Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 7/11/14

July 11, 2014

8:39	Nicholas Minnix: What’s up, everybody? I’ll be with you at the top of the hour, looking forward to answering some questions.

9:01	Nicholas Minnix: Rock n roll

9:01	Comment From Sizzle Not sure if you can answer during the chat, but here’s an interesting question: What’s the longest hitting streak during which the guy’s AVG was under .300?

9:01	Nicholas Minnix: You’re correct, haha, that’s something for Google or a greater power.

9:01	Comment From Matthew I traded Votto for Lawrie. Talk me off the ledge that it wasn’t a bad deal. Not keeping either of them and have Rizzo/VMart.

9:02	Nicholas Minnix: Not bad at all. Could turn out to be a good deal, you’re in good shape at 1B already it seems.

9:02	Comment From Shawn Best 3B ROS: Headley, Moustakas, or Reynolds? OBP format.

9:03	Nicholas Minnix: Oh I wish I knew. I own Headley in a league and have had a thing for Moustakas. I’m going to say Headley.

9:03	Comment From Ronnie I’ve got a full outfield and Jason Heyward on my bench in a 12-team redraft league. What would be a realistic trade target if I were to try to deal Heyward for a SP?

9:04	Nicholas Minnix: Tanaka? Just kidding. Too soon? Maybe someone like Alex Cobb at the high end. Maybe. Banking on regression.

9:04

Comment From MrThell
Regarding a replacement for Wins in fantasy: what about this: A starting pitcher is awarded 1 point for each inning pitched after the 5th, minus 1/3 point for each run allowed, e.g., 6 innings, 3 runs = perfectly average, no gain; 4 innings, 2 runs allowed = you hurt the team, negative .66; 8 innings, 2 runs allowed = Very good start, 2.33 points awarded; etc.

9:05	Nicholas Minnix: I saw your comment. It’s an interesting proposal. That is kind of a modified Game Score, with a scoring system kind of like PQS. It’s interesting, I’ll ponder it.

9:06	Comment From Guest Betts/Feldman or Alcantara (hitting leadoff today) v Alex Wood?

9:06	Nicholas Minnix: I’d go with the hot hitter Alcantara and not worry about the matchup.

9:07	Comment From Mike Any preference between Haren, Burnett, or Locke today as streamer options? 6×6 with QS. I can use two of them.

9:08	Nicholas Minnix: Not Burnett. Like the matchups for the other two more so, even tho Burnett is at home. Vs. WSH, yikes.

9:08	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her. What can we expect from Dozier the rest of the way? He’s slumping pretty hard right now.

9:08	Nicholas Minnix: There was virtually no way that he’d keep up the power pace. I think something in the neighborhood of .240, 4 or 5 HR is possible.

9:08	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her. Do you think J.D Martinez will end up being solid the rest of the year? I don’t expect him to keep up these numbers obviously.

9:09	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, I do think he could be solid ROS. Solid.

9:09	Comment From JB What should I do with Gerrit Cole right now? Only one DL spot covered by E5. Looking at Lincecum Ventura or Keuchel as potential replacements. Hold, or just let someone else deal with him?

9:10	Nicholas Minnix: Keuchel is virtually in the same boat. It depends on how much you need innings, also, or can’t afford to fall behind. Either of the other two is a good replacement in the now.

9:10	Comment From Joe Do I dare start Verlander at KC tomorrow? Gordon being out and Ibanez being in should lighten the load at least a little bit, right?

9:10	Nicholas Minnix: I’d give it a shot. Other than his showing vs. LAD, he’s been decent in his last few.

9:10	Comment From K Who do you prefer in a dynasty vacuum: Brandon Belt or Sonny Gray?

9:11	Nicholas Minnix: Belt. Just more often than not the hitter.

9:12	Comment From K Sonny Gray scare you as a 2 pitch guy who might be a bit overrated?

9:12	Nicholas Minnix: Not yet. He throws 2 or 3, depending on who’s doing the classifying. That might be a little telling as far as how difficult it is to identify some of his stuff.

9:13	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her. Was offered J.D Martinez for my Phil Hughes in a 12 team mixed dynasty. I have Brett Gardner at LF and my replacement would be Hutchison or Mchugh. Should I take the deal?

9:14

Nicholas Minnix: You know, even in a vacuum, I probably would. I’m more confident that a revived hitter will hold some value next year rather than a revived Hughes. And I liked Hughes this year. Plus, if you need the bat, for power, why not. The Gardner thing presents a problem, so, I assume you have some interest or you wouldn’t have asked, either to flip Gardner then or use one of them in a UTIL spot.

9:14	Comment From Neal Thoughts on Nelson, worth starting Saturday against Stl?

9:15	Nicholas Minnix: Sure, why not, start him. STL stinks. Ouch, sorry. OK, I think I’d throw him. The control really worries me, in the long term (like by EOS). For now, he has some advantage, I’d roll with him, let him rack up some K’s hopefully.

9:15	Comment From AL Could you see the Brewers being contenders for David Price? Would Tampa consider a package not including Nelson? Would something like Haniger, Delmonico, and Jungmann be enough?

9:16	Nicholas Minnix: No, they don’t have the pieces to give up and still compete.

9:17	Comment From K Are you a prospect guy? If so, how would you rank Raul Mondesi, Stephen Piscotty, and Jake Odorizzi in a dynasty fantasy league?

9:18	Nicholas Minnix: I’m not much of one, but I feel I can comment on that. Mondesi on upside alone is first, but I like Piscotty and think he’s much likelier not to bust, with decent fantasy appeal, maybe a 10-15 guy. Odorizzi is 3rd either way.

9:18

Comment From someGuy
Have to replace Y molina. Already have Santana to slide into C spot so position isnt such a big deal to me (although up to this point Santana hasnt been a very exciting option). Options I’m looking at are P Alvarez, Cron, Belt. 10 teamer, any other guys you would expect to see on waivers that I should be thinking about?

9:19	Nicholas Minnix: No, those are good options. Cron is a great bet, Belt also very intriguing. Of course, Alvarez could always go bonkers. The first two I mentioned are how I’d go.

9:19

Comment From Curious Jorge
Hi. I’m looking for a set-up guy/future closer to stash in a league that counts saves. But I missed out on Betances and McGee. How would you rank the following guys for ability to help in K’s and ERA now, and potential for saves in the near future: Giles, Watson, Familia, Ramirez, Ottavino, Chamberlain? Thanks a lot for your help.

9:20	Nicholas Minnix: Geeeez. Lotta guys. Honestly, how you have them is good. I’d move Ramirez ahead of Giles (I think the Phils will have too tough a time moving Papelbon) and slide Watson behind … Ottavino. I’d have Ottavino ahead of Familia.

9:21	Comment From Snuffy Does Alcantara get a long look, or only until his first slump? I’ve been looking forward to his arrival since last season, but it would suck if Barney got Wally Pipp’d for the birth of his child.

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: I still can’t help but think that it’s temp right now. Alcantara goes back down when Barney is activated, and then sometime after the break, Alcantara for good. But if Alcantara keeps hitting, the pressure will be on.

9:22	Comment From Snuffy Is Kevin Kiermaier worth picking up in a 12-team 5X5 dynasty league? My current OF is Puig, Calhoun, Ozuna, Corey Dickerson, and Leonys Martin, and the last two are playing-time concerns. Thanks a lot!

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: For ROS use, yes, if you have the room and someone to drop. I wouldn’t pick him up expecting him to be an option to keep.

9:22	Comment From Os Fan Is Machado back?

9:23	Nicholas Minnix: I’d say so.

9:23

Comment From Manny Being Manny
Someone asked Dave earlier this week for the first three stats he looks at on a hitter’s/pitcher’s FG page. He said he looks at BB%, K%, GB% for pitchers, BB%, K%, ISO for hitters. Would you agree? Are there other go-to stats for determining fantasy performance more than real-life performance? Thanks a lot.

9:25	Nicholas Minnix: Those are 3 great ones, for each. I look at K-BB% (2 in 1!). SwStr%, Velocities, pitch types are all things I look for. For hitters, ISO I love. Contact rate and some other plate discipline stuff, batted ball rates.

9:25	Comment From Bobert Is Alex Meyer part of the Twins’ rotation in the second half, or have his control issues pushed his ETA back to 2015?

9:26	Nicholas Minnix: At some point I think he almost has to be. Definitely I think in September, if it isn’t sooner. They sent him to the AFL, have to think they want to give him a taste.

9:26	Comment From Mick Ninnix What stats/splits/matchups should I look at when putting together a weekly starting rotation? Thanks.

9:27	Nicholas Minnix: Opponents vs. handedness, how each pitcher and opponent performs on the road. But generally go with your best guys, this is for tiebreakers and stuff. Don’t overthink it.

9:27	Comment From ALwinner Cy Young down to Felix and Sale now right?

9:27	Nicholas Minnix: And Tanaka. Oh! Damn, sorry. So disappointing. I think he should just have the surgery so that he can get back sooner.

9:28	Comment From Don What do you think of this deal in a dynasty pts league? I get Cano, Longoria, Braun and Bruce for Altuve, Machado, Trout and Archie Bradley. I hate giving up Trout and all of the potential, but that is too much talent to pass up, right?

9:29	Nicholas Minnix: Well, you’re giving up the best player in the deal. Your roster would be spread out, but you’d be taking on three beginning to show signs of age players and a fourth who’s in his peak. I think I’d just keep Trout. I like Machado a bit more than Eno, too.

9:29	Comment From Nacho Grande Thanks for your time. Any under-the-radar OF prospects at AA or AAA that have really raised their stock so far?

9:31	Nicholas Minnix: I get a question like this sometimes. No one comes to mind, but it’s not my forte. I’m sure there are plenty. Sorry, wish I could say more. Piscotty is I think a good example of a guy who wasn’t high on overall lists whom I like and whose profile has been raised a bit, I think.

9:31	Comment From Jolly Roger Thoughts on Arenado ROS? I couldn’t wait until he got healthy, but so far he’s been a bummer at the plate.

9:32	Nicholas Minnix: Well he was going to have some trouble coming back from that injury and picking up where he left off. Just picking up where he left off. I think ZIPs does it well: basically, double what he’s done, from here forward.

9:33	Comment From chris Could you please rank these pitch to contact SPs ROS for roto? H. Alvarez, Morton, Colon, Locke, Leake Thanks, Nicholas!

9:33	Nicholas Minnix: Kind of a crapshoot. They’re all solid. Alvarez, Colon, Locke, Morton, Leake. Just kind of my preference.

9:33	Comment From Mick Ninnix Is Jesse Hahn for real? Thanks.

9:35	Nicholas Minnix: Awesome name. I think so. Nice stuff. I’d be concerned about some give back in his #s here and there and long-term health. Good pitcher, if that’s what you’re asking, real talent.

9:35	Comment From kris Can I go ahead and drop Tanaka? Already have 6 keepable players ( max of 6) and I’d rather not have another dead spot on my roster… Even if he is out the minimum of 6 weeks, how valuable will that last 1.5 months be?

9:36

Nicholas Minnix: OK, tricky ?. How long can you keep them? You could always lose another of your keepable players. If you can use the roster spot to take a shot on another good player, you need to make a run this year, etc., then go for it. Get the W. If you can keep Tanaka into 2016, though, that might be all that’d convince me. Or 2015 in a deep league.

9:37	Comment From Dan Can you please rank the following pitchers for ROS. Verlander, Fister, Minor, Cobb, Wood and Lackey i’m looking to drop 1 or 2 to make room on my roster for more hitters.

9:39	Nicholas Minnix: Geez. I like them all ROS, for the most part. Lackey, Wood, Cobb, Verlander, Minor, Fister. … Really, I would prefer to trade the best of them or something. Not an easy choice.

9:39	Comment From AL What are your thoughts on Billy Hamilton? Do you think that his ISO of 145 is sustainable? Do you see his bb/k% improving or continuing to hurt his obp?

9:41	Nicholas Minnix: Not really, on ISO. BB/K staying about the same, maybe slight improvement, but could get worse.

9:41	Comment From J.J. Who is the better fantasy 3B going forward, Rendon or Arenado? As always, thanks for your advice.

9:41	Nicholas Minnix: Rendon

9:41	Comment From LeBaseballJames Any thoughts on Rubby De La Rosas’ success this season? What do you think he can eventually be, a number 2-3 starter?

9:41	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, think he can be that, for sure. ROS, some bumps, like he’s had already, but the talent is there to be what you say.

9:41	Comment From Jobin Is Salvador Perez being underrated? He seems to be hitting at a level comparable to some of the top catchers in the league and has the pedigree to support the results. I know he’s starting in the All-Star game, but nobody seems to be talking about him.

9:42	Nicholas Minnix: Jobin is talking about him. I’m not sure what you mean, otherwise, we’ve had somewhat similar questions. He’s quite good in a lot of areas, not spectacular in any, except ability to make contact and defensively. Which are two good areas in which to be that. Very good catcher.

9:43	Comment From Brad Hey Nick: I’m in quasi-keeper league, and have a keeper question that deals with 2015 only. Would you rather have wil myers or tyjuan walker next year? I know you prefer bats but this is for one year only and myers has some bad wrists? Thanks.

9:45

Nicholas Minnix: Good question. I think Myers still, here’s why: Myers has a stress fracture, I don’t think we have to be overly concerned about a really long-term power outage. Like the talent still, of course. And, Walker has had his own health concerns, which may be just as likely to pop up again, if not more so. I think the longer you can wait to decide, the better off you’ll be.

9:46	Comment From Souzas Marching Band Do you think Steven Souza has a place in the Nats’ OF next year, and what does his floor/ceiling look like? Thanks!

9:46	Nicholas Minnix: Surely, he could have one, by midseason. Low BA, likely, maybe a 15-15, 20-15 guy. This is my amateur estimation.

9:47	Nicholas Minnix: I think he’s in the conversation, definitely.

9:47	Comment From chris Do you think Duffy, C. Martinez, Hahn, Gausman and Stroman will be worthy 3-4 type SPs ROS? Any of them stick out positively or negatively?

9:48

Nicholas Minnix: Martinez has the lowest ceiling of them, ROS, I think. Yes, any of them could be that, but good bit of risk in each of them. I like Duffy, perhaps most, and Gausman. Do like Stroman and Hahn, too, hard to know where to slot them. I will put Hahn ahead of Gausman because of the good environmental factors. Slight.

9:50	Comment From Balzac I missed out on Odor, Betts, and Alcantara. Any other close-to-MLB 2B prospects worth owning in a 12-team dynasty league?

9:50	Nicholas Minnix: I don’t think so. Maybe Taylor Lindsay, Jose Ramirez. Not great upside there, IMO.

9:50	Comment From Bigums I’ll tell you who, that damn Sasquatch.

9:50	Nicholas Minnix: Bingo!

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: Hey folks, I’m at 9:02. Sorry, I feel like I’m going faster than I must be. Or you ask quickly! I hope to get to you. Will go until about midway past the next hour.

9:51	Comment From chris Who do you like more for roto ROS, Wong or Gennett?

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: Wong

9:51

Comment From Jon
Hey man, I’m really enjoying S&B with you and Eno. One suggestion might be to start with hitters every other day. Seems like you always have a lot to say on pitchers (and a lot of great stuff!) but run out of time. Maybe you’re both more comfortable talking about pitchers and that’s cool, too. Keep up the good work!

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: Thanks! And that’s a good suggestion. Thanks!

9:51	Comment From Guest How will the Cubs lineup look in 2 years defensively?

9:52	Nicholas Minnix: Haha, well. I’d take it straight to Vegas if I knew. I’d say Alcantara at 2B and Russell at SS. Bryant … probably in LF, Baez at 3B? Beyond that, I’m out of guesses. Besides Rizzo at 1B, of course.

9:53	Nicholas Minnix: Soler in RF, there!

9:53	Comment From BRR Thanks for chatting Nick. My pitching staff is beaten up by injuries. Is Cobb a good value buy right now in a redraft league? Seems like his peripherals indicate a good second half coming and it wouldn’t appear as if an innings limit is a concern.

9:53	Nicholas Minnix: I believe so. I’d try to get him.

9:53	Comment From Skeletor Is Freddie Freeman’s so-so production this year something to be worried about, or just a product of the lineup around him? Thanks for your thoughts.

9:53	Nicholas Minnix: More so the lineup. He’s hitting quite well. Look who hits in front of him usually.

9:56	Comment From Jay Question about two prospects. Jake Lamb seems to have a lot of doubters but has put up good numbers. Is he a future MLB regular or better? Also, Christian Walker has been hitting the cover off the ball. Can his bat play at 1b?

9:59

Nicholas Minnix: Before I looked, I surmised that he was difficult to cast as a regular. I think I see some interesting stuff in his, hits the ball hard, has a little swing and miss but still has BA potential, I think he can be a regular, yes. Lamb that is. Walker, IDK much about, but I’m not initially impressed, based on #s alone.

9:59	Comment From Owen S. I think Trout’s WAR yesterday was at 5.4. How’d it go down to 5.3 after a 4-5 night with a HR? I didn’t watch the game, so maybe i missed something. Is there any way to look at a game log detailing a player’s day-to-day WAR changes? Thanks Nicholas!

9:59	Nicholas Minnix: Honestly, I do not know, but I will ask someone who might and see if we can answer that down the road.