Our 2021 Dodgers Prospect List, Revisited
Back in December, Eric Longenhagen compiled FanGraphs’ annual Dodgers Top Prospects List, identifying 51 noteworthy players in Los Angeles’ system. What follows is an update on the top-ranked players and best performers from that list, along with some previously unlisted prospects who’ve made a case for themselves to be included in prospect lists to come. (Note: The stats in this article are updated through Monday, June 28).
Updates on the Top Five
Josiah Gray, the Dodgers’ top-ranked prospect who they acquired in the Yasiel Puig trade, seemed to be a likely option to replace Dustin May on the big-league roster when May was sidelined by Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the year. But just a few days later, Gray made his first start at Triple-A and has been sidelined ever since with an arm injury of his own (shoulder impingement). He hasn’t pitched since then, and according to team personnel, they’re wisely taking their time with his rehabilitation. Whenever Gray is deemed healthy enough to pitch, he’ll still likely be on a fast track to the major league roster.
Eric’s December write-up made note of Keibert Ruiz’s penchant for swinging at pitches out of the zone, which he makes up for with his ability to make contact on those pitches. As such, we’d expect to see a low K-rate paired with a low walk-rate. After the first couple months of the minor league season, this has proven to be true, but the degree to which it’s true is what is of note. Ruiz has an 11.7% walk rate, which is right around league average. His strikeout rate, however, is extremely low – only 12.4%, compared to the league average of 23.4%, which is the sixth best in all of Triple-A this year. If this can be read as Ruiz improving his strike recognition and laying off pitches that his past self may have swung at for soft contact, then this is an important improvement, as it speaks to a more mature approach at the plate.
Michael Busch’s season started out strong. In his first 20 games at Double-A, he hit six home runs and six doubles while walking 14.3% of the time, lending credence to his profile as a patient hitter with power potential. Unfortunately, in the 20 games since that peak, he’s only gotten two extra-base (both doubles), which has knocked his wRC+ down from 146 on May 27 to its current 112. Most troubling has been his strikeout rate, which is at 31.4%, well above the Double-A league average of 25.5%. In his last seven games, Busch has struck out 15 times, including four three-strikeout games. That his wRC+ is still above 100 can likely be credited to his walk rate, which is still a very impressive 15.5% (compared to a league-average of 10.1%). His numbers at the dish are surely cause for concern, but more encouraging is his usage in the field; he’s spent most of the season at second base. The fact that Busch is holding down the keystone should be reassuring to the organization, as they prepare to potentially shuffle their middle-infield pieces around with Corey Seager’s impending free agency.
Meanwhile, Andy Pages leads all of High-A with 15 home runs (the most of anyone in the Dodgers minor league system, and second-most in all of the minor leagues), and has the seventh highest wRC+ (141) for anyone in the league with at least 200 PA. His 26% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate may seem unsavory, but both are in fact right around league-average (25.7% and 10.3%, respectively). Combine the upside Pages has demonstrated in 2021 with the fact that he doesn’t turn 21 until December, and we’re looking at some very impressive numbers from a very young player who looks poised to make an impact on the Dodgers system.
Similar to Pages, Jacob Amaya’s walk and strikeout rates are both right around league-average for Double-A, but without the power that Pages has been producing, Amaya’s season has been notably less impressive and has inspired significantly less fanfare. And while it’s true that Amaya’s production has been worse this year than may have been expected from a top-five prospect, it’s helpful to compare those numbers to Amaya’s own production in past seasons to get a better sense for where they fit in his overall development. Amaya’s strikeout rate is currently sits at 27.3%, which is just slightly above the Double-A league average of 25.5% but is significantly higher than what he has posted during any previous season. His BABIP has also taken a notable dip this year compared to previous seasons. It’s quite possible that his dip in production in 2021 is a combination of growing pains from his Double-A promotion at the beginning of the season and a simple streak of bad luck on the balls he does put in play. Overall, it’s too soon to panic about Amaya’s numbers.
Other High-Performing Ranked Prospects
Diego Cartaya (No. 11) and Brandon Lewis (No. 34) have both been 2021 standouts at Low-A so far. Lewis has the second most home runs (10) and fourth most doubles in the league. Cartaya joined Low-A Rancho Cucamonga on May 25 and has done nothing but produce since then, putting up a 176 wRC+ and a 1.077 OPS with 23 hits and seven home runs in just 20 games there. Jorbit Vivas (No. 23) hasn’t put on quite the same show as Cartaya or Lewis, his Low-A teammates, but his 13.8% strikeout rate is lower than any other player’s in the Dodgers system at any level other than Kiebert Ruiz.
The impressive numbers at Low-A are not limited to offense. Carlos Duran (No. 30) is still only 19 years old and has 43 strikeouts on the season over just 29.1 innings of work. He’s also only issued 12 walks, which makes for a 31.9% K-rate and a walk-rate of 8.9%. Hyun-il Choi has also fanned 43 batters this year (31.4% of the batters he’s faced) while only allowing five free passes (six, if you include a HBP) over 35.1 innings on the mound, mostly in relief. Choi has only given up 28 hits this season, which combines with a minuscule 3.6% walk rate for a WHIP of just 0.93.
At High-A Great Lakes, James Outman (No. 31) and Carson Taylor (No. 38) have both gotten off to hot starts, albeit in different ways. Outman has been impressive on the base paths with five triples and 17 stolen bases already this season. His 14% walk rate is well above league-average (10.3%), which is encouraging in terms of allowing him to take advantage of his speed, but it’s negated somewhat by a strikeout rate that is inching towards 30%. Taylor, meanwhile, has walked more often than he’s struck out so far (18.2% and 14%, respectively), which is always encouraging for a prospect’s first taste of pro-ball, especially one who skipped Low-A.
Miguel Vargas started the season at High-A, where he hit seven home runs while maintaining a below league-average strikeout rate of 18.6% over 37 games (good for a 142 wRC+). He was promoted to Double-A in mid-June, where he has maintained roughly that same level of performance. He has already hit three home runs in his first 10 games, and his walk- and strikeout-rates are roughly the same as they were at High-A, for a 121 wRC post-promotion.
On the hill, both Ryan Pepiot (No. 6), and Andre Jackson (No. 14) have started the season strong, both posting strikeout rates above 35%, along with WHIPs under 1.00. The concerns about Pepiot’s precision remain, as his walk rate is still higher than is ideal (12.9%), but he is still mostly upside this season; in five of his first eight starts, he’s held opposing teams to one hit or fewer for a combined opponents’ batting average of .130 in 30.2 innings. Jackson, meanwhile, has pitched 43 innings so far and has only walked 6.5% of the batters he’s faced. That said, Jackson has the fifth-highest home run rate of all qualified pitchers in Double-A, so there’s still obvious work to be done before he’s ready to advance toward the bigs.
Zach Reks (No. 33) made his major-league debut on June 21 to round out the roster while the Dodgers awaited Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger’s respective returns from the Injured List. He went 0-for-2 in that debut, though it should be noted that he was tasked with facing Yu Darvish for his first taste of big-league ball. He struck out in his first at-bat, but his line out in his second plate appearance came off his bat at 103.3 mph, which is promising in terms of his ability to adjust to and barrel up big-league stuff. After that one appearance, he was sent back to Triple-A, which isn’t surprising or concerning considering his role as a stop-gap while the roster was depleted by injury. He homered in his first game back at Triple-A, continuing to add to an impressive 2021 campaign thus far. His 31.3% strikeout rate will need to come down before he’s truly considered big-league ready, but his 13.1% walk rate and .991 OPS are good for a 143 wRC+ at Triple-A on the season.
Unranked Attention Grabbers
Jonny Deluca has a 130 wRC+ with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in 39 games at Low-A. His walk- and strikeout-rates are both better than league-average (12.9% and 20.6%, compared to 26.6% and 12.1% respectively), and leads Low-A Rancho Cucamonga with three triples on the season.
One level up, Leonel Valera has more extra-base hits (nine doubles, five triples, and 10 home runs), than anyone at High-A Great Lakes not named Andy Pages, while teammate Ryan Ward leads the team in both OPS (.921) and wRC+ (149), marks that place him in the top 20 in all of High-A in both metrics. Ryan Noda’s swing has undergone a makeover during his time in the Dodgers system, and it seems to be paying off; his 10 home runs at Double-A are the most of anyone at Double-A Tulsa this season, and second most of any Dodgers prospect. The 25-year-old is on the older side for Double-A, but this season he’s continued to add to an already-impressive minor league statistical career.
Tess is a contributor at FanGraphs. When she's not watching college or professional baseball, she works as a sports video editor, creating highlight reels for high school athletes. She can be found on Twitter at @tesstass.
Here were are reading a very cool Dodgers prospect list revisited while Cubs and Brewers fans have no prospect list at all.
So Tess can’t do her work until Eric does his? That makes no sense.
At this point I’m more concerned about the health of Eric’s source than anything else. This was from his June 11th chat….
12:35
Normen Yost: any ETA on the Brewers list? not trying to rush just jonesin to find out more about the pitching in the system
12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Monday or Tuesday. One of my sources had a medical emergency otherwise it would have released yesterday or today.
Yeah it makes me wonder, what is that one piece of information that the source has that completes the list? If the source doesn’t know something borderline supernatural why not just release what you have? Is this in some way connected to the ghost of Captain Pabst?
I understand that it might be frustrating, but this post was done by Tess, not Eric, so it’s not like he pushed those two lists aside to update an existing one.
Good stuff. Thanks
I’m a bit confused about the Ruiz writeup. It notes the elite contact, but that 12.4% rate is almost double his rate in 2019 (the last significant sample where we have stats), when he was at 6.8% in AA (with a still pretty good 9% BB-rate) and 2.5% in a brief stint in AAA. From scouting just the statline the most profound difference seems to be the power – a .317 .ISO when he was sub-.100 back in ’19.
If adjustments were made, doesn’t this look more like a guy who’s accepted that it’s occasionally ok to strike out (but not too often) to tap into more power? Or is the message that he’s taking more marginal pitches in general, driving up both walks and Ks?
Having watched a ton of OKC games, it’s not anything to be alarmed about. He’s laying off the secondaries on the edges or just out of the zone, and is looking for pitches to drive. Ironically, the uptick in Ks is coming from improved swing decisions, it’s a good development.
Yeah, I’d never be alarmed by an elite contact rate. It just seems to me that the power is the real (and really exciting) story. It’s a hitter-friendly environment, but a slap-hitter with an absurdly low k-rate becoming a power hitter with a still-great k-rate seems like a big (and positive) profile change.
PCL power stats should be taken with caution
There were reports last year in spring, summer and alt-site that he was hitting for some more pop, and while the sample is incredibly small, that’s measured up in his few MLB at bats
He’s young and the Dodgers are the best in baseball at teaching guys a power stroke, so seeing some more pop emerge with Ruiz isn’t really something that should be considered too unlikely, I’d say
obv you’d want to wait and see it over a longer period
I kind of wonder if AAA-West/etc will end up with the same park factors as the PCL, as the franchises and parks are mixed up quite a bit now, and some of the teams in their league were not previously PCL teams, and some of the others are gone.
It’s likely to still be a hitter-friendly league because a lot of the teams overlap, but there’s more uncertainty about exactly how much.
(1) The PCL doesn’t exist anymore (a quibble, I admit, but c’mon). (2) his power’s about 33% better than league average for AAA West after being well below avg in 2019, and an ISO >.300 is a big step forward from an ISO under .100 pretty much regardless of hitting environment. Parks don’t generally inflate offense 3X.
(3) he plays for an organization with a pretty great track record of helping guys get to their power, so I don’t think it’s crazy to think there’s something there,
The book on Ruiz was always that he swung at everything because he could make contact with everything, so the quality of the contact wasn’t all that good. This change is broadly consistent with a story where he’s learning which pitches he can’t drive and so he’s not swinging at them as much. It’s definitely a good tradeoff because in the majors the pitchers were always just going to bait him into weak contact. Given how bad offense is at the catcher spot he always had a shot to play in the bigs, but now he looks a lot more like a starting catcher than he did before.
Ruiz’s power is interesting…small sample, of course. His home power (ISO ~.430) is higher than his road power (ISO ~.245). BA says Okla City was pretty anti-HR in 2019 – .958. Only reason I looked at that was to see if these HRs were hit at Vegas and Reno type parks. He did hit 2 of his 9 HR in ABQ at high elevation.
His GB/FB has also dropped from around ~1.30 for years to just ~1.00 this year.
Sample size is still very, very small, but some interesting things to watch the rest of the year.
Cartaya’s a beast, been their best prospect since 2019
Keibert Ruiz has posted minor league career bests in Pull% (50%) and flyball% (53.9%), he’s going hunting, pulling, and elevating, a pretty significant development for a guy who already had ++ bat to ball.
The Dodgers are the best at teaching the power stroke, and it tends to look fairly similar between guys who learn it from them, so .. yeah, this idea has always been an upside possibility for Ruiz with his contact.
Imo Andy Pages is the best prospect of the bunch and should be considered a top 50 prospect. The game power he has shown at his age is incredibly rare and his K rates while high are manageable. Also it’s not like he’s tied down to first base. It’ll be very interesting to see how Gray does when he is starting, he’s two pitch heavy but the slider is filthy
I don’t understand the down votes. No it has nothing to do with Tess, but is it not a bit ridiculous to be almost at the All Star Break and not have all 30 teams 2020-2021 offseason prospect lists done yet? They are nearly worthless at this point. Eric has been here long enough that the actual writing should not be as time consuming. Every year the prospect lists go into June or later. It is less than ideal.
On the other hand, the reason he was waiting on the Cubs’ list was because the team made backfields unavailable at some point IIRC, so by pushing the list to when the ACL started, he was able to get eyes on additional prospects.
Last year the Dodgers were one of the teams that came out at the end, so I feel you, but really its just the consequence of how comprehensive FG’s prospect coverage is. IMO the FG prospect coverage is the best in the business – they cover more prospects in more detail than anyone else. MLB does a top 30, BP does a top 10 + HM types. FG ranks every single player Eric thinks has a strong likelihood at being even a fringe major leaguer, and does so by sourcing a lot of information from a lot of people. It is an enormous project, and it’s not a surprise that it becomes really slow when his partner leaves (such as Kiley’s departure to ESPN).
The price of the quality FG provides is that it will roll out slowly, and someone will have to be at the back. Last year, the Dodgers were last or 2nd to last, and this year they were first (which is why they’re getting the re-visit now, which may replace the ‘2nd edition of the list’ that used to happen in the past, maybe?).
It sucks, but at least next year you’ll have it right away, and you already have multiple other outlets ratings of guys plus Eric’s viewpoints on the top guys who make the top 100+.
What’s most telling to me is that Ruiz has a 950ish OPS in AAA, but that’s only 21% above league average for a hitter. The PCL, man.
Yeah, it’s so hard to tell who can hit there (those of us who remember Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke, etc). But he did hit those two HR in two games 🙂
That would mean league average OPS is .785…which is, well, not ridiculous. However, if you’re going by wRC+ to come up with that 21%, that’s not really an apples to apples comparison with OPS because it values OBP higher than SLG. I can’t find real league average OPS stats, but Ruiz is in the 75th percentile in OPS (min. 100 PA, 89 qualifiers) and 14 of the 21 guys with a higher OPS are 26 or older (i.e., no longer developing). He’s the 7th youngest player in the bunch. His OPS matches Joey Bart (KR’s periphs are better tho) and KR is 1.5 yrs younger. I think you’re underestimating how big 21% better than average is in this take.
Per B-R, the AAA West is hitting .272/.354/.475 as a whole, for an .828 OPS. So…yeah, it’s a hitters’ environment. I guess that’s what happens when you boot five teams that play in more neutral parks and keep all of the launchpads in your league.
Per BA, the offensive percentile of the 9 parks in AAAW are 100 (Reno), 99, 98, 96, 95, 93 (OKC), 87, 85, and 72, with Tacoma as the only park that plays close-ish to neutral. I’m sure there are better park factors out there but that’s a decent rough and dirty look.
Thanks, slamcactus. July 1, he hits 2 more bombs at home in OKC to put his stat line at .290/.373/.645. That puts his OPS at 1.018, which is 23% higher than the league average of .829. In any case, the guy is clearly crushing.
The Athletic ran a piece speculating the Dodgers might trade Will Smith for a good/controllable frontline starter due to the org depth at C, and while this article backs that up, it’s still hard for me to imagine (though what do I know lol).
I’m really curious how they handle the infield moving forward, especially since no one knows when the DH will begin. Who plays SS next year? Is Lux going to hit more consistently? Is Michael Busch exciting enough to dream on? How do they position Muncy and Turner? Barnes is a FA; do they keep him around for Kershaw?
In Double-A, the league average K% is 25.5. Man, how the game has changed. Striking out 1 of every 4 plate appearances.