One Night Only: Paternity Tests
On this Father’s Day Weekend, One Night Only wants to know: is Steve Garvey your Padre?
Friday, June 18
Behold: Gavin Floyd (NERD: 7) at Stephen Strasburg (10), 7:05pm ET
• On account of he’s as yet to top the 20 IP mark, Strasburg doesn’t show up on the proprietary NERD spreadsheet yet. But were he to, he’d probably break the frig out of it. His xFIP (1.55), swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and fastball velocity (97.8 mph) are all multiple standard deviations from the mean. And also, he’s only 21. So, boom goes that particular brand of dynamite, I guess. Nor should Gavin Floyd’s contribution to this game be overlooked entirely. Despite sporting a 5.64 ERA, his xFIP is a considerably tidier 3.99.
If You Can Handle It: Johnny Cueto (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET
• Lee is one of only five pitchers — along with Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Roy Halladay, and Tim Wakefield — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. He does it just by having an h-o-t xFIP and throwing strikes. Cueto gets there by a pretty different route: his age (24) and fastball velocity (93.3 mph). Cueto’s four-seamer also has a 11.8% whiff rate. Pretty good.
What to Make Of: Dontrelle Willis (0) at Armando Galarraga (3), 7:05pm ET
• To what degree does Galarraga’s very famous and mostly perfect game affect our desire to watch him after the fact? Certainly, the start right after a historical game is worth a look. But the fact remains: he’s still Armando Galarraga. He doesn’t really get swing-and-misses, he’s got a lifetime 4.78 xFIP (4.92 through 33.2 IP this year), and he not gonna throw another perfect game.
Saturday, June 19
Behold: Vicente Padilla (9) at Tim Wakefield (10), 4:10pm ET
• Padilla’s elevated score is a result of there being no point deduction for having a giant, fat head. That and he has an xFIP of 3.95 versus an ERA of 6.65. It’s also worth noting that this weekend marks Manny Ramirez‘ return to the scene of at least some of his crimes. Fun drinking game: take a shot every time Joe Buck either (a) waxes moralistic about “players these days” or (b) subtly suggests that football is better than baseball. You’re gonna get wasted, believe me!
Also Consider: Zack Greinke (7) at Kris Medlen (7), 7:10pm ET
• It’s like a Zen koan: is the pleasure of watching Zack Greinke worth the pain of watching the Kansas City offense (or defense, for that matter)? With Kris Medlen pitching, it might be. The young Atlantan has two pitches that are a joy to watch. First, there’s his two-seamer, which hella tails. Second — and perhaps most impressively — there’s his changepiece. Medlen gets whiffs on 28% of his change-ups, compared to a league-average of just 15% on the same pitch.
I Don’t Care, I’m Still Watching: Colby Lewis (5) at Brian Moehler (0)
• Colby Lewis is in my heart and he’s in my soul. Also, he’s probably gonna be my breath should I grow old. So, back off.
Sunday, June 20
Speed Round!
• This marks, I think, the fourth or fifth consecutive time that Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson have pitched on the same day. Two of those were against each other, and they were excellent games both times. Today the former faces Carl Pavano (6) at 1:35pm ET, while the latter takes on David Price (6) at 1:10pm ET. In re Tampa, do you wanna guess who’s the team-leader in OBP, or do you want me to tell you? How about you guess.
• Ian Kennedy (5) and Max Scherzer (8) were involved in a three-way over the winter. Oh snap! (Note: this bullet is brought to you by the 18- to 34-year-old male demographic.)
• More will be made of Johan Santana (4) at CC Sabathia (7) than is probably right.
• What sort of bonus does a major league debut deserve? How about the second and third starts for the same pitcher? Do we give 3, 2, and then 1 extra point? In any case, today is Brad Lincoln’s third career start. That may or may not appeal to you. Two things that are more appealing, probably, are Justin Masterson (8) and all of Pittsburgh’s youth — including the recently promoted Pedro Alvarez.
• Felipe Paulino is alternately devestating and terrible. Either way, if you like to see ball go fast, he’s your dude. He’ll be throwing fastpieces at 96 mph against C.J. Wilson &co. at 2:05pm ET.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
“take a shot every time Jack Buck either (a) waxes moralistic about “players these days” or (b) subtly suggests that football is better than baseball. You’re gonna get wasted, believe me!”
Isn’t he dead?
Ah, crackers: I screwed up.
Fixed now.
I love the NERD stuff, but now I unfortunately have “You’re in My Heart” stuck in my head. As an aside, how does Tim Wakefield have a 10?
Who doesn’t love to watch a knuckle ball?
The 3-2-1 idea with a pitcher’s first start is a good one. I feel like this fits into a similar category as Armando Galarraga’s (or any of the multitude of perfect game/no hitter pitchers these days) start.
Maybe you could have a part of the formula that adds extra points for special games like that, including possibly pitchers facing former teams for the first time, pitching matchups with pitchers who were traded for each other, and maybe other situations I can’t come up with right now.
throws ~10 mph fastballs
NERD now adds the absolute value of the standard deviations from the mean of fastball velocity. So pitchers well above or below average get a boost. Wakefield gets a huge boost because he’s so slow.
IMHO, deviations below need a cap because guys like Wakefield and Moyer get a bigger boost than Jimenez and Verlander.
Actually, the only time the Royals offense is painful to watch is when Greinke is pitching. Believe it or not, they actually lead the majors in hitting.
Their team wOBA is 8th in the AL.
“do you wanna guess who’s the team-leader in OBP, or do you want me to tell you? How about you guess.”
Without looking it up – is it John Jaso?
Felix Dubront’s debut gets some NERD points in my book. He’s not a highly touted prospect, but will probably stick in a rotation eventually. Monasterios probably isn’t pulling a lot of NERD, but it’s just guessing until they post the NERD stats on this site (and get out of the dark ages).
Re: Tampa Bay’s OBP Leader. John Jaso
Hi Carson,
I enjoy your work greatly. I wonder if your recommendation of
Gavin Floyd (NERD: 7) at Stephen Strasburg (10)
over
Johnny Cueto (8) at Cliff Lee (10),
which has a higher cumulative NERD score, suggests room for improvement in the NERD calculation.
I don’t get how one could possibly prefer watching Floyd over Cueto, and Lee and Strasburg both deserve their 10’s.
Can you explain why Tim Wakefield has a 10NERD factor? I’m intrigued by a geriatric knuckleballer, but he can’t be equal to Cliff Lee……can he?
Isn’t this a question of aesthetics more that math, though? You can’t really tell Carson what HIS visceral reactions to watching a knuckleball are, can you?
“hella tails”
ya know, the Royals have been remarkably better offensively this year than in previous years. 12th in wOBA out of all teams, tied for 1st in average out of all teams…they’re a lot better. Just not the best.
Anytime a Rod Stewart comment is made, a cougar falls in love.
Naturally, I play Rod Stewart all the time in my bagel shop.
Shouldn’t Padilla’s NERD get some boost from the fact that he’s usually either: (a) pitching drunk; or (b) pitching hungover?
Fastpiece, classic!!!