One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for June 2nd

Larry Bernandez has the day off.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: San Francisco at St. Louis, Houston at San Diego, and Tampa Bay at Seattle.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. Actual videos from MLB.com (as commemorated earlier in the pages of this site’s enthusiastic little brother).

San Francisco (3) at St. Louis (4) | 20:15 ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Jonathan Sanchez (6)
64.0 IP, 9.98 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, .261 BABIP, 42.2% GB, 10.2% HR/FB, 3.51 xFIP, 94 xFIP-

Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (9)
68.2 IP, 8.26 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 52.0% GB, 6.6% HR/FB, 2.91 xFIP, 78 xFIP-

UPDATE: As reader-commented christina notes below, Lance Lynn — and not Jaime Garcia — will be starting tonight for the Cards.

Here’s Lynn’s line at Triple-A Memphis so far this season: 62.0 IP, 7.84 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 0.15 HR/9, 2.78 FIP. He had an impressive Triple-A playoff start last season, striking out 16 against then-Texas affiliate Oklahoma City, but he seems more like the guy who averaged 7.74 K/9 during the regular season in 2010.

What Everyone Wants to Know
If Jaime Garcia’s most recent start, this past Saturday against Colorado, is worrisome.

As to Whether Everyone Is Actually Using the Word Worrisome
Yes, undoubtedly.

Regarding Same Start, Garcia’s Line from It
3.1 IP, 11 H, 12 R, 11 ER

Regarding Same Start, Garcia’s Saber-type Line from It
3.1 IP, 26 TBF, 6 K, 4 BB, 11 GB on 17 batted-balls (64.7% GB)

More on That
Here’s why maybe there’s, like, zero reason to be concerned about that start. These are Garcia’s game ERA, FIP, and xFIP (from our world-class box score):

• ERA: 29.70
• FIP: 6.84
• xFIP: 3.63

To the Videotape
Here’s video of the six-run first inning from that game. Nothing hit all that hard, even.

Houston (3) at San Diego (5) | 22:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Astros: Bud Norris (9)
67.0 IP, 9.81 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .318 BABIP, 41.6% GB, 12.7% HR/FB, 3.14 xFIP, 84 xFIP-

Padres: Tim Stauffer (6)
65.0 IP, 7.06 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 52.8% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.09 xFIP, 83 xFIP-

Bud Norris Slider Watch
Per the BIS data, Norris is currently second in the league in terms of slider usage (behind only Brett Anderson), at 37.9%.

Bud Norris Slider Watch, Part II
Per our pitch-type data, Norris’s slider has been worth 14.3 runs above average, best in the league.

To the Videotape
I think I’m correct in saying that every righty who goes down swinging in this video — from Norris’s start on May 1st — is swinging at the slider.

Tampa Bay (7) at Seattle (2) | 22:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rays: James Shields (9)
83.2 IP, 8.71 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, .259 BABIP, 43.7% GB, 10.7% HR/FB, 2.75 xFIP, 69 xFIP-

Mariners: Felix Hernandez (8)
84.2 IP, 8.61 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, .284 BABIP, 47.8% GB, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.04 xFIP, 76 xFIP-

James Shields, 2010
Here’s how James Shields fared in 2010 by those metric we generally associate with luck:

• BABIP: .341 (.293)
• LOB: 68.4% (72.2%)
• HR/FB: 13.8% (9.5%)

James Shields, 2011
Here’s how Shields is performing by those same metrics so far in 2011:

• BABIP: .259 (.287)
• LOB: 86.4% (72.7%)
• HR/FB: 10.7% (ca. 8.8%)

To the Videotape
This is video of James Shields’ 13 K start from May 18th.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)