Note: if Google spreadsheet below isn’t working, click here for one the author has uploaded himself after having modified only slightly from Szymborski’s original.
With the release last Thursday of the ZiPS projections for the Cleveland Indians, now all 30 major-league teams have been caressed tenderly by proprietor Dan Szymborski’s math computer.
While we wait — as if sitting atop some combination of pins and needles — for ZiPS to be added to the projection leaderboard area here at the site, Szymborski has released a spreadsheet including all the ZiPS projections for 2013.
Click this hyperlinked text to visit the full spreadsheet for the 2013 ZiPS projections.
In the meantime, some observations:
• Highest Projected WAR (Field Players): Mike Trout, 8.0
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
• Most Defensive Runs Saved: Craig Gentry, +15
• Highest Projected WAR (Pitchers): Justin Verlander, 6.4
• Lowest ERA: Craig Kimbrel, 1.57
• Yankees Prospect Corban Joseph: 579 PA, .242/.313/.389, 87 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Why are they not on the leaderboards yet?
A “thanks” would have been probably the more socially acceptable response.
Thanks! This would be even more awesome if it were in the leaderboards section instead of blowing out the bandwidth limit imposed by Google Docs 😉
Mate, this isn’t the rotary club. It was a simple question. Love having the Fangraphs Comment Police around though.
Right, it isn’t the rotary club, it’s just a bunch of people who provide stuff that you really want FOR FREE. The least you can do is be polite.
That was s simple question? You were really just interested in the reason behind the fact that they are not yet on the leaderboards? Apologies then, to me it seemed to be snide commentary.
It was literally a question with no ulterior meaning! I was asking what the process happening right now is. I was not at all trying to say that Fangraphs had somehow shirked a responsibility to me or anyone else.
You broke the Googles, you bastards:
Are you implying that the Googles, they do nothing?
I can’t open this at work, but does this include the defensive ratings, or is it the same that Dan released via Twitter on Saturday?
And yes, thanks!
Thanks for the hard work I have been looking forward to this. Hope to be able to open it soon..Google is slipping
The proverbial tipped oil tanker or conveniently placed truck of ether that exploded the internet superhighway.
CHRISTMAS
8 out of 10 people can’t pronounce Szymborski.
9.6 out of 10 people find ZIPS very useful.
For those that are curious, I will be adding Zips to my projection aggregator as soon as I can download the data and connect all the links and calcs. I hope folks find it useful: http://dockoftherays.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/fantasy-baseball-projection-comparison-tool/
dude, sweetness. Thanks
Kudos to the first person that can get into the google doc and share the pitcher data with me 🙂
Can anyone get this into a CSV or XLS doc and provide a torrent for it? A good self reinforcing network should actually allow us to distribute this without causing google to lie that it’s servers are down. (They are not down, they just don’t like me anymore.)
I created the torrent file, now if only I weren’t so stupid about ways to share it.
This worked so much better on BBTF.
Will career projections be posted?
Thanks.
For entertainment purposes only, the following shows the number of wins that would be projected for a team using Dan Szymborski’s projection of 45 for an all-replacement level team and the total rounded WAR from the depth chart for each team published in FanGraphs.
Note: This is invalid for reasons Dan has explained many times.
Note: The demise of the AL East has been greatly exaggerated.
AL East
Blue Jays 90
Rays 86
Yankees 85
Red Sox 83
Orioles 78
AL Central
Tigers 92
White Sox 84
Royals 83
Indians 81
Twins 65
AL West
Angels 96
Rangers 88
Athletics 78
Mariners 70
Astros 61
NL East
Nationals 92
Braves 87
Phillies 80
Marlins 66
Mets 64
NL Central
Reds 91
Brewers 80
Cardinals 76
Cubs 75
Pirates 75
NL West
Giants 88
Dodgers 87
D’backs 81
Rockies 78
Padres 70
If the Cardinals win less than 76 games, I will construct an altar to ZIPS and sacrifice chickens to it.
76 is *not* the ZiPS win projection for the Cardinals.
I’m aware of that, but still . . . virtually all of his other results seemed plausible.
While I figure out WTF’s going on with Google Docs, here’s a quickie ZiPS spreadsheet. Doesn’t have the DMB stuff or any ODDIBE, but hopefully it’ll tide people over until I can resolve the Docs issue.
http://bit.ly/ZiPS13Spreadheet
Thanks!
Is there an easy way to use the data from this wonderful spreadsheet to create wOBA projections?
thank you!
Hi,
Does anybody know how I could use these projections to make projections for a fantasy league using custom point values? Thanks!
Oh never mind, I figured it out.
Any recommendations on how to use this spreadsheet to draft in a 5×5 roto? Do I just take this spreadsheet, add in a column for ADP and then pick players with the highest projection in the various categories relative to their ADP when it’s my turn to pick? (I’m assuming I can’t go by WAR since I believe it takes into account defense.)
Thanks muchly for the spreadsheet? Is there any chance zMLEs will also see the light of day?
Miguel Cabrera is projected by ZiPs to win another Triple Crown…and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.
How is it done?
Projections through custom point values that is.
Very low projection for # of games for Tulo. You have him in the Chase Utley range for # of games, I think that’s a bit low. I know he probably won’t play 160 but come on.
Strasburg projected to have < 140 innings surprised me
Is this because of an expectation of future coddling?
No, it’s because ZiPS doesn’t “know” that he specifically had Tommy John, just that he has a history missing a lot of games and that he didn’t throw a whole lot of innings last year. It simply assumes, in general, that players who have missed a lot of time due to injury will probably miss more time, that guys who had a short leash last year will have a short leash again. It doesn’t make exceptions or consider particular reasons.
good response… ty
can someone explain to me why these WAR numbers shouldn’t be used to project wins for a team if you use 45 wins as a baseline? i’ve seen this done several different times and it seems solid.
Because ZiPS doesn’t consider actual playing time in it’s projections of players. Ex. Add up all the outs projected by ZiPS for each team and I’m pretty sure it will exceed 162*27 by a large margin.
Sorry in advance because I am sure this has been asked 100 times, but despite all my google searches, I can’t find an answer..
Whether it is through Fangraphs, zips, or through DMB website, does a DMB 2013 projection disk to download (or buy) still get released?
Why doesn’t the ZIPS projections have Holds and Saves?