Oswalt’s Path to Reds Blocked by Roster, Payroll
Reds GM Walt Jocketty is sick and tired of your Roy Oswalt rumors:
“It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.” (via John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer)
These rumors Jocketty refers to include this piece by Ken Rosenthal from Monday’s wee hours, which claims the Reds were still in on Oswalt despite the 34-year-old’s inclinations to sign in either St. Louis or Texas. However, there’s more than just Oswalt’s preferences in the way — the Reds would both need to clear a space in the starting rotation and salary from the books in order to make it work.
That means the Reds would probably have to deal reliever Nick Masset ($2.4 million in 2012) and Homer Bailey ($2.425 million in 2012) to clear both the roster space and money necessary to insert Oswalt into their rotation. The prospect of adding some young players through trades and then ostensibly improving the rotation with Oswalt is an intriguing one, to be sure, but the value of Bailey can’t be very high right now — the former top prospect is coming off three straight seasons with an ERA hovering around 4.50 and just one season with a better-than-average FIP. Masset is a decent reliever, capable of ERAs in the 2.00s but more likely to sit in the mid-3.00s, but not one teams will be falling head-over-heels for.
The only other potential salary-clearing option at pitcher is Aroldis Chapman ($2 million in 2012, $5 million beyond), but he isn’t yet slated to join the rotation, sitting behind Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake. The Reds could still deal Chapman, sign Oswalt, and bump one of Bailey, Arroyo or Leake to the bullpen. However, for a team which still appears committed to Chapman as a starting pitcher beyond this season, it seems far-fetched that they would go through such maneuvers for one year of Roy Oswalt.
Basically, as much as it seems like the Reds, a contending team with room to improve, could use Roy Oswalt, it just isn’t in the cards. Rumors will persist until Oswalt chooses a team, but the hurdles on his path to Cincinnati just seem too high and too many.
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Roy Oswalt could be the determining factor of which team, STL or CIN, wins the Central. They appear to be that close on paper.
Do the Cards and Reds know this?
Neither one of them seems to be treating Oswalt as if he’s the difference.
I don’t think they’re actually as close as you do.
Right now, the only teams we know he wants to go to are the Cards and Rangers and maybe the Reds, all of whom have full rotations, seemingly on his terms, and seemingly at his price.
He’s acting like he’s Pedro Martinez in his prime, and not a pretty good pitcher with a history of back problems whose own pitching coach (Rich Dubee) said he was only good for about 20-25 starts per year going forward.
Sometimes I wonder how much Oswalt wants to play or if he just wants to retire.
He was better than pretty good for a long time and his salary demands are pretty reasonable considering his track record and his performance last year (one bad month excepted). He’s a clear upgrade for the Reds on Arroyo, but they won’t/can’t dodge his contract, and it’s probably not wise for them to give up on Bailey just yet with a few more years of team control.
I’m surprised he’s played this long. Back when he was in his prime(and it wasn’t just “pretty good”), he said multiple times he was planning on retiring at 32 or 33.
It could/should be mentioned that Bailey is out of options, too.
I remember when he was a top 25 prospect for a few years running…good times.
Pirates apparently offered him 1 yr 10 mil, and he turned it down. Worst case he woulda got traded to a contender midseason. Screw him.
He also shot down a chance to join the Tigers. He’s awfully particular.
How dare a guy only pitch for teams he wants to pitch for…HOW DARE HE!
Yeah, what the fuck why does he care about more things than money! Move to China asshole!
So, after we’ve worked in our careers for a long time, very successfully we won’t be very selective about where we work? And we’ll look at more than just net pay when we make our decision? Shocking.
Seriously, people need to get of their high horses and stop criticizing athletes for doing the very same thing we do in our own careers, only on a lesser scale.
If Oswalt doesn’t get his demands met, he’ll have to change them or find another career … just like the rest of us.
At this point, are the Red Sox the only team with an actual offer on the table to Oswalt?
As a Reds fan, I wouldn’t want to give up Bailey or Chapman just for one year of Oswalt. If they had the payroll space to add him without subtracting anyone I’d be all for it, but not if they have to give up one of those two.
Chapman no, Bailey yes. Bailey’s had enough chances, he’s a bust.
Bailey’s a fine fifth starter, particularly at the money he makes.
Sure, if you want him to be something else you’re likely to be disappointed, and sometimes teams misevaluate players because of what might have been, but Bailey has value.
Lets see…Bailey is 25 and his stats have continued to improve each of the last three years… particularly in his K/BB ratio. Those are signs of a possible breakout on the horizon.
I wouldn’t count Philly out yet
Roy Oswalt is a good pitcher, the question for him really is how many teams are in the market considering
a) They still room on the roster
b) They still have room in the budget
c) Can he make enough of an impact for that team
That is very tight criteria this late in the game. He might be stuck sitting on the sidelines unless he drastically lowers his salary requirements.
I’d be willing to bet he will swallow his pride and accept less money to play in StL with Berkman and Beltran. He signs for one year and around $8 million by the end of the week is my guess…. Any takers?
I think if StL was willing to offer him $8 mil and a guaranteed spot in the rotation, he’d be there already.
I’m guessing StL either has been offering a lot less (like say, 3-5 mil) and/or are not guaranteeing a starter’s job.
I agree he’d be there already if there was an offer of $6M+ but there’s no way he’s going to pen before Westbrook.
Still think the Rox rotation needs a veteran leader and Guthrie isn’t exactly that guy. It’s not exactly the location he wants, but if they make a fair offer he’ll go.
You may be right… I think Oswalt expected the Rangers to be more involved for leverage… so the Cardinals might get him for even cheaper. I still bet he ends up with a decent deal that saves face. Any team would love to have him for $3 million, but you don’t want a completely demoralized and pissed off pitcher once he signs, either. (regardless of how poorly he negotiated to end up there.) I could see anywhere from $6-8 mil but I’d be shocked if it goes any lower than that even with his back against a wall.
Mrlins should have jumped before pulling trigger on Zambrano.
oh and TOR is the other team where Oswalt fits.
Toronto has so many potential starters I have hard time believing that they will look at him. I do say “potential”, beyond Romero, none have shown that they can be consistently good.
Guaranteed starters are (most likely),
* Brandon Morrow
* Ricky Romero
* Brett Cecil
Other potential starters are,
* Henderson Alvarez
* Jesse Litsch
* Dustin McGowan
* Carlos Villanueva
* Kyle Drabek (unlikely)
That is up to about 8 potential starters on the roster. I am not saying Oswalt could not contribute, but I think that they are going to be trying all of these guys first to see who to keep and who to drop this year.
plenty of teams may have 8 SPs lined up, but few are as good as Oswalt and in TOR only Romero or Morrow are certain for that rotation.
But of course Oswalt really only makes any sense if the Jays actually try and be relevant this year. Till now there hasn’t been much indication they’re moving out of the building stage.
By the time they decide to get real and try to contend, Bautista may be on the wrong side. IMO, they should mount a real effort and see where it goes. Oswalt may not want to go up there, but why not give him a phone call at least?
If those are their “potential” starters, then I’d say Oswalt would be a priority.
EVERY team has a Top 10 prospect list. EVERY team has “potential” starters. They have to.
The Blue Jays potential starters aren’t that promising or exciting. There are some guys that look like they “might” be decent, but given unsustainable BB/9 and BABIPs over s asmall sample, it would be necessary to regress their projections a lot, and that’s going to make them look mire ho-hum than “could be really good”.
He wants to play for a contender near his home. How in the world do the Blue Jays qualify on either of those? He’s not going to Canada to play.
none of the contenders near his home have rotation spots for him. I thought that was understood.
Hey, Roy, you want to play for a legit contender this year … go sign with the third best team in the AL East.