NERD Game Scores for Monday, September 28, 2015
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
McCullers (114.2 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Elias (107.1 IP, 106 xFIP-)
There are probably reasons to continue following the outcomes of National League games over this final week of the season, but nearly zero of them concern the influence of those same games on what might be called the “postseason landscape.” Indeed, so far as postseason landscapes are concerned, the American League has developed a monopoly on them. The Western division, in particular, is not unlike a mountain road populated almost exclusively by scenic vistas of postseason landscapes.
Regard, the current playoff odds of the three relevant clubs, rendered into a handsome table:
| Team | W | L | GB | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF | |
| 1 | Rangers | 84 | 71 | 0.0 | 87.5 | 74.5 | 81.4% | 12.7% | 94.1% |
| 2 | Astros | 82 | 74 | 2.5 | 85.4 | 76.6 | 8.9% | 56.6% | 65.5% |
| 3 | Angels | 81 | 74 | 3.0 | 84.7 | 77.3 | 9.7% | 25.0% | 34.7% |
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features St. Louis at Pittsburgh, starts at 19:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand. Finnegan | CIN | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 | WAS | Max Scherzer | 15:05 |
| Ed. Rodriguez | BOS | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | NYA | Ivan Nova | 19:05 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | PIT | J.A. Happ | 19:05 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | BAL | Chris Tillman | 19:05 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | CLE | Corey Kluber | 19:10 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | TEX | Colby Lewis | 20:05 |
| Yordano Ventura | KC | 9 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 8 | CHN | Kyle Hendricks | 20:05 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 2 | LAA | Hector Santiago | 22:05 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | SEA | Roenis Elias | 22:10 |
| Zack Greinke | LAN | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | SF | Jake Peavy | 22:15 |
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I don’t quite understand how NERD came up with this one. St. Louis and Pittsburgh are separated by three games and they are playing each other. Houston is 2.5 out but Seattle is eliminated… I would have thought the Cardinals game would be the one to watch.
I don’t entirely understand it, either. But learning to accept my shortcomings has allowed me to become the man I am today. The profoundly lonely, serially disappointing man I am today.
Agreed… looking at the abbreviated slate of games today, STL/PIT seemed like the ONLY game. Of course a sweep is unlikely, and both teams make the playoffs anyway, but yeah.
So am I the only person who thought, “Ooooh! Cubs vs. Royals!”?
would have been a cool matchup a few weeks ago, but neither of those teams has much to play for at this point.
Some may think that NERD is worthless if it spits out a different result from what they think they already know, but it would truly be worthless if always recommended what we expected it to.
Upon further review, the original poster (me) now sees that the Angels are a mere half-game behind the Astros. Considering the consequences of a loss for Houston, I am now able to understand why NERD recommended the Houston game.
Lance McNasty is also a factor
The Cardinals have a higher team nerd score than the Jays? And the Giants have the same as the Jays? I just don’t get it:
Wondering outloud whether an 8-team playoff would be a good thing… You’d have 79-76 Washington and 80-75 Minnesota as the 8 seeds… I think I’d like to see an 8-team playoff, yes. 7 games/series. Do it now! Baseball!
If they hadn’t foolishly created divisions a few decades back, this would be quite the pennant race in both leagues. STL vs PGH for the NL while the Blue Jays and Royals would be neck and neck for the AL.
Pitt will sweep STL. Cards look terrible right now. Watching Arrieta shut down the Cards in a one game playoff at Busch will be great.
I’m confused as to why Hendricks gets a “9” pitcher score. He doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t have an extreme K%, and has a good-not-great FIP- of 90. What gives?!
He’s young and works quickly.
I continue to be amazed at the love NERD throws out for Kyle Hendricks