Scouting NLDS Game Two Starters

A look at the pitch selection and pitch outcomes of NLDS Game Two starters. See ALDS Game Two starters, ALDS Game One starters, and NLDS Game One starters.

CIN: Bronson Arroyo, RHP: 5.05 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, 3.88 ERA, 4.61 FIP

High-80s four-seam and sinker (39.5%)
Low-80s changeup (25.0%)
Low-70s curveball (14.6%)
Mid-70s hard slider (13.6%)
Mid-80s cutter (7.3%)

The right-handed Bronson Arroyo throws multiple pitches at varying speeds. He’s especially adept at throwing the curveball at different speeds, sometimes categorized as sliders. He uses his curveball against RHH and his sinker against LHH, both pitches that go sharply away from the batter. Arroyo doesn’t get too many swinging strikes, but when he does, it’s usually on the curveball to RHH, his best and most valuable pitch. His changeup is actually put in play the most.

In terms of batted ball outcomes, Arroyo’s curveball induces the most flies, while his changeup and cutter (used rarely) gets the most grounders. Finally, he’s ahead in the count on 30.0% of the time and behind in the count 25.2% of the time.

PHI: Roy Oswalt, RHP: 8.21 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 2.76 ERA, 3.27 FIP

Mid-90s four-seamer and sinker (55.4%)
Low-80s changeup (15.0%)
Mid-80s slider (14.9%)
Low-70s curveball (14.8%)

The right-handed Roy Oswalt throws five main pitches, splitting up the use of the four-seam fastball and sinker evenly. Both Oswalt’s curveball and slider cave in on LHH, while his other pitches go toward RHH. Against RHH, Oswalt relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing multiple fastballs in a row at some points, but mixes all of his pitches up (except the slider) against LHH. His curveball is better used to get swinging strikes against LHH, while his changeup fools RHH quite a bit, a pitch he just added and perfected this offseason.

Oswalt’s changeup induces the most grounders, even more than his sinker. One important split is that his curveball gets far more pop-ups off RHH than LHH (25.0% of curveballs put in play vs. 6.1%). Finally, Oswalt is ahead in the count (34.6%) a much higher percentage of the time than behind in the count (22.0%).

ATL: Tommy Hanson, RHP: 7.68 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 3.33 ERA, 3.31 FIP

Mid-90s fastball (57.0%)
Mid-80s slider (28.0%)
Mid-70s curveball (12.3%)
Low-80s changeup (2.7%)

The right-handed Tommy Hanson throws four main pitches, of which his 12-6 curveball is one of the better ones in the game. Because of the major vertical break on this pitch that is different from sweeping curveballs, Hanson is able to use it frequently against LHH, actually more frequently than against RHH (16.1% and 8.9%). He uses the curveball and slider to get swinging strikes from RHH, but uses his changeup in addition to get the same result from LHH (he almost never uses the changeup against RHH).

For batted ball outcomes, RHH hit grounders at roughly the same percentage of the time against all pitch types. For LHH, grounders come off the slider, curveball, and changeup while flyballs come off the fastball. Sliders also get LHH (16.3% of sliders put in play) to pop-up more frequently than RHH (6.7%). Finally, Hanson has a slight advantage to the batter while working the count, getting ahead in the count 29.6% of the time and staying behind in the count 25.3% of the time.

SF: Matt Cain, RHP: 7.13 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.14 ERA, 3.65 FIP

Mid-90s fastball (63.2%)
Mid-80s changeup (13.8%)
High-70s curveball (13.5%)
Mid-80s slider (9.5%)

The right-handed Matt Cain throws four distinct pitches and relies heavily on the fastball on over 60% of all pitches. His fastball and changeup go toward RHH, while his curveball and slider go toward LHH. Cain throws his curveball against both handed batters, but relies heavily on his slider as the additional breaking ball against RHH and changeup for LHH. For both batters, his slider and changeup induce the most whiffs of any other pitch, but his curveball is good at keeping the ball from coming in play.

Changeups result in grounders more than 50% of the time a changeup is put in play for both RHH and LHH. Pop-ups off fastballs occur occasionally, about 15% of fastballs put in play for both batters. Finally, Cain has an advantage of being ahead in the count (30.6%) more than he is behind in the count (26.3%).