Neil Weinberg Winter Meetings Chat – 12/10/14

Neil Weinberg: Hey all. Going to assume that most questions will focus on wheeling and dealings out of San Diego, but you’re also welcome to fire off any and all questions about stats/metrics/data/FG. We’ll start at 3pm and I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you’re looking for me otherwise.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s do the thing where we chat.

Comment From Guest
What would Trumbo cost the Mariners?

Neil Weinberg: Not a ton. Prospect at the back end of a team’s top 10 or less. He’s not a great player and he’s getting pricey.

Comment From Zach
Is Dan Duquette ever going to do anything? I know he’s deliberate, but sheesh. Sign Melky and Morse and be done with it!

Neil Weinberg: I would expect them to make a Morse type deal soon, maybe trade for Byrd. I know it’s really unlikely, but I think they stand to gain a lot from a Scherzer deal. No one has come off the board that the O’s should have signed, really, so they’re still in good shape

Comment From jocephus
do bros call you the weinberger?

Neil Weinberg: Had a buddy who called me BergWein in that same tradition

Comment From Zach
I’m reading Byrd-to-the-O’s rumors. What would it take on the O’s part?

Neil Weinberg: Probably right around that Trumbo cost. He doesn’t have the youth, but the Phillies want more in return than the Dbacks across the board

Comment From Zach
Are there any surprising names being shopped around that are flying under the radar for whatever reason?

Neil Weinberg: Matt Joyce and Jay Bruce. Both are nice corner options (varying degrees) but they aren’t getting a lot of love because of Joyce’s lack of star power and Bruce’s down year

Comment From Zach
What non-Upton/Kemp starting outfielders are being shopped around?

Neil Weinberg: Bruce, Joyce, does Gattis count?

Comment From CatGuy
How does Fangraphs RA9-WAR differer from BR’s pitching WAR?

Neil Weinberg: RA9 is straight runs allowed controlling for park, playing time, etc. B-R uses runs allowed and makes corrections for defense (which we don’t do).

Comment From Stephen
Would you compare the winter meetings to a board game of Settlers or Diplomacy?

Neil Weinberg: I have never played diplomacy 🙁 sorry

Comment From Paula Abdul
Do you see the Jays trading for an “impact” closer? Is that worth it if they have to give up Norris? Also what do you think of their off-season so far?

Neil Weinberg: No. No. Love it.

Comment From Paula+Abdul
This isn’t a question. People were pretty mean to Dave Cameron in his last chat.

Neil Weinberg: He can handle it, I’m sure.

Comment From Stephen
Are there many product vendors at the Winter Meetings?

Neil Weinberg: I’ve never been, but there are things of that nature.

Comment From George
Who says no, Z. Lee-sp, C. Anderson-sp, and J. Pederson-cf for Hamels and Rollins with LA paying all the money – Phillies or Dodgers?

Neil Weinberg: Dodgers

Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts
Any chance the Braves end up shipping either Upton, Gattis, or Johnson and get anything in return?

Neil Weinberg: I think they will wind up trading Upton and holding the other two. Upton will get a nice return, just not a great one

Comment From Pat
Though it might seem like a minor move, what do you think about Mets exploring a trade for Danny Valencia? I think this would provide them insurance if Wright were to go down against lefties where he really excels (With Murphy shifting over against righties), another righty bat to work into the platoon with Duda at first. Plus, with Donaldson in the fold, Valencia’s value is nil to the Blue Jays so he would not cost much to acquire.

Neil Weinberg: Seems reasonable, although I wouldn’t expect him to be any sort of major contributor.

Comment From Ceej
The boys AfterDark seemed to agree with Schoenfeld that if healthy, the Twins will promote Sano mid season before he’s quite ready, like with Baez last year. What say you?

Neil Weinberg: September. But all can say is that it won’t be before July

Comment From Kevin
With the white sox signings and then the trade for samardzija they seem to at least be attempting to get into the mix next year but they still have a lot of holes. Do you think they still have the money to add a LF like Rasmus or another mid tier guy to plug at least 1 or 2 of these holes?

Neil Weinberg: I think they do. The question is really more about what their plan really is. It’s possible this is a “see what happens 2015” with eyes on 2016 for real.

Comment From Scott
Neil, what are you thoughts on Mets dealing Murphy and Gee for salary dumps and signing Drew/Lowrie on 1/2 year deals and finding a LHP specialist? This makes them better no? Plus gives Sandy roughly $10-15MM to spend in the event they actually are good in July.

Neil Weinberg: Don’t have the arb projections in front of me. Does that really save that much cash? Those SS types are going to get $9-10M. I think the Mets are capable of a big year in 2016, but 2015 seems like a year to tinker.

Comment From Mark
S.Castro/A.Almora/B.McKinney for J.Cueto/J.Bruce who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Cubs. I think.

Comment From Zach
I apologize for flooding the queue. I just want you to feel wanted and needed.

Neil Weinberg: Would prefer too many to too few.

Comment From Aaron
Any news on what the Blue Jays are planning?

Neil Weinberg: I expect their looking at lower tier guys to play OF and fill out the rotation with some depth.

Comment From Thomas
Re: Rule V draft: any thoughts or rumblings about Deshields being taken? Is he stashable for a team like the Twins?

Neil Weinberg: Makes sense to me that he’d get picked up, but there are so few teams who are truly capable of stashing a player like that…maybe Twins.

Comment From Guest
Hi Neil. When we talk about $$/WAR and about how it will likely be around 7.5 per win by the time the offseason is over, are we just talking about the free agent market? I’m assuming that this isn’t taking into account all the guys who provide value who are making the major league minimum, correct?

Neil Weinberg: Correct. We discuss $/WAR based on the free agent market.

Comment From Ben
O’s have checked in on Cespedes apparently, what kind of return there? Chen?

Neil Weinberg: That could work. I’m not actually sure what his 2015 salary is, but that’s the kind of thing that makes sense. Maybe a low level prospect too

Comment From DraxTheDestroyer
How about KC? Just heard that their bullpen big 3 are no longer on the table….is DMGM just blowing smoke, or trying to up their value?

Neil Weinberg: He’s just trying to demonstrate that he’s willing to go into the season with all three still on the roster. Helps in negotiations. I think one gets dealt

Comment From Scott
Thoughts on Adam Eaton? Any reason he can’t score 100 Runs and have 170 Hits next year?

Neil Weinberg: I like him a lot.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Do the Mariners seriously want Viciedo?

Neil Weinberg: He’s their kind of player.

Comment From Christian
In an offseason where a lot of the moves have confused me, this Kemp to Padres is by far the most baffling if true. This just an example of Padres so tired of having a sucky offense that they are willing to do absurd things to at least be watchable in 2015?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not really sure anyone understands this. Kemp has the potential to bounce back to his pre injury levels, but the Padres are one of the teams that could benefit least from Kemp.

Comment From Market
Kemp for Grandal + Hahn and Dodgers throw in how much $$?

Neil Weinberg: Half?

Comment From Market
Duda’s HR output in 2015: 25 — over/under?

Neil Weinberg: Just over.

Comment From Cashman
Is there anything I can do to make this team competitive next year?????

Neil Weinberg: Sign Headley, keep people healthy.

Comment From Los
Settle a bet for me. Would you be able to construct a better 25 man roster for a 7 game series with the 5 “best” teams or the 25 “worst” teams where you choose the teams. What number of teams is the break-even for that question?

Neil Weinberg: Bottom 25. The best teams are the best because they typically have no black holes. Lots of bad teams have one or two great players.

Comment From jocephus
do you have a particular “take” on what BBeane is doing? seems he’s either a genuis or a a failed experiment (granted we as a society no longer allow for middle ground)

Neil Weinberg: The Donaldson trade is still what has me confused. They need to do some retooling, but he is a star player with a reasonable deal for at least one more year. Obviously, they wish they could have not lost Russell, but they also had a shot to go for it last year. I don’t think these were his best moves, but I don’t think the strategy in general is bonkers.

Comment From Guest
What is the value on the trade market of a pitcher such as Derek Holland who has a real good contract but is not an ace?

Neil Weinberg: Those guys typically get a nice return. Teams love trading for players who aren’t about to hit the market

Comment From Michael
Do you see a Jordan Zimmerman trade happening? Likely returns?

Neil Weinberg: I think they wind up keeping him. It’s a hard sell to your fan base to deal a star pitcher when you’re contending and the market clearly isn’t paying a lot for this type of player

Comment From nolan
if you’re the yanks do you go sign headley and mccarthy or mccarthy and scherzer?

Neil Weinberg: Headley and McCarthy, but I bet they wind up with Max

Comment From Sanchez
Odds that Jays sign Lester? if not, odds they fall back on shields?

Neil Weinberg: 0% and decent chance. Shields fits in TOR

Comment From BAM
If a team traded for Chapman should they turn him into a starter or has that ship sailed?

Neil Weinberg: Probably too late for that.

Comment From Choo
Blue Jays or Red Sox for next season?

Neil Weinberg: Jays right now, but Sox are going to add pitching still

Comment From mtsw
Dylan Bundy for Aroldis Chapman? Who says no?

Neil Weinberg: That’s interesting. Some people are kind of down on Bundy, but probably Orioles don’t do it.

Comment From GS1
What’s the scoop on the $/WAR calculations on the value page? Can we get a library update for that? How is FG getting that figure? I noticed for instance that Dave continually uses $7-7.5M for 1 win, but the value page has it more near $5M/Win

Neil Weinberg: The numbers on the pages are like $5 or $5.5M. That’s from when Dave originally did the calculations. It’s gone up since then but we haven’t done yearly updates. Going to do some updates to the business side stuff in the library though

Comment From mtsw
Should the Orioles use Darren O’Day to close considering every save they feed to an arb eligible player like Britton costs them money?

Neil Weinberg: You can save a little money that way, but you should really just focus on what’s best for the team in terms of wins and losses. That kind of arbitration stuff isn’t worth it if it costs you wins

Comment From Choo
Is Saunders/Happ the worst trade this offseason?

Neil Weinberg: I’m probably forgetting one, but it wasn’t a good move

Comment From Hammer
Let’s say that Mike Trout is a free agent. He tells teams he’s only willing to do a one year deal for 2015. What’s his highest bid? $40M? $50M?

Neil Weinberg: At least 40, no question. Probably 55-60

Comment From Colin
Seems like the Indians will have a crowded outfield with the addition of Moss. Do you see them being able to move one of Murphy/Swisher/Raburn/Bourn?

Neil Weinberg: They would like to swap Swisher, but there aren’t many takers. I bet they just kind of play it out and look for a late spring partner

Comment From John
Viciedo for Brad Miller?

Neil Weinberg: No way.

Comment From Giggles
Why do no FA want to sign with SF? Fear the odd year?

Neil Weinberg: SF tends not to be the top bidder.

Comment From Scott
Lowrie’s Def WAR last year was a 6, is this like Flores’ Def WAR being high because all I hear is Lowrie’s D is not good.

Neil Weinberg: Lowrie is a below avg SS, but below avg SS are above average overall on defense. That’s the +6 (compared to all positions). But that’s by UZR, DRS doesn’t like him. So somewhere between below average at SS and not very good there.

Comment From Blueyays
Why would you say SIERA is typically not used very often to evaluate pitchers’ performance? I’ve never really bought the move back towards using ERA more over the past couple of years, such as with the addition of RA/9 WAR, and I think it’s by far the best out of the advanced metrics/estimators. And I know that a common argument is that FIP takes actual results, while SIERA just tries to estimate what results should’ve been, but SIERA’s using results as well, just ones the pitcher has more control over. And plus, it regresses far less than xFIP. What am I missing?

Neil Weinberg: SIERA has a ton of inputs and *barely* beats xFIP. It’s not really worth the trouble, IMO.

Comment From nolan
think the rays would be open to trading longoria?

Neil Weinberg: Doubt it.

Comment From Guest
I’m the only one that thinks a Hamels to the Red Sox trade is unlikely? Once you consider what the Phillies would want, the assets(Contract + Prospects) required for Hamels outweigh just getting Lester back for $155M. I mean Hamels $110M contract plus the $35-$45M in prospects(say Owens + Margot) brings you close to it…Unless they prefer Hamels to Lester, but I doubt it.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think it happens this winter.

Comment From Giggles
Better record in 2015: Cubs or Blue Jays? … 2016?

Neil Weinberg: Jays. Cubs.

Comment From mtsw
What sort of contract would Babe Ruth get if he were a free agent today after his (say) age 28 season?

Neil Weinberg: Ohhh.. This is fun. Give me a sec.

Neil Weinberg: Like 10/500? And it would be a massive bargain.

Comment From Guest
Is there any way we could statistically look at command? I know Zone% and F-Strike are good for control, but command seems like you have to be watching it.

Neil Weinberg: Sportsvision has Commandf/x, but it’s not publicly available. They measure how far the landing spot is from the target

Comment From E
Any chance Julio Urias pitches in the majors next season?

Neil Weinberg: Possible near the end.

Comment From mtsw
Are teams with good defenses a more attractive option for FA pitchers looking for short term deals or do they not think of it like that?

Neil Weinberg: I doubt they pay much attention.

Comment From mtsw
Any data on whether certain players perform better at day or at night? Guys with below average eyesight should hit worse at night, logically. Or alternatively the 2014 Orioles seemed to be inexplicably awful in day games way beyond what should be explained by chance.

Neil Weinberg: usually not enough data to tell that much, but you would expect a difference based on a variety of variables, unfortunately we can rarely measure eyesight, etc

Comment From Market
What does Dee Gordon fetch on the open market? Who do the Dodgers have to replace him? I thought Guerrero was more OF than MI.

Neil Weinberg: Rosenthal said they were selling him as an All Star with lots of team control, which seems to ignore how new this performance level is. But he could nab an interesting arm that’s kind of the same young, weird track record thing

Comment From Jimmy
With most/all of the top-tier relief arms coming off the market in the past couple days, are you hearing anything about who the Jays might be targeting for bullpen help? Or do you have any ideas of who may be a good match in a trade? Thanks, hope you’re enjoying the warm weather down there!

Neil Weinberg: Cotts is a guy I’d watch.

Comment From Zach
Given the Jimenez signing, the O’s will never sign a top-50 SP as a free agent ever again. They are so cautious. They are still paranoid about injuries 15 years after the Albert Belle contract despite the fact that they were almost fully compensated by his insurance policy!

Neil Weinberg: The O’s are cautious, and that’s good most of the time. Signing Ubaldo was the wrong gamble, but hopefully it doesn’t prevent them from spending the right money on a good arm

Comment From Matt
I just wrote a piece today attributing Jon Lester’s success to a change in release point on the Curveball that was more consistent with his other pitches( like it was in 09-10). Whiffs/Swing went from 29% in 2011-2014 to 41% in 2014. It was especially effective versus RHH where is gained 16% more Whiff/Swing than 2013. RHH SLG just .151 against it compared to around .330 in those 11-13 years…..There is real and serious changes. But how sustainable are mechanical changes/changes in release point. 2014 was more similar to 2010 than 2013. Will be lose it again? Is here a link between Delta Release Point and Performance Increases? Or are these the things FO are trying to figure out.

Neil Weinberg: The problem is that release point is very fluid. If you fix it one way, it can lead to problems in other areas. It’s definitely real, but it’s also fickle. If that makes sense.

Comment From mtsw
Besides the Braves and Indians, which franchise could most benefit from a nickname/logo change?

Neil Weinberg: My joke answer is the Royals because of imperialism.

Comment From LOSH
What kind of contract do you see Colby Rasmus landing? Any slight chance the Jays take him back on a cheap deal?

Neil Weinberg: I think he takes a 1/12 type deal and tries to get a big deal next winter after a better season

Comment From Prich
Would signing Aoki and Rios to man RF be a cheaper, roughly equivalent alternative to the Ms who are looking into Melki?

Neil Weinberg: Those guys are going to want more PT than a job share. So yes, but also the second guy isn’t going to want to sign with you

Comment From Zach
Last week, someone reported a potential Heaney-for-Chris Davis swap. Any idea what happened to that? Not real? Marlins realize it was not good for them?

Neil Weinberg: There are so many non-real reports this time of year. Not just those kids who are making them up, but even legit reporters who are reporting stuff that’s not really news just because a source told them a team talked about it

Comment From Guest
I’m pretty high on Roenis Elias. Any chance Seattle would trade him for a Victorino/Napoli package?

Neil Weinberg: Just not sure Boston wants more young, potentially good arms. Seems like they want an established guy. But the idea could work with a third team

Comment From E
over/under Kris Bryant gets 450 PA

Neil Weinberg: Right around there. Slightly over

Comment From Scott
What would it take for the Mets to get Elvis Andrus or Jean Segura? Seems like two SS that can pick it and give you some Offense, so worth giving up prospects for.

Neil Weinberg: Segura might actually work, but they can’t really afford to add Elvis with their current issues. Problem is, do they want Segura after such a bad season? How much do you buy 2013? Not Noah or anything, but maybe they offer one of the lesser arms

Comment From Plucky
What sort of interest do you think Dexter Fowler would draw?

Neil Weinberg: Some. Decent player but not that cheap

Comment From George
The Marlins want D. Gordon for 2b. If LA asks for Heaney-sp, who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Fish?

Comment From DoolittleFan60
Given their wealth of young infielders, any chance the Cubs trade A. Russell, and if so, which team would be a good fit for a trade?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t see them trading Russell. Teams just don’t deal the best prospect in baseball (according to some rankings people)

Comment From mtsw
If you’re Dan Duquette and you plan on both 1) trading Chris Davis 2) signing Steve Pearce to an extension, which is the ideal order to do these in, in terms of maximizing value?

Neil Weinberg: Doesn’t really matter. Probably sign Pearce first?

Neil Weinberg: Alright, quick two minute break. Throw in some more questions and we’ll keep it rolling.

Comment From Garrett
True or False: Somebody not currently in the Cardinals organization begins Opening Day in the Cardinals rotation?

Neil Weinberg: True.

Comment From mtsw
What’s a good holiday gift for an infant nephew if I want to steer him into playing/liking baseball as he gets older?

Neil Weinberg: I bought all my nieces and nephews a miniature Paws (Tigers mascot) pillow pet when they were born. They’re too young to understand stuff, so just work on fostering the attachment to something baseball related. I taught one of my nieces to say “Go Max!” and “Go Tigers!” Hoping it works!

Comment From Kelvin
Alex Wood for Nolan Arenado. Who hangs up?

Neil Weinberg: Rockies.

Comment From Bill
What should the Dodgers give up to land Hamels and Rollins?

Neil Weinberg: Lee and some less recognizable stuff.

Comment From mtsw
What would be a realistic way for the MLB to make winning your division (and being excellent overall) translate to better post-season odds? Or are they comfortable with it being a crapshoot and 85-win teams regularly winning the WS?

Neil Weinberg: I think they like it. But take away the travel day for the WC.

Comment From mtsw
What player from the last 20 years should’ve had a better career but for being on the wrong team/wrong situation?

Neil Weinberg: Good question.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know. Let’s all think on this for homework

Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug
Hey Neil. I always ask about my 1000$ bet that the cubs will win 79 games or better this year. Im sitting pretty right now huh?

Neil Weinberg: Looks pretty good.

Comment From Garrett
Do you see Mozeliak being completely honest when he says the Cardinals are content to evaluate the market for a bargain, 5-type starter closer to Spring Training? Any rumblings? Would they take a serious run at Scherzer?

Neil Weinberg: I think it’s most likely they sign one of the non-star pitchers. Lots of options. But I honestly expect them to be a major player for Scherzer.

Neil Weinberg: Wainwright isn’t going to be an ace forever and they have the flexibility to fudge the payroll in the short run.

Comment From Grohman
I feel like at least one of the SPs the Red Sox end up with will be a surprise, not one of the usual suspects everyone is talking about. Thoughts? Kazmir?

Neil Weinberg: Yup, I agree. Kazmir makes sense as a target

Comment From mtsw
Adam Silver (NBA commish) has called on sports gambling to be legalized in the US. Do you think MLB could get behind this or does the centuries-old Black Sox scandal still make this taboo?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think it matters. Baseball betting isn’t very interesting relative to the other sports because of the volume of games and randomness.

Comment From Garrett
Ultimately, what does Scherzer sign (with any team) for?

Neil Weinberg: I think he gets around 7/190 with a vesting option. Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Orioles, Nationals, Rangers in something resembling that order

Comment From Chris
re: mtsw’s question: Mark Prior? Another team wouldn’t have had a manager who so abused his pitchers, especially his young pitchers.

Neil Weinberg: Oh yeah…

Comment From DoolittleFan60
Of all the young Red Sox starters — Renaudo, Owens, Rubby etc. — who do you think begins the season as the No. 4-5 starter?

Neil Weinberg: Rubby and Webster for spot number five.

Comment From Sean
What kind of pitching prospect does Wade Miley yield?

Neil Weinberg: The funny thing is that he probably brings back a Wade Miley-type

Comment From (o)(o)
Do you think the Tigers trade for an OF or is it all smokescreen for a minor acquisition?

Neil Weinberg: They should trade for one, but they’re probably not going to do much of anything.

Comment From Scott
What would it take for the Mets to land Jake McGee?

Neil Weinberg: Kind of an odd target for them right now. About to get expensive, though, so one of their non-elite guys and another thing

Comment From Guest
who signs first Shields or Scherzer?

Neil Weinberg: Shields.

Comment From (o)(o)
Do you think the presence of Moya is a major factor that the Tigers don’t obtain another OF? The team is (and has been) heavily RH in its lineup. Colby Rasmus would seem like a great fit on a one-year deal.

Neil Weinberg: Tigers love stars and there are no stars available to acquire right now for the OF. They like Moya, but he’s not an elite prospect or anything that will be a star by August

Comment From Sean
Do you think the Diamondbacks trade Trumbo?

Neil Weinberg: Yes.

Comment From Guest
Joc for addison ?

Neil Weinberg: Cubs say no, but it’s not crazy

Neil Weinberg: They would only deal him for a young, about to be star. That could be Joc.

Comment From mtsw
Should Dan Duquette be pissed that the Orioles’ ownership publicly said they wouldn’t allow him to be released from his contract if offered the Blue Jays CEO position (even though the position turned out not to even be open?)

Neil Weinberg: That was such a weird situation.

Comment From John
Why trade for 1 year of Samardzija? The White Sox have a black hole in LF and potentially one at 2B

Neil Weinberg: Because if they want to contend in 2015 they keep adding and if they wind up not contending they can deal him in July or use the QO

Comment From The Wackiest
There has been some press in Detroit that the Tigers ought to explore a Kinsler trade. Is there a market for him, and if so, what do you think he would return? The Tigers do have other MIF; not as good as Kinsler, but if they make it up somewhere else, it all washes out.

Neil Weinberg: Tigers need Kinsler if they want to be good this year. If they want to rebuild, they should have done a lot of stuff differently. But he’d get you back a nice prospect or a slightly worse version of himself with more control

Comment From Grohman
Just read that the Orioles are interested in Cespedes…maybe our surprise Red Sox SP acquisition is Wei-Yin Chen or Bud Norris…

Neil Weinberg: This came up earlier. Cespedes makes sense for BAL, BOS might like to add one of the O’s stock of mid rotation guys.

Neil Weinberg: Last call for questions!

Comment From Alex
Why not take DeShields Jr. and give him a shot? If he sucks send him back and it costs like 50k or whatever…

Neil Weinberg: Sure, but if you don’t think he’s ready then you might not want to burn the 40-man and 25 man spot right away.

Comment From Alex
Is there a way to check average distance on fly balls given up by a pitcher?

Neil Weinberg: You can do it with Baseball Savant, at least if you download the spreadsheet. You can do it for hitters at BBHM, so pitchers might work too

Comment From The Wackiest
Tigers (disappointingly) bring back Dirks, do no more?

Neil Weinberg: I like Dirks. But they still need a bona fide guy.

Neil Weinberg: Let’s call it an afternoon. Good talk. Same time next week.