NERD Game Scores for September 09, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Porcello (186.2 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Estrada (49.1 IP, 107 xFIP-)
If one is inclined to choose a game, even a game in September, for the quality of the pitching matchup it offers, then tonight’s encounter between Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez is very clearly the crème of that particular crème — and, as any number of billboards along rural state highways in this country are inclined to remind the public, this is a free country. In the event, however, that one is more inclined towards the sort of conflict which is the staple of narrative structure, then the conflict created by the Blue Jays’ and Red Sox’ nearly equal and definitely opposite designs on the AL East title offers a strong example of that sort of pleasure, as well.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Two Other Brief Notes
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Los Angeles NL and Miami, starts at 19:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

On NERD’s Playoff Adjustment, the Cubs, and the Rangers
As the season wears on, the algorithm for game NERD scores weights team scores progressively more heavily and pitcher scores less heavily — to account for the greater influence of a team’s posteason chances on the watchability of their games. Also as the season progresses, the algorithm for those team NERD scores weights various performance factors (weighted batting, adjusted home-run rate) less heavily and playoff odds more heavily.

The idea of the postseason adjustment is to assess higher NERD scores to clubs which feature less certainty regarding the postseason. To accomplish this, the author begins with the divisional odds and wild-card odds and finds the absolute value of each number minus 0.5 (or, 50%). I then add the results together divide by two. Then I subtract the result of that figure from 0.5 and multiply the resulting number by 20. Finally, I normalize all the scores to create a league average of 5.0.

Here’s all of that using the Chicago Cubs as an example. The Cubs have divisional and wild-card odds of 100.0% and 0.0%, respectively, using the site’s “coin flip” methodology (which seems to best represent how the human mind conceives of postseason odds).

  • [ |1.000 – 0.5| + |0.000 – 0.5| ] / 2 = 0.500
  • (0.5 – 0.500) * 20 = 0.0

That 0.0 number is the postseason adjustment just before it’s normalized to create a league average of 5.0. The raw league average right now is 1.61. So, to find the Cubs’ score we subtract that figure from 5.0 and add the difference to the Cubs’ raw score.

So:

  • 0.0 + (5.0 – 1.61) = 3.4

That 3.4 represents Chicago’s current playoff adjustment — a figure to which the team’s NERD score will gravitate continuously as the season continues. It’s also the lowest possible score a club can receive at the moment, one shared mostly by very poor clubs that have been effectively (or literally) eliminated from postseason contention. Because, like those clubs, the Cubs aren’t playing games of any great consequence at the moment. Playing in a division where it appears as though 86 wins would be sufficient to claim that division, the Cubs have already recorded 89 wins. Which, that means they could lose every game for the rest of the season and still probably win the Central. A similar principle applies to the Texas Rangers, as well: they’ve already won 83 games, while second-place Houston is projected for just 86 wins.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for September 09, 2016
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Tim Adleman CIN 2 3 3 4 2 PIT Steven Brault 19:05
Jake Thompson PHI 2 3 3 4 4 WAS Tanner Roark 19:05
Blake Snell TB 5 4 6 6 10 NYA Michael Pineda 19:05
Rick Porcello BOS 6 10 8 10 4 TOR Marco Estrada 19:07
Kevin Gausman BAL 8 9 8 7 9 DET Michael Fulmer 19:10
Clayton Kershaw LAN 10 5 6 4 10 MIA Jose Fernandez 19:10
Robert Gsellman NYN 7 7 5 3 5 ATL Julio Teheran 19:35
Jon Lester CHN 6 4 5 5 8 HOU Joe Musgrove 20:10
Danny Salazar CLE 8 5 5 4 7 MIN Tyler Duffey 20:10
Yordano Ventura KC 6 4 4 3 7 CHA Carlos Rodon 20:10
Jimmy Nelson MIL 2 4 6 8 8 STL Carlos Martinez 20:15
Madison Bumgarner SF 7 8 6 4 6 AZ Rubby de la Rosa 21:40
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 3 4 4 3 5 OAK Daniel Mengden 22:05
Yu Darvish TEX 7 4 4 3 6 LAA Tyler Skaggs 22:05
Tyler Chatwood COL 4 4 5 4 8 SD Luis Perdomo 22:40
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mattmember
7 years ago

I think tonight calls for split screen viewing.