Offseason Notes
It’s hard to tell if this edition of Offseason Notes is more large or more in charge.
SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT, the metric that’s “sweeping” the “nation.”)
Notable Changes
Leslie Anderson joined the top 10. He’s a 28-year-old Cuban defector who split his 2010 between three levels in the Rays system, finally ending up with Triple-A Durham, where he did this in 129 PA: .328/.359/.418 (.380 BABIP), .346 wOBA, 100 wOBA+. Anderson also won the AFL’s Rising Stars Game on Saturday with a walk-off homer.
SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Same verse, very similar to the first.
Notable Changes
Kam Mickolio joined the top 10. Here’s the thing I know about him: he weighs about the same as, but is two inches taller than, NBA big man Jason Maxiell. Here’s the other thing: the year 2010 wasn’t so kind to him. Here’s his AFL line so far: 9.0 IP, 12 K, 2 BB, 1 HR.
On Scott Barnes
Cleveland prospect Scott Barnes was on the top of the SCOUT leaderboard at the end of last week, and, after a four-inning appearance versus the Peoria Saguaros, maintains that spot. Here’s the 23-year-old lefty’s line against the Saguaros: 14 BF, 4.0 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 6:1 GO:AO. So, not dominant, but solid. Resident Prospect Maven Marc Hulet rated him 10th in the Cleveland organization prior to the season, saying of Barnes, “he’s probably higher on this list than on most Indians Top 10 prospect charts, but he’s a solid left-handed pitcher with average stuff.” John Sickels called him a “strike-throwing deceptive lefty” in January. If anything can be said of Barnes for sure, it’s that former Harvard President Charles William Eliot would almost certainly not approve of him.
Another Cistulli Heard From (Rumors and Transactions)
St. Louis: Outright Pagnozzi
Matt Pagnozzi will very likely not be Cardinal in 2011. If Dan Moore is excited about it, so should the rest of us be.
Notable Projections
Beloved Pole Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for both Pittsburgh and San Diego. Besides the numbers, do take a minute to experience Szym’s comments on the Pirates, which are wildly off-color.
Here are some of the notable projections from the recent ZiPS projections (all numbers assume major league competition):
• Tony Sanchez, 23, C, PIT: .269/.353/.390, 99 OPS+. He was a slightly controversial pick at fourth overall in the 2009 draft, but this is a pretty favorable projection.
• Ross Ohlendorf, 28, RHP, PIT: 25 G, 25 GS, 139.3 IP, 16 HR, 49 BB, 96 K, 4.13 ERA, 98 ERA+. This makes him Pittsburgh’s ace.
• Tim Alderson, 22, RHP, PIT: 25 G, 24 GS, 120.0 IP, 20 HR, 44 BB, 57 K, 6.23 ERA, 65 ERA+. So far, the Giants have won this trade, which saw Freddy Sanchez go the other way.
• Chase Headley, 27, 3B, SD: .274/.342/.418, 110 OPS+. The most notable thing is that Headley’s line is worth a 110 OPS+, owing to the cavernous and unfriendly PETCO park.
• Mike Baxter, 26, COF, SD: .259/.328/.397, 101 OPS+. I actually saw Baxter play in Portland a bunch. He’s a little funny-figured, but ZiPS still has him as average in the outfield corners. Has receive only 9 PAs in majors.
• Kyle Blanks, 24, LF, SD: .222/.321/.370, 92 OPS+. Come on, ZiPS, that’s not cool.
• The Whole San Diego Bullpen: Negative ERAs.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Wonderful work, but truly, the only thing I could think was….
Leslie Anderson? Is that really the name of a Cuban defector and baseball prospect? Sounds like the name of Miss Tennessee, circa 1985.
Kind of reminds me of Charles Taylor. Is that really the name of a power mad crazed African dictator? Sounds more like a gym teacher.
Both guys need a name change more suited to their line of work.
Yeah, like Aroldis Chapman or Adeiny Hechevarria
Negative ERA indeed, and yet I’ll still put money away for them to make the playoffs (the reservation system) and they’ll dissappoint me.
clearly not the right place for this, but hopefully someone sees it and addresses it. WAR is the wins above replacement, where a team of replacement players will win 25 games/year. According to this site’s stats, the 2010 mets were cumulatively +16.8 WAR, for a projected total of 41.8 wins. Since this isn’t even close to what happened, what am I missing?
(by the way, this same analysis holds true for any team – the yankees, for instance, were +32.7, for a total of 57.7 wins)
Based on actual wins, I’d have to assume (using the mets numbers) that a replacement team would win 62 or so games, although using the brewers numbers (+29.1, 77 wins) you’d assume a replacement level competence of 48 wins and using the diamondbacks (24.7 WAR, 65 wins) you’d assume 40 wins as a baseline.
Does WAR actually predict team success, and if not, how is it actually measuring wins?
I can’t give you the full technical breakdown, but 25 wins per year for a r-level team is way too low.
1) Replacement level is near 48 wins or so I think
2) This fails to add pitcher wins (you’re only using position player wins)
yep, the other guys here have it right. the replacement level of wins that fangraphs uses is 48. so, add the 16.8 hitting WAR the mets have to the 13.6 pitching WAR they have and then add that to 48. 48+16.8+13.6=78.4, which is pretty close to the 79 wins they ended up with.
war has its flaws, but it does tend to match up pretty well to the teams end of season win/loss record.