, I think the team should have to pay the salary to a charity, or disperse it to the rest of the league or something.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
10/400 for barry, and they didnt even know he wasnt done putting up 10 WAR seasons…haha unbelievable.

Neil Weinberg: He put up 86 WAR over the next ten years after our hypothetical. So a conservative estimate of his value if that happened starting today would be $500 million.

Neil Weinberg: As always, WHAT.

Comment From Guest
Jon Lester Over/Under $147M that Greinke and Hamels got. Hamels was extended, inflation is happening, and the pitching market is a joke this off season. I mean he isn’t as good as them either.

Neil Weinberg: I think that’s actually about what he gets.

Comment From Dom
Is there a chance Chapman becomes a starter?

Neil Weinberg: Very small.

Comment From mtsw
As someone who semi-regularly watches NPB, the infielders are generally awful. I don’t know why that would be the case, but it’s shocking how bad the infields are given how prevalent contact-type hitting and small ball tactics are in NPB.

Comment From DavidJ
Yes, for example: Ortiz 39.04 RE24, Cano 38.00. Cano 4.35 REW, Ortiz 4.19. Look at the leaderboards and you’ll find lots of other little examples like that.

Neil Weinberg: I will check into this.

Comment From Hank
Do you see any value in using park factors by handedness for park adjusted stats(either on the pitching or hitting side), or would that do more harm than good?

Neil Weinberg: Problem is that you’re then making an assumption that just divides the players into two bins. Slightly more information, but then you would want to know the opposing pitchers and spray tendencies and it gets really complicated quickly. There’s room to improve,but is the end goal a park factor for every pitch?

Comment From Brad
How do you think your tandem starter idea for the Tigers would have worked in the playoffs this year?

Neil Weinberg: I think it would have helped, but I don’t know if it would have helped them win three games. There was no way to predict a 33 ERA bullpen.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
Is Masterson the next Pittsburgh reclamation project? I think he would be a great fit there

Neil Weinberg: Makes some sense. Lot of teams would be wise to gamble on him

Comment From Dom
Why do park factors vary so much year to year?

Neil Weinberg: They don’t vary that much, but it’s only 81 games. That’s not actually a huge sample.

Comment From Hambone
By the way, that would be genius of an already genius Cistulli if all the NotGraph writers were in fact pseudonyms of Cistulli

Neil Weinberg: I actually have no evidence that could disprove your hypothesis.

Comment From Guest
So then, what’s going into PF that isn’t in xFIP? Just BABIP, since xFIP is already correcting for a depressed HR environment?

Neil Weinberg: xFIP regresses HR rate to league average, not to park average. HR aren’t the only reason parks play differently. It’s hard to hit bombs in Minnesota, but there are a decent number of runs scored there because doubles and triples are way ore common

Comment From mtsw
As someone who doesn’t watch a lot of NL baseball, why is SF’s park so pitcher friendly? Just the wind off the water or is there another issue?

Neil Weinberg: Large dimensions, but it’s pretty cold there relative to the rest of the league in the summer, plus the wind/water. Also the high wall in RF.

Neil Weinberg: Quick break. Back in a minute and will go to about 430p. First time I’m going to get nowhere near all of the questions, but dump a few more in and we’ll see what happens

Comment From Guest
re: indoor park in Denver. I love this idea, but Coors is one of the more beautiful parks in the country, I don’t know if I as a fan could bear to see them go to a dome. Though I’ve often thought that a pressurized dome might be the answer to the Rockies problems

Neil Weinberg: Right. Trade off between the view and the impact on the team.

Comment From zurzles
Why do we assume the Rockies’ hitters are at a disadvantage on the road rather than an advantage at home? with the extreme PF isn’t it possible they’ve adjusted to playing at Coors way more than their opponents and have figured out ways to exploit it (like how the Sox LFs have adjusted to the Green Monster)?

Neil Weinberg: Purple Row did a piece about Coors earlier in the year. http://www.purplerow.com/20…

Comment From Brandon
Why can’t we calculate park factors just using the physical characteristics of each park? Dimensions are static, average humidity/temperature are all very easy to calculate. Why do we need to depend on the players’ stats at all?

Neil Weinberg: We need to know how the park influences outcomes. Need the outcomes to do that. I think there are potentially some other ways to go about it, but you can’t just say here are thirty parks with these dimensions and air temp and assume you can figure out how they will play. Need to calibrate

Comment From monk
What’s your preferred method of allocating ottoneu arbitration dollars: spread the love between several players? max out a single target player’s salary and hope the owner drops him?

Neil Weinberg: I generally look for players who are on the keep/don’t keep bubble and go all in

Comment From Peacebone
Is it pronounced CIS-tul-li or cis-TUL-li

Neil Weinberg: The second one, although now that I’m saying it out loud I can’t tell the difference

Comment From zurzles
Actually jumping off BONKERS, I really would like to see some new mega-formulas to compete with WAR. Not to replace it, just to delve into some different methodologies.

Neil Weinberg: If StatCast really dumps the data the way they say they will, we could really have some fun because everyone would be on the same playing field with data access. Would love to host a “best WAR” contest

Comment From Brandon
Using player stats to determine park factor seems like needlessly introducing a confounding variable to me

Neil Weinberg: You have to know how the dimensions/weather influence the numbers. Can’t do that without the numbers.

Comment From Guest
Is James Shield literally a line drive machine? I don’t have time to read the article.

Neil Weinberg: Yes. You put quarters in and then there are line drives

Comment From Guest
True or false … the Tigers would be better of with Billy Butler and Denard Span over VMart and Rajai Davis

Neil Weinberg: Hmmmm. That would be close. Would probably go with VMart/Davis, but it’s not a crazy question at all

Comment From zurzles
LOL. I had the same response to that article and thought it might be a bit biased! Still not sure why the opposite isn’t potentially just as valid. Opposing players are at a disadvantage trying to adjust to Coors’ quirks, especially pitchers.

Neil Weinberg: Other teams only have to play in Coors a few times, so they only have to adjust one or two times per year. Rockies have to do it a ton

Comment From Pale Hose
Can you explain why early poor performance from a pitcher does not predict late poor performance? I would guess that poor performance early in the game leads to incurring the times through order penalty sooner than expected. In turn, later performance will also be worse because of the higher penalty. Why is that logic wrong?

Neil Weinberg: Are you talking about MGL’s piece? He adjusted for TTOP in the projections.

Comment From Guest
If you had to guess, where does Lester end up?

Neil Weinberg: Baltimore.

Comment From Brian
Thanks for chatting, Neil! I know this might not be your wheelhouse, but what are the rules regarding non-rostered guys like Christian Colon and what they can and can’t do around the dugout to help their team when they can’t actually play?

Neil Weinberg: I think the rule is that they can not be on the field during the game.

Comment From Brad
Giants in 5 sound realistic?

Neil Weinberg: Sure. Anything but Royals in 4 is realistic. Not a jerk response, but there is no outcome of any single series that would surprise me.

Comment From mtsw
Given how much of pitching velocity is genetics/innate talent, do you feel that certain regions of the US are underscouted? Wouldn’t you expect distribution of origins for arms to be more evenly distributed than for position players (more of a learned skill even at lower levels)? It seems like both pitchers and batters share the same Southern US/California biases in distribution.

Neil Weinberg: They don’t play as much ball in the cold weather states, so even if you scout them, you don’t know as much. Teams are risk averse like that, but velo/etc also requires training and in Minnesota the athletes focus on hockey and never really find out they have pitching talent.

Comment From mtsw
Would having a couple parks with unusual dimensions like the Polo Grounds or Baker Bowl in the majors today make things more or less interesting? Seems like the league is cooler because Coors exists. Or would today’s savvier teams be too good at building a team around unusual home factors?

Neil Weinberg: More! I love parks that play weird.

Neil Weinberg: I think the Coors problem of elevation is an issue because it affects the pitches, not just the flight of the ball, though

Comment From Lisa
When will Wendy get her own chat? These things always feel like boys’ clubs, so I like/am inspired by what she does and it would be fun to have her do a chat.

Neil Weinberg: Wendy has done a few chats and did a live blog this postseason. Don’t know if she has interest in permanent chats or not, but I endorse your positive reviews of her work!

Comment From The Guest
The funniest part of that 10-year deal for Bonds is that it still wouldn’t include all of his 10+ WAR seasons in the remainder of his career

Neil Weinberg: In theory that $400 million would be a bargain.

Comment From Guest
Your last name means “wine mountain.” Is that the opposite of a wine cellar, or one of those displays at the entrance to a wine and spirits store?

Neil Weinberg: I have always assumed it was like a vineyard.

Comment From Gorgorc
Who is your favorite player who is better in fantasy than he is in reality?

Neil Weinberg: VMart

Comment From mtsw
You are made commissioner of baseball and as a one-time event are given the power to force one owner/ownership group to sell their team. Who do you choose and why?

Neil Weinberg: Marlins. Seems like they’ve poisoned the well there

Comment From Hambone
I asked Jeff this the other day, but didn’t get a clear response: When I look at the Giants defense including pitchers, their Def is like +35 or something. When I click NP it becomes like -4. Is pitcher defense that heavy or inaccurate?

Neil Weinberg: Pitchers have a huge positional adjustment

Comment From mtsw
Would baseball be more popular if someone discovered a more entertaining way to gamble on it? If so, any ideas?

Neil Weinberg: A friend and I used to gamble on the outcome of each at bat. Like 50 cents at a time, so winner would wind up with like $5 at the end. But I don’t think it would really help much.

Comment From Brad
If bumgarner’s era takes a hit b/c of park adjustments (sf pitcher’s park), does it get offset by the fact he pitched worse at home?

Neil Weinberg: No. At least not from a calculation standpoint

Comment From mtsw
Which formerly common (decades ago) prediction about the future of baseball looks dumber today: 1) everyone will play on turf/domes in the future or 2) everyone will use aluminum bats in the future?

Neil Weinberg: Turf.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
What’s your favorite all time movie? By the way, Your chat is tied for my favorite with Eno. I like his beer answers, but I like that you seem to answer all of my questions and i enjoy your responses. #mancrush

Neil Weinberg: Thanks, I don’t usually look at the names until I post it. So that’s just a coincidence. A lot of the time I answer 85+% of the questions, but this week is flooded. Shawshank? Up?

Comment From Mark Twain
It’s “pretty” cold in SF in the summer? hahahaha

Neil Weinberg: I am not sure why this is funny.

Comment From DavidJ
RE: Park factors: and it’s not just weather and dimensions, either. Things like the quality of the hitter’s backdrop can make a difference. Don’t know how you’d account for something like that except in seeing how it actually shows up in the outcomes.

Neil Weinberg: Yup. Good point.

Comment From mtsw
Please expand on the Lester to Baltimore thing. Don’t the Orioles already have a crowded rotation with 5 decent guys + Ubaldo + Bundy?

Neil Weinberg: O’s need to add pitching and have the resources to afford him if they want. Was a guess. Don’t feel strongly

Comment From Yes On Betts
Where are all the Mookie Betts trade offers this week? I’ll start things off: Angels trade Trout + Pujols & Hamilton for Betts, straight up.

Neil Weinberg: FG Mookie talk has been quiet for a while! That’s one of those deals that theoretically makes sense from a value standpoint (given all the negative value that Pujols and Hamilton have and Trout no longer makes the minimum) but makes no sense because the Angels want wins, not efficiency right now. So it’d be 13 WAR for 3-4 WAR, even if the finances balance. Can’t take that money and buy a new Trout

Comment From 14
Pablo or Alcides Escobar?

Neil Weinberg: The context of this question is very important!

Comment From Guest
People in my town recently lined up to purchase tickets for Foo Fighters, in the middle of the afternoon on a work day. Is it 1999 again?

Neil Weinberg: Heh.

Comment From Thanks
Your chat is more fun than studying for the CPA examination.

Neil Weinberg: Presumably not a high bar, but appreciate it.

Comment From Chris
Would baseball be improved if the players on the team that finished with the worst record in all the majors were sacrificed so that the crops would yield a good harvest for next year?

Neil Weinberg: I would actually like to see some sort of penalty for the worst team. Not human sacrifice, but something!

Comment From JJB
Please confirm my fears as a Phillies fan: no team will trade for an ace (and pay the contract) and give up prospects, when they can just sign one in free agency. It’s gonna be a long decade is it not…?

Neil Weinberg: Won’t get both things, but Phils eat some cash and there will be prospects for Hamels or a healthy Lee

Comment From Roger Samuels
“The coldest winter I ever saw was the summer I spent in San Francisco.” -Mark Twain

Neil Weinberg: Ah…so this is why reading the name would help.

Comment From mtsw
Would it be easier or more difficult to hit if you doubled the distance to the mound but guys could throw twice as hard?

Neil Weinberg: Harder. Reaction time would be the same but presumably picking up the ball would be harder. But that is a question for an actual physicist and not me.

Comment From mtsw
Are fake Mookie Betts trades enough of a meme in FG chats that people will continue submitting him even after he actually gets traded?

Neil Weinberg: I hope so!

Comment From Guest
I think you mean “physician”

Neil Weinberg: No I mean physicist!

Neil Weinberg: Alright, this was fun. Sorry for the questions I didn’t have time for. Dave and Jeff will be here during the game and I’ll be back Saturday to do the same, I believe.