NERD Scores Return with Something Not Unlike a Vengeance
As of 1997, when the the author visited the latter, just the Great Wall of China and Fresh Kills landfill in Staten Island shared the distinction of being the only man-made structures visible from space. Visible from space neither then nor now — and also made by what the author’s wife regards as “half a man at best” — are the NERD scores one finds below.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
NERD for Pitchers: Leaderboard and Formula
Leaders and Laggards
Here are the leaders thus far by pitcher NERD (minimum 20 IP as starter):
| Name | NERD | xFIP- | SwStrk | Strk | Velo | Age | Pace | Luck | KN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Fernandez | 10 | 2.72 | 2.43 | 1.32 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.73 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 10 | 2.11 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 1.35 | 0.86 | -0.07 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 10 | 2.41 | 2.47 | 1.86 | 0.24 | 0.86 | -1.32 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Michael Wacha | 10 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 1.35 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ervin Santana | 10 | 2.01 | 2.77 | 0.94 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yordano Ventura | 10 | 0.68 | 1.31 | 0.12 | 2.46 | 1.35 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zack Greinke | 10 | 2.47 | 1.27 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.15 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 10 | 0.83 | 0.19 | 1.71 | 2.07 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Wood | 10 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cliff Lee | 10 | 1.55 | 0.24 | 2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
And here, not for nothing, are the laggards by that same measure:
| Name | NERD | xFIP- | SwStrk | Strk | Velo | Age | Pace | Luck | KN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Maholm | 0 | -2.03 | -1.70 | -1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| Scott Feldman | 0 | -1.52 | -1.78 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Correia | 0 | -1.77 | -1.91 | -0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.26 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Burnett | 0 | -1.21 | -0.71 | -1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hector Santiago | 0 | -1.47 | -1.82 | -1.60 | 0.06 | 0.62 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 0 | -1.36 | -0.84 | -0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.58 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| John Danks | 0 | -1.82 | -0.11 | -1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 0 | -1.82 | -1.52 | -1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 1 | -1.87 | -1.74 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Gibson | 1 | -1.06 | -1.27 | -1.87 | 0.00 | 0.62 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Formula
The formula for pitcher NERD remains largely unchanged since last season — with the exception that ERA and xFIP have been replaced by park-adjusted ERA and xFIP (i.e. ERA- and xFIP-) for Greatest Precision. Below are the components included in its calculation:
• xFIP-
• Swinging-Strike Rate (SwStrk)
• Strike Rate (Strk)
• Velocity (Velo)
• Age
• Pace
• ERA- minus xFIP- (Luck)
• Knuckleball Rate (KN)
And here’s the formula itself:
(zxFIP- * 2) + (zSwStrk / 2) + (zStrk / 2) + zVelo + zAge + (zPace / 2) + (Luck / 20) + (KN * 5) + Constant
Notes
• Any variable preceded by a z represents the z-score — or standard deviations from the mean — of the relevant metric. The population used for determining the mean in this case includes all pitchers who’ve thrown 20 innings as a starter.
• Players are never assessed negative, but only positive, scores for Velo, Age, and Luck. Any number that would be below zero is simply rendered as zero. Note that Velo and Age are capped at 2.0; Luck, at 1.0. For science reasons.
• The constant at the moment is about 3.8.
NERD for Teams: Leaderboard and Formula
Leaderboard
Here’s the complete leaderboard for team NERD. A discussion of the components of, and formula for, team NERD follow below:
| Teams | NERD | Bat | HR% | BsR | Bull | Def | Pay | Age | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 10 | 1.12 | 2.38 | 1.78 | 0.19 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Rockies | 9 | 1.05 | 0.66 | 0.34 | -0.05 | 1.74 | 0.73 | 1.32 | 0.00 |
| Braves | 9 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 0.28 | 2.23 | 2.27 | 0.26 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Marlins | 9 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 1.06 | -0.68 | 0.64 | 1.55 | 1.32 | 0.39 |
| Pirates | 8 | -1.06 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.11 | -0.04 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1.60 |
| Rays | 7 | 0.57 | -0.22 | 0.62 | -0.68 | 0.45 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Brewers | 7 | 0.22 | 0.28 | -0.32 | 2.62 | 1.02 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Astros | 6 | -1.73 | 0.79 | -0.21 | -0.52 | -1.88 | 1.62 | 2.09 | 1.03 |
| Giants | 6 | 0.09 | 1.75 | -0.55 | 0.81 | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dodgers | 5 | 0.42 | 0.66 | -0.55 | 0.11 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Twins | 5 | 0.69 | -0.11 | 0.17 | -0.29 | -1.03 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Athletics | 5 | 1.50 | 0.87 | -1.98 | 0.58 | -0.84 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Indians | 5 | -0.29 | -0.79 | 1.11 | 0.26 | -1.29 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Blue Jays | 5 | -0.03 | 0.79 | 0.01 | -0.60 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Nationals | 5 | 0.66 | 0.31 | -0.93 | 1.13 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Mariners | 5 | -1.85 | 0.25 | -0.71 | -0.44 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 1.32 | 0.93 |
| Yankees | 5 | 0.13 | -0.57 | 1.28 | 0.03 | -0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cubs | 4 | -1.81 | -0.34 | 0.73 | -1.15 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 1.51 |
| Reds | 4 | -0.29 | -0.58 | 0.06 | -1.86 | 1.96 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Tigers | 3 | 0.25 | -0.12 | -0.32 | 0.11 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Red Sox | 3 | -0.33 | -0.08 | -1.37 | 1.13 | -0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Orioles | 3 | -0.32 | -1.05 | 0.23 | -0.21 | -0.39 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| D-backs | 3 | -1.56 | -0.81 | -0.93 | 0.42 | -0.26 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rangers | 3 | -0.07 | -1.36 | 0.84 | -0.60 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| White Sox | 3 | 0.53 | 0.47 | -1.71 | -1.93 | -0.91 | 0.00 | 1.32 | 0.00 |
| Padres | 3 | -2.11 | -1.05 | 0.84 | 0.03 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Mets | 3 | -1.96 | -1.16 | 1.44 | -0.60 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Royals | 3 | -1.37 | -1.79 | -0.55 | 1.13 | 1.35 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Phillies | 2 | -0.36 | -0.76 | -0.55 | -0.91 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cardinals | 1 | -1.08 | -1.38 | -1.59 | -0.36 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
Formula
The formula for team NERD — and that formula’s assorted variables — are all below.
Here are the components included in its calculation:
• Park-Adjusted Batting Runs Above Average (Bat)
• Park-Adjusted Home Run Rate (HR%)
• Baserunning Runs (BsR)
• Bullpen xFIP (Bull)
• Defensive Runs (Def)
• Payroll, Where Below Average Is Better (Pay)
• Batter Age, Where Younger Is Better (Age)
• Expected Wins, Per WAR, Minus Actual Wins (Luck)
And here’s the formula for team NERD:
zBat + zHR% + zBsR + (zBull / 2) + (zDef / 2) + zPay + zAge + (Luck / 2) + Constant
Notes
• As with pitcher NERD, any variable preceded by a z represents the z-score of the relevant metric — in this case, relative to averages for the whole league.
• Teams are never assessed negative, but only positive, scores for Pay, Age, and Luck. Any number that would be below zero is simply rendered as zero. Note that Luck is capped at 2.0.
• The constant for team NERD is currently at about 4.0.
Today’s Highest-Rated Game
Cleveland at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Justin Masterson (28.0 IP, 87 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Tyler Skaggs (28.0 IP, 100 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). With regard to the Angels, it would appear as though their poor-ish record at the moment (11-13) has little to do with the quality of the club’s field players. To wit: they’re second in the majors by park-adjusted hitting (113 wRC+) and first overall in batter WAR (6.2). The club’s starting pitchers, meanwhile, have skewed decidedly more mediocre.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Oakland at Texas | 20:05 ET
Sonny Gray (32.0 IP, 84 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR) faces Yu Darvish (28.0 IP, 91 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR). Of note regarding the latter: while, for much of last year, his overall excellence more than compensated for his very slow pace, that’s less so the situation thus far in 2014. Neither Darvish’s park-adjusted xFIP (91 xFIP-) nor his swinging-strike rate (9.7%) are even half a standard deviation better than average.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire.
Note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Samardzija | CHN | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | CIN | Alfredo Simon | 19:10 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | TEX | Yu Darvish | 20:05 |
| Jake Odorizzi* | TB | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | CHA | Andre Rienzo* | 20:10 |
| Yovani Gallardo | MIL | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 10 | STL | Michael Wacha | 20:15 |
| Franklin Morales | COL | 3 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 6 | AZ | Wade Miley | 21:40 |
| Justin Masterson | CLE | 7 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 4 | LAA | Tyler Skaggs | 22:05 |
| Tyson Ross | SD | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | SF | M. Bumgarner | 22:15 |
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
NERD scores warm my heart and feed my soul.
And the Masses Rejoiced
Sloth loves Grichuk.
What does payroll have to do with how nice a game is to watch?
Star appeal. Like watching a movie with a big budget compared to small one.
Which would make total sense, however:
“Payroll, Where Below Average Is Better (Pay)”
Actually, lower budget is better, so it’s really “underdog appeal”. As in, there’s a bit of extra fun when watching a team like the Rays, A’s, or Pirates try to defy the odds despite low payrolls.
I think there’s also an element of big payroll teams are over represented in easy to find media coverage.
So if you want to see what the Rays, Royals, Astros…whoever…are up to, watch ’em yourself. At least that’s how I tend to think of it.
I also think of it this way. Assuming equal talent, who would you rather watch…a $200m payroll or a $60m?..an under-achieving lot or over-achievers?
[(System) x (Yu Darvish = Tyson Ross)] = worthless
SSS
Irrelevant. 99 times out of 100 a ticket buyer will prefer to see Yu over Ross. And 99/100 TV viewers will watch Yu. Author is apparently that 1 buyer/viewer.
There’s a whole bunch of math up there. This isn’t just a random opinion. Based on the formula and the results, right now, this is how it’s coming out. You are welcome to watch whichever game you prefer.
Wait, so you’re saying that 1% of the population are Padres fans and/or relatives of Tyson Ross? Or are you just rounding up? 🙂
What you’re saying here is entirely true about the Yu Darvish of 2012 and -13 — and might certainly be true of the rest-of-season Yu Darvish in 2014. However, note that (a) Darvish is inducing many fewer whiffs thus far this year than in the past two seasons and (b) swinging-strike rate becomes reliable somewhat quickly. It’s possible, if far from certain, that there’s something a bit less extraordinary about him at the moment than in the past.
Also, I certainly wouldn’t begrudge anyone their tastes. If someone enjoys Yu Darvish, then he or she should absolutely watch Yu Darvish. The scores are merely designed to provide a general framework for likely appeal — which, they’ve done a reasonable enough job of that over the past two seasons.
BOOM!
Lawyered.
Yep, totally…lawyered
Anyway we can give tomorrows Fernandez vs Wood: Round 2 a score of about a bajillionty?
Simon at a 3? Does the formula not account for violent felony arraignments?
What scale is xFIP- on? I thought it was on the same scale as xFIP, but if so, your “laggards” leaderboard for pitchers would seem to indicate that, in fact, Paul Maholm is having perhaps the greatest season in pitching history so far.
Looks to be a zscore. A negative zscore wrt xFIP- is not good.
I’d love to be able to see the readers’ preferred broadcast incorporated into the table somehow. I mean, I know I can go and refer to the appropriate page, but it would be kinda nice to see it at a glance.
Anyway, welcome back, NERD.
“For Science Reasons”
I realize this wasn’t the point, but you you simply cannot see the Great Wall from space. You can even barely see it from 30 miles up. Go ahead and pull it up on Google Earth to see for yourself. I’ll wait.
Think about it – walls are thin. Thin things are hard to see from far away. But you know what is incredibly easy to see from far away? Giant cities with large surface areas. While you may not be able to identify distinct buildings, it’s incredibly apparent looking at the earth where Beijing is while the Great Wall is a tiny thin line.
Anyway, NERD scores! Fun!
Is it coincidence or conspiracy that there are exactly 10 pitchers with NERD scores of 10?
NERRRRRRRRRRDS!
Happy to see these come back just in time for my start tomorrow!
“Nerd scores return with…
– a reprisal”
– a requital”
– an absence of forgiveness”
– a virulence”
– a paying back, of past transgressions”
It would be helpful to all aspiring ‘Nerds’ if when one puts the cursor over an Abbreviation that a simple explanation (or formula)that all can understand pops up.
This is done on ‘FanFacts’ so why not here?