Opening Day Notes: Kershaw vs. Lincecum

Opening Day’s most anticipated matchup is that of the Kershaw vs. that of the Lincecum. How anticipated you ask? The latest issue of Dodgers Magazine was appropriately dubbed “explosive openings” and will only be on sale at Dodger Stadium on Opening Day. And it features both Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum on its front cover much to the ire of many (or a very few) Dodgers fans.

To help you out when you watch the game tonight, let’s take a look at the pitch selection of both aces, as Kershaw and Lincecum mix their repertoires very differently. Kershaw relies heavily on his low-to-mid 90s four-seam fastball, hurling it on at least 70% of pitches throughout his Major League career. His 12-6 low-70s curve ball was the talk of Tinseltown a few years ago, but Kershaw has since developed a low-80s slider. It has become his favorite secondary pitch, used almost 20% of the time in 2010. His straight changeup hovers in the mid-80s range.

By contrast, Lincecum’s out pitch is his sinking changeup, which he adds a split-fingered grip to. Combined with his mid-80s hard slider and high-70s curve, Lincecum’s repertoire also consists of fastballs that cut, break, and rise in all sorts of directions. Timmy breaks out the fastball on 55% of pitches with varying speeds and movement, anywhere between 87 and 95 mph, then throws the changeup, curve, and slider in that order of frequency.

Here’s a look at Kershaw’s and Lincecum’s pitch selection in different count situations by batter handedness (on the first pitch, hitter’s count, and pitcher’s count:

Pitch Selection vs. Right-Handed Hitters					Pitch Selection vs. Left-Handed Hitters
Kershaw	First Pitch	Hitter Ahead	Pitcher Ahead		Kershaw	First Pitch	Hitter Ahead	Pitcher Ahead
Fastball	75.3%	84.6%	53.1%		Fastball	74.6%	87.8%	60.0%
Slider	14.0%	8.9%	28.5%		Slider	24.3%	12.2%	33.3%
Curve	7.8%	1.0%	17.3%		Curve	1.1%	0.0%	6.7%
Change	2.0%	1.8%	1.2%		Change	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lincecum	First Pitch	Hitter Ahead	Pitcher Ahead		Lincecum	First Pitch	Hitter Ahead	Pitcher Ahead
4-seam	60.0%	53.4%	34.8%		4-seam	35.0%	43.0%	30.7%
2-seam	8.8%	14.2%	5.3%		2-seam	26.5%	25.7%	10.9%
Slider	7.9%	9.2%	16.2%		Slider	3.4%	3.2%	9.2%
Curve	18.0%	12.3%	18.8%		Curve	21.8%	9.4%	10.4%
Change	4.9%	9.2%	25.0%		Change	12.9%	17.1%	38.6%

The left-handed Kershaw uses only his four-seamer and slider against same-handed batters. His pitch selection clearly shows that his slider has become his favorite secondary pitch to use. When Kershaw is ahead in the count, he’ll use the slider most often outside of his fastball, while occasionally mixing in his 12-6 curve against right-handed hitters. Kershaw rarely throws his changeup, and never against lefties.

Whereas Kershaw throws the fastball 85% of the time in hitter’s counts, Lincecum isn’t afraid to mix in all of his secondary pitches no matter the count situation. He’ll throw a variety of fastballs rather than a distinct four-seamer and two-seamer, so think of the two-seam fastball numbers as Lincecum’s fastballs with the most horizontal break toward right-handed hitters. He’ll throw more of these fastballs against lefties since they break away from them.

Watch for the changeup when Lincecum is ahead in the count against left-handed hitters: he threw it 39% of the time in 2010, more often than any other pitch in that situation. His changeup is so effective that he’ll break it out against same-handed hitters too, a rare occurrence for most pitchers who throw the change. Another interesting nugget is that Lincecum uses his curve ball more often on the first pitch than most pitchers would, throwing it about 20% of the time.

Here’s a look at a few plate discipline numbers against each pitcher’s pitch, split by batter handedness (Contact% is contact made per pitch swung at, SwStr% is swinging strikes per pitch seen):

Pitch Outcome vs. Right-Handed Hitters					Pitch Outcome vs. Left-Handed Hitters
Kershaw	Contact%	SwStr%	Total		Kershaw	Contact%	SwStr%	Total
Fastball	87.2%	5.8%	1854		Fastball	65.9%	16.8%	530
Slider	59.9%	18.1%	504		Slider	48.7%	22.5%	173
Curve	73.5%	6.1%	214		Curve	77.3%	0.0%	18
Change	75.0%	9.1%	44		Change	0.0%	0.0%	0
Lincecum	Contact%	SwStr%	Total		Lincecum	Contact%	SwStr%	Total
4-seam	83.6%	7.3%	818		4-seam	86.4%	5.3%	693
2-seam	85.3%	6.1%	164		2-seam	82.4%	5.8%	337
Slider	69.7%	16.6%	217		Slider	68.2%	22.8%	123
Curve	77.3%	9.7%	300		Curve	84.8%	5.1%	274
Change	60.5%	23.9%	285		Change	56.2%	27.4%	555

Kershaw’s slider has resulted in very good swinging strike numbers against both righties and lefties — righties made contact 60% of the time when they swung on the slider while lefties made contact less than 50% of the time. But the four-seamer is much more effective against lefties than righties, which complements his slider as the main reasons for Kershaw’s strikeout rate platoon splits (13.40 K/9 against LHH, 8.19 K/9 against RHH). Hitters make more contact against the curve ball than the slider when they swing.

Lincecum’s changeup and slider are his best out pitches, inducing swinging strikes over 20% of the time he throws them against all batters. They’re more successful against lefties than righties. One pitch that Kershaw’s better at throwing is the fastball, as Lincecum’s fastballs don’t induce as many whiffs as Kershaw’s, especially against same-handed batters.

One thing to watch out for in both NL West aces is their fastball speeds. Kershaw and Lincecum have both seen decreased fastball speeds each year, both averaging 94 mph two years ago and dropping to 91-92 mph.

Whether you’re looking for how Lincecum mixes his changeup and varies his fastball movement or Kershaw’s fastball and slider usage in getting whiffs, the Dodgers-Giants opening night at Chavez Ravine will be the game to watch on Opening Day, a must-watch pitching matchup.