One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for June 1st

Oriole Brian Matusz makes his season debut tonight.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Baltimore at Seattle, Los Angeles (NL) at Kansas City, and Milwaukee at Cincinnati.

2. A spirited, sometimes irrational, defense of newest Royal Felipe Paulino.

3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

Baltimore (2) at Seattle (2) | 15:40 ET
Starting Pitchers
Orioles: Brian Matusz (N/A)
Three Rehab Starts: 15.0 IP, 10 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, ca. 2.55 FIP

Mariners: Michael Pineda (10)
63.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, .247 BABIP, 33.7% GB, 5.1% HR/FB, 3.21 xFIP, 81 xFIP-

What Brian Matusz Is Doing Tonight
Making his season debut.

Where He Was Instead of Pitching
Well, for some of the time, he was rehabbing from a strained intercostal muscle. Other of the time, he was doing whatever he wanted, on account of he’s an adult.

Where the Intercostal Muscle Is
I don’t know precisely, but I advise against doing a Google image search for it. Because, disgusting, is why.

Michael Pineda Watch, Part I
Pineda’s ranks among the 159 starters with 20+ innings:

• Fastball Velocity: 1st (95.5 mph)
• Swinging-Strike Rate: T-1st (with Shaun Marcum, 12.8%)
• Strike Rate: 6th (69.0%)

Michael Pineda Watch, Part II
Pineda’s platoon splits:

• vs L: 30.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 25.3% GB, 3.72 xFIP
• vs R: 33.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 42.5% GB, 2.75 xFIP

Semi-Alarming Observation
Both of these pitchers are younger than the original NES.

Los Angeles Americans (6) at Kansas City (10) | 16:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Angels: Tyler Chatwood (1)
56.2 IP, 4.29 K/9, 5.08 BB/9, .298 BABIP, 43.8% GB, 7.6% HR/FB, 5.13 xFIP, 129 xFIP-

Royals: Felipe Paulino (N/A)
19.0 IP, 8.05 IP, 3.32 BB/9, .382 BABIP, 49.1% GB, 17.6% HR/FB, 3.29 xFIP, 87 xFIP-

What This Game Represents
Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness?

What This Game Represents, Redux
Felipe Paulino’s first start for his new team — and first start of the season, generally.

What I’m Prepared to Tell Anyone
That Felipe Paulino, high walk rate aside, is good.

Let Me Count the Ways
Fastball velocity, wipeout slider, strikeout rate, ground-ball rate.

What a Learned Reader Might Say About That
Paulino doesn’t really have a changeup and his platoon split (5.55 FIP v L, 3.82 FIP v R) bears that out.

What I, The Author, Would Reply
Looks like someone around here is a jerkface. (Psst: it’s you.)

Milwaukee (7) at Cincinnati (9) | 19:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Brewers: Shaun Marcum (7)
70.2 IP, 8.53 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, .266 BABIP, 33.9% GB, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.20 xFIP, 86 xFIP-

Reds: Mike Leake (7)
42.1 IP, 7.23 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 44.1% GB, 11.9% HR/FB, 3.67 xFIP, 98 xFIP-

What Shaun Marcum and Michael Pineda Have in Common
Of the 159 pitchers with 20+ innings as a starter, they’re tied with the best swinging-strike rate (which greatly inform strikeout rate) at 12.8%.

How Shaun Marcum and Michael Pineda Are Different
In lots of ways, probably, but, most relevant to the present discussion, in this way specifically: while Pineda’s first overall of the aforementioned sample with a 95.5 mph average fastball, Marcum is 151st, with an average fastball of 86.6 mph.

A Maybe Surprising Graph
Here’s fastball velocity plotted against swinging-strike rate for the aformentioned sample.

Notes on Same
• This is surprising to me — the lack of correlation (r = 0.19).
• It’s probably best not to regard it as conclusive, either, given what Dave Cameron found with regard to the stronger (r = ca 0.45) correlation between velocity and K/9.
• Still, 20-plus innings isn’t insignificant for either of these stats.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)