Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 11/26/14

Neil Weinberg: Hey all. Queue is open and we’ll begin at 3pm. Remember priority to stat/data/FG info questions, but anything is fair game. I’m @NeilWeinberg44 if you’re looking for me on Twitter. See you in a few.

Neil Weinberg: Alright. Let’s get started. A little light on questions so far, so today’s the day to get stuff answered.

Comment From 804NatsFan
What is that picture I see? Sandlot football for dads… w/ uniforms! (Sans helmets?)

Comment From zurzles
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO MY CHAT WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN AM I SAFE

Neil Weinberg: People have strong opinions!

Neil Weinberg: As always, if you know of a better service than CIL, we are all ears.

Comment From Justin Perline
Hey Neil,
If the news of a Xander Bogaerts to the Mets for Noah Syndergaard trade broke, what would be your reaction?

Neil Weinberg: Mets come away better, but I think this is the framework of a fair deal. Bogaerts is the better player with lower injury risk because of his position, but it’s 5 years instead of 6. So Noah + something decent and we’re in range. Although there are probably better ways to get pitching if you’re Boston

Comment From The Pittsburgh Pirate Bay
Hey, you know anywhere I could get my hands on THT 2015 at an, erm, discount?

Neil Weinberg: You can win a free copy on the home page right now!

Comment From Ceej
What’s most likely for Profar in ’15, injured for the majority, trade, or legit production?

Neil Weinberg: I think legit production. Wrong time to get max value on a trade, and I’m an optimist on the health side.

Comment From Curious
Will Eno do a thanksgiving chat?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think so. Pretty sure we aren’t publishing anything Thurs or Friday.

Comment From Curious
No Kiley chat? What will I do with myself, I enjoy those every week.

Neil Weinberg: Sorry 🙁 You can ask me questions about prospects, although my answers won’t be as good!

Comment From Jay
The O’s may lose 2 corner outfielders (though Pearce could fill one). What would be a smart path from the to follow given that they are a legit contender (sort of ) but probably don’t have loads of money.

Neil Weinberg: There are a number of average-ish type OF around this winter. Someone like Alex Rios. Trade for Michael Saunders? Those types of moves would fit, although I think they should go for one of the aces.

Comment From Ceej
Twins claim that Buxton/Sano won’t debut in ’15 because they have no need to rush. Will their production force it, or will it be another Kris Bryant instance?

Neil Weinberg: I think we’ll probably see Buxton in September. Sano’s coming off a more serious injury, but I think he’s up in September too if he’s healthy and producing. Won’t be sooner though.

Comment From Jay
Assuming that the Sox basically have to make a trade and that only one gets traded so the %’s add toa 100 — percentage chance for each that they are traded prior to opening day: M. Betts? Y. Cespedes? X. Bogaerts? A. Craig? S. Victorino?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not fully sure I get the mechanics of the question, but something like 5, 45, 10, 20, 20

Comment From Jim
Some people think Pedro isn’t a slam dunk first ballot HOFer. Your thoughts? Others say he may not even be a HOFer period. Your thoughts?

Neil Weinberg: I want you to listen very carefully. If you encounter a person who believes Pedro isn’t a Hall of Famer, you need to run away very quickly. First ballot stuff is tricky, just because some people want that reserved for like, the best 10 players ever, or whatever.

But he is a slam dunk HOFer, no question. Case closed

Comment From Jay
N. Arenado has been solid but a mild disappointment thus far. Is this more or less what we get or is a breakout coming?

Neil Weinberg: In his age 22 and 23 seasons, he was worth 6 WAR in fewer than 1000 PA. That’s very good! And he will probably improve a little with the bat given his age, although the defense will slow down over time

Comment From Jim
‘First ballot stuff is tricky, just because some people want that reserved for like, the best 10 players ever, or whatever’

That kind of went out the window when Glavine made it first ballot, no? I mean, Schilling and Mussina don’t make it but Glavine does?

Neil Weinberg: Except the person you’re arguing with might not have supported Glavine, is all I’m saying. If a person wanted to say only the elite of the elite should go in the first time, and they are consistent about it, there’s not really a way to argue. The majority of people don’t follow that rule, though

Comment From Big Jim
I am opening the Hall of Players That Used to Be Alright but Then Went and Nuked Everything Because They’re Idiots; Schilling obvi first ballot — who else?

Neil Weinberg: I have no idea but I like the idea of a shrine to great players who ruined their reputations for other reasons.

Comment From Aaron
Will Longo bounce back in 2015?

Neil Weinberg: Yes.

Comment From A young person
Can you explain to me why the hell HOF voting works the way it does? If you’re HOF worthy, you’re HOF worthy — don’t see why exactly you need first ballot/not ballot; limit on number of votes; players gaining votes over time as though their performance has improved since they got on the ballot. None of this makes any sense, literally.

Neil Weinberg: It doesn’t make any sense. It’s just path dependency. They came up with this method and people in control hate change.

Comment From Rick
Adorable Starlin Castro v. Brad Miller discussion in Dave’s chat and now the comments. When will the offseason end

Neil Weinberg: Last two years: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

You can make a case for Castro of course, but you can’t crush Miller for his 2014 offense and not remember Castro in 2013.

Comment From Matt T.
Mookie Betts for Julio Teheran. Who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Red Sox.

Comment From Matt
Already help me make sense of this. I don’t get the whole moved to move HanRam in LF. Prior to the signing, I assumed you had an OF of Castillo,Betts, and Victorino. I figured Cespedes was gone. But now, we have another outfielder on the outside looking in. And I’m just not convinced HanRam in the outfield will be better than any of the option you already had. Mookie is one of the best young players in the game. Victoriano was worth 5.6 WAR in 2013 and I assume Catillo isn’t bad. It doesn’t make sense to me because the marginal return on HanRam seems to be so little. You probably aren’t moving Betts,can’t move Castillo, and probably can’t get anything for Victorino. It seems like the money would have been better spent on pitching where the marginal value would be greater than upgrading the OF until you have replaced at least 3 starters. Please help me understand.

Neil Weinberg: It’s not just a 2015 move. Victorino and Cespedes are gone after that. So Hanley, Castillo, and Betts are your OFers and shortly after Hanley might be your DH. If you make this deal, you can flip the excess OFers to other clubs for some pitching. The alternative might also work, but this isn’t crazy or anything

Comment From Jim
How many pitchers are legitimately better than Pedro was though? Are there even 10? Pedro’s got THE BEST ERA+ OF ANY STARTING PITCHER IN MLB history. 3 Cy Youngs, 5 ERA titles. His career WHIP is the LOWEST IN THE LIVE BALL ERA (Maddux was 6th). And for the fans of wins and loses, the 2nd best winning % in modern history.Pedro had a SEVEN YEAR STRETCH in which his season ERA+ eclipsed 200 FIVE times. One time it was 291 (the best for a starter since 1880). Randy Johnson’s best ERA+ ever was 195…he never eclipsed 200 even once.

Pedro averaged 10Ks per 9 IP. That is the 3rd highest strikeout rate in history and goes along with the 3rd highest strikeout to walk ratio.

Neil Weinberg: Pedro’s downside is that he didn’t crush it for those last four years. He’s obviously an all time great. Depends on your specific definitions

Comment From Ceej
Who is more likely to go to the OF, Profar or Odor?

Neil Weinberg: Odor.

Comment From Gila Monster
Shouldn’t the Phillies be looking into whether Utley will waive his no trade? There is a lot of demand for 2B from teams like NYY,WAS,TOR..etc and his contract is very nice in that options vest at 500PA until 2018. And he is always one of those players that if healthy, is a great player.

Neil Weinberg: Of course. But Utley might not want to waive it without some sort of compensation.

Neil Weinberg: I’m looking forward to being the the Jonah Keri to Chase Utley’s Tim Raines in a few years

Comment From cecilfieldersbuttplug
the article about committed money is crazy… the dodgers man, that payroll is obscene

Neil Weinberg: Greinke is going to opt out though

Neil Weinberg: Keep peppering the questions. Pretty low turnout so far!

Comment From Rick Hahn
How much would I have to give up to get souza from the nats?

Neil Weinberg: Nats are going to want a young middle infielder….which you also want…tough fit but a good target if you’re the sox

Comment From James Jennason
What are your thoughts on Thanksgiving carols?

Neil Weinberg: Is that a thing? First I’m hearing

Comment From cecilfieldersbuttplug
what are you doing for thanksgiving? im gonna get sauced after i run a 5k and eat my body weight in stuffing

Neil Weinberg: Cooking all day, eating, watching TV. Wife and I don’t go home for thanksgiving it’s pretty straightforward

Comment From Matt
Is that saying more about Betts that Teheran? I mean Teheran is just 23 somehow and is signed through 2019 at under $30M with an option for 2020. And
just for $1M in 2015.

Neil Weinberg: Betts is under control for just as long. And he’s probably the better player in 2015, and isn’t a pitcher, who get hurt more often. Teheran is very valuable though. Not a knock on him at all

Comment From Munchkin
Besides SS, where can the Mets improve?

Neil Weinberg: Bullpen, outfield, 1B

Neil Weinberg: The Mets are one of those teams that has a real player in most spots, but not enough talent overall. Cuddyer, Lagares, and Grandy are all MLB players, but you need a better OF overall to be a really good team. Duda is the same way.

Comment From cecilfieldersbuttplug
Does Napoli get traded this offseason?

Neil Weinberg: Going to bet he stays

Comment From Ed
Should Jays focus on re-signing Melky or go after Headley (assuming similar contracts)?

Neil Weinberg: Would rather have Headley for the same money

Comment From Dr Strangeglove
If the Dbacks are serious about Tomas, and somehow actually sign him, how do you think they’ll alleviate the ridiculously clogged logjam in the OF? Also, where might Ross end up and why is it on the moon?

Neil Weinberg: Trade Trumbo? They’re probably not contenders this year so they can let the situation work itself out. There will be a market for solid OF options later in the winter or at the deadline

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
BMac or Liriano on a matching 3 year deal?

Neil Weinberg: McCarthy? Tough one. Liriano’s got a chance to be great at times, but feels like a much lower floor as well

Comment From Fred Wilpon
What are the Mets going to do about Daniel Murphy? I assume just trade him for a low level prospect, right? If this was the real Fred Wilpon, by the way, I would have no idea Daniel Murphy is even a player on this team.

Neil Weinberg: I think the Mets could reasonably contend this year. Keep him?

Comment From The book of revelations
If you combined Headley and Hanley, you would have Heandley, and he would be a very good player.

Neil Weinberg: HeadRam?

Comment From Chase
Do you see the Rangers really going for Upton and competing this year? Do they have the pieces to have a chance with Seattle, Anaheim and Oakland?

Neil Weinberg: Yes and yes. People are going to really underrate the Rangers this year. Their collapse was health related last year. There’s a lot of talent on that club when healthy. A couple moves and they are legit contenders

Comment From john
What do you do if you are the mets? Is it worth trading a cost controlled pitcher (or more) for a minimal SS upgrade over flores (as has constantly been suggested)? I’d almost assume either make a dynamite offer for Tulo or go into the year with Flores. And for pete’s sake, sign monchada!

Neil Weinberg: Mets should over pay a little for a Lowrie type player. Although if they can land Tulo, they should probably land Tulo. A swap with the Cubs might work too

Comment From Jim
Who gets Moncada?

Neil Weinberg: Wild guess: Angels

Comment From Matt
I think Texas could be a dark horse on a Shields type. They need pitching and probably should spend something to appease the fan base.

Neil Weinberg: Very possible. The pitching market is going to be very interesting.

Comment From Chase
The NL East has some talented and young teams (besides PHI of course). Of the rest, who do you see winning the most games in the next 4 years?

Neil Weinberg: Nats, but the Marlins and the Mets would be right behind

Comment From Neil Weinberg
How long until Arizona escapes the shame (and resulting roster clustercuss) of having employed Kevin Towers?

Neil Weinberg: Not that long. If you have decent financial resources, you can turn things around quickly

Comment From The 1 Padres fan with internet access
Of the remaining free agents, who would be your biggest landmine?

Neil Weinberg: Nelson Cruz? Maybe Shields. A lot of the contracts that are going to get handed out will be mid range money and those are rarely going to blow up

Comment From The 1 Padres fan with internet access
The Padres should trade Kennedy for multi-year assets, not a one-year rental, right?

Neil Weinberg: Correct.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
I asked Dave this too. Still a good chance the Yanks land Headley, McCarthy, and Drew (last on a one-year deal)? I fear they won’t keep Robertson. Is this a likely out come and is it a good one?

Neil Weinberg: Seems like a pretty reasonable path for them, although their reported offer to Headley isn’t enough. Although, you never know how accurate those reports are

Comment From The 1 Padres fan with internet access
Would any AL teams take Quentin as a DH even if the Padres kicked in all but $2 million? $1 million? Major league minimum?

Neil Weinberg: I bet there would be a few AL teams who’d get involved

Comment From Chase
With Tampa losing its two prized management figures, declining minor league talent and inability to resolve its stadium issue, has a clock begun ending major league baseball in Tampa?

Neil Weinberg: The stadium issue is the one to watch. Losing Friedman was a blow, but they have a lot of other good people working there. They need a better stadium and the ability to get the payroll up and then it’s a non issue

Comment From Matt
I think the Royals would be a fun fit for Quentin with a bit of money kick on. They could use a DH with some power.

Neil Weinberg: That could work

Comment From The 1 Padres fan with internet access
What 2 moves should the Rays make?

Neil Weinberg: Trade Joyce and relievers, extend Cobb

Neil Weinberg: Quick two minute break, then I’ll hand out for a few more minutes. Get your last questions in now

Comment From Guest
What do you think a Garrett Richards extension would look like? He’s projected to get $4M in arbitration, and I believe is a super 2 guy

Neil Weinberg: 6/65?

Comment From Everyone Loves the Padres
How well do minor league platoon splits transfer to the majors?

Neil Weinberg: I think generally batters splits get larger, but I don’t know for sure.

Comment From Ramsey Bolton
Are there any teams that you feel have a terrible game plan for the present/future? conversely, who, in your opinion, has the best teambuilding model at present?

Neil Weinberg: Cardinals seem to be the best. Phillies, Rockies seem to be in the worst position. Reds don’t necessarily have a bad plan, but they’re in a really tough decision spot.

Comment From Ericc22
Thoughts on the Yankees at 3b and 2b – smart move to put Prado at third and try a rookie at 2b? Who do you like, Pirela or Ref?

Neil Weinberg: I think Headley should still be their target

Comment From The 1 Padres fan with internet access
Royals management has made lots of noise about wanting a “flexible” DH who could play the field some too. That is not Quentin. Who would be a better fit for the Royals at DH?

Neil Weinberg: Allen Craig?

Comment From john
At what point do we call Sandy Alderson’s Mets tenure a bust, or is this 100% on the Wilpons? The Major League talent evaluation has been awful. Sure, accumulating talent in the minors is great, but waiting 5, 6, 7 years is getting old. Plus, when the crown jewel draftee is an outfielder who probably cant stay in center, who has no power, and Ks 28% of the time, maybe we are overrating his minor league talent evaluation as well.

Neil Weinberg: Mets are about to put out a rotation with Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, deGrom, Niese, Colon, etc. It seems like if they were able to spend in line with their market, the holes on the team would get filled with really good FA and they’d be set. So probably ownership more than anything? Some of that is guessing

Comment From Ceej
Is the risk worth the wasted roster spots for Buxton/Sano in a long term keeper, or wait to draft?

Neil Weinberg: Yes if you’re not committed to going all out in 15

Comment From Brandon
All things being equal (compensation, hours, etc.), would you rather work in a front office of your choosing or as a writer? If a team, where and why?

Neil Weinberg: Writer.

Comment From cecilfieldersbuttplug
at this moment, would you rather have Billy Hamilton, or Jacoby Ellsbury? contracts.. etc. is all real

Neil Weinberg: If I’m trying to contend, Ellsbury, if I’m rebuilding, Ham.

Comment From Guest
What pitchers do you think the Rangers might end up trading for? Also how bad is Profar’s value now?

Neil Weinberg: Cueto might be interesting there. I don’t think Profar’s value is that low. He’s young. Injury hurts, but doesn’t torpedo.

Comment From Boss
When it comes to factoring in trade value for Cole Hamels it seems that no one is talking about alot of teams having hard limits to signing pitchers to long contracts (5 years). Shouldn’t this factor into his valuation since that effectively eliminates elite pitchers as an option for those teams?

Neil Weinberg: Not many teams have those limits.

Comment From Free Scott McKinney
What kind of return could the Royals get if they traded Holland (2 arb years left, this year projected around $8-9 million)?

Neil Weinberg: Good not great prospect, okay prospect

Comment From Bill
THIS IS THE LAST QUESTION

Neil Weinberg: This isn’t even a question!

Comment From Free Scott McKinney
Will Fangraphs ever add minor league career totals or a minor league page so I never need to leave to visit Baseball-Reference?

Neil Weinberg: Perhaps someday!

Neil Weinberg: Alright, going to wrap this up. Everyone have a nice weekend and we’ll do it again next week when there will be a lot more action and people trying to avoid work!