Notes On More Pitching Rehabbers

Beginning last Thursday and continuing through the weekend, several key rehabbers made appearances in the upper levels of the minor leagues. A few might have a meaningful impact on playoff races, while others are scuffling. I dish on eight pitchers below.

Shane Bieber and Alek Manoah, RHPs, Toronto Blue Jays

Shane Bieber, who is in month 15 of his recovery from an April 2024 Tommy John, worked seven innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Friday. He looks ready to contribute to a big league rotation in a capacity approaching his peak — or at least his recent, distinguished, touch-of-grey pre-injury peak. His fastball has averaged 92-93 mph in his three outings at Buffalo since being traded to Toronto at the deadline, and Bieber is operating with surgical command, throwing both his four-seamer and cutter for strikes at a roughly 80% clip in those outings. His almost robotically precise slider command has allowed that pitch to generate comfortably plus miss and chase. He’s Friday’s probable against Miami and seems primed to hit the ground running.

Alek Manoah had the internal brace flavor of elbow reconstruction last year and has made four rehab starts, with the most recent one coming on five days rest with Triple-A Buffalo. Manoah’s fastball is down about two ticks compared to his pre-injury 2024 look; he’s sitting 91-93, has peaked at 94, and has struggled to throw strikes during his upper-level outings. A notable tweak has been made to Manoah’s delivery. His release point hasn’t changed a ton (it’s barely a couple inches higher than last year, but is slightly different), but the way he gets to it has. Manoah now has an elaborate glove raise, as if he’s making a pointed attempt to get his front side clearing with more verve and explosion. Manoah’s glove placement as he disconnects has migrated north over the years, but it’s in a new stratosphere right now. Here’s a collection of stills from each of the last few years, snapped at the moment Manoah’s glove is at its apex:

His slider still has good depth, but that pitch has been limited to in-zone duty during these short rehab outings because Manoah has struggled to get ahead of hitters with his fastball. He doesn’t appear to be in position to contribute to the big league rotation as he and it are currently constituted.

Roki Sasaki, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Roki Sasaki seems very far from helping the Dodgers’ big league roster, as he had a flushable rehab outing with Oklahoma City on Thursday. Sasaki is returning from a shoulder injury, and it seemed feasible that, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year, rest and mechanical polish might at least allow him to reach his peak velo again, giving the lackluster movement on his fastball more room to breathe than it had early this year in the 93-96 mph range. Instead, Sasaki again sat 93-94 and struggled to find the strike zone. I interpreted Sasaki’s 2024 downtick in velocity as more of a blip than the start of a trend. He either needs to throw really hard, like he was in his early 20s, or overhaul the way his fastball moves in order for that pitch to be effective, and I expected he’d be able to do one or both upon matriculation. Instead, his stuff backed up further and has been treading water. It’s too early for complete long-term pessimism and gloom here, but this is not going well.

Robert Gasser, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Recall that the Brewers’ early-season rotation was so bad that it made torpedo bats a topic of morning zoo hyperbole for several days. A swift and successful Robert Gasser return from TJ seemed like a mandatory second half card for the Brewers to be dealt if they were going to somehow find a way to keep their seat at the postseason table. Instead, they’ve had other answers. The pixie dust sprinkled on Quinn Priester and the welcome surprise of Brandon Woodruff’s Comeback Player of the Year-level return from severe injury have made this group pretty deep, too deep for Gasser to crack without injuries ahead of him, even though he looks healthy and has returned to Triple-A, where he worked just shy of 50 pitches in his most recent outing. The Brewers have shortened Gasser’s arm action compared to last year, but his approach to pitching and the quality of his stuff both look comparable to 2023-24 Gasser. He commands a low-90s uphill heater and cutter, then mixes in a slower, two-planed breaking ball and the occasional changeup. It’s the stuff of an efficient no. 4/5 starter currently boxed out by the way the incumbents in the rotation are pitching right now.

Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Contrast Milwaukee’s situation with Baltimore’s. Kyle Bradish would have been an enormous late-season addition had the Orioles been able to stay in the Wild Card mix; instead, he’s returning to a team whose stretch run priorities are to assess young players. Bradish threw 73 pitches for Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday, and while it doesn’t necessarily look like he crushed the conditioning portion of his rehab, his stuff is totally back and really nasty. He sat 95-96 and touched 98, and he consistently buried his two power breaking balls in enticing but untouchable locations. His stuff is easily the best of Baltimore’s starters, and he’s poised to be the team’s no. 1 starter next year unless someone is added during the offseason.

Winston Santos and Jose Corniell, RHPs, Texas Rangers

Both of these young pitchers are on Texas’ 40-man and have missed most of the season with injury. Winston Santos has been out since late April recovering from a stress reaction in his back. He pitched one inning during a Rangers camp game against the Reds on Friday and sat mostly 97-98, with between 17 and 21 inches of vertical break, six-and-a-half feet of extension, and his usual short-action upper-80s cutter/slider and changeup. He looks fully healthy, but if his return to affiliated ball is paced anything like Jose Corniell’s was, he’s still about a month from being stretched out to three or more innings per outing, which perhaps means Santos will wrap the year at Triple-A (the schedule runs through late September) and then head to the Arizona Fall League to pick up innings.

Corniell should be on readers’ radar as a potential late-season call-up regardless of whether or not the Rangers, who are in the “shouting distance” tier of the Wild Card standings and our playoff odds, remain in the postseason race. He threw four innings at Double-A Frisco on Saturday and has yet to allow an earned run since he was activated from complex level rehab. Corniell has sustained the mid-90s fastball velocity he showed in short bursts upon his initial return; he’s sitting 96 and working with plus breaking stuff for four innings at a time. He lacks the prototypical build and athleticism of mid-rotation anchor, but he throws plenty of strikes and, if he keeps throwing this hard, has two plus pitches. Corniell seems pretty likely to be promoted to Triple-A at some point so he, too, can take advantage of that level’s longer schedule to pick up innings. If the Rangers fall out of contention, then I’d guess Corniell will participate in Fall League. But if they stay in the mix and Corniell keeps pitching this well and is stretched out to five or more innings, he might clearly look like Texas’ fifth-best starter two or three weeks from now. To that end, I’ll note that Corniell and Patrick Corbin both pitched Saturday; let’s see if they stay on the same schedule again this week. I’ve bumped Corniell’s FV grade on this à la carte update; he moves up to no. 5 on the Rangers list as a 45 FV.

Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians

A scout source whose Bridge League coverage brought him to Goodyear spotted Daniel Espino working with plyocare balls against one of the bullpen walls at the Guardians’ facility. I’ve since learned from another source that Espino has been throwing bullpens, but I don’t have a firm timeline on his return to live action. It’s plausible his timeline aligns with the Arizona Fall League, but that’s purely speculative. For the uninitiated, Espino was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, but his career has been sidetracked by multiple severe injuries.