Padres Snag Adam Frazier as They Make an NL West Push

Slowly falling behind in the divisional race, the Padres shook up their roster on Sunday, acquiring second baseman Adam Frazier from the Pirates. Frazier, under team control until the end of the 2022 season, is having easily the best season of his career, hitting .324/.388/.448 for a 130 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR. Except for the slugging percentage, all of these numbers are career-bests for the 29-year-old; that WAR figure was a new personal high before the All-Star Game was even played. Heading to Pittsburgh are three players: infielder Tucupita Marcano, outfielder Jack Suwinski, and right-handed reliever Michell Miliano.

Despite the fact that they’re 5 1/2 games out and behind two teams in the NL West as of Monday morning, it would be a gross exaggeration to call the 2021 season a disappointing one for the Padres. After all, they’re on pace for 92 wins, with the fifth-best run differential in the majors. The problem is that half of the teams with better run differentials also play in the NL West. That gauntlet essentially puts the Padres, Giants, and Dodgers into an “extra” grueling round of playoffs, with two of the three teams likely to be pushed into a single-elimination game after the regular season.

As of now, the Padres are a clear underdog, with a projected divisional probability that has faded from the 43.5% in the preseason, when it was expected to be a two-team race, to 11.2% before taking into account this trade. They aren’t in even remote danger of missing the playoffs — for now — but they certainly have an obvious preference for getting a free pass to the best-of-five Divisional Series, which basically doubles their chances of collecting the franchise’s first-ever World Series championship.

With Frazier on board, the Padres’ divisional probability bumps to 16.9%. This is projected to be a photo finish, so each win is quite important! But what will that role be?

For an acquisition of an All-Star second baseman, this move has surprisingly little to do with San Diego’s situation at second base. Ha-Seong Kim may have had a rocky start in the U.S., but Jake Cronenworth certainly hasn’t, and the former Ray has firmly seized control of the starting job, hitting .278/.352/.456, good for 3.2 WAR, and making the All-Star game himself. Like the Dodgers and Rays (among others), the Padres have developed a real liking in recent for extremely versatile players, allowing them to fill holes more easily that may be caused by circumstances. After the trade deadline, that gets a lot harder to do.

In this case, the acquisition of Frazier, who has played second, third, and all three outfield positions in the majors, allows the Padres to address their biggest holes in the lineup. (He’s also played shortstop, but it’s unlikely he’d be the theoretical Fernando Tatis Jr. replacement in the case of injury.) At this point, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are the weakest links in the lineup, and adding Frazier allows the Padres to reduce their playing time against matchups they don’t like and keep the struggling Jurickson Profar from being Plan B anywhere. Frazier will likely take at-bats from Myers in right field and indirectly from Hosmer at first, with Cronenworth taking even more of a share of the time there. As lousy as he’s been in San Diego, replacing Hosmer is a tough move given that he’s a highly-paid, well-liked veteran; the Padres may have instead coasted along with him if they had a five-game lead rather than faced a five-game deficit.

It’s probably a minor factor, but picking up Frazier also deprives either the Dodgers or Giants from getting to do so. With Corey Seager still out with a broken hand and Gavin Lux’s hamstring likely keeping him out past the trade deadline, the Dodgers are thinner than usual in the infield, and despite what it seems at times, they can’t just clone Chris Taylor and have him play two or three positions at once. Similarly, Donovan Solano is one of the weaker parts of San Francisco’s lineup, and both Brandon Crawford and Tommy La Stella are rehabbing injuries.

Now, you could say, “Dan, if the Padres wanted to upgrade at first base, they could have directly upgraded with someone like Joey Gallo!” This is true, but Gallo also would demand a larger return in prospects — I can’t imagine the Rangers accepting this package — and bringing him in would require the Padres to bench Hosmer or Myers and commit to keep doing it in 2022, short of the designated hitter rule coming to the NL for good.

Now, is Frazier actually a .324/.388/.448 hitter? Probably not. He’s had a real up-and-down career, and even in a great year, there’s a case from his peripherals that he’s in a bit over his head; ZiPS sees his BABIP for 2021 at about .315 for this season, around his career numbers. Frazier’s offense is very batting average-dependent, as he doesn’t have much power, meaning his peaks and valleys are going to be batted ball-driven, something far more volatile than power. It doesn’t close the gap entirely, but BABIP overperformance and underperformance explain a great deal of the gap between his terrific 2021 (.359 BABIP) and his lousy 2020 (.246).

Pirates fans are likely a little disappointed by the return for Frazier, as it’s not aligned with what you expect to get in return for a five-win player. But that’s not really his baseline, which I’m positive that neither San Diego nor the rest of the league (or at least the teams that are buyers this month) believed. Perhaps there was a huge Frazier offer out there ready to materialize, but with all sorts of infielder options possibly out there — like Trevor Story, Javier Báez, Eduardo Escobar, Andrelton Simmons, and possibly even Jorge Polanco — I think not.

The best-known prospect acquired in the trade is Marcano, from Tucupita, Venezuela, and the son of former indie league outfielder Raul “Tucupita” Marcano, who came in at No. 11 on our Padres list this spring. I was surprised this spring to see him up so quickly, given his most recent minor league performance was in the Midwest League. But the Padres liked his plate discipline, ability to make contact, and defense, and he hit .400 in the Cactus League. So does my colleague Eric Longenhagen, also of this esteemed site:

Traditionally, light-hitting middle infielders like Marcano have been undervalued in the public prospect sphere, then we (read: I) overcorrected a tad. Prospects like Marcano force one to ask, “What are indicators that this player with superlative contact skill will eventually hit for power and become relevant?” And I seek to answer this by evaluating the athleticism and body projection of the prospect in question. In the case of Vidal Brujan and Bryan Rocchio, there’s a level of athleticism and underlying physicality that I think will lead to more power.

In the case of Marcano (and Jose Devers with Miami), I’m more skeptical of the long term power projection. Marcano is rail thin, and slight of build, he’s not someone who I anticipate adding impacting strength even though he’s still very young. He’s a viable middle infielder and there’s a chance he just ends up with elite feel for contact and, even without power, and generates production commensurate with an average regular. But I think it’s more likely he ends up playing a utility role. I have a 40 FV on Marcano and think his ceiling is probably a 45.

ZiPS was skeptical of Marcano in the short-term entering the season, pegging him at .251/.293/.308 and a 65 wRC+, about a run under replacement level, with comps like Ozzie Guillen, Jeff Huson, and Tom Foley (the Expo, not the congressman). But ZiPS also saw him as a larger contributor in a few years, eventually having him peak around .270/.330/.330 as someone who has real value if his defense holds up at short. A solid performance for Triple-A El Paso at .272/.367/.444 bumps that up a little more, with ZiPS now having him peaking as about a two-win player.

Suwinski’s season fascinates me, and he’s someone who also caught Eric’s eye.

On-paper performance is especially important for a hitter like Suwinski because he’s a positionless defender who needs to rake to have any sort of big league role. Entering 2021, he’d only ever done enough to merit Honorable Mention inclusion on the Padres lists, and I’d often get little support from scouts when I mentioned him on the phone during sourcing calls. He’s had his best statistical season to date, slashing .269/.398/.551, and (while there’s a 2020 gap) his batted ball profile has shifted more toward pull and lift over the course of his career. I’ve added him to the 35+ FV tier of the Pirates list because something relevant about his swing and approach may have changed. Ultimately, because he lacks a true position, Suwinski’s likely role is as a platooning role player, and his chances of playing a significant role increase with the likely implementation of the universal DH.

Coming into the season, Suwinski wasn’t even close to being on the prospect radar, with a .195/.266/.337 line and -2.2 WAR projection, the latter thanks to ZiPS seeing him as a -9 defender in left field. But after a shockingly good stint for Double-A San Antonio, with a .269/.398/.551 line that ZiPS translates to .243/.356/.458, he suddenly becomes very interesting. Despite confusing the heck out of the computer, he now projects as a league-average DH at his peak, which makes him far more appealing than he was in 2019.

The last player in the trade is Miliano. Here’s Eric:

Michel Miliano has been the same guy since he was 17. He sits in the low-90s, has tantalizing physical projection and feel for spinning a curveball, but he struggles to repeat his release point and his command is bad as a result.

ZiPS agrees, seeing him right now as a reliever with an ERA around seven. Striking out 59 batters in 30 innings, as he’s done this year at two stops, makes you look, but 25 walks would make you second-guess that decision. That’s not hopeless — a lot of competent pitchers, such as Dellin Betances, had some real horror walk rates before they got it together — but he’s more of an interesting flyer at this point than someone the Pirates are likely to have in their plans.

Does Frazier vault the Padres to an NL West win? The competition is so fierce that even Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani can’t make that happen. But they are a better team than they were yesterday, without giving up any of their key prospects, and have an additional option for 2022, so there’s nothing to complain about here.