NLDS Game One Review: Cincinnati
Sometimes, you lose. Other times, the opponent wins. Last night, Roy Halladay beat the Reds, and they should just tip their hat to him and say congratulations. He threw one of the great pitching performances in postseason history, and no one would have been able to muster any offense against him last night. It was an epic performance of which the Reds just happened to be the victims.
That said, on any other night, the Reds probably would have had a chance to win. Despite getting dominated at the plate, the distance between victory and defeat was pretty small.
1st inning: Shane Victorino doubles, steals third, scores on a sac fly.
Credit to Victorino, who had a great at-bat and a ballsy steal of third base to get himself in position to score on a fly ball. He had two really good plays in a row, and created that run by himself. But a better throw from Ramon Hernandez has a good chance at getting him. He bounced it in front of the base, and if the throw had been on target, the result might have been quite different.
2nd inning: Carlos Ruiz walks, Wilson Valdez “singles”, Roy Halladay “singles”.
No question, Volquez struggled to find his command yesterday, but the beginning of the big rally was pretty innocuous. He couldn’t find the strike zone to Ruiz, but with a bad hitter and the pitcher due up, that’s not the end of the world. Valdes then hit a soft bouncer up the middle that Orlando Cabrera misplayed. I don’t know if he could have gotten Valdes at first base, but Cabrera’s decision to flip to second was misguided even before he missed Brandon Phillips by a couple of feet.
Then, the big hit, which was only a hit because Jonny Gomes started in left field. Halladay hit a sinking line drive, but I’d venture to guess that almost every left fielder in baseball catches that ball – Jayson Werth made the play on a similar line drive by Travis Wood a few innings later, in fact. Gomes’s lack of athleticism turned an inning ending out into an RBI single, and forced Volquez to face the top of the Phillies order with men on base.
This isn’t to make excuses for Volquez, who had trouble putting the ball in the strike zone and was pitching behind in the count too frequently. But the only legitimate hit he gave up in the second inning was Victorino’s single, and even that was more of a blooper than a line drive. Cabrera and Gomes let him down on balls that could have easily ended the inning.
Those three plays – a bad throw on a steal of third, a poor decision by Cabrera, and a lack of ability from Gomes – are why the Phillies scored. They weren’t launching bombs and driving the ball all over the park. They didn’t tee off on Volquez. It was a couple of inches here, a snap judgment there. The Phillies won, but the Reds kept their offense in check, and they don’t have to face Roy Halladay again until Monday. Those two facts alone provide some reasons for optimism.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Wilson Valdez spells him name with a Z, like “Zoinks, I have to click the publish button without a proper editing process.”
At least now we have the mandatory caustic “mistake” reply out of the way for this post.
yup, if only the Cincinnati Reds were better at playing baseball, they might have had a chance to win that game.
Really. They only got outplayed in all three aspects of the game: hitting, pitching, and defense. The no hitter overshadows the fact that they weren’t exactly crisp and ready to go.
(And DC has skipped over the fact that the wind probably took more than one homerun (or double off the wall) away from the Phillies, so yeah, it could’ve been worse.)
You’re right. In order to highlight that the Reds were overmatched by an amazing pitcher, Dave totally should have kicked his article off with something like this:
“Last night, Roy Halladay beat the Reds, and they should just tip their hat to him and say congratulations. He threw one of the great pitching performances in postseason history, and no one would have been able to muster any offense against him last night.”
Or you know, something similar to that.
I think it’s more of the “Well, if Roy Halladay WASN’T pitching and if the Reds didn’t suck defensively, maybe they would’ve won so don’t count them out!” tone of the article sounds like a desperate strawman.
Logical people didn’t pick the Phillies to win this series because of a mysterious aura, their winning experience, or because of the ballpark or anything like that, and I think most everyone contested that the Reds had a lineup that was either better or at the least could match the Phillies run-for-run in a vacuum.
The reason people have been picking the Phillies overwhelmingly (right or wrong, it’s something Cameron has expressed disgust with) is BECAUSE of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels having a distinct advantage over Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, etc. Much more so than the lineup. Logical people decided that the Reds had to play near-perfect baseball on the mound or in the field in the event of something like this happening.
And you know what, it happened. That’s why this article sounds so desperate. That’s not to say the Reds can’t knock Oswalt or Hamels around and turn things completely around, but to start an article with “just tip your cap” but then give 20 reasons for why they shouldn’t is kinda lame.
I’d hardly say “disgust” is an appropriate word to describe Cameron’s feelings about projecting the phillies in the NLDS. His article discussing the reds’ merits clearly recognized the Phillies as favorites and deservedly so. He simply wanted to give credit to the strengths of the underdog, and remind everybody that this is the playoffs; no team is a pushover, and no team is a sure bet.
Lets be honest though, Volquez was all over the place the entire game. It was only a matter of time before the Phillies broke through regardless of his terrible defensive support.
I agree, I think it’s rather disingenuous to state that the Reds were closer to winning that game than it looked. Volquez came out there with no command, and in under 2 innings he had given up 2 walks, 4 hits, and 0 K’s. Over that duration, he faced 11 batters and 9 made contact with the ball.
9 balls in play, 4 hits? Sounds like just one more than you’d expect. You can say what you want about being unlucky to have had some bad defensive plays, but wasn’t he lucky on the flip side that Raul’s line drive fell into a glove? If that had happened, you’d have Raul on first, then Ruiz walking, with men on 1rst and 2nd with 1 out.
Either way, that 2nd inning was made to score some runs because Volquez just plain wasn’t pitching well. And this is to say nothing about what might have happened had he pitched more innings. Given his command, he was probably one hit away from a big inning the whole day. You can’t just walk a guy an inning and expect to beat the Phillies.
It’s easy to second guess and say what “might have happened” with some better plays. But on the converse, think of “what could have happened” if Volquez pitched like he had for 5 innings. I’m willing to bet 5 runs, rather than 4. Either in one big inning or in a slow bleed out. (I mean, that’s the expected outcome of 1 BB per inning and no K’s, in FIP). It’s quite possible that the only reason why the Phillies weren’t launching bombs into the seats was that Volquez was saving that for the 5th inning.
With that said, I think the Reds do have two reasons for optimism despite their all around bad game:
1. Tomorrow is a new day. Seriously. At least they can make better plays and maybe their starter won’t be a step away from disaster at all times.
2. Travis Wood. This guy seems to do very well against the Phillies. After his last couple performances against them, I would be very tempted as a manager to have him start instead of Volquez, if it comes to that. Volquez just didn’t look sharp, while Wood pitched 3+ innings, with 1 hit, 1 walk, and 3 Ks. Personally, I’m not sure if the Reds will make it to that point- but if they do they should have a serious decision on their hands.
“…with a bad hitter and the pitcher due up…”
Wilson Valdez hit .258 this season. The league average is .255. His OBP isn’t where we would want it, and he certainly isn’t a slugger, but it is neither fair nor particularly accurate to characterize him as a “bad hitter”.
Beyond the, the rest of the post consists of a fantasy where you get to adjust events in the Reds’ favor. Does everyone get to play this game? Because I’m sure I could adjust events in the Phillies’ favor and turn this into a blowout.
“…they don’t have to face Roy Halladay again until Monday.”
You are an optimist. The Red will be in Philly for four games next May. I expect they’ll get another crack at Halladay then.
.294 wOBA. I do not know how you can call Valdez anything but a bad hitter. Anything else is pure homerism, and your post shockingly reeked of it.
Wilson Valdez is one of the Top 3 SS to play in Philadelphia this year.
I’m going to assume that was a joke.
Well he is…considering the only 3 SS to play for Philly this year were Jimmy Rollins, Juan Castro, & Wilson Valdez. Honestly, he’s easily the 2nd best SS to play for them this year so I could have went with Top 2…
😉
I don’t know. Juan Castro is one HELL of a hitter.
Yah, it’s kind of like that joke where a ballplayer called out an ump and said he was the 2nd best umpire in the league. Who’s the best ump? Everybody else.
More seriously though, Valdez is an atrocious hitter. He is the definition of an all-glove, no-hit SS. Alex Gonzalez, known as a glove man, has a career wOBA that is a full 20 points higher.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s a useful player on the squad and he works hard. But I’ve been watching the Phillies all year, and I cringe to see the guy at the plate with runners on. It’s not just that he’s a bad hitter, he’s also bad at situational hitting like bunting. Plus, he doesn’t even steal bases- which seems incredible, given his agility.
All told, I would rather have Dontrelle Willis at the plate than him.
Crazy stat this year:
Valdez was on the field for both the Perfect Game and the no-hitter. He started at SS for the Perfect Game as Rollins was on the DL and he started at 3B last night with Polly hurting.
# of No-hitters this year:
Wilson Valdez: 2
Placido Polanco: 0
Odd how baseball works, eh?
Wilson Valdez is an awful hitter, let’s not mess around.
And like the article says, Volquez was all over the place, so the longer he stayed in the game the more it was clear he was going to get in trouble.
I’d say awful is more like below the Mendoza line.
As a hitter, Valdez isn’t awful. He’s below average, but let’s reserve the word awful for those who truly deserve it.
With a .294 wOBA he’d be worth 21 runs below average with the bat over a full season. And he hit in Philly, so when you park adjust, he’d be worth a couple less.
That’s…pretty bad.
But I was told that the Reds have the fewest errors in the National League, that means they’re the best defensive team right?
Just kidding, I know they’re a pretty good defensive squad with Bruce & a few others. But every time I hear the error count as a reason they’re good defensively my head is about to explode.
“Despite getting dominated at the plate, the distance between victory and defeat was pretty small.” [Dangling modifier alert.]
The Reds only had one baserunner, and he didn’t even get to 2nd base. They hit four balls into the OF. Even if they’d scored just one run, the Phillies would have been fine. The “if”s and “almost”s here could be said of pretty much any game.
Isn’t that exactly what “getting dominated at the plate” means?
I was referring to the second half of that sentence, not the first.
Seemed like the Phillies offense essentially turned it off once they had 4 and Halladay was dealing.
That’s pretty much what it felt like. They stopped working counts, they stopped fouling the ball off. They looked like they basically wanted to get Doc back out there without too much time between innings.
After the 2nd inning CIN had 1 baserunner, PHI had 3 (with one reaching on error.) That’s pretty pathetic for both sides. It’s probably fair to say PHI just shut it down.
Another of PHI’s 3 baserunners was intentionally walked.
Okay, I think someone familiar with the Reds needs to comment here:
1. The Reds are a very good defensive team except for SS and LF, and, well, you saw how that went last night.
2. Cameron’s right, the Phillies beat the Reds. The Reds can seriously hit. They aren’t the Pirates. They’ll score some runs before it’s over, but last night Halladay was just ridiculous.
3. Bad Volquez showed up last night, but it didn’t really matter. No one was beating Halladay, though good Volquez might have made it closer.
Cabrera has posted a positive (significantly positive a couple times) UZR/150 in 3 of the last 4 years including this season. He’s not a bad defender at SS.
I know he posted a positive UZR this year, but it’s hard to believe. He’s often hard to watch. I am willing to believe my eyes are wrong, but usually it’s the great-looking player who turns out to not be so good (see Jeter, Derek). It might just be that Hudson looks bad next to Janish who is positively fantastic.
Whoops, Cabrera I mean.
I look like an Ogre and am a giant illogical douchebag.
Stay classy, Philly.
Asking Phillies fans to stay classy is like asking water not to be wet.
Funny since no one is ripping anyone here. Raising valid points is completely different. No one has ripped into DC for anything.
“I look like an Ogre and am a giant illogical douchebag.”
You’re correct, this is not ripping into someone. I don’t know what I was thinking. Douchebag must be a _compliment_ in Philly.
Isn’t ‘stay classy’ what you say right before the sweep is complete? It’s way too early for loser talk!
It was classy this year when Philly fans cheered McNabb when he came back in a Reds uniform.
Philly fans this year cheered when Thome came back to Philly. They even cheered a bit when he hit a home run against the Phillies.
Philly fans have the ability to be classy.
There’s just a bit touchy I think when a commentator who is on record as calling Charlie Manuel a senile old man, suggesting that Ruben Amaro is an incompetent General Manager, is supposed to be an unbiased commentator on this game.
Dave Cameron is on record as slamming various aspects of this organization. I’m not sure I trust him to be unbiased about the Phillies. The only aspects of the organization I remember him praising are Roy Halladay and Chase Utley.
What? How is he showing ANY bias by observing that Manuel is senile (if you’re denying that, then I don’t know what to tell you.) and opining that Amaro is not a good GM?
I know Philly has a pretty serious inferiority complex, but give it a fucking break, please.
I’m sorry. I forgot the meme was Manuel was senile and Amaro was stupid. Any evidence to the contrary (i.e. winning ballgames) is done entirely in spite of them.
What was I thinking?
It’s not a meme. Have you watched a Manuel press conference? And who said Amaro was stupid?
Again, the inferiority complex. Just stop.
Yeah, I’ve watched a press conference. Manuel is inarticulate in front of the camera. A lot of people have problems with public speaking….maybe they’re a moron, maybe not, but that’s a stupid judgement to make.
But let’s pretend for a second that you’re right. Manuel is senile. You realize that the Phillies are the winningest team in baseball this year, with 97 wins. A truly incompetent manager might lose an additional 5-10 games for his team over the course of a year. So you’re asserting that the Phillies are actually about a 105 win team over the course of the year? And that’s how many the Phils would have with a decent manager. Get a truly great manager, and we’re talking 110+. This is truly a Phillies team for the ages. If only Charlie Manuel wasn’t the manager….dang.
So the Phils true talent level is 105 wins.
Or maybe the manager isn’t that incompetent. Just sayin’.
This is silly — I haven’t watched every playoff series over the last 3 years but Manuel gets derided more for his decisions on all-star rosters than on managing his team. Good grief, he seemed to have ‘out-managed’ Maddon in 2008, and clearly hasn’t done as much tinkering with his roster in the two series against the Dodgers (HOF bound Joe Torre). Some managers clearly over-think these short series and try to innerject themselves into the games. Manuel at least knows his players well enough to leave them alone.
Manual has been to i think 3 WS now, 2 with different teams. He sounds bad during press conferences — but so what that doesn’t mean he is less intelligent.
And as an impartial observer, I’d rather have Manual than Dusty Baker running things.
Hopefully the Reds can muster some of those “singles” to generate their first postseason hits since 1995.
I also really can’t get behind the “well, every hit that’s not a HR is pure luck” theory taken to extreme levels with this piece. If you’re going to go that route, then you must acknowledge Utley, Rollins, and Howard hitting deep flies off Wood that were kept in the “bandbox” by wind.
The Phillies completely outplayed the Reds in every aspect of this game. It’s OK to acknowledge that.
a better throw from Ramon Hernandez has a good chance at getting him?
Victorino was halfway to third before the pitcher released the ball. The catcher had no chance thanks to his pitcher.
Also, Dave Cameron is dumb.
Besides the huge jump, I think Victorino went for third because Rolen was so far behind the bag. He only barely got to third ahead of Victorino, so even if the throw was perfect Rolen would have had to catch and tag without being set to receive the throw.
Otherwise, with a lefty in the box, it’s an obviously disadvantageous time to try for third.
What is it Crash Davis says? Ah, yes:
“Sometimes you win, sometimes it rains, and sometimes you play Roy Halladay.”
That’s right, right?
The entire point of this post was to review it from the Reds’ perspective. And I think the conclusion was that while Halladay was amazing, it’s not like the Reds played that poorly.
One baserunner and two errors sounds pretty poor
I was at the game sitting in section 136. You say “This isn’t to make excuses for Volquez, who had trouble putting the ball in the strike zone and was pitching behind in the count too frequently.” but you are making excuses for Volquez. Yes his team played poor defense but Volquez was elevating everything. Had his defense helped him in the third it was still going to be a bad result for him unless he found some better command(not impossible but very unlikely).
Their only chance to keep it close enough to steal a victory would have been to start Wood who came in and kept the ball down. Would have been ironic since Phillies stole a victory from him earlier in the year when he pitched 8 perfect innings, but Halladay nearly matched him.
Sorry I typed the third but I ment the second.
Also, I love that Anon judges Manuel on his PRESS CONFERENCES. Maybe it’s you who is senile. I mean, good God.