Of Course This Is How Shohei Ohtani Makes History
In retrospect, of course he was going to do it. On Thursday, Shohei Ohtani became the first player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in the same season, and he did it loudly. His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal game would be among the best single-game lines by any player all year even if it hadn’t simultaneously helped him achieve a feat that no one has ever done before. Sometimes you just have to marvel at the greatness.
Ohtani wasn’t supposed to be at his peak this year. He’s rehabbing from UCL repair surgery and thus not pitching. His two-way prowess has always been part of the Ohtani mystique, and 2024 felt like a warmup for next year, his first fully operational campaign with the Dodgers. But instead, Ohtani reached new heights as a hitter this year. He’s already set career bests for every counting stat imaginable. He’d have highs in every rate stat too, if it weren’t for his offensive breakthrough in 2023 (.304/.412/.654 for a 179 wRC+).
Ohtani always felt like a threat to hit 50 homers – he hit 46 in 2021 and 44 last year — but 50 steals felt like a pipe dream; he’d swiped only 86 total bases in 716 games before this year, and even with last year’s rule changes that increased stolen base attempts and success rates, he swiped only 20 bags in 135 games.
Early in 2024, that trend continued. Across his first 20 games, he stole three bases and hit four homers. No one wondered whether the home runs would come – obviously they would. He also smashed 10 doubles in those games en route to a 177 wRC+. The power is evident every time you watch him play. But steals? Despite his blazing speed, they’d never really been part of his game, and nothing about the start of this year indicated a change on that front.
During his next 20 games, he batted a ludicrous .364/.462/.701, socked seven home runs, and stole six bases. That brought his season total to 11 homers and nine steals in 40 games, a 162-game pace of 44 and 36. Then his hits started to leave the yard at an even greater rate and his steals stalled a bit. By June 30, Ohtani had blasted 26 homers and stolen 16 bags in 82 games, good for a 162-game pace of 51 and 31. Fifty home runs was reasonable, but 50 steals? It didn’t seem to be in the realm of possibility.
One thing I’ve learned in the last half decade, though, is that you doubt Ohtani at your own risk. He beat colossal odds and upset preconceived notions across the sport when he established himself as a two-way fixture in the majors. Scouts thought he couldn’t hit. Then they thought he couldn’t keep doing it. They thought he’d wear down. They thought the first major arm injury would turn him into a full-time hitter. None of these predictions was correct. Why couldn’t he start stealing bases at will?
That’s exactly what happened. His 16 steals through June 30 ranked 11th in the majors, so it’s not as though he was a disappointment on the basepaths, but it was just another amazing thing that Shohei could do when he felt like it, nothing more than that.
Well, that’s what we thought anyway. Over his next 12 games, which took him to the All Star break, he stole seven more. Then he started to steal in bunches. He swiped three bags on August 3, two on August 14, and another two on August 17. He stole 15 bases in August – about as many as he swiped in the first half of the season!
All of the sudden, 50/50 was on the menu. And it never came off it, because he kept his foot on the gas pedal. Ohtani leads baseball in stolen bases in the second half of this season. He’d been flirting with a 50-homer pace for most of the year; the sudden influx of steals was all he needed. To understand how quickly things changed for Ohtani, I like looking at this graph:
The diagonal line is the required pace to get 50 of a given stat in a full season. As you can see, the steals side of the equation was very much in doubt until he got going – and it’s been smooth sailing ever since.
Ohtani didn’t exactly coast over the finish line, either. He’s been roughly on pace to hit 50/50 for the last few weeks, even after an oh-fer in a four-game stretch in Atlanta. When I ran a simulation Thursday morning to attempt to predict which day he’d get to 50/50, the most likely outcome pointed toward the end of this week or the start of next week. Then Ohtani produced perhaps the greatest offensive day of all time: 6-for-6 with three homers, two doubles, 10 RBI, and two steals.
That’s 17 total bases and no outs. Uh yeah, that’s pretty good. Two steals for good measure? How do you even steal two bases in a game where you have only one single and no walks? How do you do it when half of your plate appearances are home runs? It’s outrageous. I love this note from Opta Stats:
Since RBI became official in 1920, only one MLB player has had, over the course of his entire career (same game or not),
a game with 10+ RBI
a game with 6+ hits
a game with 5+ XBH
a game with 3+ HR
a game with 2+ SBThat one player is Shohei Ohtani. He did all of it today. pic.twitter.com/njXOmwHKnm
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 20, 2024
It’s hard to say much more than that, really. Ohtani didn’t just reach the 50-homer, 50-steal mark by grinding out the last few tallies one at a time, inch by painstaking inch. He saved his best for last, putting up literally the best offensive game of his career, and perhaps the best game of anyone’s career, to set the record.
It was his first multi-homer game with a steal all year. It was only the fourth of his career. And it wasn’t two homers and one steal, like the other three had been – it was three homers and two steals. No one’s had that kind of game before, never mind all the other amazing parts about it.
What else can you say? Ohtani is peerless, completely without comparison. He might be the greatest to ever do it. He’s certainly the most singular. Of course he got to this seemingly unreachable milestone with a seemingly impossible offensive outburst. That’s just how he’s always done things.
This game was so impressive that I wanted more. I decided to ask my Ohtani 50/50 prediction model whether he could get to 60/60. I tweaked a few variables, added to his home run rate, and eliminated rest days. It said, essentially, “lol no.” In one million simulations, he never hit nine homers and stole nine bases in the same nine-game stretch. Even Ohtani might not be up for that one.
On the other hand, his chances of getting to 55/55 are surprisingly reasonable. Without any adjustments to my pre-existing model, I give him an 8% chance of hitting quadruple nickels – 55 twice. If I use his second-half pace as a guide instead of our projections, it’s more like 11%. It’s unlikely but doable, which is more than I can say for the game we just witnessed.
But enough about math. Enough about what Ohtani might do to make his feat even more impressive. It’s already a staggering achievement, set in a way that no one else can match. What a player. What a game. What a season. When Ohtani puts his mind to it, anything is possible.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Crazy to realize that if he hadn’t been thrown out at third on one of his doubles, Ohtani would have had a cycle as well.
His first double was mere feet from being another HR too.
And he missed out on an RBI because of a wild pitch.
Regardless, just a game for the ages.
Or if he missed home plate on the last HR.
How good can Ohtani really be, tho?
He only has the same wRC+ as Brent Rooker, who wasn’t even an All-Star reserve.
I know this is sarcasm but, dang, Rooker really is killing it this year. I knew he’s been good but wouldn’t have guessed tied for 3rd in wRC+.
Digression aside, Ohtani is #1 of 20,780 (i.e., totality of MLB players).
I voted for Rooker to make the All-Star team…. (In the voice of “I voted for Kodos”)
a) Rooker totally should have been an all-star
b) Ohtani is +8 runs on the base paths, Rooker is roughly 0
c) Ohtani plays almost every damn day, so he’s got 115 more PAs than Rooker with the same wRC+
I think hitting 1 or 2 for the Dodgers will also help getting more PA.
But yeah, Rooker is playing really well.
Rooker getting snubbed is a travesty, he’s far and away Oakland’s best player. Fans choosing the all-stars is honestly a bad thing, in my opinion, because you get ridiculous snubs like this, also dumb things like Omar Infante and his 48 OPS+ as the starting 2B. The selection process should be the top position player and the top pitcher from each team, via WAR. This way all 30 clubs get represented, and we get to watch the game’s actual best of the best.
Exhibition game. Give the people what they want.
Well, is it the best single-game offensive performance in MLB history? The only other contender is the best 4-homer game, by Shawn Green (6-6, 4 HR, 19 TB).
It’s the most fWAR accumulated in a single game by a batter – .0.71097
Shawn Green accumulated 0.71063 in that game you mentioned.
They’re so close, but the fact that Shohei was chasing a milestone (and crushed it) pushes it just over the edge for me.
Seasonal milestones don’t matter when comparing individual games. Green hitting a 4th HR easily puts him over the edge.
Ok, maybe not for you.
But why did you just throw out that Ohtani accrued more fWAR in a single game than Shawn Green?
Because it really doesn’t matter who was hitting in a better ballpark when discussing who had a better offensive game, only the actual results.
Otherwise, you’d open a huge can of worms over who faced better pitchers, whether or not they had the platoon advantage against those pitchers, whether or not the wind was blowing out, the average game temperature and humidity, who was hitting with more men on base and/or in scoring position (for RBIs), how good the catchers’ throwing arms were (for SBs), etc.
theyre close in war-in-a-game because Green did it in a hitters park i the early 2000s and Ohtani was at Marlins Park in 2024. With that said, the difference between them was HR->2B vs Shohei stealing bases as well.
That probably tilts Green, but it’s close. wRC values a double at like 0.8 runs, and a HR around 1.6, and a successful steal around 0.7 or so, so there’s an argument the steals make up the gap.
wRC doesn’t measure baserunning at all.
Now Offensive WAR does include baserunning, but I’ve always found that it overrates baserunning in comparison to hitting. For example, it really doesn’t make sense for two stolen bases to be almost as valuable as a home run.
Besides, as I said above, only the actual results really matter, not who had a more difficult time achieving those results.
What a coincidence that Shohei broke Shawn Green’s Dodger record for HRs in a season in the same game. Baseball!
Tied it and broke in the same game!
Is the best!
Here I have to – not exactly disagree, but appreciate differently. The thing that stands out about his speed is how much it’s a product of his sheer size and savvy. It’s a little bit like watching Wembanyama swipe the ball away from somebody. “Oh, a big lumbering space alien is stealing second base and they can’t stop him because he’s an alien.”
Statcast ranks Ohtani 158th for sprint speed, below Spencer Steer (25 steals) and Brandon Marsh (17). (He’s only 17th on home-to-1st.) So a lot of it is brains and guts.
Credit to the Dodgers broadcasting crew for pointing out his sprint speed ranking. They also pointed out something else that was really interesting – that the violence in his swing is all in the follow-through, because of how much force he generates.
Ohtani’s swing is what happens when you take Ichiro’s mechanics and add Ruthian force behind them. It’s like watching someone swing a greatsword (Ōdachi or Zanbatou, I guess, since he’s from Japan). Looks utterly smooth until impact, and then there’s a small earthquake.
I wonder how much of Ohtani’s SB breakout is due to superior coaching with the Dodgers as opposed to the Angels, who seem to run everything like it’s the steroid era. It’s not just the number and rate of steals attempted, but he’s only been caught four times in 55 attempts. That’s a huge ratio spike too.
Somebody last night said he’s the exact opposite of Ken Griffey Jr. in that regard, where he would delicately swing and the ball would fly out of the park. You see all the mechanics in Ohtani’s swing, all the violence.
Yeah, I don’t know if I’d call it “blazing” speed — Statcast has his sprint speed at 28.1 f/s, which places him in the top third in MLB (the bottom third is filled with DHs, it should be noted). But his foot placement is phenomenal and I’ve watched him juke guys on the slide to get his toe in. A lot of his steals are close because he’s plotted out details that nobody else thinks of, like which arm the fielder uses to tag and the exact amount of time a pitcher takes from starting his motion to arriving at the plate. Apparently he keeps lists and studies them in the dugout.
Not to take away from Ohtani, but “which arm the fielder uses to tag” is a silly thing to track. There are no lefties covering 2rd or 3rd base which is where the vast majority of close plays will happen.
His legend doesn’t need to include these kinds of trivialities. He also breathes oxygen which is toxic to a lot of things!
Yea, but I really do need an explanation for his absurd stolen base success rate.
He’s fast but not THAT fast. He’s not smooth like Trea Turner. He always slides feet first.
And over the last two weeks everyone knows he’s running.
Without explanation the cynic in me suggests there’s something fishy going on here…. But also it would be near impossible for that kind of meddling/inauthenticity to be kept secret today….
I want to believe this is real.
I need a good explanation!
Seriously, his stolen base success rate despite his non-top-tier elite speed and bulky frame, and everyone knowing he’s going to be running might actually be his single most impressive trait.
He’s not sliding headfirst because he recently had major elbow surgery. He slides good man relax.
Including humans, eventually. Your body is oxidizing right now =D
I like to picture Ohtani, with hyper-diligence, going through his mental checklist every time:
“Is the 2nd baseman right handed? Yes.”
Pitcher’s mentality!
I think you are kind of misusing sprint speed here.
For one, its an avg. He is capable of running faster as he has several “bolts” (a bolt is anytime a runner hits 30 ft/s) in his career.
But probably more importantly sprint speed is determined by “Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding being a runner on second base when an extra base hit happens” or “Home to first on topped or weakly hit balls.” Neither of those situations is all that comparable to stealing bases (especially the first one) so sprint speed probably doesnt tell the whole story. I will give you an example. Pete Crow Armstrong is the 3rd fastest player in MLB by sprint speed (30 ft/s) and Ohtani is, as you said, 158th. But if you look at a shorter distance like home to first its a much different story. PCA is 5th at 4.10 seconds but Ohtani is now 17th at 4.16. And they are both left handed hitters so there is no advantage there. Ohtani is actually faster home to first than Elly De La Cruz (4.20) who is the 5th fastest in MLB by sprint speed.
Sprint speed is also a players peak speed. That is defined as “a player’s fastest one-second window”. Which leaves alot of room for variables. If player A peaks at 30 ft/s but takes longer to hit that peak than a guy who runs 28 ft/s, who is actually faster when it comes to stealing a base?
Luckily MLB tracks players 90′ runs by 5 foot increments. And for this they only use “Home to first on topped or weakly hit balls”, so its more representative of short, explosive speed we are talking about with SB’s.
Bobby Witt’s 90′ sprint splits
5′ – 0.55 seconds
10′ – 0.85 seconds
15′ – 1.11 seconds
20′ – 1.33 seconds
25′ – 1.54 seconds
30′ – 1.74 seconds
35′ – 1.93 seconds
40′ – 2.11 seconds
45′ – 2.29 seconds
50′ – 2.46 seconds
55′ – 2.63 seconds
60′ – 2.79 seconds
65-85′ (you see where this is going)
90′ – 3.76 seconds
Ohtani’s 90′ sprint splits
5′ – 0.52 seconds
10′ – 0.82 seconds
15′ – 1.07 seconds
20′ -1.30 seconds
25′ – 1.52 seconds
30′ – 1.71 seconds
35′ – 1.91 seconds
40′ – 2.09 seconds
45′ – 2.28 seconds
50′ – 2.46 seconds
55′ – 2.63 seconds
60 – 2.81 seconds
90′ – 3.85 seconds
So Witt, the fastest guy in MLB by sprint speed, is actually is behind Ohtani, the 158th fastest guy by sprint speed, for the first 50′. Its only the last 30ish feet where he pulls ahead. In fact over the first 40′ Ohtani is the 19th fastest guy in MLB. Over the whole 90′ he is 45th. That’s the 92nd percentile.
TL DR version; Ohtani’s avg sprint speed may not jump off the page but that’s a bit of a nuanced measurement that lacks context. If you dig deeper he is undoubtedly an incredibly fast human being and one of the 50 fastest guys in MLB over 90′.
Fun fact, Baseball savant lets you pick 5 guys and have a 90′ “race” between them so you can see exactly how it looks as opposed to just numbers on a page. Its very cool.
really great stuff here.
and yeah just watch Ohtani on a jailbreak home to first if you dont think hes “fast” lol
I think it is safe to say Ohtani is the GOAT in terms of talent. Fingers crossed he has plenty of healthy, productive years left to accumulate a lot of counting stats.
If you adjust for strength of opponent yes but Babe Ruth, Joe Rogan and Martin Dihigo were all kind of similar.
Joe has recorded an incredible number of podcast episodes, but let’s not go overboard!
OK but he didn’t have a cool nickname like Bullet Joe
Not the first time I’ve seen that typo in the past couple weeks, lol
I still wonder how Babe Ruth would compare had he been allowed to fully develop into a two-way player.
Or even Wes Ferrell
I saw him play 10 positions for 10 different teams in spring training!
Wait, that was Will Ferrell
I remember his disc in All Star Baseball game I had in the early 80s…he was amazing!
His famously rigorous devotion to athleticism surely would have helped him dominate those farmhands and railway workers in a way that is totally relevant to the modern game.
He is good.
As a Yanks fan who obviously loves Judge, it’s honestly MORE impressive what Ohtani is doing.
Having these two meet/play against each other in the World Series would be the best gift I could get.
The sheer generational talent in that WS matchup. Whew. Judge, Soto, Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, potentially Kershaw… It would be a gift indeed.
Forgetting Cole!
It might be the first WS I stay up until midnight Eastern time to watch.
New doesn’t necessarily mean more impressive. In a season when Ohtani can’t pitch, I’m still more impressed at the overall offensive performance that Judge has put up, stolen bases or not.
Mike Trout is less than three years older than Shohei. They are, baseball wise, of the same generation. So who is the greatest player of this generation? A couple years ago it would have been unfathomable to suggest that Mike Trout might not be the best player of his generation. But here we are, and it’s not only a case that could be made, but could potentially become a slam dunk in the opposite direction if Shohei keeps up his dominance for a few more years.
I like that we’ve reached the point with Ohtani that we’re not really sure how to measure how good he is. It’s just obvious that he is. It feels like people will have to invent new statistics to fully capture it.
Ohtani isn’t at the point of breaking statistics, but he’s certainly straining them.
Granted, he’s not the only one. Witt and Judge have both been absurd in their own ways. Most people alive have never seen a clean season like Judge, and Witt’s doing everything at the level of Hall of Famers from days past. Baseball is wild these days.
Trout is the greatest loser of the generation, that’s for sure
Forget this generation, Ohtani is the best player in MLB history. Full stop.
And i honestly dont think anyone else is particularly close.
It’s him and Babe Ruth. That’s the discussion.
Pre-47 stats are delightful fun facts, but they can’t be taken seriously.
Baseball history. Double full stop..
Trout is the greatest player of the 2010s.
Ohtani is the greatest player of the 2020s.
(Also Pujols was the greatest player of the 2000s and they were somehow all on the same team at the same time)
Alex Rodriguez challenges Pujols for the ‘00s
Well, he had help.
…and that team featuring all three of them lost 90 games in 2019 and was on a 90-loss pace in pandemic-shortened 2020.
Baseball!!Angels baseball! CATCH THEFEVERPLAGUEOn the same team . . . . that couldn’t get to the playoffs!
Ohtani is amazing.
By career value, he isn’t close to Trout (yet). By fWAR:
Ohtani’s best season is 9.2 WAR, which is basically equal to Trout’s fourth best season.
Ohtani’s total WAR is less than half of Trout’s.
Dont get me wrong, Ohtani is an amazing talent. It’s just that Trout is the 30th highest WAR in baseball history.
If Ohtani can stay healthy and productive, he could surpass Trout. It just will require a lot of both luck and skill.
I don’t think WAR is capable of quantifying Ohtani very well.
In his two way seasons it didn’t fully appreciate his contributions on both sides of the ball.
This year the DH penalty might accurately illustrate how his potential value is hindered by him playing through an injury that shut down any chance he might have had to be a plus defender in an OF corner but I don’t think WAR, or any statistic or person, is capable of measuring what a 50/50 DH does for a team.
This isn’t a criticism of WAR by any means, it’s a phenomenal tool, but Ohtani is such a one of one that traditional quantifying methods are going to struggle to accommodate someone this far beyond anything that’s been seen in a century.
If you give Ohtani the pitcher batting adjustment instead of DH for the games where he both pitched and hit he’d get a higher WAR
I think WAR quantifies Ohtani fine. There’s a small amount that is not accounted for (pitcher and hitter combined in one roster spot). The value of that is less than the value of the least valuable person on the roster (as they are who should be bumped off if he took up two roster spots).
My point is that he’s not even close to Trout. His best seasons are close to Trout seasons. His whole career value is less than half of Trout’s. It’s not even close enough to try to measure the value of the roster spot combination as a fudge factor.
If Ohtani is your favorite player, I can’t disagree with that. He’s just not comparable with Trout (yet).
I hope Ohtani combines his best hitting and pitching seasons into one combined season for the ages. That would be amazing to see. We’ll see if it happens.
Its not that WAR doesnt capture Ohtani, its that him doing both hitting and pitching creates weird situations that wouldnt exist if he was just a hitter or just a pitcher. Most notably, the fact he is a DH when he isnt pitching so he gets hit with the DH penalty. Most guys are DH’s because they are just awful in the field so the DH penalty makes sense. But Ohtani is perfectly capable of playing the field (he is probably very capable) he is only a DH because he also pitches so they want to rest him. or, like this season, because he is actually rehabbing from a pitching injury.
If he wasnt also a pitcher he would have played the field this year he would easily be a 10 win player, but he cant because he also pitches and blew his elbow out. So his WAR is kind of artificially lowered because he is limited to DH by virtue of him being both a pitcher and a hitter. I think you could make a real argument that if Ohtani was just a regular player (IE: not also a pitcher and just played the OF) he would actually have a higher career WAR than he actually does. But you would also be losing a top 20ish starting pitcher if you did.
Even though WAR does accurately capture Ohtani’s contributions, its still probably not a accurate representation of his true talent. If that makes sense.
I never put much weight into the 26th man impact on WAR or team value. It’s the 26th man being ever so slightly better, okay fine. Shrug.
It’s more WAR being a tool designed to measure the way a ball player played and impacted a game the way that had happened for 100 years and then suddenly Ohtani comes along and turns that around a bit.
WAR can handle Trout because Mays and Mantle and Griffey all existed before and it was built to observe and tabulated that INCREDIBLE performance. There is no Mays for Ohtani to be measured against (spare me Babe Ruth I’m in the Ottovino camp on that one) so it’s kind of mashing to players into one.
He won’t pass Trout because after he wins the Cy Young next year and his second World Series he will retire from baseball to go play basketball.
If we could award people for comments I would give this comment five dollars
The best comment in here.
Just too bad we have to talk about Trout now in the past tense, he’s cooked. And that’s too bad.
Depending on how Judge ages, Trout might even find himself in 3rd place.
Feel like Ohtani’s arrival might be seen as the Overton event that marks a new “generation,” from a baseball perspective.
Like how A-Rod and Jeter aren’t *that* much younger than The Kid.
At this point I’d put Harper over Trout as well.
As he clubs home run number 51, base-17 fans go nuts. “30-30!!” they chant.
He really did have a great game.
I do think someone had a better day last year – it was a double-header, and he pitched a 1 hit complete game shut out in the first game. And then hit two homers in the second.
Just imagine if Ohtani was capable of doing things like that too!
vs the Tigers.
enjoy those Eagles games this fall, Trout. Shohei is gonna be playing in the postseason!
Did Mike Trout slash your tires or something?
He was apparently responsible for Vanderbilt only winning 6 football games between WWII and 2000?
Ohtani is hyperbole incarnate. You literally cannot say something that is too ridiculous when it comes to him.
If he hit the 74th HR and threw a perfect game on the same day it would just be par for the course with him. Im absolutely dumbfounded by him. Good luck to people 50 years from now trying to explain him.
Goku wears Shohei Ohtani pajamas.
Chuck Norris jokes, but real
I heard he called his shot, too. On the 50th HR.
Also heard he did it for a poor Japanese kid who was dying of cancer.
Tungsten Arm O’Doyle himself!
Absolutely astonishing display of greatness.
And it felt like the most appropriate way for Ohtani to become the inaugural member of the Fifty Fifty Club
And with that, Lindor’s lead in fWAR is completely erased.
Not that we ever should have expected Lindor to win MVP when someone else had a 50-50 season but now we need something else to talk about.
Yeah this nailed the MVP race shut, welded the seams, encased it in lead, and threw it into the ocean. That “race” (I dunno if it was ever much of a race, even before this ridiculousness) is firmly decided.
Let’s just be glad the Ohtani and Judge are in separate leagues this year so that neither of them has to be snubbed.
now THAT would have been an MVP race for the ages!
Judge may yet get snubbed by BWjr!
If Bobby Witt goes nuclear over the next 9 days and somehow gets KC to catch/overtake Cleveland, he very well could win the MVP.
Ohtani is having a great season but he is not even *close* to Judge or Witt.
“Ohtani is having a great season but he is not even *close* to Judge or Witt.”
I disagree. In fact, I have a gut feeling he would win over Judge (2nd) or Witt if they were in the same league. I think the writers would prefer his storyline. It’s in everyone’s best interest that baseball thrives in Japan. I feel like Judge cooling off in September (127 wrc+) would also play a factor. And the stolen base would be overweighted, and the defense conveniently ignored. I think the writers aren’t as swayed by WAR as you or I, and prefer the narrative. We’ve seen equally large robberies in MVP and CY voting in the past, as measured by WAR.
Maybe this is our new something to talk about.
I think it was a question before this, even if Lindor wasn’t the favorite. Now the only question is how much Ohtani is going to win by / if he’s going to be unanimous.
The only game I can remotely compare to this, from an overall achievement perspective, was when Rick Wise hit 2 HR and pitched a no-hitter. So Shohei still has something to shoot for.
Challenge accepted
*Tony Cloninger enters the chat*
He is Goku.
Inhumanely fast and strong, hyper competitive, embraces impossible challenges and achieves them against overwhelming odds…. All while being a quiet, humble, reserved, goofy, happy-go-lucky, goody goody.
Saving the Universe might be next in his post baseball career
If Ohtani grows a monkey tail, I swear…
He also seems to actually get stronger after being hurt
Although, I hear that the original Japanese version of Goku isn’t as much of a humble goody-goody as the English translations make him out to be.
Nope. If anything he’s worse about that in the original translation.
He won the MVP last night. I think that performance is going to sway quite a few voters.
I dont because he was already going to be the near unanimous MVP when he went 40/40. This just makes it absolutely unanimous.
The whole lindor vs ohtani storyline was just something for people to talk about in a year where both MVPs are obvious. There was no world where everyone outside of NY wasnt already voting for Ohtani.
I was on the Lindor bandwagon but I just fell off and got run over by Ohtani’s train. I have always been in awe of Ohtani and then he continues to show me things that raises my level of awesomeness to heights I never believed possible. If he had played 40 years ago and was allowed to actually pitch like starters did then it isn’t beyond belief that he could pitch 250+ innings, fan 300 and add a couple of Cy Youngs to his collection. There has been nothing like him in the long history of baseball and I am very happy to have enjoyed watching him play.
Or the elbow injury would have almost certainly ended his pitching career, and possibly permanently suppressed his offensive ability as well.
Or he would have never been given the chance because Japanese players clearly aren’t good enough to play in MLB.
The author refers to it as “one of the best stat lines of the year” and I am curious as to where it ranks all-time?
Having 3 hr and 2 steals feels almost impossible in one major league baseball game to begin with. Add in 2 doubles and a single and it’s like…what? That would be impressive in the HR derby lol.
Someone above pointed out the closest competition is the best 4 home run game, which was Shawn Green’s 6-6, 4 HR, 2B, 1B. That was in a higher offense environment in a hitter-friendly park, though.
Legitimate question here if we are splitting hairs:
Do we count being thrown out going for 3rd against him? I mean you are talking spliting hairs. The stolen bases have to count for him, so I guess effectively 19 bases and 1 out vs. 19 bases in a better environment.
I don’t really care lol. It’s a super cool thing. What an amazing day.
It depends. There are times when running into the out is ‘correct’ for a batter-runner – the situations where trail runners are supposed to try and advance because if they draw a throw then a run will score uncontested. In those situations, players are coached to continue to advance when they otherwise would not because drawing the throw / starting a rundown etc will let the runner ahead of them (who started with a lead, etc) score freely.
It doesn’t make sense to penalize players for these base outs, even though most baserunning metrics do, because there’s no real way to identify them statistically. But if it applied, I wouldnt hold the out against the player.
True, but that wasn’t the case for Ohtani.
Yep.
On the other hand, he stole bases in the game and that also has some substantial value that might bridge the gap.
“His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal game would be among the best single-game lines by any player all year even if it hadn’t simultaneously helped him achieve a feat that no one has ever done before.”
Among? All year??? How about one of, if not, the best of ALL TIME.
Yeah, I think Ben refers to ‘all-time’ later.
I think this is just one that didn’t get caught in the very rapid editing process.
It’s at worst the second-best hitting game in the history of baseball.
Nobody has Ohtani on a higher plateau than I do but I wish his third HR had come off an authentic pitcher. It is a nit-pick but just takes a bit of lustre off one of the greatest performances ever
He still hit a meatball of a pitch further than his first home run, that’s insane.
At this point, no one should be surprised if Ohtani takes the field next year and wins a Gold Glove on great defensive analytics.
Pitch every fifth day, catch the other four. Cy, Gold Glove, MVP, triple crown in hitting and pitching stats. Maybe the saves title if he’s feeling frisky
Since 2021, he also leads the league in ERA (2.84) among pitchers with at least 400+ IP.
Just unfathomably talented. Greatest athlete we may ever see.
Here’s a fun stat. Over the last 4 seasons at home:
Ohtani leads all SP in ERA at 2.15 – (min 200 IP)
Ohtani leads all hitters with 95 Home Runs
Best offensive game ever? I doubt that. There are other contenders, including all the 4 HR games out there, including one by Mark Whitten that also tied the MLB record of 12 RBIs. Rennie Stennett once went 7 for 7 in a 9-inning game.
My pick would be Shawn Green on May 23, 2002, who had 6 hits including 4 HRs and a record 19 TBs in one 9-inning game, also not making an out.
Seems like either, A, we just say there’s no way he can reach 60-60, or, B, get someone here to write up a projection with roughly a 50% chance of it…
I am happy I am alive and able to see Ohtani’s exploits. However, with many nominating him for best all-time game for a hitter, nobody has mentioned the only other player and game in contention with Shoei (Sorry, Green loses out because of the accompanying achievements of Shohei’s game): Reggie Jackson in the 6th and final game of the 1977 WS, when he hit homeruns in each of his last three at bats, all on the first pitch. Yanks were losing to the Dodgers when RJ hit his first homer, which put NY in the lead for good. Considering the stage, I have yet to decide which game should be considered “greater”.
We’re talking about “best,” not “greatest.” As such, neither Ohtani’s nor Jackson’s seasonal achievements matter. A measly 3 HRs as his only 3 hits plus a walk (and no SBs) isn’t even the conversation with either Green or Ohtani.
Although, it does rate highly among most other 3 HR games, as he also didn’t make an out.
Ohtani’s a great player but it’s incredible how much people overrate someone who’s on pace for an 8.0 WAR season and is 5th in fWAR and 3rd in WRC+ this year, especially considering Judge is probably actually probably the best player in the history of baseball and is having a vastly better season.
Also incredible how few people have caught on after Acuna’s 40-70 season and Trea Turner setting the record for most SB’s w/o caught steal by 7 SB’s last year.
Judge is cool and all, but “best player of all time”? The New York sports media really did a number in ya my dude.
He has 2 amazing seasons, several “very good” and is already on the wrong side of 30. Idk that Judge is even the best in the league NOW (The rumors of Mike Trout’s death are greatly exaggerated).
He has the 21st and 48th (and counting) best seasons and vastly underperformed his xwOBA last year (w/ expected number in line w/ 2 surrounding years) while still playing at a 7 WAR pace.
We’ll see how he ages but for the last 3 years he’s been a legit 200+ WRC+, 10-11 WAR player.
I was with you on Trout but I’m pretty iffy going forward on him at this point, and besides that he was never quite at that level for an extended period of time (more 9-10 WAR w/ peaks in 2012 & 2018), though he probably would’ve been that or better if allowed to run & field to his full ability.
Regardless, for as great as Ohtani is he’s definitely not at that lvl as a hitter or even two ways unless he both pitches and hits at peak & is healthy.
9.2 WAR in his highest season so far and contrary to popular belief he probably actually comes in well below that b/c he DH’s full time (look at the recent article on him vs Lindor) and requires a 6th SP when pitching. Extra roster spot’s irrelevant for that reason. Also 9 WAR in 650 PAs+ 150 IP isn’t the same as 9 WAR in 650 PAs, especially when he requires the 6th SP anyway taking starts away from other top SP’s.
Even when he was young and healthy, Trout wasn’t anywhere near as good offensively as Judge has been this year or in 2022, and I highly doubt Trout’s defensive advantage makes up for it.
Even if Trout does have a fully healthy season next year, he’s a couple of years older than Judge and with a body that has had to overcome several injuries over the last few years.
WAR unfairly penalizes him too much for playing DH while actually providing neutral defensive value.
wRC+ doesn’t include baserunning.
That’s not how positional adjustments work. It’s impossible to provide negative defensive value except relative to other people. Even a below average SS is providing some absolute value in comparison to no one being there, or the vast majority of people being there. Same goes for any other position. Everyone’s in an absolute sense only making outs and saving runs. They’re only costing runs relative to the very few people who can field better.
Defensive adjustments don’t mean 1B or LF cost runs, it means relative to the average position they save fewer runs. From there they adjust based on individual player performance.
In contrast DH literally provides no absolute value as a fielding position. The negative value isn’t absolute, just relative to every other position where players provide some positive defensive value.
CITATION BADLY NEEDED
He’s currently on pace for his second 11 WAR season in 3 years, and has the 10th and 17th best WRC+ seasons of all time.
There have been 26 total 11 WAR seasons. They are:
6 Ruth: Probably discounted b/c of how long ago
3 Bonds: Roids plus inflated by tons of IBBs, which we now know are mostly worse than just a great hitter.
1 Gehrig: Same as Ruth
2 Ty Cobb: Same
3 Hornsby: Same
1 Wagner: Same
1 Jimmie Foxx: Same
3 Ted Williams (all pre-integration: 41, 42, 46)
2 Mantle (1956 & 1957)
1 Yaz (1967)
1 Musial (1948)
1 Joe Morgan (1975)
There’s also Mays 62-65 with 4 straight ~10 WAR seasons.
Judge: 1 (projected for 2nd).
Depending on how you grade 50s, 60s, 70s talent vs today the last 3 years he’s been either clearly the best player since 62-65 Mays or 56-57 Mantle or the best player of all time not adjusting for era.
Also worth pointing out as much attention as 1947 pre- and post- segregation gets it took until mid-70s for black MLBers to peak as % of total player pool & 90s for % of Latino players to explode. So 50s and 60s were still much whiter than today (80-90% vs 60%), which maybe speaks poorly of talent lvl.
Trout’s best couple seasons (2012 and 2018) were at this lvl even though he missed the 11 WAR mark (2012 b/c of being promoted in late April and 2018 b/c of injury) but he was never consistently at this lvl.
Well, now 52/52. Just unreal. Can’t believe we are able to witness this in real time.
53/55 with 6 games left… 3 of them being at Coors
Not sure if it has already been noted, but 10 RBI in the leadoff spot breaks the old record of 8…
Thats also kind of a meaningless record because for 100 years or so lead off hitters were pretty terrible hitters. Or at least they werent hitting for power which is how you drive in a ton of runs. Its only in the last decade or so that teams have realized that your best hitters should probably be hitting at or near the top of the order.
LIke 40 years ago the idea of Ohtani hitting anything other than 4th in the order would be seen as insane.
I’m not going to defend the record, but I will point out that even if you are a great hitter, batting leadoff is still likely to mean that the hitters ahead of you aren’t very good and won’t get on base very often…
Yes the DH means that the pitcher isn’t batting ahead of the leadoff guy
2024 Ohtani, 2024 Judge, or anyone from the field 2024?
53/55 with five games to go. Also at 391 total bases and 94 XBH, so he has a shot at 400 TB and 100 XBH, too.
Wild that this was three days ago and Ohtani is already at 53/55.