One Failure After Another

NEW YORK — About 45 minutes after the “best team” that Aaron Boone has ever managed was eliminated from the playoffs, several of its members sat in the clubhouse drinking a few small beers. The mood was wistful, the somber finality of it all floating through the very same air that less than a week earlier had reeked of celebratory champagne.

They had just lost the American League Division Series to the Blue Jays in four games, and for the most part, it wasn’t all that close. Despite an all-time great postseason performance from Aaron Judge following yet another all-time great regular season from him, New York was thoroughly outplayed by Toronto. Boasting the most annoying opposing lineup in baseball, the Jays peppered pitchers with their all-fields approach and their refusal to swing and miss. Theirs was a Boomer’s more-than-platonic ideal of an offense – they had the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) and the highest batting average (.265) in the majors this season — but it wasn’t a true throwback. The Blue Jays weren’t dependent on the long ball, but they were more than capable of hitting home runs, as we all saw during the ALDS. As a team, Toronto slashed .338/.373/.601 for a 168 wRC+ across the four games. Yankees pitchers struck out 23.7% of the hitters they faced during the regular season but just 14.9% of the Blue Jays who batted in the series.

“They beat us this series,” Boone said. “Simple as that.”

Yet even as the Yankees accepted their fate, that they had played their last baseball game of the season, they were still trying to understand how it all went wrong. Hadn’t they addressed their shortcomings from a year ago, when they lost to the Dodgers in the World Series? They lengthened their lineup, improved their baserunning, and enhanced their rotation during the offseason, and then ahead of the trade deadline, they made more moves designed to shore up their defense and bolster their bullpen. Some of those deals didn’t pan out, but many of them did.

“I feel like we were a complete team up and down the lineup, just a great offensive team, guys that can put the ball in play, hit it out of the park,” Judge said. “Just tough at-bats one through nine. Starting rotation we had going into it, those first three especially, it’s a lethal combo we had up there. I liked our chances. I liked our chances all year. It was a special group.”

He had good reason to believe. This was the most complete Yankees roster since at least his rookie season in 2017, the last year before Boone became manager. These Yankees had the best offense in the majors (119 wRC+); they scored the most runs (849), ran the highest OPS (.787) by 19 points, and accumulated the most WAR from their position players (34.2). Their starting pitchers ranked second in the American League in ERA (3.61), third in FIP (3.92), and fourth in WAR (13.5). They still produced negative value on the bases, but their -4.7 BsR was so much better than last year’s -17.2, which was the worst in the majors by three runs.

Why was that not enough? What were they still missing? And how can they fill in their remaining roster holes to ensure that next year doesn’t end in failure? These are the questions the players fielded in the home clubhouse for over an hour. They couldn’t quite answer them.

“It’s tough to say right now,” Judge said. “Once I review the season, kind of go through it, I might have a better answer for you.”

“That’s the thing. Didn’t feel like anything was missing,” outfielder Cody Bellinger said. “Got beat in a five-game series. They played well, played really well, and continued to put pressure on us. That’s the thing, I don’t feel like it was missing anything.”

“I mean, I’m sure there’ll be a lot of sleepless nights thinking, tracking back and stuff like that,” shortstop Anthony Volpe said. “But I mean, right now I don’t have anything.”

There is nowhere in professional sports where the glory of the past hangs over the present more than Yankee Stadium, mainly because no professional sports franchise has experienced more glory in the past. The ghosts of Monument Park that Judge said kept his game-tying home run fair in Game 3 are also responsible for the enormous expectations placed upon this team every year. “World Series or bust” isn’t a rallying cry — it’s a job requirement. And for the last 16 years, it’s been one failure after another.

To understand why they are currently enduring a stretch that is tied for their longest run of failure in the history of the franchise, the Yankees need to look beyond their Division Series loss. It’s true that the Blue Jays were so locked in at the plate that even if the Yankees had played clean defense, hit with runners in scoring position, and executed some of their pitches better, Toronto probably still would have won. But it’s also true that the series exposed several flaws that the Yankees need to fix this offseason.

Their most glaring weakness moving forward is Volpe. The 24-year-old shortstop took major steps back in his development this season. He’s not progressing at the plate, and his defense has deteriorated. Some of his struggles may have been tied to the partially torn labrum in his left shoulder that he played through for most of the season, but it would be foolish to cite the injury as a reason to ignore all of the evidence in front of us. After three consecutive years of an on-base percentage below .300 and a wRC+ between 83 and 87, the Yankees can no longer expect Volpe to turn into an offensive force. Among the 229 players who’ve made at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of the 2023 season, Volpe ranks 206th with an 85 wRC+.

Yes, he had a solid postseason last year, and yes, he hit a home run in this year’s Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, but he also recorded just one hit during the Division Series and finished on an 0-for-13 slide with 11 strikeouts. And the thing is, you don’t need numbers to recognize that Volpe has been overmatched more often than not so far during his career. His swing is too long, and it still appears that he has no idea what type of hitter he should be. Now, he hits for enough power and runs the bases well enough that you can tolerate his low OBP and high strikeout rate so long as he is playing strong defense. At the start of the postseason, Esteban Rivera broke down Volpe’s fielding, and explained why the shoulder injury might have been responsible for his defensive decline; it wouldn’t be surprising if Volpe returns to form next season. Yet at the same time, it’s fair to wonder if Volpe’s 2024 season, when he put up 3.5 WAR with a combination of excellent defense and not-as-terrible offense, represents his ceiling.

The Yankees would surely take a 3.5-WAR season from their shortstop moving forward, but there’s no guarantee that Volpe will do that again. And if his actual ability is closer to what we saw from him in 2023 and 2025, rather than what he did last season, the Yankees risk getting near replacement-level production from one of the most important positions on the field.

The problem is, the Yankees don’t have many other options at shortstop. Deadline acquisition José Caballero is a capable shortstop, but the Yankees like him better as a utilityman and pinch-runner. George Lombard Jr., their top prospect who came in at no. 15 on our updated Top 100 list, is a shortstop, but he’s probably still at least another year away from reaching the majors. Bo Bichette is the only pending free agent who’d represent an upgrade over Volpe at the position. They could get creative and try to swing a trade, but because it’s so hard to find a quality shortstop, the teams that have one aren’t likely to give theirs away. Maybe the new Nationals regime would consider trading CJ Abrams, but otherwise, I don’t expect a shortstop to be available in trade. Really, the Yankees had their chance to add a shortstop from outside the organization over the last four offseasons, but they put their faith in Volpe, and now that window has closed. They’ve stuck by him, and now they’re likely stuck with him.

The Yankees’ defense as a whole also regressed this season. Some of that is because they didn’t get the boost from Volpe that they did in 2024. However, they also saw a decline at catcher. Austin Wells still did the bulk of the catching, but the Yankees traded away backup Jose Trevino, an excellent defensive backstop, and covered his innings with Ben Rice and J.C. Escarra.

It wasn’t all bad; the Yankees received negative value at third base over the first four months of the season, but they traded for elite gloveman Ryan McMahon to handle the hot corner. New York also greatly benefited from having Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second base over Gleyber Torres, and from having Aaron Judge back in right field over Juan Soto.

Speaking of Soto, the Yankees don’t have to worry about a player of his caliber departing in free agency this winter, but they do have a handful of key contributors who are set to hit the open market come November, including three of the players they brought in to re-create Soto in the aggregate: Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Bellinger, who, according to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, plans to opt out of the final year of his contract and try to secure a lucrative long-term deal. The Yankees want Bellinger back, and he has said he would like to return. He is coming off his best season since 2019, when he won the NL MVP award, but his 4.9 WAR this year likely represents a new norm rather than a second spike leading to another precipitous regression. As Davy Andrews wrote last month, Bellinger’s 2025 performance was a continuation of his evolution over the last three seasons. He’s not quite a superstar, but he’s a reliable four- to five-win player who plays all three outfield positions in addition to first base.

Bellinger is going to cost a lot of money, probably signing for an average annual value somewhere above the $25 million option he turned down for five or so years, though I think $30 million would be excessive unless he signs a shorter-term deal. ZiPS would offer him a five-year, $128.6 million contract, though considering the limited outfield options in free agency, I’d expect him to sign for somewhere in the $130 million to $135 million range, which would put him between $26-27 million per year.

Center fielder Trent Grisham, the other player the Yankees received from the Padres in their trade for Soto in December 2023, is also a pending free agent, and his future in pinstripes feels less likely. He’s coming off a career-best season in which he slashed .235/.348/.464 with 34 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 3.2 WAR. That offensive performance corresponds with his 87th percentile ZiPS projection entering this season, and now ZiPS, which has always been high on Grisham, projects him for a similar .228/.336/.452 line with 26 home runs, a 130 OPS+, and 3.3 WAR.

But Grisham’s defensive metrics are concerning. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Grisham was one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball this season. Defensive metrics are notoriously noisy from year-to-year, but Grisham’s slide could be tied to his declining sprint speed. In 2022, when he won his second Gold Glove and was worth 13 OAA, 10 FRV, and 10 DRS, he registered a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second. His speed dropped by more than two feet per second this season as his defense cratered (-2 OAA, -3 FRV, -11 DRS). I’d be concerned about giving Grisham a long-term contract given his limited track record and his diminishing defense and speed, but he could make for a decent fallback option if Bellinger signs elsewhere.

Interestingly, ZiPS would offer Grisham and Bellinger similar contracts, with Grisham’s coming in slightly lower at five years and $125.2 million. Given his superior defense and positional versatility, I think the Yankees would rather have Bellinger, even if he costs a bit more.

For as good as the Yankees lineup was this season, the lack of thump during the ALDS made clear that, after losing Soto to free agency, it was missing a second offensive force to go along with Judge, especially because Giancarlo Stanton never really got going. With that fresh in our minds, there will probably be some buzz this offseason about whether the Yankees should sign right fielder Kyle Tucker, perhaps as an alternative to Bellinger. Tucker is an MVP-caliber talent when healthy. He hits for power, gets on base, runs the bases well, and plays strong defense. What he does not do is play center field. He hasn’t played another outfield position since 2021, when he logged 28 innings in center. That’s not to say he couldn’t do it, just that he hasn’t, and it probably wouldn’t make sense to run him out there. The Yankees could move him to left, with either Bellinger or Grisham in center if they re-sign.

The team also has Jasson Domínguez and prospect Spencer Jones as options in the outfield if it doesn’t bring back its two free agent outfielders, though each player comes with limitations. There’s also the possibility of moving Judge, who turns 34 in April, back to center, but the Yankees shouldn’t consider that a viable option. Judge is coming off a season in which he dealt with a right elbow injury that limited him to DH duties for a stretch in August and affected his throwing even after returning to right. He said after Game 5 that he didn’t know what type of procedure, if any, he’d need this offseason, but even if his arm is back to normal in time for Opening Day, center field is a more physically demanding position and his defensive metrics are much worse there.

Tucker is a year and a half younger than Bellinger, and at his best is a better player, so he’s presumably going to sign for a good bit more than what Bellinger ends up getting. ZiPS sees Tucker as being worth a six-year, $170 million contract. That’s less than what I’d expect his market to be, so I asked Dan Szymborski to run a contract value based on Tucker hitting his 75th-percentile projection as a Yankee, which bumped his value up to eight years and $273 million, or an AAV of $34.125 million. That seems more representative of where his market will be.

The Yankees are set to have a few of their larger long-term deals come off the books in the course of whatever contract Tucker ends up signing; they surely can afford to sign him, but adding both him and Bellinger might be too expensive. Right now, RosterResource projects the Yankees to finish this year with a luxury tax payroll just under $295.7 million, which would place them well above the third threshold, and as they’ve had to pay the tax for three-plus years now, their overall tax penalty is looking to be about $38.7 million. According to Jon Becker, next year the Yankees have a projected luxury tax payroll of about $261 million — excluding Bellinger but including reliever Tim Hill, who has a $2 million club option — which is well above the first tax line of $244 million and only $3 million shy of the second; they’ll almost certainly go above that. The third threshold is $284 million, and the fourth and final one is $304 million, so they’d have quite a bit of room before bumping up against those, but the money adds up quickly. Let’s say they sign Bellinger for $27 million per year, and then add Tucker for $30 million annually. Their payroll would climb to $318 million. I doubt Hal Steinbrenner would want to go that high, especially because that does not include whatever hefty tax penalties they would owe.

I think the most likely scenario would be the Yankees’ re-signing Bellinger to play center and using Domínguez as their everyday left fielder. Domínguez lost playing time as the season wore on because of the emergence of Grisham as an everyday player, and because of some awful defensive metrics in left field. However, it is worth mentioning that this was the first time Domínguez was getting extensive reps in left, a notoriously difficult position to play at Yankee Stadium, and that it was his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. He won’t turn 23 until February, and his tools remain tantalizing.

Of course, any talk of tantalizing tools and the Yankees must include Jones. He’s a 6-foot-7 outfielder with 70-grade raw power and a frightening amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Sound familiar? That was also the prospect profile of Judge, except Jones is running much higher strikeout rates in the minors than Judge ever did, which is ultimately what concerns our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen.

When I asked Eric about Jones recently, he said Jones has “too much swing-and-miss to count on him for a long-term role. Nobody has a contact rate that low and actually succeeds for a prolonged stretch. A Franchy Cordero type. I wouldn’t consider him a solution if Grisham and Belli leave.”

Eric does not see Domínguez as a viable option in center field, which limits what the Yankees can do this offseason, especially if they fail to re-sign Bellinger or Grisham. After those two, the best free agent center fielder is Cedric Mullins. The defensive metrics are mixed on him, with OAA favoring him and DRS down on him considerably, and his offense has settled in right around league average since his career year in 2021. Otherwise, as at shortstop, their best external fallback options would have to come via trade. The good news is that there are more outfielders to go around. Some of the center fielders who could possibly be available include Luis Robert Jr., Brenton Doyle, Jacob Young, Alek Thomas, and Chas McCormick.

The Yankees got lit up by the Blue Jays in the ALDS, but their pitching is actually in pretty good shape heading into 2026. Although Max Fried faltered in Game 2, he had an excellent first season with the Yankees after they signed him to an eight-year, $218 million contract, the largest deal ever for a left-handed pitcher. Behind him is Carlos Rodón, who has added to his repertoire and become a more complete pitcher after a rough first season in New York in 2023. Cam Schlittler looks like an emerging ace whose development is still in progress. His fastball velocity sat in the low-to-mid-90s prior to 2025, but after working on his mechanics to become more efficient at Double- and Triple-A during the early months of this season, his velocity shot up into the upper-90s and held there. He didn’t hit 100 mph until his major league debut on July 9. The Yankees also have Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year who missed the first four months of the season with a lat strain, and Will Warren, who entered 2025 as our 73rd-ranked prospect. Despite an inconsistent rookie year, Warren finished 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, a 4.07 ERA, and 2.1 WAR in 33 starts (162 1/3 innings).

And then there’s Gerrit Cole, who had Tommy John surgery on March 11 and missed the entire season. He’s currently on schedule to be back in mid-to-late May, though the state of the rotation should allow the Yankees to be cautious with his rehab. Cole is now 35, and it might be too much to expect him to return to ace form coming off a major surgery. At the same time, it would probably be unrealistic to think he’d be completely washed up. Penciling him in as a strong mid-rotation arm beginning in the early summer seems reasonable.

The bullpen was the Yankees’ weak link throughout the season, but I don’t think they have too much work to do here. Relief pitching is inherently volatile, and some of their bullpen woes could work themselves out on their own.

Williams had a dreadful start to his time with the Yankees, earning him the reputation of a pitcher who can’t handle the pressures of playing in New York. Fair or not, it probably means the Yankees won’t be bringing him back for another year. Luke Weaver regressed significantly after earning the closer role down the stretch in 2024. He’s also a pending free agent; the Yankees won’t pay top dollar to retain him, but if his price falls, they could re-sign him and see if they can get him right.

Offseason addition Fernando Cruz was a mostly dependable high-leverage arm when he was healthy. Camilo Doval struggled with his command after the Yankees traded for him at the deadline. Fellow deadline acquisition Jake Bird pitched so poorly that the Yankees optioned him to Triple-A. David Bednar, the third reliever they brought in at the deadline, slid into the closer’s role nicely and provided stability to the bullpen over the final two months. All four of those pitchers are under club control for at least one more year.

There will definitely be some turnover in the bullpen, because there is always turnover in the bullpen, but I think this should be a lower priority for the Yankees than signing a center fielder and adding another impact bat. The Yankees are one of the better teams at targeting reclamation projects and relatively no-name relievers and developing them into capable mid-to-high-leverage arms. I’d trust the track record here.

Ultimately, despite the disappointing finish, the Yankees aren’t that far off. They can do more to improve their roster — they should add an impact bat, sort out center field and shortstop, patch up the bullpen, and continue to develop guys — but they weren’t wrong in their belief that they were talented enough to win it all. Sometimes you just get beat.

Another Yankees season has ended in failure. As it did last year. And the year before that. And so it goes, and goes, and goes. Indeed, for 16 years, it’s been one failure after another for the Yankees. But that doesn’t mean this trend has to continue. That’s why you endure all that failure and believe that next time things will be different. At some point, with enough talent and hard work and more than a little bit of luck, that faith is bound to be rewarded with a season that ends in success.

“I’m confident we’ll break through, and I have been every year, and I believe in so many of the people in that room,” Boone said. “That hasn’t changed. The fire hasn’t changed. It’s hard to win the World Series. Been chasing it all my life.”