NLDS Game Two Preview: Cincinnati
Tonight, the Reds try to do something they couldn’t do on Wednesday – get a base hit off a guy named Roy. This time they have to contend with Roy Oswalt, who is not quite as good as Roy Halladay, but is still no walk in the park. There’s nowhere to go but up from their Game One offensive performance, but even still, the Reds shouldn’t count on a scoring bonanza. In order to win this game, they likely need to hold the Phillies to three runs or less.
The man who begins the game with the pressure of stopping the Phillies? Bronson Arroyo, who besides having a “roy” in his last name is not really comparable to his counterpart. His 4.60 xFIP is a better representation of his abilities than his 3.88 ERA, and, well, that’s just not all that great. Especially concerning are his struggles against left-handers. Here are his career splits:
Vs RHB: 2.37 BB/9, 7.48 K/9, 0.87 HR/9 .278 BABIP, 3.64 FIP, 4.08 xFIP
Vs LHB: 2.87 BB/9, 4.56 K/9, 1.39 HR/9, .297 BABIP, 5.21 FIP, 4.95 xFIP
His line against lefties this year was right in line with his career numbers, so he hasn’t gotten any better at getting them out. And, of course, the Phillies line-up is going to be lefty heavy tonight. It’s not a good match-up for the Reds starter.
And so, just like with game one, I’d argue that the Reds best chances of winning tonight involve pulling Arroyo early. You’re tempting fate every time you ask him to get the Rollins-Victorino-Utley-Howard group out more than once. With Aroldis Chapman fresh and the day off tomorrow, I think the Reds should empty their bullpen tonight, regardless of what the score is early. Arroyo gets the first 11 batters and that’s it. If he gets 11 outs, great. If he only gets five or six, well, you live with it.
Once Utley comes to the plate a second time, I’d have Chapman on the mound. Yes, Utley is good against left-handed pitchers, but Chapman is not your average LHP, and the odds of him putting one over the wall are substantially higher against Arroyo. You’re going to want Chapman in against Howard and Ibanez anyway, so maximize the batters he faces by bringing him in to face Utley.
Even though he’s been used in shorter stints out of the bullpen, he’s clearly got the ability to go multiple innings, and I’d try to squeak nine outs out of him if I could. He’s probably the Reds best chance to put zeros on the board, and that’s what they need tonight.
If the Arroyo/Chapman combo gives the Reds five innings and keeps it close, they have a chance. They could then mix and match Homer Bailey, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, and Francisco Cordero to cover the final four innings, getting the platoon advantage in most situations and generally having pretty good relievers on the mound. But, those guys aren’t going to matter much if the Phillies are up by several runs before they even get to the bullpen.
Arroyo’s had a nice year for the Reds, but this isn’t a game where he should be asked to give you too much. If he can get through the line-up once, he’s done his job and should be congratulated. This isn’t a time to reward him for his regular season work, especially not with a bunch of guys who swing from the left side coming up.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
from @redreporter via twitter:
Current #Reds have hit .290/.329/.484 against Oswalt in their collective careers. These aren’t the Reds he has dominated in the past.
Arroyo is such a weird pitcher. His ERA has been much better than his FIP for almost his entire Reds career (and the defense hasn’t always been as good as the one he has now). I typically trust FIP, but that’s a pretty big sample. Then there is his tendency to be either really good or really terrible. I won’t be surprised if he gets blown out of the water, but neither will I be surprised if he has a surprisingly good game.
Side note: It would be really interesting to see a series on pitchers with long careers who consistently had better ERAs than they should have and try to figure out how much of that is luck (some, I would guess) and fielding (a lot, probably), and if there is some weird trait that’s being missed somewhere.
It would also be interesting to see if some of the dead ball era pitchers had a markedly better ERA than FIP.
One of the truisms about dead ball era pitchers is that since home runs were scarce, even strikeout pitchers would generally pitch to contact until the opposing team got baserunners on and then would come with their best stuff.
I wonder if that is actually the case. If so there should be a big crop of “ERA nearly always better than FIP” pitchers from that era. And that might offer some insight on modern day pitchers like Oswalt.
i’ll be bummed if they pull arroyo early. not for any logically sound reason, i just like watching the dude pitch.
I’m bummed he stopped sporting the braids.
This is spot on, Dave. It’s a brutal matchup for Arroyo and the Reds. Arroyo’s going to try and throw every pitch slower than the previous one and land them all on the outside corner, hoping they’ll be called strikes. If he can’t hit the corner, he’ll throw it off the edge and hope they swing. His odds of surviving relatively unscathed depend on the Phils’ impatience. If he’s not perfect and the Phils are patient, it could be 4 or 5 to nothing by the time he faces the 11th batter.
Bronson has been kept away from Philly bats in 4 of the past 5 years-in 2008 he was 0-2 ERA 9.00, WHIP > 2… lifetime he’s 1-5/5.54/1.5…. 11 batters sounds about right
Homer Bailey has basically said that he can’t pitch in relief because he just can’t get warmed up quickly enough. That said, if the Reds chose to go with a pre-planned relief appearance, it would probably be the best chance to get him in there.
FWIW, Ryan Howard is 0-8, 4 Ks and Utley is 1-6 against Bill Bray. For his career, Bray has held lefties to a .244/.322/.364 with a 21% K rate. Chapman is getting all of the attention, and rightly so when we’re talking about a multi-inning stint, but Bray is an absolutely fine choice to get through the dangerous lefties.
I think that the occasion, Halladay’s stuff, and unfamiliarity with a former AL pitcher they barely see in the NL central may have contributed to their demise quite a bit. I think they’ll score more. Oswalt is not as big a complete game threat as well for the Phillies. You talk a lot about how the Reds bullpen compares to the Phillies hitters. How does the Phillies bullpen before Lidge stack up against the Reds?
I like your bullpen strategy. My optimistic prediciton is 5-3 Redlegs.
Madson is the Phillies best bullpen arm by far and is terrific against anybody, but he almost never pitches more than an inning. Romero is okay against lefties but has an abominable walk rate. Contreras is good overall and especially vs. righties but occasionally loses the strike zone, also only good for an inning. Bastardo is a lefty fastball-slider guy with live stuff, questionable control, and a history of getting hurt all the time who will probably be used as a LOOGY but isn’t totally useless against righties like Romero. Durbin is mediocre, especially vs. lefties, but he goes 2 innings more often than any of those other guys.
Blanton is serving as the long man but if it comes to that the Reds have probably already scored enough to not worry too much.
I think this is same strategy that should be used against the Yankees. Get your starter through 5 innings, then use your whole bullpen to get the rest of the outs. Mix and match, get every platoon adv. Get your guys to go in and throw as hard, etc.
will all the days off you really can have a ton of guys available to come in and pitch to one-two guys.
Anyway, Reds problem in my opinion is getting Arroyo thru 5 innings. Their bullpen matches up really well with the Phils, but they need to get to them with the lead, AND dusty baker needs to be smart enough to use them.
If Utley-Howard-Ibanez can’t hit Arroyo after facing him 2-3 times, well, the Phillies will lose (and deserve to).
Phillies can easily get 4-5 runs with Utley and Howard not doing anything. With Polanco back in the lineup there are no easy outs tonight.
“And so, just like with game one, I’d argue that the Reds best chances of winning tonight involve pulling Arroyo early.”
Well, they did pull Volquez early in game one, though obviously not based on a preordained strategy. Arroyo can be pretty bipolar out there. I say stick with him as long as he’s effective and then go to the bullpen with a quick hook. Pretty much the same strategy you’d use with anyone apart from maybe a handful of true #1 aces who are in the playoffs.