Padres, Maybin Both Win With Five-Year Extension

by
March 3, 2012

The Padres made one of the best moves of the offseason a year ago, acquiring Cameron Maybin from the Marlins for two middle relievers (Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica). The 24-year-old center fielder rewarded them with a 4.7 WAR season, and now they’ve rewarded him with a five-year contract extension. Dan Hayes of The North County Times first reported that a deal was imminent, and has since added details via Twitter…

Front office source confirms Cameron Maybin’s deal is for 5 years w/ an option for 6th. Ties up first 2 years of free agency. #Padres

Source: Cameron Maybin’s deal is for $23-25 million with option on $7-8 million range. #Padres

The team has since announced the deal. The contract buys out Maybin’s final season as a pre-arbitration player, all three years of arbitration-eligibility, and one free agent year. The option covers a second free agent year and could potential keep him in San Diego through age 30.

The deal is very similar to the one signed by Chris Young (five years, $25.5 million), and it’s probably not a coincidence that Josh Byrnes was the GM for both deals. Although both players signed their five-year contracts one year prior to becoming eligible for arbitration, Young’s didn’t kick in until the following year. The Diamondbacks will have him under contract for one season longer than the Padres will have Maybin, but the framework is very similar. Curtis Granderson (five years, $30.25 million) and Franklin Gutierrez (four years, $20.25 million) also signed extensions at similar points of their careers.

Agent Brian Goldberg appears to have gotten his client a nice guarantee especially compared to Young and Granderson, who had significant power advantages over Maybin at the time of their contracts. Power pays in arbitration and in deals like this, not defense. One full season worth of UZR (+9.5) and DRS (+11) doesn’t tell us much, but the scouting reports and reputation certainly back up Maybin’s work in the field. Offensively he performed considerably better away from Petco Park (.357 wOBA) than he did at home last season (.297), which isn’t a surprise at all.

Goldberg did well for Maybin, but the Padres got themselves a nice bargain even if he settles in as a four-win player going forward. His salary would have been depressed during his team control years, but the club will get plenty of surplus value barring injury or sudden collapse. There is risk as always, but Maybin’s skill set is well-suited for his home park and the team secured the prime years of a guy playing a premium up the middle position. Everyone should be happy.





 

Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.

45 Comments
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cpebbles
10 years ago

I wouldn’t put Maybin settling in as a 4-win player on the pessimistic side of likely outcomes. I don’t count on +10 defense from anyone without a lot of data to support it, and offensively the only change he made (Besides going to a park that punishes his game less than the standard park adjustment) is that he cut down on his strikeouts without any clear improvement in his contact skills.

Of course even if he’s a 2-2.5 win player it’s a solid enough deal.

0
jaywrong
10 years ago
Reply to  cpebbles

“I don’t count on +10 defense from anyone without a lot of data to support it.”

So you are completely ignoring the scouting reports and reputation?

“that he cut down on his strikeouts without any clear improvement in his contact skills.”

Why do they have to be mutually exclusive to be a positive?

C’mon buddy.

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cpebbles
10 years ago
Reply to  jaywrong

Yeah, I pretty much ignore scouting reports for the purposes of labeling anyone a +10 defender in CF after one season. I’d imagine anyone who has watched much of Colby Rasmus or Adam Jones the last few years does.

And yeah, you have to either swing and miss less or show better strike zone judgment for me to believe that your strikeout rate going from 28.2% to 22.0% is sustainable.

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Lawrence
10 years ago
Reply to  jaywrong

I agree…in most cases, it matters, how a guy finishes, not how he starts. AND!!!, it helps to actually watch the games on a regular basis to see guys like this improve.

I get the distinct impression a lot of times, that Padre critics dont even watch most of the games. They watch a handful of games and then they make these broad assumptions about how they think a player or the team as a whole will fail.

I get it…its a part of being a fan, I guess. But when a kid like Maybin has the year he had last season, the smarter thing to do is to look at what his potential will be, as opposed to what he didnt bring to the table, right off the bat.

And then there’s just common sense…CLEARLY, this is the kind of player that the Padres wanted to acquire, long term, for the ballpark they play 81 games in.

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cable fixer
10 years ago
Reply to  cpebbles

I agree with this assessment. 4 wins is probably closer to the top end than the bottom. +10 UZR defense–even with a long track record–isn’t guaranteed. Just look at another speedy CF’s (Michael Bourn) UZR splits. Still, +25 uzr over the life of the deal seems reasonable.

Offense is a concern too. 320 OBP/320 wOBA from a guy with that speed…leaves something to be desired. Still, given his age and pedigree…why not gamble on the upside if you’re the Pads?

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