One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 11th

You’ll have to go through Tyler Chatwood to see Peavy’s debut tonight.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Tampa Bay at Cleveland, Jake Peavy’s Debut™, Philadelphia at Florida Marlins.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. All manner of garment-rending.

Tampa Bay (8) at Cleveland (10) | 19:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rays: David Price (8)
49.2 IP, 7.25 K/9, 1.63 BB/9, .297 BABIP, 42.2 GB%, 7.4% HR/FB, 3.35 xFIP, 85 xFIP-

Indians: Carlos Carrasco (5)
29.0 IP, 5.59 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, .337 BABIP, 37.1 GB%, 2.9% HR/FB, 4.17 xFIP, 106 xFIP-

Notes
• Observation: though he’s allowing two fewer walks per nine innings this season than he’s averaged for his career (3.5 BB/9), little has changed about Price’s approach.
• For example, percentage of pitches thrown for strikes: 64.3% in 2008-10, 64.3% in 2011.
• For other example, first-strike percentage: ca. 60.5% in 2008-10, 61.4% in 2011.
• Swinging-strike rate, zone percentage, contact percentage: they’re all basically the same.
• It’s mystery, is what it is.

If I Had My Druthers
• It actually would be a mystery — as in mystery novel.
• And Hercule Poirot would be the detective on the case.
• And he’d be like, “What are you talking about? I’m Belgian. Whaddo I give an eff about some lanceur’s walk rate?”

Philadelphia (2) at Florida (6) | 19:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Cliff Lee (10)
46.1 IP, 11.65 K/9, 1.36 BB/9, .355 BABIP, 38.2 GB%, 8.3% HR/FB, 2.11 xFIP, 58 xFIP-

Marlins: Ricky Nolasco (8)
47.1 IP, 7.23 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, .279 BABIP, 45.2 GB%, 13.0% HR/FB, 2.95 xFIP, 80 xFIP-

Notes
• So far this season, Ricky Nolasco is pitching almost exactly like 2008-09 Cliff Lee.
• Lee’s numbers then: 6.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, ca. 43.5 GB%, ca. 83 xFIP-.
• Cliff Lee, on the other hand, is pitching like 2000 Pedro Martinez.
• Pedro that year: 11.78 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 46 FIP-, 10.1 WAR.
• Using his GO/AO ratio of 0.98, we can also estimate his ground-ball rate at something like 42.0%.

If I Had My Druthers
• We’d find out that the man we think is Cliff Lee is actually Pedro Martinez.
• Except he learned how to throw left-handed.
• And be from Arkansas.

Chicago Americans (2) at Los Angeles Americans (7) | 22:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Jake Peavy (N/A)
Triple-A: 18.2 IP, 8.20 K/9, 0.48 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9, 3.63 FIP

Angels: Tyler Chatwood (1)
35.1 IP, 4.58 K/9, 5.60 BB/9, .265 BABIP, 45.7 GB%, 10.3% HR/FB, 5.13 xFIP, 130 xFIP-

Notes
• Experiment: what would Jake Peavy’s NERD have to be to make this, his season debut, technically as “watchable” as the Rays-Indians game up above?
• Answer: 20. And that’s with rounding up.
• Alot of that is due to Chatwood’s score.
• He has the second-lowest strike percentage among starters with 20-plus innings — just 55.6%.
• Only Francisco Liriano is worse at this point (55.2%).

If I Had My Druthers
• My butler would change the channel for me as soon as the White Sox came to bat.
• Also, I would have a butler in the first place.
• Seriously. Butler. Now.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)