NERD Game Scores: Presenting All July’s Best Starter
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Jacob deGrom (80.2 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (16.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). The former, as illustrated by the table below and further supported by this hyperlink to the relevant leaderboard, has recorded the best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualified starters in July so far.
| # | Name | Team | G | GS | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | GB% | xFIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | Mets | 4 | 4 | 26.0 | 103 | 33.0% | 4.9% | 47.6% | 50 |
| 2 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 5 | 5 | 35.0 | 133 | 30.8% | 3.8% | 51.2% | 53 |
| 3 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 29.0 | 113 | 30.1% | 2.7% | 57.3% | 55 |
| 4 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 5 | 5 | 32.2 | 132 | 30.3% | 5.3% | 44.6% | 58 |
| 5 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4 | 4 | 30.0 | 111 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 61.8% | 60 |
The 26-year-old deGrom faces a Milwaukee club which possesses the highest current odds of winning the NL Central division.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL Television.
Three Brief Notes
Regarding Jake Peavy, An Undeniable Fact
Right-hander Jake Peavy, very recently acquired by San Francisco from Boston, is scheduled to debut tonight for the former of those clubs.
Regarding Shane Greene, Two of his Virtues as a Pitcher
While Yankees right-hander Shane Greene’s virtues as a person exist largely outside the scope of a post such as this one, two of his virtues as a pitcher are clear: over his 19.0 innings as a starter, he’s recorded just a 79 xFIP- and also an average fastball velocity of 93.4 mph — both above-average figures, those, relative to this season’s population of starting pitchers.
Regarding Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Washington at Cincinnati, starts at 1:10pm ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 9 | NYA | Shane Greene* | 13:05 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | CIN | Mat Latos | 13:10 |
| Vidal Nuno | AZ | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | PHI | Rob. Hernandez | 13:35 |
| Allen Webster* | BOS | 7 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | TB | Chris Archer | 13:40 |
| Scott Carroll | CHA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | MIN | Yohan Pino | 14:10 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | KC | Bruce Chen | 14:10 |
| Jacob Turner | MIA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | HOU | Collin McHugh | 14:10 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYN | 8 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 | MIL | Jimmy Nelson* | 14:10 |
| Ad. Wainwright | STL | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | CHN | Kyle Hendricks* | 14:20 |
| Rick Porcello | DET | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | LAA | Hector Santiago | 15:35 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | SEA | Roenis Elias | 16:10 |
| Edinson Volquez | PIT | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 1 | COL | Franklin Morales | 16:10 |
| Eric Stults | SD | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | ATL | Mike Minor | 17:05 |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 6 | TEX | Miles Mikolas | 19:05 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAN | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | SF | Jake Peavy | 20:07 |
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
#KeepNotGraphs
#OverthrowAppelman
It may be a little early to discuss the late-season scoring adjustment you made last year to reflect game importance. But I’m going to do it anyway.
I was thinking it would be preferable to include the adjustment all season long, scaled such that its effect in the early and middle parts of the season is small. For instance, the term could have a factor of (1/GR)^X where GR is games remaining and X is an arbitrary exponent (maybe just 1). The rest of the term would constitute some approximation of the leverage of the game. If you could actually get the difference between a win and a loss on the playoff odds that would be ideal. But as a proxy you could use the number of games to the nearest change in standing (e.g. games behind the WC spot, or games in front of 2nd place in the division). That number would also be in the denominator, also perhaps raised to an exponent.
So that’s (1/GR)^X * (1/GB)^Y where GR is games remaining, GB is games back (or ahead), and X and Y are exponents that scale the effect to your liking. This could obviously be riffed on in a number of ways.
Those are my thoughts. Thanks for the columns.
Pitchers I’d rather watch than Adam Wainwright:
Shane Wright, Salazar, DeGromm, Jimmy Nelson, Wbester, Ryu, Kazmir, Turner, Elias, Archer, Minor, Mikolas, McHugh, and Hendricks.
Oohf. That’s a 2.
I assume that Roberto Hernandez’s pitching watchability is -1.5 or so, but is offset by his batting watchability to produce roughly the same score as a potted plant.
Crazy to see Strasburg on that list considering how everyone is complaining about him these days due to the runs given up. I keep telling people he’ll start dominating very soon due to the peripherals. Still waiting.
His fastballs are getting crushed though, .358 wOBA and 138 wRC+ for his 4-seamer and .417/180 for his 2-seamer. Still a lot of K’s but it seems like guys are able to make solid contact of his FBs when they get a hold of them.
that was supposed to be a reply to cass.