Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 11/19/14

Neil Weinberg: Hi all, we’ll get started at 3pm but the queue is open. Remember that this chat prioritizes stat/data/FG/how does that work type questions, but everything is fair game.

If you’re looking for me, @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter during non-chat hours.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s discuss baseball! Keep the questions flowing.

Comment From Raymond
How exactly is WAR calculated?

Neil Weinberg: For position players: http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Complete position player example: http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Neil Weinberg: The pitcher one is a little more complicated and is out of date on the site. I’ll be updating that, hopefully very soon.

Comment From Matt (St. Louis)
When evaluating projected stats, is there a hierarchy you think works best to sort through players? Meaning, is it helpful to look at wRC+ first and then combine that with the best wOBA second, and so on.

Neil Weinberg: I generally place a lot more stock in rate statistics, so I use wOBA and wRC+ depending on my exact aims. wRC+ is just a park and league adjusted wOBA. Then I start to get into the specific breakdown of their offense, etc

Comment From SmoothCootah
I hope you applied to be the Royal’s systems architect.

Neil Weinberg: I am not qualified for that. Nowhere near the necessary programming skills.

Comment From semperty
I’ve asked Jeff and Dave about this, but neither really got back to me. Is there a place to view long term projections for players? Or are we stuck with the 1-year model on the site and then left to guess about the rest?

Comment From semperty
Never mind. Jeff got back to me. I’ll go ahead and assume you would respond anyway, and say thanks!!

Neil Weinberg: Credit for no work!

Neil Weinberg: The answer is that we only have one year Steamer numbers and we just kind of use rules of thumb to age them.

Comment From Brad
What are your thoughts on Arizona’s new hire to run analytics dept?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know enough about him to give a strong opinion, but a person’s prior job is not always an accurate barometer of their fit for a new job. Also, we don’t know what the structure of the office is going to be. You don’t need a statistician to run the dept, just someone who speaks statistics.

Comment From Yosted
If I wanted to look at the components of WAR, is it possible to create a custom leader board that would easily show that?

Neil Weinberg: Click the value tab on the leaderboard!

Comment From Guest
are saves a factor of war scores.

Neil Weinberg: No, although leverage is included for relievers, so pitching in save situations will be correlated with higher WAR because saves are usually higher leverage than the average app

Comment From Jimbo
( http://www.fangraphs.com/st… ) Under the fielding category, if you click minor leagues it doesn’t show any minor league data.

Neil Weinberg: We don’t have minor league fielding data

Comment From David
How many AB do you see Mookie Betts getting next year? Does Xander bounce back?

Neil Weinberg: Mookie gets 450 PA? I’m a believer in Xander, so yes.

Comment From Pale Hose
Hi Neil. Do you think front offices with a track record of success deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Neil Weinberg: Generally, no. Although, I will say that teams with a history of certain specific strength should get some benefit. Like if the White Sox sign a starter who’s in decline, Don Cooper is probably aware of a way to fix him. Or if the Rays acquire a catcher, I tend to think they know something about his defense. But generally, I don’t say Beane/Friedman/Theo/Dombrowski’s moves are good and Amaro/etc’s are bad.

Neil Weinberg: But you can ask Tigers fans, I was very hard on DD last offseason.

Neil Weinberg: But you should always acknowledge as a fan that there is information they have that you don’t.

Comment From DominionXxX
Will the Tigers OF of Davis, Gose, and a regressed JD Martinez be the worst offensive OF of the current era?

Neil Weinberg: Probably not. Let’s see if we can check this real fast. Current era is 2006-present?

Neil Weinberg: Actually, looks like the 2006 D-backs had a 95 wRC+ for their OF. If JD crashes, that’s possible. Although I don’t think he will fall that far and expect an acquisition.

Comment From hscer
How has WAR gotten far more credible than other catch-all metrics like Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value or Basketball Reference Win Shares?

Neil Weinberg: Baseball stat-geeks are just ahead of the game? Also, baseball has always been a more stat-driven spot. I assume that in 10 years there will be popular metrics like WAR for every spot

Comment From martin
I noticed that steamer’s war for 2015 has betances war lower than wades….I need to draft one soon, which do you like better for 2015

Neil Weinberg: Davis. Better park, better defense. Good for fantasy.

Comment From SmoothCootah
David Ortiz 2009 state line on here says he was 0.0 WAR. just a hunch but that’s a glitch?

Neil Weinberg: The calculation is right. Is the correct batting line? If so, that’s a 0.0 WAR player.

Comment From don
Who adds more value a position player (3b/2b/Lf) or starting pitcher over the course of a season? Of the same caliber and at the same salary who adds more wins?

Neil Weinberg: Guess it depends how you define “the same” but the position player is probably higher in the definition I’m assuming you’re asking about because they can influence offense and defense while the pitcher only plays a partial role in run prevention. I’m not positive, but I think pitchers get paid a little more per win than position players, but I’m trying to remember a post from about two years back. Someone can check.

Comment From SmoothCootah
someone told me yesterday that SQL is pronounced “sequel” instead of like the individual letters. I dont want to sound like an idiot…help!

Neil Weinberg: I didn’t know it was sequel until last year. Don’t worry. Problem with the internet is that no one knows if they are pronouncing things properly.

Comment From Gila Monster
After looking how the Stanton contract is structured, is it even better for the Marlins? The first 6 years are incredibly cheaper and are probably when Stanton generates the most value. If he opts out you get a 6 WAR player for 6 years/$107M. Dave wrote how the opt out it good for Stanton, but it seem better for the Marlins because the pure value he generates before the opt out due to the contract being backloaded.

Neil Weinberg: Sort of. The opt out is good for Stanton and only Stanton, but the fact that the money is stacked behind the opt out returns some of that advantage back to the Marlins.

13/325 with an opt out is a fine deal
13/325 with an opt out that is backloaded is better

Comment From Flushing Flash
how about glossary for the abbreviations on the team defense pages!?

Neil Weinberg: If you are on a player page, these exist. Noted about wanting them on leaderboards.

Comment From Flushing Flash
DP, DPT, DPS, DPF…?

Neil Weinberg: Double play opps, double plays turned, double plays started, double plays finished

Comment From SmoothCootah
Dont closer inherently have higher WARs than other relievers since they generally are used in higher leverage situations? do you understand what im asking?

Neil Weinberg: If they pitch well! Any reliever who gets high leverage opps gets a potential to boost their WAR

Comment From SmoothCootah
in the year 20__ we will get advanced and accurate minor league stats including pitch f/x and stat cast

Neil Weinberg: 22?

Comment From SmoothCootah
wouldnt teams want to install pitch fx in their minor league parks so they have a better idea of the talent of both their own team and competition?

Neil Weinberg: Yes.

Comment From Matt (St. Louis)
Another on Mookie. He played well down the stretch and hit at the top of the order. 450 PA seems pretty low for that type of hitter.

Neil Weinberg: There are a lot of players on that team, he’s probably going to share some time, maybe miss a little time with injury. I think he’ll be something close to a full time player, but not quite.

Comment From Kevin
Given that my PA (0) was in fact the required Min PA to be listed on Fangraphs. Why am I not listed on every team’s statistics? Same could be said for my Min Innings Pitched.

Neil Weinberg: You have to appear in a game.

Comment From Bill
I know WAR is just a framework, but why hasn’t the use of RE24 in WAR caught on more when discussing a player true value over a given season?

Neil Weinberg: People do this. Dave wrote a post about it and kind of used this exact thing to generate his MVP ballot.

Comment From Pale Hose
Follow up regarding benefit of the doubt: Do you think Don Cooper (and others like him) have transferable knowledge, or is their ability more of an instinctual skill? For the original question I had the Cardinals player development in mind. I usually give their prospects a bump up in my mind because they seem really good at development, and it makes me leery of them giving up Shelby Miller.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know the answer, but I bet there are a couple of things at play.

Neil Weinberg: 1) I have a suspicion that the White Sox know something about pitcher health that we don’t

Neil Weinberg: 2) I think Cooper is probably extremely good at explaining things to pitchers

Neil Weinberg: I find it hard to believe he has an innate gift for just knowing how to fix a guy, but I suspect he is very good at communicating with his pitchers, providing feedback, and working with them to solve problems

Neil Weinberg: I imagine this could be taught, but baseball is competitive, so the White Sox have no incentive to allow this outside the org. But I’m guessing

Comment From Nick
Is there a way to look at player splits for multiple years at a time? Like if I wanted to see how a player hit against RHP over the past 4 years?

Neil Weinberg: Leaderboard, set the year range, then set the split you want

Comment From Ceej
I love Buxton/Sano, but isn’t Steamer a little aggressive for the projections? What causes that?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think the numbers look that aggressive, but Steamer also doesn’t know the specific injuries, they only know about the missing playing time.

Comment From Guest
Did you see Jeff’s article on Cole Hamels? He had a 50 M spread on Hamels’ surplus value based on different (reasonable) assumptions. Could we extend this concept to say all free agent contracts are probably reasonable?

Neil Weinberg: There’s a difference between “there are reasonable assumptions which make this a fair value” and “those assumptions are the expected outcome.”

Neil Weinberg: And he was working with a 5 year range. Range shrinks as you deal with shorter contracts as well.

Neil Weinberg: I do generally think we get a little to worked up about deals that are a little bad. The Ryan Howard extension was foolish, but the Billy Butler deal is probably just a little heavy. Second one isn’t worth getting upset about

Comment From Pale Hose
Does Blengino maintain his own stats or are they sourced from somewhere? I love his articles because they show a lot of nuance that is usually overlooked.

Neil Weinberg: I’m not exactly sure if they are “his” or if he has access to stuff from his FO days. I know he calculates a lot of stuff that no one else does.

Comment From Henry
How often do you use MLEs and what is your opinion of them?

Neil Weinberg: I typically don’t use them. I either lean on projections or just sort of eye-ball it. Not very scientific, but I’m less interested in prospects than a lot of baseball nuts.

Comment From Matt
Could the Yankees hypothetically send A-Rod and $50M to the Astros to lower their luxury tax burden and essentially give the Astros a free player for helping them out?

Neil Weinberg: Um….yes? This seems illegal but probably isn’t.

Neil Weinberg: There might be a thing about payments to other clubs counting toward your tax…

Comment From SF Dave
I need some reading on how getting 2 extra strikes a game can = ~1/6 of a run re: Catcher framing. I know that the slash lines are more favorable the further ahead the batter gets but it can’t be that dramatic. The difference between .250 and .300 is still only 5%

Neil Weinberg: 1/6th of a run is not very much.

Comment From Kevin
If you have to appear in a game, without batting, then a RP who never took an AB, would be listed with 0’s. Batters who have never pitched, would be listed with 0’s,

Neil Weinberg: You have to appear as a position player or appear as a pitcher.

Comment From Hank
Why do the Fangrpahs value pages use a ~5.3mil/WAR valuation for 2014 and almost every writer say 6mil? Are these supposed to represent two different things?

Neil Weinberg: That’s just an old calculation. It’s not 5.3, but it was 5.3 when that feature was added.

Comment From Kimbo Slice
How does Fangraph’s stat/data/FG/how does it work make sense of the 2015 Braves. Are these rebuilding moves towards 2017 or reloading moves to go for it in 2015.

Neil Weinberg: I think they are trying to do a quick rebuild. One bad year and then right back into action

Comment From Matt
I know the argument for not including catcher framing in WAR is “We don’t know how much of it is the pitcher or the catcher”. This is fine. But why do we currently give the pitcher all of the credit? I mean we shouldn’t probably give the catcher at least 25% of the credit.

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, this is more about not putting a number on it until we feel like we have a good idea. Clearly, the catcher plays a role. Clearly they deserve some credit.

Comment From Fronk
Why did Russell Martin project for a 108 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR before joining the Jays, but now the projection has him at a 111 wRC+ and 4.3 WAR?

Neil Weinberg: Can’t say for sure because I don’t have insider access into Steamer, but it’s probably about the park. Steamer might use a more complicated park factor or something like that

Comment From Hank
A followup on the $/WAR… it seems like EVERY yer in the past 4 or 5 years uses a $/WAR figure far lower then what writers claim it is. Doe that basically mean the valuation figures are kind of useless/1 year behind?

Neil Weinberg: The column on the stat pages is based on like $5.5/WAR. That was true when it was implemented and hasn’t been updated. Don’t use those numbers for current years.

Comment From aaa
I don’t know if you’re the dude to talk to about this, but Butler’s defensive rating in Steamer is glitched, unless he’s actually a -30.2 defender.

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, that’s a mistake. I believe someone is handling that.

Comment From Matt (St. Louis)
How often are Steamer projection updates loaded into the Fangraphs system?

Neil Weinberg: Daily? It is daily during the season. Might be only when a transaction occurs during the offseason

Comment From Dylan
Any chance the A’s signed Butler simply to buy low, fix some sort of problem, and flip him for a profit?

Neil Weinberg: They didn’t really “buy low,” but I imagine they believe like they can make sure he bounces back.

Comment From Guest
The Red Sox claim Juan Fransisco AKA Middlebrooks on the right side of a platoon. A sub .300 OBP 40 home run hitting platoon.

Neil Weinberg: That would be fun to watch

Comment From Guest
Does $/WAR have the probability of injury baked in?

Neil Weinberg: Yes.

Comment From Tom
If we start crediting catchers for framing, don’t you have to start subtracting some value from pitchers? How would that work (distribute evenly among pitchers based on IP/batters faced?)?

Neil Weinberg: Yes and that’s where it gets complicated.

Russell Martin grabs a strike for Daniel Norris in the 7th inning on Opening Day. Do they split the run? 75/25? Does it always split the same way?

Comment From Pale Hose
Can we assume that framing does not age?

Neil Weinberg: Ages very slowly, from what I’ve seen

Comment From Sam
Buster Olney ranked Jonathan Lucroy as the third-best catcher in MLB behind Posey and Molina. Olney’s crazy, right? He should be higher.

Neil Weinberg: Haven’t seen it. Tough call. I wouldn’t say crazy, though.

Comment From Flushing Flash
what does DP started and DP finished refer to? I see a bunch of teams having the same number for both.

Neil Weinberg: The first guy to touch the ball and the last guy

Comment From Dennis
Why do players continue to switch hit when they are clearly better on one side of the plate aka Neil Walker

Neil Weinberg: They presumably believe they would be worse against same handed pitching

Comment From Hoosier O
Why is “framing” so important when pitch is “supposed” to be called “As it crosses the plate” before anything can influence it?

Neil Weinberg: because that’s not how strikes are actually called

Comment From SF Dave
I know 1/6th of a run isn’t that much but it still seems very high when the only difference is one ball or one strike twice a game.

Neil Weinberg: Run values from pitch to pitch are usually around 0.04 runs to about 0.1 runs.

Comment From Tom
If Dayton Moore signs Billy Butler to a 3/30 contract are people asking if it was a buy low deal and is it viewed/analyzed the same way?

Neil Weinberg: I think when Oakland (respected FO) do something we don’t think makes sense, a lot of people try to find out if there’s something we missed. When KC (less respected FO) do the same, there are fewer people who feel like they need to do so. That’s still about questions though, not actual opinions.

Comment From Flushing Flash
” The first guy to touch the ball and the last guy” sorry, you’ll need to explain this.

Neil Weinberg: A 6-4-3 double play is a double play started for the SS, turned for the 2B, and finshed for the 1B

Comment From Hoosier O
In regards to framing, if umpires obeyed rules, maybe less instant replay needed.

Neil Weinberg: Human beings are pretty much not capable of calling balls and strikes with perfect accuracy. Our eyes/brain can’t process the data quickly enough

Comment From Flushing Flash
also what is a DP opportunity defined as?

Neil Weinberg: Believe it’s fewer than 2 outs, runner on 1, 1 and 2, 1 and 3, 1,2, and 3. Ground ball hit.

Comment From SF Dave
Is there a place I can find the run value from pitch to pitch. It would help me explain this framing thing to my older friends who just don’t have much in the way of flexability

Neil Weinberg: This might help. It’s a bit out of date, but should give you a baseline http://www.hardballtimes.co…

I’m working on getting an updated one for the library

Comment From David
The most expensive pitch in history will occur when Kershaw throws his first pitch to Stanton..cost = rouhly 17,000.

Neil Weinberg: This is fun

Comment From Jimbo
Friedman won’t leave the LAD outfield the mess it is, will he?

Neil Weinberg: Almost no chance.

Comment From Tom
When UZR assigns DPR to a player how does it isolate the quality of the rest of the DP combination (Or does it not adjust)? Does a 2nd baseman’s DPR get adjusted based on quality of the SS?

Neil Weinberg: I am pretty sure that it just judges your leg of the double play independently.

Comment From Guest
Call you learn anything useful about front office inner workings from off season transactions? For example, your defensive metrics for Jason Heyward must be pretty close to what the Cardinals have if they valued 1 year of him at Shelby Miller. Or agreed with Dave that Miller is broken.

Neil Weinberg: Sure. But you have to build in the odds that the FO is making a mistake.

Comment From Flushing Flash
“A 6-4-3 double play is a double play started for the SS, turned for the 2B, and finshed for the 1B” Again, lost.

Neil Weinberg: What is confusing?

Comment From SmoothCootah
person who calculated the kershaw to stanton pitch $. can you explain your rationale?

Comment From SmoothCootah
i asked this last week but want to see if anything has changed. i bet my buddy quite a hefty sum of money that the cubs would win 79 or more games. am i crazy?

Neil Weinberg: I think it’s a good bet. Think they’re going for it.

Comment From hscer
What’s the severest case of statistical illiteracy you’ve encountered? I once saw a guy cite range factor and fielding percentage, then dismiss total putouts and assists without the least bit of irony.

Neil Weinberg: People do not understand probability. Anything with probability.

Comment From zurzles
what is giancarlo stanton supposed to do with all that money?

Neil Weinberg: Buy a big house, invest it wisely, maybe buy a lot of nice suits. Donate a lot.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, fire off some final questions. Going to step away for a minute and be right back

Comment From Guest
which players have the largest gap between perceived talent among fans and actual talent? recently it seems like the answer is Nick Markakis.

Neil Weinberg: Prince? The answer will be someone who was really good about four-five years ago.

Comment From Guest
Re: statistical illiteracy – Going further, few people get the idea of a probability distribution, and assume that projections are the same as predictions (a probability of 1 at the predicted value and zero everywhere else). It bugs me, because smart guys like Dan Szymborksi get unwarranted flak from those types of people.

Neil Weinberg: People take a mean/median and assume it’s a hard prediction all the time.

Neil Weinberg: It’s bad.

Neil Weinberg: We need to teach statistics in high school.

Comment From Big C
Alex Cobb for Starlin Castro?

Neil Weinberg: I wouldn’t do it as the Rays. But I’m lower on Castro than the average person

Comment From Matt
Is Scott Boras a future hall of famer?

Neil Weinberg: Are there agents in the Hall? Fascinating question

Comment From zurzles
it’s one of the things that gives me pause when Cameron writes about, say, trout signing a bad extension. i can’t even comprehend what i’d do with more than $100m. i’d rather just have the security then and there. charity is the only factor i’d really consider when arguing millions and millions of dollars.

Neil Weinberg: I’ve heard it’s a status thing. They’re stupid wealthy, so it’s just about pride. I don’t know. I would love $1 million. Life is weird.

Comment From zurzles
as an orioles fan, nick markakis has plenty of value as a pretty average player who will probably decline pretty steadily. people seem to put too much stock in 2013, when he was playing through injury.

Neil Weinberg: He’s a perfectly fine player. But I think the average baseball fan thinks he’s the awesome player he was five years ago

Comment From Guy who talked about distribution
I’d love to see Fangraphs publish some 25% and 75% projections, if possible – get a look at upside/downside as well as the mean.

Neil Weinberg: Steamer does this on their site.

Comment From SmoothCootah
piggybacking the severe case of statistical illiteracy: any examples from a national broadcast youd care to share of poor commentary? i know theres a ton!

Neil Weinberg: None come to mind, but they are plentiful.

Comment From Dylan
Well Marvin Miller isn’t in the HoF somehow…. and he made the MLBPA the most powerful union in the world.

Neil Weinberg: So here’s the thing. Writers vote for the HOF. Writers love Boras…I think….

Comment From mtsw
Matt Wieters for Starlin Castro: crazy or crazy enough to work? Orioles could throw in Brian Matusz so the Cubs have another failed Baltimore pitching prospect to fix too.

Neil Weinberg: Wieters isn’t worth Castro. Contract is almost up. Also…where would Castro play? 2B?

Comment From SmoothCootah
craziest trade proposal thatr actually might happen… go!

Neil Weinberg: Fister for Ray, Krol, and Lombardozzi. /cries

Comment From Guest
People often complain about players salaries in baseball vs. other sports. But shouldn’t they be complaining about salaries being artificially suppressed in other sports using the salary cap under the guise of making the league more competitive? I mean Lebron or Manning would be making Giancarlo money without restrictions, right?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah. This is a silly complaint. If you spend a bunch of money watching games, the league makes money. Baseball just has a strong union so the money goes to the players instead of the owners (relatively speaking).

Neil Weinberg: I never get why people are bothered by player’s salaries but not ownership profits. And I’m not a bleeding hard or anything like that

Comment From Peter
How worried should interested teams be about Tulo’s home/road splits? Is he just an average, injury prone SS if he moves out of Coors?

Neil Weinberg: Injuries, sure. But he will likely still mash outside of COL. Rockies have artificially low road splits because of the whole curveball spinning thing

Comment From Guest
are there any truly “small market” teams where the owners are all billionaires?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know for sure, but hundred millionaires for sure

Comment From Yosted
The value tab shows the calculations for RAR, is there an easily pulled number that shows what the RAR to WAR factor is?

Neil Weinberg: RAR divided by runs per win (available in the guts page, about 9.1 this year) = WAR

Comment From zurzles
ha, i’m not supporting the owners, i’m aware that that’s a more difficult issue to tackle. but at the very least that money could very easily be spread out so minor leaguers and the thousands of team employees could make a living wage

Neil Weinberg: Sure. Baseball should do something about that

Neil Weinberg: Battery is dying. Going to have to wrap this up. I’ll be back next week and will be on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 if you’re looking for me until then.