Newman’s Own: Best Third Baseman of 2012
Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.
Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Baseman
1. Mike Olt, Texas Rangers
After being underwhelmed by what little I saw of Olt in Arizona, multiple contacts spent the season talking up Olt as a plus defender at third base with above average offense for the position. And while I’m still not ready to drink the kool-aid without hesitation, Olt receives the nod for the top spot due to his combination of high floor and the fact he has already debuted for Texas. On a list full Single-A or below players, upper level production is at a premium. In this instance, Olt, and Davidson for that matter, reap the rewards.
2. Matt Davidson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Few players make the jump from the California League to the Southern League and increase offensive output significantly. Matt Davidson did just that posting a 134 wRC+ while being young for the level of competition. His swing is long and Davidson profiles as a fringe average defender, but Pedro Alvarez produced a 2.9 WAR season fueled by power and walks in spite of high strikeout totals and defensive shortcomings. Davidson may follow a similar blueprint resulting in an above average regular at the big league level.
3. Travis Harrison, Minnesota Twins
After watching Harrison in person, I wonder if the Twins made a mistake by not challenging the young third baseman with a Beloit assignment to begin the 2012 season. At present, Harrison is a balanced player combining equal parts hitting ability and power projection. Additionally, he was a better defender than I was expecting to see given the reports of his being destined for first base. Expect him to transition nicely to full season baseball in 2013.
4. Edward Salcedo, Atlanta Braves
Salcedo is a physically imposing prospect with power potential at the third base position. However, his contact tool has developed more slowly than expected causing strikeouts to pile up while free passes dwindle. He’s still the highest ceiling bat in the Braves organization, but that’s due more to a lack of talent than status earned through strong production and scouting reports. If his peripherals don’t begin to take a turn for the better in Double-A, his value will take a hit.
5. Garin Cecchini, Boston Red Sox
Without question, Garin Cecchini had a productive season in Greenville of the South Atlantic League. Supporters will point to 46 extra base hits and 51 stolen bases and call me crazy for not ranking Cecchini in the top-3. In all honesty, they have a point on paper. Of course statistics are just a piece of the puzzle. In person, Cecchini scouts more like a tweener who whose skills would fit beautifully at second base. After looking for comparable big leaguers, I wonder if Daniel Murphy with more speed is fair.
6. Mitch Walding, Philadelphia Phillies
I have no idea what happened to Mitch Walding in the New York-Penn League, but he collapsed shortly after seeing him put on a spectacular batting practice display and a handful of great swings in game action. For now, he receives the benefit of the doubt from me because I trust my eyes more than lower level stats. However, Walding’s struggles have made him a must see for me in the South Atlantic League next season as few players make as strong a first impression as Walding did.
7. Dante Bichette Jr., New York Yankees
I have little doubt the Yankees prospect can hit after seeing him shorten up multiple times with two strikes and guide two singles off of Tim Hudson while on rehab assignment. However, I do question Bichette’s defensive ability, as well as his maturity after watching him yawn and horseplay his way through pre-game drills. At 19, he is likely to repeat the South Atlantic League where I’ll receive additional looks in 2013. After a disappointing season in Charleston, Bichette has the hitting ability to rebound should he develop a more professional approach.
8. Patrick Leonard, Kansas City Royals
Power projection? Leonard has it as the former fifth round pick slugged 14 home runs in his short season debut while maintaining a 10+% walk rate. On the field, he made a stronger first impression than uber-prospect Bubba Starling. With Lexington now a Royals affiliate, I’ll have ample opportunity to follow up on Leonard in 2013. A better look at his defensive abilities will help complete the profile.
9. Rio Ruiz, Houston Astros
In Greeneville, Ruiz presented with advanced plate discipline for his age and strong defensive chops. He struck out a couple of times on questionable pitches, but my first impression was of a prospect with a balanced set of skills. In seeing Ruiz, Lance McCullers Jr. and a brief glimpse of Carlos Correa, the future is bright for Houston fans after a strong 2012 draft.
10. Conor Gillaspie, San Francisco Giants
The oldest “prospect” on this list, Conor Gillaspie is your classic tweener with little left to prove at the minor league level. One can’t help but be at least a little impressed by his contact tool, but Gillaspie’s power and defense lag behind. He’ll never unseat Sandoval at third base in San Francisco, but even venturing to write another team would bite on Gillaspie as a starter based on his current skill set may be stretch.
11. Rosell Herrera, Colorado Rockies (SS)
Why don’t I pay much attention to short season batting lines? Herrera is a good example. After hitting .284/.361/.449 in 2011, the teenager cratered in Asheville of the South Atlantic League to the tune of .2o2/.271/.272 to begin the year. He was better after a return trip to short season, so maybe his second trip through the SAL will prove more fruitful. Herrera has all the tools to become a quality prospect, but is as unrefined as a prospect can be at this stage.
12. Brandon Drury, Atlanta Braves
Braves fans in desperate need of a hitting prospect to be excited about rallied about Brandon Drury’s .347/.367/.525 triple slash line last off-season. Another classic rookie league warrior, he struggled mightily in the first half (.187/.226/.270) before a respectable second half turnaround (.279/.323/.407). Drury had a few moments throughout the season where he presented as a big league bat. His defense at third base was also better than expected.
13. Francisco Martinez, Seattle Mariners
Once considered a top-5 prospect in the Detroit Tigers organization, Martinez struggled to a .227/.315/.295 triple slash line in Double-A. At 21, he was admittedly young for the level of competition, but I saw a fringe prospect with an iffy set of tools. On the field, it was abundantly clear Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Mike Zunino and Stefen Romero were considerably better prospects than Martinez.
14. Kyle Kubitza, Atlanta Braves
Kubitza was on his way to becoming a nice little sleeper in the Braves organization until a .156 July put a stop to that. In finishing with a .239/.349/.393 line, he established himself as a fine organizational player with a bit of upward mobility if things break right. For me personally, his loose hands and above average bat speed leave some room for improvement going forward.
15. Jason Esposito, Baltimore Orioles
Yes, Esposito was a former high round pick from Vanderbilt. Unfortunately for the Orioles, every concern about his bat entering the draft was proved accurate as the 22-year old posted an anemic .537 OPS in the South Atlantic League. To add insult to offense, Esposito didn’t present as the plus defender I was expecting to see. His combination of tools and skills leaves him more of an organizational player than premium big league defender with a fringe bat he was reported to be.
Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.
Where’s Nick Castellanos? Yes, he’s moved to RF but there’s a shot he moves back to 3B later down the road, depending on Miguel Cabrera’s situation.
Lea la introducción
I read the introduction, so I’m not hating, but it might be helpful to list some of the notable players at each position that you did not see. That way there’s no guessing as to whether or not you omitted a certain player based on a low grade or something.
Every 3B prospect I saw who was worth mentioning made the list. Same with every other position so far. I’ve read this request before, but readers must be able to think to themselves, “hmmmm, Castellanos isn’t listed, but Kyle Kubitza is. Mike must not have seen Castellanos.” No?
I’m not trying to be snarky, but I traveled to see all these guys and write about them from a 1st hand perspective. To ask me to then make a list of top 3rd base prospects who I haven’t seen goes pretty much against what I’ve always done which is to go out and see guys.
Whose list do I use? Where do I find the information? It’s essentially asking me to be Google searcher prospect guy to support a piece built from thousands of miles of travel and countless hours at the ballpark.
What do you think of Anthony Rendon? I know, he only played 43 games due to injury but he has to be one of the most exciting 3B prospects out there, am I wrong?
He hasn’t played anything but 3B in the minors, nor has there been an indication to move him off…Rizzo said he was going to play him at 3B in an interview after the draft as well.
Are you questioning yourself? I’m hoping to see him in person next summer when we make our yearly trip to upstate, NY. 2012 was a wash for him.
No, but I noticed the “projected position” part in the intro after I posted this so I was just clarifying that he *is* seen to be a 3B, as opposed to moving him to OF or 2B
Yes, but I didn’t see Rendon this season. Rendon would obviously rank very highly.
Do you think the Twins held back Harrison because Sano was playing 3rd in Beloit?
That might be the reason, but they could have split time at 3B/DH. I like Harrison. He was a bit of a poor man’s Arenado to me.
I really feel like Olt was rushed, he strikes out a lot, so skipping AAA seemed like a poor decision from a development standpoint. It also seems a shame that Olt will have to be moved across the diamond seeing as his defense at 3b is supposed to be good, is there any chance he could fake it in the OF for a couple of years until Beltre starts needing to DH/ play 1b? Of course this is a great problem for the Rangers to have, we have a great big league SS and 3b and also two really awesome prospects knocking on the door.
Yes, Olt has some red flags for me. I would have loved for one guy to be an easy decision for the top spot, but there isn’t a player on this list who doesn’t have a flaw. I’m not sure where Olt will end up, but not having him at 3B definitely hurts his value.
Your articles disappoint me because i’m a Jays fan and you weren’t able to watch their players 🙁
I’ve written a little about Jays guys from information provided by contacts, but they are a blind spot. Best way to get me to expand coverage and travel a greater distance is to keep supporting my work and spreading the word. More eyes equals more opportunity.
Mike, you didn’t get a chance to see Maikel Franco (thought you were a SALLy guy), or he didn’t make your top 15?
I’m not just a Sally guy anymore even though Rome is about an hour away. I still plenty of the SAL, but would have had to travel too far to catch Franco. He just isn’t enough of a high profile guy to warrant a special trip.
Mike, I enjoy these lists — it’s a good balance to the volumes of discussion that are based on second-hand reports and too many hours looking at stats pages.
For next year, I’d highly recommend you check out Tulsa — the Rockies have basically completely given up trying to develop prospects in the altitude of Colorado Springs (which to a lesser extent affects their A+ team in the Cal league), so the key window for a lot of their top guys is AA. This year included Arenado and Rutledge (before his call-up), next year, Kyle Parker, Corey Dickerson, and possibly more advanced players from this year’s Asheville team.
Here’s the thing Rusty, I see Asheville more than I care to now. I’ve seen and written about Parker and Arenado at length previously. I’ve also seen Dickerson as well. I have noticed the plethora of talent in the Texas League and I’d love to make the trip over. However, Tulsa would probably not be a stop given my ability to see plenty of Rockies guys.
Your Bichette comments are interesting because a big part of the Yankee reasoning for drafting him (as well as another 1st round pick Cito Culver) was a new focus on character and work ethic in their draft. Yet in all of the prospect write ups I see for Yankee prospects these kind of comments pop-up. Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez and now Dante Bichette all have questions of attitude/work ethic/make-up of some kind.
As a personal rule, I never write about that sort of thing unless something REALLY stands out. For about 45-minutes, I wound up watching his every move because it was so surprising.
I know that this isn’t the normal thing you talk about or put much stock in, so i take your observation seriously. I was just observing that strong character is probably a flawed reason to draft a player. There is little you can find out about a 17 or 18 yo kid who lives with his parents by sitting down in a living room and talking to him, or from his coaches, that will let you know how he’ll respond to the pressures and grind of a baseball season. So maybe they should just draft on talent and relegate the character analysis to the back burner.
To a point it is Preston. However, you want to know the person you are investing in.
holy cow, Daniel Murphy with speed would actually be a good player!
Yes, that is a pretty good outcome for Cecchini. My feeling is that the expectation is higher though.
well if there were a proper edit function, I would have re-written it as “Daniel Murphy with speed *and defense* would be a pretty darn good player!”
to be clear, as he is now, I don’t consider Murphy very good, so any comp to Murphy I don’t find too flattering. this reminds me of the Nick Franklin-Adam Kennedy comp which I didn’t find very flattering either.
However, in both cases maybe you were trying not to be flattering, not really sure…
Spike,
Take a few minutes and look through Baseball America top-100’s over the years. Far fewer prospects – good prospects even – become the kind of players you seem to be expecting. Most fall short of the expectations of prospect followers.
Mile:
my problem with this is that we aren’t talking about some generic or average prospect or what happens to the average B- prospect, say. We are talking about specific prospects and therefore, should be projecting them specifically, not what the typical prospect at a similar level turns into.
Spike,
That’s not how it works. Sorry to disappoint. Scouts travel to games and players remind them of somebody else. Skill sets are rarely unique. That’s why scouting grades exist in the first place. When a player’s skills (IE Stanton’s power) is perceived as unique, it generates a ton of buzz.
Every time these lists come out Mike says, explicitly, as he has with everything he has written on the site, that he will only talk about players he has actually seen in person with his two eyes. People, please get this in your heads and do not take it personally if there is a legitimate prospect you like that is omitted from something Mike writes (which again he mentions time and time again) because HE WILL ONLY WRITE ABOUT THOSE WHO HE HAS SCOUTED PERSONALLY.
I’ll also reference contacts at times when appropriate, but you pretty much summed up 98.72% of my writings.
Hey Mike, it doesn’t seem like there have been many Blue Jays prospects on these lists? Is that because you haven’t seen their teams as often, or are their position prospects just not very good, in your subjective opinion? .
I mentioned this in another comment. I rarely reference Blue Jays prospects because the closes affiliate is 7-8 hours from me. I rely on contacts for information on their prospects, but you won’t find that here since these lists are dedicated to guys I’ve seen.
Thanks for that Mike. I understand the methodology for these posts, I just wasn’t aware of the reason for the lack of Jays prospects. Keep it up, this has been a great series!
Will Bichette hit for power? It was a bit disconcerting to see his ISO fall off a cliff this year when his calling card was supposed to be huge right handed power.
And I think you might be being a little harsh about his makeup. He’s 19 years old, God forbid he have fun playing baseball.
Oh, I love guys who have fun playing baseball. This wasn’t that. This was a guy whose body language spoke of a player who wanted to be somewhere else..like taking a nap or something.
He’s 19 at A ball, this was an aggressive promotion for him. After how successful he was in his debut I get wanting to get him into full season ball, but maybe he should have been working on his D in extended spring training and mashing at SI this year instead of struggling in Charleston. The power is there, it will come if and when he starts making better contact. I’m much more concerned about his D, the fact is that league average production for a 1b is just so much higher than 3b, his probability of being a big league player drops dramatically if he can’t handle the hot corner.
You are right Preston. Bichette’s value would crater and he wasn’t a particularly good defender when I saw him. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for now, but you might find him on the 1B list next season.
If it was just one day, I’ll wait before reading too much into the Bichette attitude issue. If it’s a meme… Well, folks in every field of endeavor fail to reach their potential. (On an unrelated note, I hear that Ryan Anderson turned out to be an excellent chef.)
Given the fairly low upside of the guys on this list, I doubt that it would change his ranking, but I think you should stick with your own assessment of Olt. When I saw him in the Futures Game it reminded me of LaPorta’s AA season where he was being heavily hyped similar to Olt. I was shocked at how badly he was overpowered by the FB. Yes, those are the best prospects airing it out, but 90% of MLB relief pitchers throw that hard. It’s one thing for a guy to strike out a lot because he works deep counts and sits on the FB. When a guy strikes out as much as Olt because he’s swinging through the FB, that’s big problems.
Where would you rank Kaleb Cowart in the 16 and on list?
So…how bad is Aderlin Rodriguez’s fielding for him not to get a mention?
He wasn’t included because I didn’t see him this season. I saw Aderlin in 2010-2011.
I thought Cecchini had no more than 55 speed and he was just using good baseball instincts against inexperienced competition. Remember Jeremy Hermida’s stolen base totals?
You are right, but the average prospect follower will see 51 SB and think impact speed.
Who do you think has the higher upside as a hitter between Bichette Jr. and Rio Ruiz? They seem to be two of the more interesting guys offensively after you get past Olt and Davidson.
Liked your comments on Bichette. I live near the Kannapolis Intimidators and go there quite often. Made it a point to watch Bichette several times and was a little disappointed. Maybe I bought into the hype a little too much or just remembered how his dad played, but he never seemed to have solid at bats when I watched him.
As far as hustle on the field, he seemed to go after the ball with an aggressive attitude. I liked that part of his game.
As a Braves fan, I feel like we have a black hole at 3rd for prospects. Hard part will be not to judge their performances to Chipper. GREAT ARTICLE!
great work and read very much appreciated