| 8:02 |
 Ariel Cohen: I’ll be chatting along with David Laurila and Eric Longenhagen.
|
| 8:03 |
Ariel Cohen: Braves Lineup 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF 2. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B 3. Marcell Ozuna (R) DH 4. Travis d’Arnaud (R) C 5. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B 6. Dansby Swanson (R) SS 7. Austin Riley (R) 3B 8. Nick Markakis (L) LF 9. Cristian Pache (R) CF Ian Anderson (R) P
|
| 8:03 |
Ariel Cohen: Dodgers Lineup 1. Mookie Betts (R) RF 2. Corey Seager (L) SS 3. Justin Turner (R) 3B 4. Max Muncy (L) 1B 5. Will Smith (R) C 6. Cody Bellinger (L) CF 7. AJ Pollock (R) LF 8. Joc Pederson (L) DH 9. Chris Taylor (R) 2B Dustin May (R) P
|
| 8:05 |
Zon: Thanks for hosting this chat.
|
| 8:05 |
Ariel Cohen: Its Game 7! Excited to be here!
|
| 8:05 |
 David Laurila: Greetings baseball fans. I just watched my favorite football team crap the bed against a team from Tampa. Sports fans in that particular city are having a good fall.
|
| 8:06 |
Ariel Cohen: Good evening David!
|
| 8:07 |
Ariel Cohen:
Who’ve you got?
Dodgers (64.2% | 36 votes)
Braves (35.7% | 20 votes)
Total Votes: 56
|
| 8:07 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Yoooo what’s up, chat?
|
| 8:07 |
David Laurila: Atlantans (is that a word) are looking a great day/night if the Braves can follow the Falcon’s lead.
|
| 8:07 |
Ariel Cohen: Hey Eric!
|
| 8:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Congrats to the Tampa Bay Rays, who punched their ticket to the World Series last night. They at one point held a 3-0 series advantage.
|
| 8:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Here are all of the MLB teams that have blown 3-0 series leads:
Yankees
End of List
|
| 8:08 |
Craig: Next 4 years: Betts or Acuña Jr.?
|
| 8:08 |
David Laurila: Betts, but I’d gladly take either.
|
| 8:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Betts for me.
|
| 8:09 |
Eric A Longenhagen:
Next 4 years: Betts or Acuña Jr.?
Betts (67.2% | 41 votes)
Acuña (32.7% | 20 votes)
Total Votes: 61
|
| 8:09 |
Ariel Cohen: Over the next 2 seasons, ZiPS has both as having the same projected WAR.
|
| 8:09 |
baycommuter: What’s worth more, Dodgers’ momentum or Braves having their pitching staff in better shape?
|
| 8:10 |
David Laurila: Pitching trumps momentum.
|
| 8:10 |
Ariel Cohen: Pitching worth more. The Astros has all of the momentum going into last night, and Tampa won out …
|
| 8:11 |
Dodger Fan: Next 4 years: Buehler or Fried? (thanks for the idea, Craig)
|
| 8:11 |
Ariel Cohen: Buehler
|
| 8:11 |
David Laurila: As Earl Weaver said, momentum is only as good as tomorrow’s starting pitcher. In tonight’s case, it’s tonight’s pitching staff.
|
| 8:11 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Risk for LAD is that one of their relievers melts down today. You’re hoping no whammies five+ times. If Anderson shoves for ATL, they’re in great shape.
|
| 8:12 |
Zon: Thanks for hosting, guys.
|
| 8:12 |
Ariel Cohen: To me, the length of Anderson’s start will largely determine the outcome of the game.
|
| 8:13 |
Ariel Cohen: As for managers – Brian Snitker’s all-time playoff coaching record sits at 11-9. Dave Roberts’s is better at 33-25. Both coaches are 8-3 in this current postseason.
|
| 8:13 |
Ian Anderson’s Sleepy Eyes: Next 4 years: Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus?
|
| 8:13 |
David Laurila: You know the answer to that question.
|
| 8:14 |
Eric A Longenhagen: cmon, now
|
| 8:14 |
Ryan: How many innings does each starter pitch tonight?
|
| 8:14 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m guessing two from May, six from Anderson
|
| 8:15 |
Ariel Cohen: I’ll go 3 for May, 5 for Anderson.
|
| 8:16 |
Cream: Doesn’t Anderson’s success determine the length of his outing though?
|
| 8:16 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I see the questions regarding instructs in the queue. I’m stashing them if the game has spots where it’s dragging.
|
| 8:16 |
Ariel Cohen: Yes, of course.
|
| 8:17 |
Ariel Cohen: 4 pitch walk never great to start an inning.
|
| 8:17 |
Eric A Longenhagen: May is amped. 100 to start
|
| 8:18 |
S: If Dodgers lose, does Dave Roberts get fired?
|
| 8:18 |
David Laurila: Unlikely.
|
| 8:18 |
Ariel Cohen: Freddie Freeman had the lowest Soft% among Braves regulars this season at 9.6%.
|
| 8:19 |
Eric A Longenhagen: This is why I think two innings only from May: slider feel was not great in last outing (not off to a great start right now), overthrowing fastball. I think he can bully guys with the heater but he’s gonna throw a lot of pitches if he’s slow to gain feel for location.
|
| 8:19 |
Ariel Cohen: Tyler Flowers had a 5.7% Soft% contact rate.
|
| 8:19 |
Ariel Cohen: May: 8 pitches, 0 Strikes so far.
|
| 8:19 |
Guest: How many consecutive walks until you get someone warming in the pen?
|
| 8:19 |
Ariel Cohen: Three.
|
| 8:19 |
David Laurila: Mr. May might be inviting mayhem.
|
| 8:20 |
Craig: It amazes me that these guys can maintain velo from outing to outing on such short rest
|
| 8:21 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I wonder if the length of the season has allowed for it more than in a usual year of if this is the new October normal.
|
| 8:21 |
Ariel Cohen: Travis d’Arnaud now batting – Led the Braves in average Exit Velocity this season among qualified players at 93.4.
|
| 8:22 |
Eric A Longenhagen: May hung a slider to Ozuna, 1-0 Braves on hit through 5/6 hole
|
| 8:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Eric … with the short season, will pitching deep into the playoffs give them an edge for 2021? If so, how much?
|
| 8:23 |
Guest: Did d’Arnaud do anything in particular to get so much better since leaving the Mets?
|
| 8:24 |
Ariel Cohen: Batting stance I know. Large improvement for him, and his hard hit contact jumped dramatically.
|
| 8:24 |
Guest: In David’s Sunday column Snitker made a comment that Fried could have thrown 200 pitches last night and that 140 pitches should be his number. That seems to indicate that Snitker isn’t really into pulling starters early. If that is the case, how much pressure is he getting from the front office to do just that?
|
| 8:25 |
David Laurila: Snitker has a deep bullpen, which certainly plays a role in his decisions.
|
| 8:25 |
Ariel Cohen: d’Arnaud was one of the Braves underrated signings in the offseason.
|
| 8:26 |
kevinthecomic: Nice recovery by May
|
| 8:27 |
Ariel Cohen: May turned around his night quickly.
|
| 8:27 |
Eric A Longenhagen: A very convenient 6-4-3, then May gets Albies with fastballs.
|
| 8:27 |
Zon: How have teams scouted one another since the lockdown> Do they have scouts at the games or do they just watch video like everyone else? Or is there something else I’m missing?
|
| 8:27 |
Ariel Cohen: Double plays are a pitchers best friend …
|
| 8:27 |
David Laurila: 140 pitches is too many, yes. That said, Luis Tiant threw 163 in World Series Game 1 in 1975.
|
| 8:28 |
Jess: So if the Dodgers win, then NLCS mvp is easily Seager – who would you say would get it for the Braves?
|
| 8:28 |
Ariel Cohen: Freeman ?
|
| 8:29 |
Eric A Longenhagen: During the summer, the teams were given the option of opting into data and video sharing with one another. No scouts at the alt sites. For instructs, teams were allowed to opt in or out of scouting/having their camp scouted. Most opted in. Some teams facility isn’t suited for scouts (Giants)
|
| 8:29 |
Guest: Would the Rays rather see this become a bullpen game for both teams, or would they prefer their eventual opponent burn a starter tonight?
|
| 8:29 |
David Laurila: I wonder how many Rays are watching, and with what level of intent.
|
| 8:29 |
Ariel Cohen: The Rays would prefer a larger quantity of pitchers used, I would imagine.
|
| 8:30 |
Ariel Cohen: Corey Seager up, leads the Dodgers this postseason with 6 HR, 15 RBI and 36 total bases. Batting .333 in the 2020 playoffs thus far.
|
| 8:31 |
Ariel Cohen: * Dodgers
|
| 8:31 |
David Laurila: Markus Lynn Betts is good at baseball.
|
| 8:31 |
Ariel Cohen: Seager also lead the Dodgers this regular season in average exit velocity at 93.2
|
| 8:32 |
Ariel Cohen: 15.8% Barrel rate.
|
| 8:32 |
Jess: so do you think starting May was a case of Roberts thinking may was there best bet, or was it a risk in the hope of having Gonsolin/Kershaw to start the wswith a win
|
| 8:32 |
Ariel Cohen: May was going to pitch tonight either way, and comfortable in the starting role.
|
| 8:33 |
Brian: Is it that hard to learn both a 4 seam and 2 seam grip?
|
| 8:33 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I think the grips are easy to learn but the finer details of pitch manipulation are tougher (pronation, finger pressure) and a big part of creating movement separation between the two pitches.
|
| 8:33 |
Eric A Longenhagen: BTW two first-pitch hacks at fastballs from the Dodgers so far.
|
| 8:34 |
Brian: I forgot Markakis was still playing…
|
| 8:34 |
David Laurila: Brian Snitker said before the game that you have to manage Nick Markakis to truly appreciate him. Called him a presence.
|
| 8:35 |
Brian: What could be done to get May a better spin axis?
|
| 8:35 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you just leave it the way it is. He’s really good, I wouldn’t risk messing him up.
|
| 8:36 |
David Laurila: Asked about Game 7s, Snitker said today that it’s a baseball game, but it’s a different baseball game.
|
| 8:36 |
John: How do projection systems tend to approach RBI? I would think that it could be tricky as they are so heavily dependent on who hits in front of the player in question
|
| 8:36 |
Ariel Cohen: Typically based on a distribution of batting order, expected production by teammates surrounding. For those projection systems simulating – R and RBI are simply an output of the simulated season model.
|
| 8:36 |
Eric A Longenhagen: But let’s say you *wanted* to. I’ve seen guys’ axis altered by either arm slot change, change in stride direction, or change in hand position. I’m not sure which one would theoretically suit May best, like I said I’d leave well enough alone..
|
| 8:37 |
Ariel Cohen: As for the ATC projection system, ATC blends the approaches used by its underlying systems, regressing on how accurate the systems performed historically.
|
| 8:39 |
Nate: This is easily Anderson’s biggest game ever pitched, right?
|
| 8:39 |
Eric A Longenhagen: oh yes
|
| 8:40 |
David Laurila: Looks like Gonsolin time.
|
| 8:40 |
Ariel Cohen: Typically, Game 7 on an LCS would be a rookie’s biggest game ever pitched.
|
| 8:40 |
Eric A Longenhagen: So just one from May.
|
| 8:40 |
Ian Anderson’s Sleepy Eyes: I guess the most obvious question right now is whether the Dustin May decision pays off. What do you think the Dodgers plan to get out of him today?
|
| 8:40 |
Ariel Cohen: Looks like not much.
|
| 8:42 |
David Laurila: Just saw that Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Sid Hartman has died at the age of 100. A legend at Target Field and the ballparks that preceded it.
|
| 8:42 |
Eric A Longenhagen:
How many innings does Tony Gonsolin go?
< 3 (56.6% | 34 votes)
3-4.2 (18.3% | 11 votes)
twice through the order independent of all else (21.6% | 13 votes)
5 (3.3% | 2 votes)
6+ (0% | 0 votes)
Total Votes: 60
|
| 8:42 |
Ariel Cohen:  Here is the WE after 1 inning.
|
| 8:44 |
Ariel Cohen: Two batters, two fly-balls from Gonsolin. One left the yard.
|
| 8:45 |
Zon: the WE just dipped a little more south
|
| 8:45 |
Ariel Cohen: 29.4% now.
|
| 8:46 |
Lzfreak: Braves starters always seem to run high first inning pitch counts
|
| 8:47 |
Nate: Do you think a healthy Cole Hamels would of helped Braves or more so prevented progression and chances of a new pitcher such as Anderson?
|
| 8:47 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I think at the very least he’d have helped stabilize things during the middle of the year when the team was feeling around in the dark for a whole rotation.
|
| 8:47 |
David Laurila: No idea what tonight’s final score will be, but the Cardinals won 1934 Game 7 by a count of 11-0. Dizzy Dean got the win.
|
| 8:48 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay well Rosenthal just gave us the anser
|
| 8:48 |
Ariel Cohen: This season, we have two Game 7s in the LCS. Can anyone tell me the last time that we two game 7s in the championship series in a single year?
|
| 8:49 |
Ariel Cohen: ’04 is correct.
|
| 8:49 |
Danny Baseball: If it’s Tampa vs. Atl they could have played the WS at home with fans.
|
| 8:49 |
Guest: 2003, 2004 only times
|
| 8:49 |
Ariel Cohen: ’03 was Marlins and Yankees.
|
| 8:49 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Hittable fastball for Pache, that.
|
| 8:50 |
Ariel Cohen: Yankees went to two consecutive ALCS game 7s in the 2000s …
|
| 8:51 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Tough to walk the 9 hitter…
|
| 8:51 |
Sam F.: Is Kershaw mostly unlucky or is he somewhat of a weak performer in the playoffs?
|
| 8:51 |
Ariel Cohen: Kershaw career ERA in the regular season is 2.43. Playoffs is 4.31.
|
| 8:52 |
Ariel Cohen: WHIP though … 1.09 in postseason, 1.00 regular season.
|
| 8:52 |
Ariel Cohen: FIP is a lot closer: 2.75 regular, 3.81 postseason.
|
| 8:53 |
Wood: How impressive has Pache looked? Safe to assume he starts in Atlanta to begin 2021?
|
| 8:53 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Think he’s looked great. Just getting the bat to the ball right now, it’s not sexy but it’s been working. I bet he hits 18 bombs a year once he’s seen this pitching for longer.
|
| 8:53 |
Dodger Fan: ERA isn’t everything. Game 1 of the 2018 WS is a great example. David Freese dropped a pretty easy foul ball pop up and that cost him 2 runs I believe.
|
| 8:53 |
Ariel Cohen: xFIP a lot closer. 2.98 regular, 3.42 postseason.
|
| 8:54 |
Ariel Cohen: He has been better in the regular season, any way that you slice it. The disparity is problably less than people think.
|
| 8:54 |
Ariel Cohen: Winning a world series, and pitching well in the fall classic would also change people’s perception.
|
| 8:54 |
David Laurila: FWIW: Gonsolin learned his split-change from Joel Peralta. Dodgers front office guy Brandon Gomes suggested he talk to Peralta about the pitch.
|
| 8:55 |
kevinthecomic: Kershaw’s playoff performance woes are due to the manager leaving him on too damn long — most damage to his results occur in inning 6 +
|
| 8:55 |
Ariel Cohen: Kershaw tends to have a high average innings pitched per start for the regular season.
|
| 8:56 |
Chamaco: Braves OF next year…Pache, Acuña, and…?
|
| 8:56 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Robbie Grossman/Austin Riley
|
| 8:56 |
Ariel Cohen: Kershaw has averaged 6.6 innings per regular season start roughly. 6.3 in the postseason.
|
| 8:56 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: So what do we think of this no off-day structure? I like how things are more condensed and the expanded rosters combine well with it, but can see why some would prefer the starter-heavy aesthetics.
|
| 8:56 |
Ariel Cohen: I enjoy seeing more of a traditional starting pitcher usage in the playoffs.
|
| 8:57 |
Ariel Cohen: This format greatly helps the Rays …
|
| 8:57 |
Ariel Cohen: (helped)
|
| 8:58 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m for whatever includes fewer pitching changes. I think you can do a 27-man roster for which 25 are active each game, or something like that, and afford the teams more pitchers, effectively, but not at the expense of us watching all of them parade for four hours.
|
| 8:58 |
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s why I really dig the way pitchers were deployed this year. I like seeing longer chunks of more dudes rather than LOOGY inclusion
|
| 8:59 |
Ariel Cohen: Which caused more pitching changes – bigger roster or fewer off-days?
|
| 8:59 |
Guest: Re: Brandon Gomes and Joel Peralta, the mid 10s Rays could play a hand in beating the 20 Rays in the World Series
|
| 8:59 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not saying we had too many this postseason, I just want it to be what’s in mind when they decide the structure
|
| 8:59 |
bosoxforlife: Put me in the camp that much prefers this no days off format.
|
| 9:00 |
Ariel Cohen: I’m surprised though the playoffs started on Mondays, and had fewer weekends included. I think that was a small mistake by MLB, given that we haven’t had any post-season COVID hiccups.
|
| 9:00 |
Dodger Fan: These are all just personal aesthetic preferences.
|
| 9:00 |
Eric A Longenhagen: correct
|
| 9:00 |
Ariel Cohen: *playoff series
|
| 9:01 |
Ariel Cohen: I would think MLB should have done whatever to maximize weekend games …
|
| 9:01 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Hittable-1-1 changeup from Anderson, Pollock needs to hit that
|
| 9:02 |
Ariel Cohen: Joc Pederson up … 92.9 avg exit velocity this season. Very similar statcast metrics to teammate Seager.
|
| 9:02 |
Eric A Longenhagen: My stream is way behind chat’s
|
| 9:03 |
Ariel Cohen: Similar launch angle – 12.3 to Seager’s 11.9
|
| 9:03 |
Dodger Fan: The Rays also have great starters though.
|
| 9:03 |
Ariel Cohen: The Rays were the class of the AL this season!
|
| 9:04 |
Mad Joe-Don: Although, how do we get earlier start times?
|
| 9:04 |
Dan: joc has much worse bat-to-ball skills though right? lots of swing and miss in his game?
|
| 9:04 |
Ariel Cohen: Contact rate not close. Pederson 24.6% K%, to Seager’s 15.9% this season.
|
| 9:04 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I wonder what their calculus is behind the start times. Are we all up later since COVID began? Or are they trying to garner more west coast viewership? No idea. Some marketing major has probably made a fortune knowing.
|
| 9:05 |
Ariel Cohen: Pederson walks more than Seager though.
|
| 9:06 |
Ariel Cohen: Pederson career 12% walk rate. Seager has a 9% career walk rate.
|
| 9:06 |
New User: Is the DH staying in the NL for next year?
|
| 9:06 |
Guest: Am I nuts or should he have tried to score
|
| 9:06 |
Ariel Cohen: Currently, officially no.
|
| 9:06 |
David Laurila: He wouldn’t have scored.
|
| 9:06 |
Ariel Cohen: I’ve heard the extra inning rules are the most likely to be kept of all the rule changes.
|
| 9:07 |
Ariel Cohen: Ian Anderson up to 46 pitches, and we aren’t out of the 2nd inning.
|
| 9:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Excellent change-up to end the 2nd inning for Anderson.
|
| 9:08 |
Braves fan: Anderson’s velo seems down…can anyone confirm?
|
| 9:08 |
David Laurila: My opinion of the extra-inning rule would be best explained by my behavior this year. I switched to another game after nine innings every time. Dead serious.
|
| 9:08 |
Eric A Longenhagen: seems okay yet
|
| 9:09 |
Prospect Hound: Have you heard of anyone who likes the extra inning rule? Everyone I’ve spoken to hates it
|
| 9:09 |
Ariel Cohen: I’ve heard more positive than negative. For me, I could stand to see 2-3 regular innings first. Perhaps start the rule in the 12th inning …
|
| 9:10 |
King Gizzard: The extra inning rules are crap. The 7 inning games are total crap. Expanded playoffs are inevitable, but also pretty crap. The DH is okay.
|
| 9:10 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I think, even without scoring, LA made an impact on the balance of the game in that inning. It probably earned them a look at one extra reliever.
|
| 9:10 |
Ariel Cohen: The DH is quite a different discussion. DH has been in play in the American league for quite some time now.
|
| 9:10 |
Ariel Cohen: 1973
|
| 9:11 |
Ariel Cohen: AAA started DH in 1969
|
| 9:11 |
Dodger Fan: I’m actually OK with 7-inning doubleheaders since they improve pitcher health (and we should have fewer in the future)
|
| 9:11 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Gizz, aren’t you supposed to submit like 5 chat questions in a very short amount of time?
|
| 9:11 |
Adam: 7 inning double headers and extra inning rule are church softball league not MLB
|
| 9:11 |
Ariel Cohen: This was more of a 2020 thing with COVID. You typically don’t have a condensed season, with that many doulbeheaders.
|
| 9:12 |
Ariel Cohen: Remember the days of Day-Night doubleheaders?
|
| 9:12 |
Ariel Cohen:
Should MLB continue with expanded playoffs in 2021?
Yes (13.0% | 13 votes)
No (87.0% | 87 votes)
Total Votes: 100
|
| 9:13 |
kevinthecomic: I was gonna say DH is approaching 50 years old in AL
|
| 9:13 |
Ariel Cohen: Of all the negotiations between owners and players, DH is a small owner consession. In the next collective bargaining, I can’t imagine that the owners wouldn’t include a DH in the NL from here on in …
|
| 9:14 |
Eric A Longenhagen: This has all been hard contact off of Gonsolin
|
| 9:14 |
Ariel Cohen: 5 pitch inning for Tony.
|
| 9:14 |
Adam: Yeah I get it. But I thought the discussion was what might stay. I guess we’ll be stuck with COVID next year but they should have a longer regular season right?
|
| 9:14 |
Ariel Cohen: My guess is that COVID will affect that decision.
|
| 9:14 |
Ariel Cohen: Remember, the doubleheader rule was a mid-season creation.
|
| 9:15 |
Dodger Fan: COVID being a factor next year is inevitable
|
| 9:15 |
Ariel Cohen: 2020 was a success though.
|
| 9:16 |
Ariel Cohen: After procedures were better followed, positive cases went down.
|
| 9:16 |
Ariel Cohen: The playoff bubble has worked.
|
| 9:16 |
David Laurila: From today’s Sunday Notes column:
Anthony Rizzo has 5,416 PAs, 515 extra-base hits, and 229 home runs.
Troy Tulowitzki had 5,415 PAs, 513 extra-base hits, and 225 home runs.
|
| 9:16 |
Craig: I like the drama of division races during the regular season before the postseason drama. I’d love just division champs then the next best team as a wild card. What’s your ideal format?
|
| 9:16 |
Ariel Cohen: I perfer it where the division winners get more for winning the division.
|
| 9:17 |
Ariel Cohen: To me, the goal should be to win the division. It is a failure if you don’t.
|
| 9:17 |
Ariel Cohen: The 2 WC format was more ideal for that than prior rules since the 3 division format.
|
| 9:17 |
Jackson: Gonsolin seemed lucky to get out of that inning 1-2-3
|
| 9:17 |
bosoxforlife: The addition of the second wild card was a stroke of genius. I think the system was working just fine.
|
| 9:18 |
Ariel Cohen: I prefer to have a 3-game series, as 1 game leads to luck … but again … if you didn’t win the division you failed.
|
| 9:18 |
Ariel Cohen: Last year, the wildcard team won the World Series.
|
| 9:18 |
King’s Court: Hot take: I’d rather have ties than the new extra inning rule
|
| 9:19 |
Guest: Any chance some rule or roster size/construction change could reassert the importance of starting pitching? I’m really missing the starter vs starter battle
|
| 9:19 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I think the greater the roster sizes the more emphasis will be on bullpens.
|
| 9:20 |
David Laurila: I kind of like Jayson Stark’s idea that a team loses the DH when the starting pitcher comes out of the game.
|
| 9:20 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree. I’m more inclined to go back to the play-in format but with a three-game series to be the 4 seed, and the rest of the teams play a tournament for $ and draft picks.
|
| 9:21 |
Ariel Cohen: 200 IP – was the proated equivalent of 74 IP this season. Only 5 pitchers had more than 74 innings. Lynn, Marquez, Hendricks, Bieber and Darvish.
|
| 9:21 |
Ariel Cohen: Can anyone name the next highest IP this season? With 74 IP.
|
| 9:21 |
David Laurila: Have hunch that the Dodgers score this inning.
|
| 9:22 |
Appa Yip Yip: If someone cut off Justin Turner’s beard would he lose his powers?
|
| 9:22 |
Ariel Cohen: deGrom didn’t lose his power.
|
| 9:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Nope
|
| 9:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Nope
|
| 9:22 |
Dodger Fan: Bauer? Just a guess honestly
|
| 9:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Nope. 73 IP
|
| 9:23 |
Ariel Cohen: The answer is Aaron Civale. 74 IP
|
| 9:23 |
Ariel Cohen: 4.74 ERA
|
| 9:23 |
Ariel Cohen: 3.92 xFIP
|
| 9:23 |
John Smoltz: are you guys bothered by SPs becoming less important/prominent?
|
| 9:23 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I am not because I think it creates a multi-inning role that Freddy Peralta/Enoli Paredes types just make a career of.
|
| 9:24 |
Eric A Longenhagen: which I think is cool, those guys have great stuff
|
| 9:24 |
Eric A Longenhagen: but probably can’t start in a traditional sense, though are overqualified to be single-inningtypes
|
| 9:24 |
David Laurila: I am now 1 for 1 on hunches tonight.
|
| 9:25 |
Adam: David’s feed seems way far ahead!
|
| 9:26 |
David Laurila: Shouldn’t be. Watching on TV.
|
| 9:26 |
Dude: The home plate ump seems like he’s calling a good game. Is there somewhere you can check on this live?
|
| 9:26 |
Ariel Cohen: Will Smith 2 RBI single with a WPA of .195, highest of the game thus far.
|
| 9:26 |
kevinthecomic: Here’s To Laurila and his feelings! (Lifts glass)
|
| 9:26 |
David Laurila: My feelings are important!
|
| 9:27 |
Eric A Longenhagen:  i gotchu, dude
|
| 9:27 |
Ariel Cohen:  WE now switches to the Dodgers for the first time of the night.
|
| 9:28 |
King’s Court: Whatever happened to the FBI investigation into the Dodgers? And are any of these Braves prospects part of the haul they got when they broke the rules?
|
| 9:28 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers Justice Department Investigation remains ongoing, from what I understand. I think it’s more likely (given the timeline of their Int’l director/staff at the time) something that occurred during the year they acquired Olivera, Alvarez, etc.
|
| 9:28 |
Ariel Cohen: A.J. Pollock now up with 66 hard hits for the Dodgers this season. Only Seager and Betts more.
|
| 9:28 |
Eric A Longenhagen: The Braves had to cut loose all their prospects from the Coppy thing
|
| 9:29 |
Guest: Is Will Smith a perennial All Star?
|
| 9:29 |
Ariel Cohen: Is he the 2nd best offensive catcher in baseball behind JTR now?
|
| 9:30 |
Ariel Cohen: Will Smith though in 2021 won’t get as many ABs as some other catchers. Dodgers will be a favorite to make the postseason and will get plenty of off-days.
|
| 9:30 |
Ariel Cohen: DH could factor in somewhat for Smith in 2021, if the NL keeps it.
|
| 9:31 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, then they can carry Keibert, too
|
| 9:31 |
sucramrenrut: Healthy Salvador Perez says no.
|
| 9:32 |
Guest: Was maddening having Will Smith on my fantasy team and checking the line ups to see Austin Barnes starting every other day
|
| 9:32 |
Ariel Cohen: Not as great a fantasy asset as his skill indicates because of the ABs that I just mentioned. Currently, I have him behind Perez and Contreras for 2021.
|
| 9:32 |
Nick: Ugh this Kershaw commercial is so dumb.
|
| 9:32 |
Ariel Cohen: I’m a big fan of Kershaw’s wife.
|
| 9:32 |
Ariel Cohen: She does great charity work
|
| 9:33 |
Read with a British accent: Suggested article: 60 game stars who aren’t
|
| 9:33 |
bosoxforlife: Are you ignoring d’Arnaud/ He was outstanding this year and will play most of the games if there is a DH.
|
| 9:34 |
Ariel Cohen: d’Arnuad lower still. But he’s a top-10 catcher for 2021. Matters if he will continue to bat mid-lineup.
|
| 9:33 |
Dodger Fan: Ellen is awesome
|
| 9:33 |
Ariel Cohen: Wholesome is the word I would use.
|
| 9:35 |
Dodger Fan: Will Smith is a perennial All-Star. Great slider.
|
| 9:35 |
David Laurila: Will Smith learned his slider when he was in Double-A with the Royals. A fellow lefty named Kevin Chapman showed him the grip.
|
| 9:35 |
Ariel Cohen: For fantasy, batting cleanup on the Braves 2021 squad is a very good spot to be in.
|
| 9:37 |
Ariel Cohen: Dansby Swanson up now – had the 3rd highest number of barrels this season on the Braves after Ozuna and Freeman.
|
| 9:37 |
Ariel Cohen: 19 barrels for a 11.4% barrel%
|
| 9:39 |
Read with a British accent: AJ Minter…Phil Coke?
|
| 9:39 |
David Laurila: Phil Coke had a huge game-ending strikeout in the 2012 ALCS. Fanned Raul Ibanez, who had been Arozarena hot. The vertical break of Coke’s slider averaged just over two inches that year, and the one he threw to Ibanez dove more than five inches.
|
| 9:40 |
Ariel Cohen: Austin Riley one of the only Braves hitters below a 100 wRC+ this season. Nick Markakis was the other. That’s a great lineup.
|
| 9:41 |
Ariel Cohen: Riley with a big RBI. He was batting just .171 this postseason before tonight’s game.
|
| 9:41 |
Guest: “Clayton Kershaw is bouncing around in the Dodger’s bullpen” -@jorgecastillo
|
| 9:41 |
David Laurila: Three-plus innings in, this is a fun game.
|
| 9:42 |
Jeremy: Albies got a really nice read on that hit.
|
| 9:42 |
Guest: Great read by Albies
|
| 9:42 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Albies is so electric
|
| 9:42 |
Ariel Cohen: His line-drive stroke is what sets him apart for me.
|
| 9:42 |
Ariel Cohen: Love his hitting style.
|
| 9:43 |
bosoxforlife: It looks like <3 is going to be the right answer to how long Gonsolin will be in there.
|
| 9:44 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Treinen was non tendered by Oakland last winter, $10 mil deal with LAD. Gonna be lots of guys like this next year.
|
| 9:44 |
Ariel Cohen: How good for the Braves team does Albies’s 7-year $35m contract that he signed prior to the 2019 season look?
|
| 9:45 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, not a great look for his agent, tho
|
| 9:45 |
Ariel Cohen: Could be one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball’s history by some measure.
|
| 9:46 |
Dodger Fan: This is a Victor González situation. Treinen is almost certainly exhausted. Dave Roberts is not good at this.
|
| 9:46 |
Ariel Cohen: 4.6 WAR in 2019 and 0.6 WAR in 2020 for Albies.
|
| 9:46 |
Ariel Cohen: 5 years to go …
|
| 9:46 |
David Laurila: Markakis has over 2,400 hits counting the postseason.
|
| 9:46 |
kevinthecomic: Isn’t 7/35 close to what Evan White signed for?
|
| 9:47 |
Ariel Cohen: $24m for White
|
| 9:47 |
Ariel Cohen: 6 years
|
| 9:47 |
Ariel Cohen: Albies already proven at the major league level
|
| 9:47 |
Eric A Longenhagen: To my eye, his top hand just gets through with more oomphf from the right side, enables him to better handle fastballs.
|
| 9:48 |
Eric A Longenhagen: He gets attacked with velo as a lefty
|
| 9:48 |
demo: Last game for Roberts if they lose?
|
| 9:49 |
Ariel Cohen: If you are the Braves, are you happy with just 1 more run this inning?
|
| 9:49 |
David Laurila: Bad baserunning by the Braves. Brutal.
|
| 9:50 |
Ariel Cohen: That 5-2-5-6 DP was about as bad as it gets for the Braves.
|
| 9:51 |
David Laurila: From today’s Sunday Notes column:
“Cristian Pache shared a glass-is-half-full perspective on his 2020 season, which was spent almost exclusively at Atlanta’s alternative training site. The 21-year-old outfielder pointed out that he got 15 at bats per day against a variety of pitchers in live-BP sessions, which he feels helped prepare him for October.”
|
| 9:51 |
Ariel Cohen: So Riley went to 2B on the wild pitch. That actually HURT the Braves.
|
| 9:51 |
I am rooting for the Dodgers: ohmyTOOTBLAN
|
| 9:51 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Well, that’s huge huge huge
|
| 9:53 |
David Laurila: Bullpen tim for Braves.
|
| 9:53 |
Ariel Cohen: That double play was a -.101 WPA for the Braves.
|
| 9:53 |
Ariel Cohen: The d’Arnaud DP in the fist inning was a -.090 WPA.
|
| 9:54 |
Eric A Longenhagen: One thing I’ll be glad for shortly: I’ll be exposed to almost no TV advertising once the playoffs are done.
|
| 9:55 |
Dan K: Blake Treinen gonna dominate the WPA this game
|
| 9:55 |
Ariel Cohen: Gonsolin -.242 WPA, May -.059. Treinen .052 WPA so far
|
| 9:56 |
David Laurila: 2019 AirHog pitching for Atlanta.
|
| 9:57 |
Ariel Cohen: Joc Pederson up – Career 128 wRC+ vs RHP. … just 59 vs LHP.
|
| 9:59 |
David Laurila: Per a Tweet I just saw, no Braves team has ever won a Word Series in a 162 game season.
|
| 9:59 |
Ariel Cohen: Chris Taylor now batting for the Dodgers – Just a .161 BA this postseason, lowest on the team with at least 2 AB.
|
| 10:00 |
Ariel Cohen: Of course, as I typed this, he got a hit!
|
| 10:01 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Wonder if they’ll start Taylor here
|
| 10:01 |
Cam: Graterol up in the Dodgers ‘pen..so scratch the idea that he’s being held for the 9th ahead of Jansen, who’s gotta be tired.
|
| 10:02 |
kdl: Ariel, quick type something abtout me never winning the lottery
|
| 10:02 |
Ariel Cohen: You won’t play 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 to win the lottery tomorrow.
|
| 10:02 |
Ariel Cohen: Anyone know where those numbers are from?
|
| 10:03 |
Ariel Cohen: Yes!
|
| 10:03 |
Ariel Cohen: 42 of course overlaps well with baseball.
|
| 10:04 |
David Laurila: When the Braves beat the Yankees in the 1957 World Series, Lew Burdette threw shutouts in Games 5 and 7. He pitched Game 7 on two days rest.
|
| 10:04 |
Ariel Cohen: Seager’s out was at 105.2 EV. Smoked!
|
| 10:07 |
Zon: I’m blown away by just how good all these players are.
|
| 10:07 |
David Laurila: Braves pitchers are on pace to throw 200 pitches.
|
| 10:08 |
rusty: what an incredible game so far
|
| 10:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Max Muncy up with the bases loaded. He led the Dodgers in walk rate this season with a 15.7% BB%.
|
| 10:10 |
Appa Yip Yip: Remember when Max Muncy told Madison Bumgarner to fetch his home run ball out of the ocean?
|
| 10:10 |
Ariel Cohen: Rotowear had an instant classic shirt to commemorate that.
|
| 10:10 |
Lzfreak: Over/under 4 hours 20 minutes for this game?
|
| 10:10 |
Ariel Cohen: Not a bad O/U.
|
| 10:11 |
Ariel Cohen: Max Muncy strikes out to end the inning, leaving the bases loaded. That’s 15 Ks during the postseason for Max, most on the Dodgers.
|
| 10:12 |
David Laurila: The game Meg and I chatted a few nights ago went four hours. With little drama, it felt longer. This game has drama.
|
| 10:12 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Man, 20 months ago Matzek was throwing indoors for scouts hoping for a job offer.
|
| 10:13 |
Ariel Cohen: Muncy’s strikeout was a -.099 WPA. Highest leverage event of the contest thus far.
|
| 10:13 |
Ariel Cohen: Dodgers have not passed the 50% WE since it was 50%, tied after 3 innings.
|
| 10:14 |
Ariel Cohen:  Here is the tense WE graph thus far.
|
| 10:14 |
David Laurila: Ack. I just accidentally deleted a chat comment instead of choosing it. It was equated old-fashioned postseason pitching duels to heavyweight fights.
|
| 10:14 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Loving all of these huge WPA plays. Good game sevens are such a treat.
|
| 10:15 |
Dodger Fan: Wasn’t the DP higher?
|
| 10:15 |
Ariel Cohen: I meant for the Dodgers. But yes.
|
| 10:16 |
lmb2020: to that muncy strikeout i say “ack”
|
| 10:16 |
David Laurila: Bill the cat!
|
| 10:16 |
Ariel Cohen: Any feeling as to which “Balls” MLB is using for the postseason? Seems that we aren’t back to the 2018-2019 balls.
|
| 10:16 |
Ariel Cohen: Freeman couldn’t clear the wall there …
|
| 10:17 |
Ariel Cohen: Or couldn’t clear Betts, I should say …
|
| 10:16 |
David Laurila: Markus Betts is good at baseball.
|
| 10:18 |
Jerome Walton: % of right fielders who make that play?
|
| 10:18 |
Guest: Where does the Dodgers OF rank among the best defensive OFs we’ve seen in, say, the last 25 years?
|
| 10:18 |
David Laurila: Right up there with Boston’s when they had Betts.
|
| 10:18 |
Zon: Man, this game is nuts. not even half way done, either.
|
| 10:19 |
David Laurila: Jackie Bradley Jr. is at least Bellinger’s equal in CF.
|
| 10:19 |
King’s Court: Yes this is coming from an M’s fan, but Mike Cameron – Ichiro in the early 2000’s was insane defense
|
| 10:20 |
Appa Yip Yip: As a fan of an AL East team I very much enjoy getting to enjoy watching Mookie Betts now.
|
| 10:21 |
Luxury Tax Savings: Mookie has saved, what, 4-5 runs with the three catches he made the last three days? Craziest defensive performance in a playoff series I’ve seen in a while.
|
| 10:21 |
Ariel Cohen: In fantasy baseball, I believe that Betts should be the #1 pick in standard 5×5 roto for 2021. And I’m more certain of this overall #1 selection than I had been in a few recent seasons.
|
| 10:22 |
Creamy: Given all the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic, baseball fans should be grateful to witness an intense Game 7 like this in late October . . .
|
| 10:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Of course, fantasy baseball doesn’t consider defense….
|
| 10:23 |
David Laurila: With the caveat that it would make for an even-longer night, extra innings would be fun.
|
| 10:24 |
Ariel Cohen: Still early yet. A number of the NLCS games in 2020 have been lanslides early on.
|
| 10:25 |
Guest: I haven’t seen the 14th inning all year but I would kill for it
|
| 10:25 |
Ariel Cohen: What would the extra inning rules with runner on 2nd do to postseason games …
|
| 10:26 |
Floyd: If the Braves play the Rays who gets to wear their navy blue jerseys?
|
| 10:26 |
Ariel Cohen: A lot of blue is still left alive in the postseason …
|
| 10:26 |
David Laurila: Can you imagine a game like this going extras and having a runner start an inning at second base?
|
| 10:27 |
Ariel Cohen: It would be interesting, but I don’t think I’d enjoy it as much.
|
| 10:26 |
Cam: This umpire’s zone is becoming very inconsistent. Up, down, away..
|
| 10:26 |
Ariel Cohen: The umpire is very clearly heard on tonight’s broadcast, including his slight accent.
|
| 10:28 |
Guest: Starting with a runner on 2nd is like starting a movie 40 min in- there’s no emotional build up so the pay off isn’t nearly as satisfying
|
| 10:28 |
kevinthecomic: Other 2020 changes that stick next year: Blue Jay’s relocate to Buffalo
|
| 10:28 |
Ariel Cohen: There were 3 teams in the state of NY this year.
|
| 10:29 |
Creamy: Acuna and Tatis should steal more bases but Mookie has a longer track record and will have a higher BA . . .
|
| 10:29 |
Ariel Cohen: I have a hard time moving Tatis up to the top 2-3 as this was a career year. Regression prevails. Also, shortstops are deeper than you think. Outfielders get a bigger replacement level bump in most formats.
|
| 10:30 |
Brandon: Early it seemed like the zone might give about a half-inch on either side of the plate, but it’s gotten tighter. The top and bottom have been pretty fuzzy.
|
| 10:30 |
Ariel Cohen: Tighter zone on the whole I feel.
|
| 10:31 |
Prospect Hound: Before the game starts, have you heard anything interesting coming out of instructs, Eric? Any bodies that have changed for the better or worse during quarantine?
|
| 10:31 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Some, still very early. Some of the young int’l players came to camp bigger and stronger but no idea how it’s impacting performance yet.
|
| 10:32 |
Prospect Hound: Did any players surprise you that were listed invited to instructs?
|
| 10:32 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. Such a strange year, it’s hard to evaluate. In a normal year it’d be weird to see some of these two and three-year pros in camp.
|
| 10:33 |
Ariel Cohen: Brusdar Graterol was acquired for Kenta Maeda this season. Maeda finished 9th in baseball among pitchers with a 2.1 WAR this season.
|
| 10:34 |
Ariel Cohen: Not a great trade for 2020 proper, but Maeda was traded partially due to contract trigger concerns. Maeda’s innings were more limited in LA. MIN let him pitch.
|
| 10:35 |
Zon: Do you believe that this will be Maeda’s career year?
|
| 10:35 |
Ariel Cohen: Likely because of age regression. He’s 32 currently.
|
| 10:35 |
Eric A Longenhagen: And Brusdar was supposed to go to BOS for Mookie but it was whacked due to his medical
|
| 10:35 |
kevinthecomic: They doin’ an AFL this year?
|
| 10:35 |
Ariel Cohen: Cancelled!
|
| 10:35 |
Ariel Cohen: Fall stars was suppsed to be a week ago there.
|
| 10:37 |
Egm: Why doesn’t Graterol get more strikeouts?
|
| 10:37 |
Eric A Longenhagen: fastball shape
|
| 10:37 |
Ariel Cohen: The FS announcers just stated that Brusdar Graterol has the lowest K% in the majors this year. It was 11.4%.
|
| 10:37 |
Zon: How close is Graterol currently to his ceiling on a percentage basis in your opinion, Eric?
|
| 10:38 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I have him in as a high leverage reliever near the back of the top 100.
|
| 10:38 |
David Laurila: If there are any Blue Jays fans in the chat, you can look forward to a Patrick Murphy article tomorrow. (Non-Jays fans can look forward to it, as well.)
|
| 10:38 |
Ariel Cohen: That was for the NL. Tom Eshelman had a 9% for the Orioles and TJ McFarland 9.8% for the A’s.
|
| 10:39 |
Creamy: Who will produce more WAR in the next 5 years: Swanson or Corey Seager?
|
| 10:40 |
Eric A Longenhagen: good question, I’ll take Seager yet. Think he stays at SS for a while and he’s been injury free for a while now
|
| 10:40 |
Ariel Cohen: Seager
|
| 10:40 |
The Hamburglar: Where the hell is Cistulli at?
|
| 10:40 |
David Laurila: Presumably in Maine, where the rain stays mainly in the plain.
|
| 10:41 |
Ariel Cohen: ZiPS has Paul DeJong producing more WAR in 2021 than Swanson !
|
| 10:41 |
Eric A Longenhagen: TUBI!
|
| 10:41 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone tubi?
|
| 10:42 |
Eric A Longenhagen: or do not tubi?
|
| 10:42 |
David Laurila: Hunch #2 on the night: The Dodgers score this inning.
|
| 10:43 |
guest: Baseball Savant has Graterol in the bottom 1% in whiff rate. What does he need to do to start missing bats?
|
| 10:43 |
Ariel Cohen: Graterol’s O-Swing% was just 28.7% in 2020. His Z-Swing was 65.6%. Looks like the key is in deception – batters are reading his balls as balls. Its not stuff, batters just aren’t fooled on location.
|
| 10:43 |
Andy: No hunches for Braves to score?
|
| 10:44 |
David Laurila: Hunches are hunches. They come when thy come.
|
| 10:45 |
Dodger Fan: I like David’s hunches
|
| 10:45 |
Ariel Cohen: I think that the pinch hit call worked, no?
|
| 10:46 |
Lzfreak: Another successful hunch!
|
| 10:46 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Nice call, Laurila
|
| 10:47 |
Purple Urkel: Hunchgraphs
|
| 10:47 |
Ariel Cohen: So question – assuming that there was no 3-batter minimum rule … would Snitker have taken Minter out and not have him face Kike?
|
| 10:48 |
Ariel Cohen:  WE has now once again shifted in the Dodgers favor …
|
| 10:49 |
Lzfreak: Doesn’t he have to face at least one batter?
|
| 10:49 |
Ariel Cohen: Ah, yes that’s true. But let’s assume it was with 1 out. Then what ???
|
| 10:49 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Joe Davis has been great.
|
| 10:50 |
sucramrenrut: WE in a tie always shifts to home team though right?
|
| 10:50 |
Ariel Cohen: At the start of an inning, its 50%. But any time in the bottom of the inning … yes.
|
| 10:50 |
Chamaco: Taking Minter out – if no minimum, he probably should have. But my guess is Minter’s recent 3 IP performance would have led him to keep him in
|
| 10:52 |
David Laurila: This is a great game.
|
| 10:52 |
Ariel Cohen: Wow, play at the plate. We have crazy DPs, catches over the fence …. how good is this game?
|
| 10:53 |
Ariel Cohen: And it isn’t a crazy low scoring game, or crazy high scoring game. Truly fantastic.
|
| 10:53 |
Ariel Cohen:
Do you prefer high scoring games, or pitching duels?
High Scoring Games (30.5% | 26 votes)
Pitching Duels (69.4% | 59 votes)
Total Votes: 85
|
| 10:53 |
Eric A Longenhagen: This game is sick.
|
| 10:54 |
Guest: what’s with the o’leary link lol
|
| 10:54 |
Eric A Longenhagen: they mentioned him on the broadcast, when’s the last time you revisited Troy O’Leary?
|
| 10:55 |
Ariel Cohen: Minter gives up a HR. He only gave up one the entire season. He had a 0.83 ERA in 2020.
|
| 10:56 |
Brandon: Hernandez fouled off two insanely good pitches on the inside/outside corners to stay alive before he found that fastball.
|
| 10:56 |
Ariel Cohen:
Will this game end on a walk-off?
Walk off HR (10.0% | 8 votes)
Walk off other hit (12.5% | 10 votes)
Walk off sac fly (0% | 0 votes)
Walk off walk (1.2% | 1 vote)
No walk off (76.2% | 61 votes)
Total Votes: 80
|
| 10:57 |
David Laurila: Troy O’Leary hit a grand slam and a three-run homer in ALDS Game 5 in 1999 – – each time after an intentional walk to Nomar Garciaparra.
|
| 10:59 |
Ariel Cohen: The Seager fielder’s choice had a WPA of -.123. That was the second highest negative offensive event in the game thus far next to the brutal Markakis DP groundout.
|
| 11:00 |
Craig: Who are your favorite 2 or 3 players in this series?
|
| 11:00 |
Ariel Cohen: I love Freddie Freeman. He’s #1 by a mile for me.
|
| 11:00 |
Ariel Cohen: Albies likely #2 for me.
|
| 11:00 |
RIP Whitey Ford: WS 1964 Bouton & Stottlemyre each threw CG’s for NYY, Gibson threw 2 CG’s for the Cards including one for 10 innings, shame this doesn’t happen anymore. Maybe Bauer.
|
| 11:02 |
Dodger Fan: Freddie Freeman might also be my favorite player in this series. Make sure to read my name
|
| 11:03 |
Creamy: the 3 batter minimum rule has been awesome. I say keep all of the new rules for the 2021 regular season . . ,
|
| 11:03 |
Ariel Cohen: The 3-batter rule came about before COVID hit. That was a new 2020 addition regardless.
|
| 11:04 |
Sugarsticky: Freeman seems like a fairly bland, one-dimensional player. What’s the big appeal?
|
| 11:04 |
Ariel Cohen: Minimum 3.4 WAR in every season since 2013. And yes, that includes the 2020 60-game season.
|
| 11:05 |
Dodger Fan: Freeman is the nicest human on the planet
|
| 11:05 |
Ariel Cohen:  Back to 50% WPA to start the inning. It was the 4th time since the start of the game that the WE touched the neutral line.
|
| 11:06 |
Craig: This commercial break is taking forever. A baseball moment you like? Doesn’t have to be a favorite, but whatever comes to mind
|
| 11:06 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Dexter Fowler leaping over Chase Utley in the Wild Card series back in…i don’t even remember
|
| 11:06 |
Zon: It’s a shame this will be the last game of the season for one of these teams.
|
| 11:06 |
Creamy: Gotta keep the DH for the NL. And it saves the pitching staff to start a runner on 2nd base in extras and play 7 inning doubleheader’s.
|
| 11:07 |
Ariel Cohen: Do we think that winning such a great game will give the NL winner a bit of momentum over the Rays heading into the world series on Tuesday night?
|
| 11:08 |
Dodger Fan: Doesn’t momentum just…not exist?
|
| 11:08 |
Ariel Cohen: There are hot streaks in baseball. I’ll disagree with that.
|
| 11:08 |
Cam: I know it’s a scheduling thing, but..it does irk me that the AL benefits from being scheduled an extra days rest than the NL
|
| 11:08 |
Lunch Angle: I was just thinking how unfair it is that the AL champ gets an extra day’s rest before the WS than the NL champ
|
| 11:08 |
Ariel Cohen: Doesn’t alter either each year.
|
| 11:09 |
Ariel Cohen: Of course, it helps set NL rotations better for those teams just squeaking into the playoffs in late September.
|
| 11:09 |
Ariel Cohen: But point taken.
|
| 11:09 |
Creamy: AL has to travel from San Diego to Texas
|
| 11:09 |
Ariel Cohen: For this year, we understand. Good point.
|
| 11:10 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve officially turned to the All 9 cam on the Fox app.
|
| 11:10 |
Ariel Cohen: If the Dodgers have a 1-2 run lead heading into the 9th, does Kershaw come in for the save?
|
| 11:11 |
Fred: Rays have Glasnow/Snell in Games 1 and 2. The winner of this game won’t have Buhler/Fried/Urias/Gonsolin/May/Anderson on full rest until Game 3
|
| 11:11 |
Cito’s Mustache: This game just feels like it’s going to come down to a special 9th inning moment from someone like Betts or Acuña, right?
|
| 11:12 |
David Laurila: Would be cool if that happened.
|
| 11:13 |
Guest: Speaking of Globe Life Field or whatever, anyone else looking forward to seeing what Leodys Taveras does next year?
|
| 11:13 |
Eric A Longenhagen: (raises hand)
|
| 11:14 |
David Laurila: Was going to post this before Markakis’s last AB, but didn’t ad he got pinch-hit for. Guess I’ll do so now, just for grins.
Nick Markakis was drafted and signed by the Orioles in 2003. He’d previously been drafted in both 2001 and 2002, each time by the Cincinnati Reds.
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| 11:15 |
Ariel Cohen: Markakis was also one of the few players who opted out … and then opted into the 2020 season.
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| 11:16 |
Craig: Is there a name for the hole between first and second? Travis d’Arnaud walk off single through that hole
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| 11:16 |
Ariel Cohen: As a Mets fan, that play at the plate sadly reminded me of that play at the plate against the Royals in the 2015 world series. What a difference 5 years makes …
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| 11:17 |
SCOTT TINSTAAPP: Maeda’s innings were more limited in LA. MIN let him pitch.>>never understood why LAD did this. surely if any team could they could afford Maeda’s contract triggers
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| 11:17 |
Ariel Cohen: The Dodgers had excellent quality players to fill in for Maeda’s innings that they didn’t let him pitch. The drop between him and the rest was not worth the contract triggers to the Dodgers.
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| 11:17 |
Craig: You think any players from the WS teams will regret opting out? Think David Price or such if the Dodgers win. They could’ve used him, right?
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| 11:17 |
Ariel Cohen: Part of that Mookie deal was Price, right? I know the Dodgers signed Betts long term, but the trade initially turned into just 60 games of Mookie.
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| 11:18 |
Steve Nebraska: Eric, what are you doing about the rookie rule changes? For example, the Angels seemed to be keeping Adell out of the lineup at the end of the year not just because he was paying poorly but to keep him under 130 ABs… Now he’s magically not a rookie next season. Seems like bs…
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| 11:18 |
Eric A Longenhagen: MLB made it so September days (this one time) count toward the 45 days on the roster needed to exceed rookie eligibility. So I think he has graduated.
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| 11:18 |
Fred: Maeda was also nails as a RP and filled a team need
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| 11:18 |
Ariel Cohen: Right. But clearly, his value was better pitching more innings, and he had the ability to be a starter.
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| 11:18 |
Creamy: the grounder to Wright where Hosmer scored?
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| 11:18 |
Ariel Cohen: Right. Makes me sad.
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| 11:19 |
Ariel Cohen: Seeing fans in the stadium surrounding the Bellinger HR makes it so much more dramatic.
4-3 Dodgers in the 7th now.
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| 11:20 |
Brandon: What the hell are these Dodgers players, seriously. Fouling off pitches to survive and then hitting clutch homers.
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| 11:21 |
Jeremy: I like how all the deep fly balls in this game are either shallow enough to be robbed, or mammoth blasts.
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| 11:22 |
Bb: As a Mets fan, thoughts on BVW?
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| 11:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Few successful moves over what another GM would do. JD Davis comes to mind as his best move yet. Kelenic succeeding would seal his fate as an awful GM.
He may be out with Cohen buying the team. (And no, no relation to me)
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| 11:22 |
Jackson: That was a postseason moment Bellinger needed given how poorly he has performed in the playoffs (both this season and in his career)
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| 11:22 |
Lzfreak: Can we get a wp graph?
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| 11:22 |
Ariel Cohen: Waiting for the inning to end, but yes, shortly…
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| 11:24 |
Ariel Cohen:  Bellinger’s HR had a .243 WPA, highest event of the game thus far. WE now at 75% for LA.
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| 11:26 |
Ariel Cohen: Ignore some of my other predictions, of course.
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| 11:26 |
Joe: Question: When you say “.243 WPA, highest event of the game thus far” is that in absolute value or strictly positive values? Basically, what was the DP again?
|
| 11:26 |
Eric A Longenhagen: .101 iirc
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| 11:26 |
Ariel Cohen: Its the absolute value
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| 11:26 |
David Laurila: That would be a shoulder injury of all postseason shoulder injuries.
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| 11:27 |
Egm: I really want to see a Braves/Rays World Series, but after 2017/2018 I can’t hate the Dodgers.
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| 11:27 |
Ariel Cohen: The Astros lost last night, and 24 hours later or so, the Dodgers may win the pennant. Is that karma?
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| 11:27 |
Jamie: if Urias cleanly handles the 8th does he get the 9th too? Or do we see victor gonzalez/floro/somebody
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| 11:29 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know, I don’t love him facing all these righties in a row. But he’s dealing.
|
| 11:28 |
Ariel Cohen: This could be Freddie Freeman’s last at-bat of 2020. Freeman is an NL MVP candidate.
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| 11:28 |
Ariel Cohen: .341/.462/.640 for Freeman this year.
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| 11:29 |
David Laurila: Smoltz has been good tonight IMO.
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| 11:29 |
Ariel Cohen: Smoltz is a very underrated commentator.
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| 11:29 |
Zon: Who was it that hurt their leg on a walk off home run when he jumped on the plate some years ago?
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| 11:29 |
Ariel Cohen: Kendry Morales
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| 11:30 |
Ariel Cohen: Almost killed Morales’s career. Took him a few years to get right.
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| 11:30 |
David Laurila: People complain about broadcasters way too often. It’s not an easy job.
|
| 11:30 |
Cam: When they were showing a replay of the celebrations, I winced when May was leaping off the barricade in the background. Probably should have been looking at the foreground instead. If Belli realy is hurt there…come on, man.
|
| 11:30 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I worry he dislocated it.
|
| 11:30 |
Ariel Cohen: I’m fortunate to have Gary Cohen & team broadcast my Mets.
|
| 11:31 |
Cito’s Mustache: This has been one of the best called games of the postseason IMO. Kudos to both Joe Davis and John Smoltz.
|
| 11:32 |
Ariel Cohen: Julio Urias at the moment is the pitcher on record, who stands to win the game. Does he start the 9th inning?
|
| 11:33 |
Lzfreak: Hunch: d’Arnaud homer here
|
| 11:33 |
Zon: Broadcasting, managing and umpiring are all underappreciated and overly criticized.
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| 11:33 |
Flying_Nimbus: No, take Urias out
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| 11:33 |
Cam: I think Roberts has to roll with him. His issues this year have been in the first inning, post that, he’s really good. If he’s dealing, let him deal.
|
| 11:34 |
Ariel Cohen: Amazingly, Travis d’Arnuad has a reverse split.
|
| 11:34 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Urias’ changeup is switched on.
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| 11:34 |
Ariel Cohen: In 2020, his wRC+ was 37 vs LHP and 172 vs RHP
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| 11:35 |
Flying_Nimbus: I want Albies batting LH
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| 11:35 |
David Laurila: Having no horse in this race, I want a scoreless bottom of the eighth so it’s a one-run game going into the night. Maximize the drama.
|
| 11:36 |
Ariel Cohen: Love it!
|
| 11:37 |
Ariel Cohen: Great shot.
|
| 11:37 |
Ariel Cohen:
|
| 11:37 |
Creamy: Ride Urias just like Charlie Morton closed it out for Houston a few years back . . . Urias is in the groove . . .
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| 11:37 |
Cito’s Mustache: If Urias runs into trouble in the 9th, is Jansen the one to come in and clean it up?
|
| 11:37 |
David Laurila: I think they do this.
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| 11:37 |
Ariel Cohen: Joe Kelly?
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| 11:37 |
Ariel Cohen: 🙂
|
| 11:38 |
Ariel Cohen: Joe Kelly would be an interesting closer for tonight.
|
| 11:38 |
Zon: I think they’ll roll with Julio and have 2 arms warming just in case.
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| 11:38 |
Ariel Cohen: I’d imagine that.
|
| 11:39 |
Daniel: Dave has to stick with Urias here. Kershaw’s never been great in relief. Kenley’s pitched two days in a row and despite the last two nights, has had a shaky season. The rest of the Dodger bullpen has been beat up pretty badly this series.
|
| 11:39 |
Snape Killed Dumbledore: 2022 FA SSs in order: Lindor, Seager, Story, gap, Baez, big gap, Correa?
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| 11:39 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d move the gaps up but otherwise think that’s a fine order. I have concerns about Story’s arm utility and think he may endup in the OF soon. Baez is the best athlete of the group and probably plays the longest.
|
| 11:39 |
Angel Hernandez: It would be a tad cruel to take out Hernandez … but this seems like a situation for Rios
|
| 11:40 |
Eric A Longenhagen: agreed
|
| 11:41 |
Braves fan: I approve of leaving Urias in and letting Albies hit from the right side
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| 11:42 |
sucramrenrut: Albies hit all 6 RS homers from the L side this year.
|
| 11:42 |
Daniel: You want to keep Hernandez in for his defense, in my opinion.
|
| 11:42 |
Eric A Longenhagen: He hit for Joc in the DH spot.
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| 11:42 |
Eric A Longenhagen: but ordinarily I’d agree with that
|
| 11:42 |
David Laurila: When the Dodgers were down big in the middle innings of game 2, my Twitter feed was filled with variations of “they’re in deep sh-t; they’re choking again; they’re done.”
|
| 11:43 |
Jess: If you’re the braves, who do you have as your 9th inning pitcher if you get there?
|
| 11:43 |
Ariel Cohen: Will Smith?
|
| 11:43 |
Ariel Cohen: Would be cool to see Will Smith vs Will Smith for the game in the bottom of the 9th.
|
| 11:44 |
Eric A Longenhagen: great throw by Pache to make that somewhat close
|
| 11:44 |
Eric A Longenhagen: he was shaded to left center
|
| 11:45 |
Ariel Cohen:
Nobody is throwing in the Dodgers’ bullpen.
This will be Julio Urias’ game to finish. 19 Oct 2020
|
| 11:45 |
Ariel Cohen: Urias it is.
|
| 11:46 |
David Laurila: Am I expected to have a hunch right around now?
|
| 11:46 |
Snape Killed Dumbledore: Better SS prospect in 2 years: Cristian Hernandez or Ed Howard?
|
| 11:46 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I have more confidence in Howard’s contact skills so I’ll say him.
|
| 11:46 |
Travis L: Pache has really shown up as a big leaguer this postseason. We’ve now seen the strong defense, the plate discipline, and the power show off. Shouldn’t there be more excitement about this guy?
|
| 11:47 |
Guest: Anyone else rooting for extra innings simply because they don’t want this great series to end?
|
| 11:47 |
Ariel Cohen:  Dodgers are 84% to win.
|
| 11:47 |
Craig: Nice to read about your views on Pache or some other prospect then see them in person and think oh yeah I see what they meant
|
| 11:48 |
Eric A Longenhagen: the TLDR is on point
|
| 11:48 |
Cam: I like this. The situation protects Jansen a little bit too – Roberts isn’t making a call to take the ball out of his closer’s hands per se – he’s able to run with the hot guy in Urias while acknowledging Jansen has worked back to back days already
|
| 11:48 |
Ariel Cohen: Jansen has been used a lot recently.
|
| 11:48 |
Chamaco: Pache doesn’t get more hype because the profile is a better in real life than in fantasy
|
| 11:49 |
Ariel Cohen: Most defensive players are like that.
|
| 11:48 |
Eric A Longenhagen: ah, an interesting observation.
|
| 11:48 |
J boy: I would trust jansen more than urias here
|
| 11:49 |
Zon: There have been so many relatively inexperienced young players having huge moments in this post season that feels different to me on top of all the other reasons this has been a strange experience for fans and players alike.
|
| 11:50 |
Ariel Cohen: Urias has not allowed a baserunner so far.
|
| 11:50 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, so Hernandez is in as a defensive replacement. Guess there’s no harm in surrendering the DH at this point.
|
| 11:51 |
Daniel: Hernandez in defensively — I am not surprised. 🙂
|
| 11:51 |
Ariel Cohen: Swanson one of the Braves last chances up now. He already homered earlier in the game.
|
| 11:51 |
David Laurila: Bryan Shaw was the losing pitcher in 2016 WS Game 7. When the clubhouse opened to reporters after it was over, Shaw was standing at his locker ready to answer any and all questions.
|
| 11:51 |
Eric A Longenhagen: Has to avoid down and in to Swanson
|
| 11:52 |
Guest: The headline for Dansby Swanson’s final season, whenever that is, should be: “Swanson’s Swansong.” Take note, internet, this chat came up with it first.
|
| 11:52 |
Ariel Cohen: He’s pitching him away
|
| 11:52 |
Ariel Cohen: 2 groundball outs this inning for Urias.
|
| 11:53 |
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna take a moment now to say thank you for joining us tonight.
|
| 11:53 |
Ariel Cohen: Dodgers come back down 3-1 to take the series.
|
| 11:53 |
Ariel Cohen: Thank you everyone for joining us tonight!
|
| 11:53 |
Ariel Cohen: Thanks Eric and David … it was great chatting with you tonight!
|
| 11:54 |
David Laurila: Great game. Thanks all for coming to chat. Congrats Dodgers. It should be a great World Series.
|
| 11:54 |
Ariel Cohen: For those who don’t know me – follow me at @ATCNY on Twitter.
|
| 11:54 |
Eric A Longenhagen: good night everyone. Congrats Dodgers and Rays fans.
|
| 11:54 |
sucramrenrut: Two best teams in each league in the WS in the SSS season, weird.
|
| 11:55 |
Ariel Cohen: What an exciting game – two game 7s this year!
|
| 11:55 |
Chamaco: If you like the chat, support FanGraphs as a member. Thanks guys!
|
| 11:55 |
Ariel Cohen: Please do join us as a member to keep these great chats going on!
|
| 11:55 |
Guest: Thanks, FanGraphs!
|
| 11:55 |
Craig: Nice having you around Ariel. Good guy
|
| 11:55 |
Ariel Cohen: Thanks!
|
| 11:55 |
Section329: Thanks for hosting this awesome game
|
| 11:55 |
Snape Killed Dumbledore: I appreciate you guys hosting this chat, thanks
|
| 11:55 |
Cam: Thank you Ariel and Eric – awesome stuff
|
| 11:55 |
Daniel: Great game, great chat. Thanks!
|
| 11:56 |
Cito’s Mustache: Thanks for these chats, guys. Always fun!
|
| 11:56 |
Zon: Thanks fellas, for hosting this chat and allowing me to contribute some. You guys are great company to take in a game with.
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
