NLDS Game Two Review: Philadelphia
Well, as improbable as it was, this game did not turn out exactly like Carson Cistulli drew it up. Roy Oswalt did not strike out fifteen batters and hold the Reds scoreless, and Scott Rolen did not hit a home run off of Jose Contreras. And instead of two homers, Chase Utley hit no homers.
The funny thing? The Phillies still won and Bronson Arroyo actually pitched as decently as was predicted. What if Sports had Arroyo going seven innings with a strikeout, a walk and three runs allowed on five hits, and he actually allowed two (unearned) runs in five and a third innings with two strikeouts, three walks and four hits allowed. I mean, that’s not bad for literally trying to predict the future down to the hit batsman. Despite the awesome leg kick, and kicking tunes, Arroyo’s stuff was not of the shut-down variety (two swinging strikes all game). He gamed through it, gritting and grission-ing his team to a lead.
Arroyo may not have been as good as the typical game story may suggest, but the task at hand is to think about this from the Phillies’ angle. And really, was Oswalt’s night deserving of so much better? I mean, yes he had better ‘stuff’ and more swinging strikes (nine of them!) and was right around the zone all night (only one walk, and no pitches that were a foot-plus out of the zone like Arroyo had), but he also grooved a few many straight down Broadway. Those home runs to Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce happened, we can’t xFIP them away despite Oswalt having a decent groundball-to-flyball ratio (6-to-7).
Though Jimmy Rollins was oh-for-the-series, and ‘failed’ once again in a key position (one down, tying runs on base in the 7th inning, the third-highest leverage index moment of the game), his soft flyball to Jay Bruce (a +18.9 Right Fielder this year according to UZR) was muffed about a billion times, and suddenly Rollins looks like a hero to Oswalt’s zero. Seriously, Bruce missed a play he should have had 95+ times out of a 100 (or, rather, 256 in 259 times), then screwed up the throw, the relay was punted, and Rollins stands on second with the crowd roaring. Rollins gets a .352 WPA for the play, Oswalt a -.152 for his five innings, three run effort. Sometimes WPA doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Reds, the better fielding team going in, fell apart and made a division-series-record four errors in a game they should or could have won. Or: The Phillies put the ball in play against a Reds’ staff that only struck out four in nine innings – putting pressure on the defense, which lead to five unearned runs and a win. Two ways to tell the story once again, but as happy as the Phils may be, they have to know that a good amount of luck helped them along their way on Friday night.
In another universe, in another iteration of this game, Oswalt pitched a second-straight no-hitter and the Phillies beat up on Arroyo. Same result, I guess. Phillies up 2-0 and a step away from the NLCS.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
It should also be noted that Dusty Baker managed a 4-0 lead into the 1 run game that the Phils ended up turning into the win. Arroyo should have never been allowed to pitch to Utley with the bases loaded and 2 outs in the 5th. It should’ve been Chapman time or Bill Bray time; a lefty should have been in the game. Utley singled in 2 runs and then began the 6th, giving up the walk to Werth. Werth, of course, came around to score a few batters later. The Reds should have been into the bullpen long before they were, as they were playing with fire with Arroyo on the mound facing all those lefties. Terrible managing.
The terrible fielding and pretty bad pitching by the pen may have helped the Reds lose anyway but Dusty helped turn a 4 run lead into a 1 run lead that the Reds were unable to sustain.
yeah struggled with how much Dusty/Reds to write up. Feel like they lost the game more than the Phils really won this one. Arroyo was in too long for sure.
I don’t think he had anyone ready, nor did he really have any reason to get anyone ready given that there were two outs with just one on before the Reds made two errors in succession. And it’s not like the bullpen exactly shined when given the opportunity.
He probably didn’t have anyone ready in the pen but he certainly should have. Arroyo was living on borrowed time, as Dave noted in his preview, and should not have been pitching to Utley for the 3rd time in such a key situation.
As noted below, it may not have made a difference as the pen didn’t pitch particularly well and the defense also let the Reds down but those facts don’t absolve Baker of his obvious mistake.
wellll arroyo was a whole lot better than I’m reading here about and obv deserved a better outcome – he pitched to utley because in the prior at-bat, he made the most brilliant set of pitches that I saw, in a long, long time – just stupid. that said, it was probably time to cash in on the good fortune and go with the more likely match-ups proposed (Bray or Chapman).
Yes he struck Utley out in a great series of pitches, but Utley is one of the best hitters in baseball and he tried to pitch to him in the exact same manner as the first time. Utley was sitting on a change-up inside and got it.
Hey, that’s straight down Broad Street. You’re writing a Philly recap!
I want to hear what Bruce has to say about that liner. As you said, he had at least six chances to catch it and ended up nowhere near the ball.
I’d debate the better fielding team going in part. The dewan +/- system liked the Phils by a good bit over the Reds. So even if you count that and UZR the same I’d say they’re about even.
Minor fact check, in 08 The Cubs had 4 errors in the Zambrano game. 1 by each infiedler. It actually should have been 5 errors but one wasn’t scored that way.
I heard that announcement on the radio though. It was incorrect. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=AlyTt422o0ToEIita1pEERSFCLcF?gid=281002116
is the box score.
Speaking of Dusty, I’m still confused about why he let Masset stay in in the 8th against all those lefties. Masset had a nice reverse split, but considering the fact that Dusty gave away two IBBs to lefties in the inning, you wonder why he didn’t work the pen a bit more. It was already the 8th inning and the score wasn’t tied, so why keep bullets in the gun? Masset wasn’t the last guy in the pen.
Ummm…maybe its because he’s a terrible tactical manager?
lolz well this game was just a big punch in the face of those who said the reds were better in defense, offense and bullpen!
The Phils seem to score more runs on other teams errors than any other team I’ve ever seen. Might just be confirmation bias. Either way, the runs count and now the Reds have the unenviable task of beating Cole, Roy, and Roy in a row on full rest.
“Seriously, Bruce missed a play he should have had 95+ times out of a 100 (or, rather, 256 in 259 times), then screwed up the throw, the relay was punted, and Rollins stands on second with the crowd roaring.”
Wow. Were you even watching the game? Bruce lost it in the lights, but it was Stubbs who threw the ball, not Bruce.
In any case, I believe Bruce’s UZR is totally irrelevant in that case. ANY RF catches that PROVIDED he doesn’t lose it in the lights.
You are correct, Stubbs threw the ball in.
However, his UZR is probably relevant because it establishes that he’s (probably) a very good outfielder, and he (probably) made many similar plays in the lights this year.
I don’t understand why your comment has to be so obnoxious just because of Eno’s minor mistake. Oops, he accidentally stated that Bruce threw the ball to Phillips when it was really Stubbs! Hang him by his toenails! There’s no need for such a sardonic and obnoxious response.
I didn’t think the comment was sardonic at all. I just think that if a writer is going to single out a player in what is supposed to be a review of the game, then a little more care should be taken when describing what actually happened. I realize these posts are written quickly.
Anyway, the writer spent two sentences harping on Bruce’s failure, citing detailed statistics while inaccurately describing what happened. In addition to attributing the relay to Bruce, he left out the (crucial) part about him losing the ball in the lights. I really don’t think Bruce was at fault on that play, and I don’t think the UZR figures are relevant, as we know that Bruce is a good RF, but fly balls getting lost in the lights — those are pretty much anomalies that can happen to anyone. He didn’t face 259 sinking liners in night games at CBP this season with white towels waving everywhere..
This is what I don’t get, scarcastic/sardonic nature aside (and incredulously asking if I saw the game would count in my book): Why do the circumstances of this one play somehow invalidate the statistics that measure how Bruce did defensively all year? I’m sure he made plenty of catches in the lights. I’d bet he even made plenty of catches with people yelling at him and probably even some towels were involved. Most of the time, he made the catch.
My point was this: Bruce is an excellent defender (inserted stats to that nature), but he made a mistake that snowballed into a game-losing moment. And somehow Jimmy Rollins gets the WPA credit for it.
So, I didn’t think it was really such an amazing detail that he lost it in the lights. Even if I had mentioned it, there’s no way that detail invalidates his previous defensive statistics in my mind.
Oswalt gave up 4 runs.
And while he got 6 GB to 7FB is OK, that’s below his 1.25 ratio for the year.
His WPA was deserved, you seem to slant this as though he pitched OKl. 4 runs (3ER) in 5innings is deserving of a negative WPA.
Maybe I did make Oswalt’s game sound better than it really was, but I think I was more comparing his performance to Rollins’. In other words, Rollins was also deserving of a negative WPA, as he went 0-4 for the game.
Ahh… my apologies (reading comprehension issues)
Thanks for taking the time with the explanation (you’re absolutely right about how the WPA discrepancy between Oswalt and Rollins is just a bit misleading)
Baseball is a game of luck. How often does Chase Utley have two errors in the same game, let alone the same inning? (Besides the playoffs, didn’t he have some routine fielding errors last year too?) Is the rest of the game different if Oswalt pitches a short second inning?
Obviously it’s good for Philadelphia the way it turned out. Maybe if Oswalt gets out of that jam, that leads to a series of events in which Rollins makes an out at that critical juncture. Or they never get to such a critical juncture at all. Or maybe they win the game without so much drama.
Aroldis Chapman’s stuff was sort of ordinary (from what I saw of him in highlights) after the first batter or two (though the the swinging strikes to Howard were impressive, as was the Utley at bat, until, it looked like Utley tricked the umpire into awarding him first base). If he’s throwing that fastball at 102 and 103 instead of 97-101, such events probably never happen. Hell, if he actually used his slider more than once or twice, as that pitch working off of one that’s 100 mph seems like it would be basically unhittable.
His fastball, despite the speed, seemed pretty straight. (First time I’ve seen him live.) If so, how’s he going to fair as a starter when mph’s get knocked off?
And was Rollins really deserving of a negative WPA? He hit the ball didn’t he? If the ball was just a little shallower in the field, you would have said it was a worthy hit. He happened to (by luck, most major league batters can’t control to such an extent where the ball is going) hit the ball in the perfect place to cause Bruce’s confusion.
So what if it’s luck? Putting the ball in play did allow runs to score. Just say, if Ryan Howard was up again, then we most likely see another strike out, and the ensuing inning doesn’t happen.
The way that the boxscore treats errors is sort of ridiculous. For one, many many events that are classified as hits should be classified as errors (ie. major league baseball players should really be able to make some sort of play on any ball they can a glove on.) For two, a play in which you reach on an error is not basically equivalent to a strike out. Putting the ball in play has its advantages. The fact that it may be misfielded is one of them.
I think Jimmy Rollins WPA is well-deserved. If he doesn’t place the ball where he did, it’s a completely different game. Why is this play more lucky than all those pitches that Oswalt grooved down the center of the plate and the Reds, while getting decent swings on them, didn’t take advantage of? Why is that more lucky even than the fact that Chapman was not his optimal self to begin with? Baseball is not only a game of skill. It’s a game of chance as well. Any number of small chance related events go into determing the positive or negative outcome of the individual events that make up a game. Of course, there is a lot of skill involved too, but I don’t see why we should be so shocked or discredit it when something obviously fortuitous happens?
I mean, I think I agree with you.
If you re-read my last sentences, I tried to get at my real thesis there, which was that you can tell different stories about the same play or game. Either the Reds made errors and poor choices and lost the game, or the Phillies put the ball in play and put pressure on the Reds – same game, different stories. Either Bruce was an excellent defender that made a rare poor play, or he was a young player in the playoffs for the first time wilting in the lights once the vet Rollins put pressure on him.
Somehow, I still feel that the Phillies might have won the majority of that particular game if they replayed it a thousand times, but in this iteration, it seems the Phils were a little lucky getting the win. Which, of course, part of the game.
I tend to think Chapman was over-gripping due to excitement/adrenaline with it being his first playoff game. (Gripping too hard slows the ball down) Next time, he’ll probably be looser and throwing 103-104 instead of 99-100 like he was last night.
The easiest prediction of all came true though, which was that Aroldis Chapman would easily strike out Ryan Howard.
[Crickets]
Howard certainly looked overmatched in that at bat. But I can’t help but think that if Chapman’s strategy is to continue to pump fastballs past Howard, one of them’s gonna take a long long ride.
I’m surprised there is no mention of the fake hit by pitch.
Or the blown call at 2nd.
I guess when these things happen against the Twins and Rays (those lovable teams), it’s a big deal. When it happens for the Phils and against the Reds you hear minimal mention of back to back blown calls which changed the game.
There’s also noone debating if Utley cheated or if it was bush league.
(no I’m not a Reds fan)
Utley didn’t cheat. What he did is within the rules to the extent that the umpire has to get the call right. His play is no different than Buster Posey making the safe sign at 2B when he knew he was out or an OF showing the ball to the ump to make him think it was caught when the OF knows he short-hopped it.
If you think what Utley did was bush league, you must be a Phillies-hater, a Yankees-hater who is being consistent after calling Jeter’s act bush league or Rob Neyer.
I don’t think he cheated or did anything bush league… just found it odd that when others do it it is debated endlessly and Utley somehow gets a pass? Utley after the game said he wasn’t sure if it hit him. If you are not sure if a 101mph fastball hit you… it didn’t
Also there is almost no coverage of a critical blown call at 2nd on the forceout, when for the last 24 hours all that was talked about was a check swing, a ball/strike call and a SB safe call.
Just seems odd how folks can do a summary of the game and not mention these two critical blown calls by the ump that clearly had an impact on the final score.
What he’s pointing out (and what I pointed out in the SF thread) was the double standard.
Chase Utley faked the umpire out on the EXACT SAME KIND OF PLAY as Jeter. Utley knew for sure he wasn’t hit. Yet who here is killing Utley for “cheating?”
I think Tom (and I) would probably say that all three plays are “gamesmanship” and not “cheating”.
But it’s frustrating to see the media (and the commentariat) largely let every other team off the hook when it comes to “cheating” or “poor sportsmanship”.
Tom, to me the play at second while he was out, it wasn’t such a bad call that there deserves tons of talk. Yeah he was out, but it was such a bang bang play that you gotta understand it. Honestly without it being super slowed down in a replay I thought he was safe.
Same with the call at first in Braves/Giants games. Were the calls wrong? Probably, but were they so bad that people should be killing the umps? I don’t think so.
Why isn’t Arthur Rhodes’ hesitation pitch illegal?
Good teams tend to win ugly games like this. The Phillies played the worst game I’ve seen in a long time and still came out.
The Reds seem like they are just happy to be there this year.