Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 7/3/14

July 3, 2014

8:45	Nicholas Minnix: Hey folks! I’m filling in for Eno, today, and I won’t be chatting tomorrow, FYI. I’ll be with you at the top of the hour!

8:54	Comment From J Eno: I think our banter is getting better.

8:54	Comment From J Nick: I agree.

8:59	Nicholas Minnix: I’m asking for a little of your patience, as well. I’m surely not as quick (or as knowledgeable for that matter) as Eno! But I’ll do my best.

8:59	Nicholas Minnix: Rock. And. Roll.

8:59	Comment From AL Pitching Coach Top 3 current AL closers that could be moved at the deadline?

8:59	Nicholas Minnix: Soria and Uehara are the only two I’m aware of who are distinct possibilities.

8:59	Comment From Ruppert Please rank Alex Cobb, Mike Minor and James Shields ROS

8:59	Nicholas Minnix: The order you have them is mine.

9:00	Comment From Tony G. Given that they’re both SS-eligible and easily two of the most discussed players in Fangraphs chat rooms, I can’t resist: ROS – Brad Miller vs. Mookie Betts?

9:00	Nicholas Minnix: Haha. Betts.

9:00	Comment From Guest Wong or Gennett ROS?

9:00	Nicholas Minnix: Oy. I like Wong just a tad more.

9:00	Comment From Tom What do you do with Ben Zobrist?

9:00	Nicholas Minnix: It depends on so much. If you want draft-day value in a trade, then you will probably be disappointed.

9:00	Comment From Texas Dolly Think Jason Grilli eventually takes over as closer for the Angels?

9:02

Nicholas Minnix: It’s POSSIBLE. Previous health concerns and some things to fix suggest that it’s not highly probable. But the Halos wouldn’t mind seeing him emerge so that they didn’t have to trade for a CL. Which I could see them doing and paying for an established one, unlike many other clubs are willing to do, smartly.

9:02

Comment From Cory
Nick, I’m thinking its time to throw in the towel on Beltran. Keeper league and I can’t (and won’t) keep him for next year. If I’m looking for a successful hitter (don’t care about power or speed or position), who would you look at JD Martinez, James Jones, Chris Johnson, DJ LeMahieu, or Josh Harrison?

9:03	Nicholas Minnix: I can see it RE: Beltran. Martinez is intriguing, helps now. Jones otherwise because I know he can contribute heavily in SB – but, none of those stand out.

9:05	Comment From THE average sports fan If Padres are able to trade Street and Benoit. Who gets the saves?

9:05	Nicholas Minnix: A) If they do deal both, then I’ll be shocked. B) Thayer, Patton … it doesn’t look great. Jason Lane?

9:05	Comment From Kevin Gausman What will the Orioles do with me for the rest of the season?

9:06	Nicholas Minnix: You’ll be in the rotation permanently after the ASB, if not sooner, if they want to win.

9:06	Comment From Brandon McCarthy What’s my deal? 5.11 ERA, but a 2.92 xFIP – That’s crazy. Also, where do you expect me to move to before the trade deadline?

9:07

Nicholas Minnix: Hard to say RE: trades. We’ve talked about McCarthy on the pod a few times, basically he has a couple of pitches that result in great batted-ball stuff and K’s, good control, but a couple of the pitches look similar, and if he makes mistakes or lacks command, he gets hit. But he should improve on 5.11 at least.

9:08	Comment From Snuffy Just picked up D.J. Peterson, but then Maikel Franco became available shortly thereafter. I know Peterson probably won’t stick at 3B (hopefully, he’s the fix for the Mariners’ 1B mess soon), but who do you think has the brighter fantasy future? Thanks for your advice.

9:08	Nicholas Minnix: Franco, just a tad more.

9:08

Comment From Snuffy
Missed out on McGee and Betances in my league’s most recent draft. Do you think Tony Watson is the Pirates’ closer next year? Any other young eighth-inning types with closer potential and the stuff to help a little in a league that counts saves right away? Thanks for your advice.

9:09	Nicholas Minnix: Saves right away? Not sure I follow. There are plenty, but these things are difficult to predict because it’s not based solely on performance, obviously. I like the guy who got the SV for TB last night, Brad Boxberger, quite a bit.

9:10

Comment From Snuffy
Matt Carpenter was great at 2B for me last year in a 12-team 5X5 dynasty league. This year at 3B, not so much. I’d like to unload him, but the offers seem low. Should I deal him for a high pick in one of our monthly FA drafts (which, for context, have yielded Sean Doolittle, Derek Norris, Alex Wood, and Jesse Hahn in the first round so far), or hold in the hopes that his numbers start to improve? Thanks for your advice.

9:11	Nicholas Minnix: I don’t see anything wrong with his #s, not much different from last season’s. Your’e right, they play worse at 3B, if you went in with him as your plan at the position, then you were asking too much. If you need to build for the future, then the pick sounds like the way to go.

9:11	Comment From Sal Hey Nick, 14 team league QS instead of Ws. Growing tired of Peralta and Bauer are either or both of them worth dropping for any of C. Martinez, Holland, Gee, J. Kelly, Liriano or Salazar?

9:12	Nicholas Minnix: I don’t view any of those guys as having a better chance to get QS, really. Or, there’s no rush, with Holland or Gee (just guessing, hard to say in your league). Holland or Gee may be a better bet for QS eventually. Will take some time.

9:12	Comment From Kendal How do you move older guys such as Ellsbury, Wright and Beltre for younger guys in a roto dynasty league?

9:13	Nicholas Minnix: You ask people what they want to give you for them. The contenders this year will come out of the woodwork.

9:14	Comment From Jolly Roger I picked up David Dahl at the beginning of the year, as all of the more highly touted OF prospects were taken. I’ve been happy with what I see in the box scores so far. Any thoughts on his future (ETA, floor/ceiling, etc.)? Thanks!

9:15	Nicholas Minnix: Pretty nice ceiling, it seems, maybe a 20-20 type? I’m not too familiar with him, but I like what seems to be a combination of good control of the strike zone and athleticism.

9:15	Comment From Jolly Roger Do you think Josh Rutledge is doing enough to take over at 2B in the near future? Thanks!

9:15	Nicholas Minnix: No. COL likes LaMehieu’s D too much. But it’d be nice to see Rutledge somewhere regularly.

9:15	Comment From Jolly Roger Which two would you rather have in the long term: Gausman, Meyer, Crick, Zimmer, Wisler. Thanks!

9:17	Nicholas Minnix: Geez. All, so one of those darts would hit the bullseye. I really like Zimmer. Wisler and Meyer right behind him.

9:18	Comment From Jolly Roger Any thoughts on Adam Duvall? He’s mashed at AAA, but his first week (SSS I know) was less than impressive. Is he a AAAA guy, or a possible Panda replacement? Thanks!

9:19	Nicholas Minnix: It’s possible that he’s a replacement, sure. My thought is that he’s better than a AAAA player but not by much. He’s platoon material maybe. Next spring will be interesting.

9:19	Comment From Tom Jones Hi Nicholas. Really enjoying your work since you joined Fangraphs. Is Shin-Soo Choo just having a better week, or are we seeing the initial signs of him turning it around?

9:20	Nicholas Minnix: Thank you, that’s really nice. I think he’ll continue to turn it around a bit, but #s from last year are probably asking too much.

9:20	Comment From Alex Gordon Am I a better player in real life than in fantasy?

9:21	Nicholas Minnix: Haha, probably. But not by much. Gordon’s #s are – perhaps surprisingly, based on your ? – at the end of a year really quite valuable.

9:21	Comment From Milhouse Looking for power/rbi from a MI spot. Currently running Howie Kendrick out there. Shoot for Utley, JRoll, Desmond? Pretty good on OBP. thanks!

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: Desmond or Utley appears to be your best bet then. Depends on what you mean shoot for. Kendrick suffices if you can make up the difference creatively elsewhere.

9:22	Comment From DD Any SP that struggled in the 1st half that you see having a strong/great 2nd half?

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: Cobb!

9:22	Comment From Benito Santiago Who would you rather have as your Catcher in an AL-only league: Yan Gomes or Derek Norris?

9:22	Nicholas Minnix: ROS, maybe a wash, but I’d take Norris, and dynasty, Norris unquestionably.

9:23	Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores I am trading for many Machado in a Dynasty league.

9:23	Nicholas Minnix: Congrats!

9:23	Comment From Chris Hi Nick. Is it time to drop Segura in favor of Miller at SS?

9:23	Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t. Segura’s tools provide him with greater upside. Depends on your league, that’s my answer in a vacuum.

9:23	Comment From Chris Hi Nick. Please rank with long-term value foremost in mind: Hahn, Alex Meyer, Shelby Miller, Pomeranz, Salazar, Smyly, Wood.

9:25	Nicholas Minnix: Geez. Wood, Hahn, Pomeranz, Smyly, Salazar, Miller, Meyer? Not sure what to say there, they’re all intriguing for one reason or another. These rankings of players w/o context and such are really difficult even with context. Pitchers fail.

9:25	Comment From Chris Hi Nick. Does Piscotty have a place in the Cardinals OF next year? Do you think his power is still developing, or is what we see what we’re going to get?

9:27	Nicholas Minnix: Sure he does. They like him. I like him. I think what you see is about it, in terms of power, maybe he’s a 15-HR guy, 20 in career year possible.

9:27	Comment From Miketron Does Marcus Stroman’s additional work in the Fall League last year have any effect on his innings cap this year?

9:27	Nicholas Minnix: No generally that’s to build up a pitcher prior to this season. If anything it helps him this year.

9:27	Comment From Daniel B Is Syndergaard keepable in a 12 team 15 player dynasty format? I’m in contention, and the fact that he may not help this year at all + general nerves about SP prospects makes me think the roster spot more valuable

9:28	Nicholas Minnix: Keeper questions w/o keeper limits are tough. If you can’t keep a lot of guys, then no, he’s not.

9:28	Nicholas Minnix: 15 players per team? Definitely not.

9:28

Comment From Don
Thanks for filling in! I am in a Dynasty league and am in contention for this year. I have been offered Reyes, Hamels and Cuddyer for Polanco and Cashner. My current SS is Xander, so Reyes will help unless he gets hurt. Hamels will make his way into rotation over Ian Kennedy. Thoughts?

9:29	Nicholas Minnix: Dynasty, that’s rough to deal Polanco, but you want to win. I think it’s a solid deal. Giving up Cashner – great talent, great pitcher – isn’t a big deal to me, I suspect that health will never be fully on his side.

9:29	Comment From Bobert Thanks for your time, Nick. Does Derek Norris ever take over as the A’s full-time C?

9:31	Nicholas Minnix: Yes, if Jaso is expendable heading into his final arbitration year. Almost full-time. Vogt could be re-signed. I think OAK is a little conscious of the way they handle catchers. But they value his bat, they must. I’d be happy with him going forward, I love his skills.

9:31	Comment From Bobert Thanks for your time, Nick. Any under-the-radar position prospects that have stood out to you so far as guys who will be jumping up the prospect lists by the end of the year?

9:35	Nicholas Minnix: Thanks to you for joining. This isn’t my area of expertise, so I can’t say with confidence. I think Rougned Odor’s MLB exposure will be valuable in the long term, although by then he might not be considered a prospect because of his service time.

9:35	Comment From Humphrey Bogaerts Is my nephew Xander droppable in a non-keeper league?

9:35	Nicholas Minnix: LOL. It depends on whom you get – if better is available, then yes.

9:35	Comment From THE average sports fan Is the 2014 version of Joey Votto what should be expected going forward?

9:36	Nicholas Minnix: Kind of. It depends on whether 85% health is a regular part of the profile now. He can be better, but he may continue at this rate and slowly get worse.

9:36	Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores I am trading for Manny Machado in a dynasty league. The other guy is requesting either Gausman and Betances or Ventura and Tony Watson. Which duo do i give up?

9:37	Nicholas Minnix: The latter – I like Watson, but I don’t believe that he’ll close. Ventura long-term health concerns me more, although his ceiling is much greater than Gausman’s, I believe.

9:37	Comment From Clownfeet Matt Carpenter and Leonys Martin for Michael Brantley, who says no? How about the same pair for Heyward?

9:38	Nicholas Minnix: I’d love to give up Heyward for that duo. I’d rather keep the duo for Brantley – good player, just not great, and I always liked him, but this year everyone likes him more – I get it, his #s are really good.

9:38	Comment From Scott Thoughts on Shields ROS? 12 team roto dynasty. Need SB’s. Could get Marte for him. In 3rd right now. Is he enough of a stolen base guy, or should I try to get Gordon. Could possibly get both but would have to give up a lot of SP. Probably Bauer and Stroman too. Thanks.

9:39	Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t be afraid to deal Shields for Marte. You know how far back you are in SB and what you need to do to make a move, I can’t say. I’d feel more comfortable acquiring Marte, perhaps strangely, but Gordon has more potential to move you up.

9:39	Comment From B Best division in baseball….go!

9:40	Nicholas Minnix: NL Central? Right now.

9:40

Comment From Joe
U guys mentioned on the podcast: Putnam, Guerra, and Petricka. I agree about skilz of Guerra>Petricka. However, Petricka got a traditional save Fri (9th inning) and then closed out a 4-run lead on Sunday. Putnam had a 1.1 inning save in between. Also, last night he was used in the 8th. Doesn’t usage pattern suggest Petricka>Putnam??

9:41	Nicholas Minnix: It’s a great point, and a good possibility. I like Putnam a bit more just because he shouldn’t hurt me, but Petricka may be better bet for SV.

9:41	Comment From Clownfeet What is holding back the Cubs from calling up Alcantara? His numbers look like he’s ready. Do they like Barney that much, or are they waiting to bring a bunch of their prospects up at the same time?

9:42	Nicholas Minnix: There’s no purpose, really. They’re not contending, so they don’t want to start his clock.

9:42	Comment From Ernie Machado or Arenado ROS?

9:42	Nicholas Minnix: Hmmm. Machado, by a hair.

9:42	Comment From Scott Think Danny Salazar comes up and has similar success like last year?

9:42	Nicholas Minnix: I do think it’s a good possibility. He’s showing signs of turning it around in the minors.

9:43	Comment From Jeff Luhnow Just sent out a trade offer of Scott Feldman for Bryce Harper think I’ll get a bite, or am I reaching?

9:43	Nicholas Minnix: Done!

9:43	Comment From Finding Forrester So do you go by Nicholas or Nick or what?

9:43	Nicholas Minnix: Either is fine, people seem to prefer to use Nick because they’re syllable-lazy, what can you do? 😀

9:43	Comment From Ernie Is Alcides Escobar going to continue his first half production over the second half of the season?

9:43	Nicholas Minnix: Unlikely

9:43	Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores Where will Schoop rank among fantasy 2B next season. Worth holding onto in a dynasty league?

9:44	Nicholas Minnix: Hard to say. Mixed league, low-end MI with upside, nothing specific I can say now. Worth holding? Who else would you get or hold if not?

9:44	Comment From Jeff What do you do with Michael Pineda in a dynasty league? Have a DL spot for him now, but is he worth holding onto at the end of the year? QS league with 40-man rosters and keep 35 each year.

9:45	Nicholas Minnix: If you can keep that many, I suppose. I don’t see him ever being healthy for long. If you have something more reliable and even with less upside, I’d consider it. Not for any old scrub, but someone who has a good chance to contribute. Or more upside.

9:45	Comment From Shawn James Shields- Hold or sell while we still can?

9:46	Nicholas Minnix: Depends on the offers. It should even out, but in the long run, it won’t get much better and will tail off.

9:47	Comment From E5 If you could compare Alex Meyer’s future ceiling with a current/past pitcher, who would it be?

9:47	Nicholas Minnix: Ceiling is the same now as in the future. I can’t think of a comp for him, off-hand. The ceiling is really high, isn’t that good?

9:48	Comment From Mark Hi, Nick! I was offered his Lohse, Polanco and Yadier for my Mesoraco and Shields. I don’t like Shields at all right now, but am I getting enough in return if I take it?

9:49	Nicholas Minnix: ROS? Redrafter? Debatable. I’d like to take my chances with it. Keeper/dynasty? Definitely, I’d do that deal.

9:49	Comment From Vanilla Ice Have we reached the point where it’ll take a miracle to get Buxton to the Majors before 2016?

9:49	Nicholas Minnix: Hahaha – um, miracle, not quite, but close to it. Sept. 2015 call-up?

9:49	Comment From Jonathan Richman You deserve to have tomorrow off, just like the rest of us.

9:50	Nicholas Minnix: Thanks!

9:50	Comment From Shawn Better days ahead for Chris Davis?

9:50	Nicholas Minnix: Surely. He’s mixed in some better days, earlier this season. There’ll be more.

9:50	Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores Thoughts on Jeff Locke the ROS?

9:51	Nicholas Minnix: I like him, think he’s better prepared to handle adjustments and the pending corrections this time around because of his pitch mix. Still going to be some corrections, tho. I like him, he could play for a while in mixed leagues, like he did last year. I own him in one.

9:51	Comment From Not so opti-mets-tic Will enough teams be interested in Daniel Murphy/Bartolo Colon that the Mets get good players in return? What’s the market like for those two?

9:52	Nicholas Minnix: Good players? Hmmm. In a package, I suppose. Neither nets a sure everyday player or mid-rotation starter on his own, tho.

9:53	Comment From Finding Forrester Hey Nicholas/Nick, Who should I give up for Marte in a 10 Team H2H? I need steals! Gio, Gray, Kluber, Cobb, AWood, Keuchel, or Arrieta?

9:53	Nicholas Minnix: Me, I’d probably deal Arrieta. And I really like the guy. Just would try to play the %s, regression.

9:54

Comment From Louis
Aaron Sanchez is a guy most of the dynasty podcasts haven’t really touched on. He’s a prospect I’ve never understood and I still don’t understand the hype behind. I can’t get behind a guy with a career 5 BB/9. TOR seems to love him and have him fast-tracked. How do you feel about him and what league parameters (size/total # of keepers) do you feel he’s worth owning in?

9:56

Nicholas Minnix: I do like him, but I think your worries are legit. He was considered a level above Stroman in terms of talent, but Stroman is considerably more polished. If I could trade him while people loved him, I’d strongly consider it. But I like him, he has the TOOLS to improve that control, I think. Say 15-team mixed league, no salaries, maybe 15-25 keepers year to year? Hard to say. My goal would be to trade him, so I would hope to avoid that decision.

9:56	Comment From MJ How valuable will Arismendy Alcantara be in the bigs this year assuming a call up is soon?

9:57	Nicholas Minnix: Maybe he gets a call after the break. Maybe it’s not until September. He should be owned when it happens, regardless, in most leagues.

9:57	Comment From Guest who is closing in san diego next month? and do either benoit or street get moved someplace where they close?

9:58	Nicholas Minnix: Street is closing. And if one of them is moved, then I’d say probably. But it’s impossible to say, I think they won’t be moved.

9:59	Comment From Guest Keeper league question. Seager or Arenado? Currently in 1st so want to make a run at it. 12 team h2h and no salaries or draft picks involved with the keepers.

9:59	Nicholas Minnix: What do you need? I like Seager more.

9:59	Nicholas Minnix: Guys, I’m at the 9:00 ?s now. All the ?s are great early, just bear with me.