Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at St. Louis | 20:05 ET
Scherzer (113.2 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Martinez (106.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has once again exhibited its capacity to sniff out the Obvious, identifying today’s Nationals-Cardinals game as most likely to facilitate something wonderful. This is due in large part to the game’s probable starters, Max Scherzer and Carlos Martinez, each of whom rank among the league’s top-10 pitchers by WAR — both by the sort that’s calculated with FIP and also the sort that calculated with runs allowed. This is due, in smaller part, to a number of other reasons too inconsequential to discuss.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Blake Parker is a proven closer, but only down on the farm. Of the 32-year-old right-hander’s 117 professional saves, only three have been in a big-league uniform. The most recent came a week ago, with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Playing at Fenway Park, Parker entered with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning, and punched out Chris Young to close out a 6-3 win over the Red Sox.

He’s having an All-Star-quality year. In 39 relief outings, the first-year Angel has a 2.04 ERA and a 1.38 FIP, and he’s fanning batters at a rate of 13 per nine innings. The extent to which that’s a surprise is a matter of debate. His MLB opportunities have been at a premium in recent seasons, but Parker’s Triple-A efforts have been exemplary. Sandwiched around an injury-truncated 2015 were a 25-save campaign that included a 1.77 ERA and a 13.1 K-rate, and a 19-save campaign with a 2.72 ERA and A 12.7 k-rate.

Parker believes that closing in the minors helps prepare a pitcher for doing so in the majors — “you learn how to deal with the emotional stress that comes with pitching the ninth” — and he likewise feels it impacts one’s ability to handle high-leverage situations in preceding innings.

“They say the last three outs are the hardest to get,” said Parker. “But while they may be the toughest mentally, sometimes you get the back end of the order in the ninth. I’m not saying those guys can’t hit, but there is something to getting those crucial outs in the seventh and eighth. I think my experience closing in the minors helps me harness my emotions to do both.”

Harnessing emotions was essential when he came on to face Young — and bail out a struggling Cam Bedrosian — with the game on the line. Fenway Park was a cauldron of expectant energy, with 36,000 fans on their feet. It was white-knuckle time, but the righty wasn’t intimidated. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Arizona | 22:10 ET
Chatwood (93.2 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Greinke (102.1 IP, 73 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm suggests that tonight’s Rockies and D-backs game offers the greatest opportunity for thrills and/or delights. This is largely based on performance this year of the latter club and that club’s probable starter tonight, Zack Greinke. In the wake of last year’s uncharacteristically league-average performance and in the midst currently of a velocity decline, Greinke has nevertheless managed to produce fielding-independent numbers on par with his best seasons. As for Arizona, they continue to maintain the league’s top baserunning figure, having produced nearly two wins by that measure alone.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2017 July 2 signing period is set to begin on Sunday. Here is the 2017 J2 Sortable Board with tool grades and scouting reports for the players whom I believe to be the best in the class. The changes made to the J2 process when the last Collective Bargaining Agreement was ratified in November are significant and have impacted the way teams approach signing players; altered how a given class’s talent is distributed throughout baseball; changed players’ earning power; and, at least for now, forced prospects to consider how to best time their decision to sign.

Before diving into the details pertaining to this year’s class, allow me to suggest some prerequisite reading should this be your first time navigating FanGraphs’ scouty pages. If the 20-80 scale and scouting terminology is new to you, this piece will be helpful. If you’d like more context on the previous July 2 rules as we discuss the way the new CBA has changed them in this article, I suggest this.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan do an all-banter episode about Takuya Nakashima, Dustin Fowler, the latest on home runs and the baseball, an Aaron Judge intentional walk, too many Tylers, the significance of baseball’s lowest-ever average Leverage Index, the Reds’ still-disastrous pitching staff, and more.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Pineda (87.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (81.2 IP, 60 xFIP-)
One might be inclined to think that, on account of how good Chris Sale has been this year, that he’s certainly recorded the top expected FIP mark (xFIP-) among all qualified pitchers. It’s actually true that he’s done that. It’s also true that so has Lance McCullers, though. Entering play today, both pitchers have produced a park-adjusted xFIP 40% better than league average. Only one of them is expected to pitch tonight, however. McCullers is who.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you had told the Angels before the season started that they would be in the thick of the Wild Card race approaching Fourth of July weekend, it’s likely they would have been pleased. Our preseason projections suggested they were an 83-win team and so far they are on pace for 82 wins. They’ve outplayed their run differential and their raw statistics slightly, but they looked like a roughly average team and have played like a roughly average team.

What’s noteworthy is that they’ve managed to stay on this pace despite losing Mike Trout to injury more than a month ago. It’s not news that the Angels are as good as we thought they were, but the fact that they’ve stayed on track without the services of the game’s best player sent me searching. With all due respect to Martin Maldonado, Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons, and Eric Young (?!), it’s the bullpen that has stood out so far, and that bullpen has been led by Blake Parker.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you were to pick a face, a player, to represent where baseball is trending, Joey Gallo might be the one.

This post isn’t intended to serve as an endorsement of Gallo as an elite player, but rather to suggest that he embodies its trends as well as anyone. The game continues to include more home runs, more strikeouts, more walks, and fewer balls in play — to the angst of some (many?). Gallo is one of the Three True Outcome kings in the sport, a point detailed by one of FanGraphs’ community writers earlier this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I put on my dictator hat and suggested how I would fill out the National League All-Star team, if it was entirely up to me. Today, we’re going to do the American League, which is, in comparison, underwhelming. Actually, underwhelming is an underwhelming description for what it was like to assemble this roster after doing the NL yesterday. It was essentially an exercise in saying “wait, really, these are my choices?” over and over.

There are, of course, some really exciting talents in the American League. And there are guys having really great All-Star caliber seasons. But there are shockingly few players who fit both of those criteria, as basically all the big names that you’d expect to be here haven’t had seasons good enough to justify their presence. Mike Trout? Injured. Miguel Cabrera? 115 wRC+. Manny Machado? 86 wRC+. Josh Donaldson? Missed a good chunk of the first half, and hasn’t been great since coming off the DL.

As I noted yesterday, I lean towards the All-Star game being a reward for a player’s performance to this point, with track record a factor but a less important one than how you’ve played this year. That’s why they have the event every year; to honor the players playing like stars this season. In the first half of the 2017 season, the stars of the AL mostly haven’t played like stars, and the guys who have are not guys you would have pegged for the All-Star team before the year started.

So, prepare to be underwhelmed by the names to follow. This is just what the league has given us.

Read the rest of this entry »