Server Error in '/' Application.

Runtime Error

Description: An exception occurred while processing your request. Additionally, another exception occurred while executing the custom error page for the first exception. The request has been terminated.

Runtime Error

Server Error in '/' Application.

Runtime Error

Description: An exception occurred while processing your request. Additionally, another exception occurred while executing the custom error page for the first exception. The request has been terminated.

Projecting Dustin Fowler

On Tuesday, the Yankees called up infielder Tyler Wade in the wake of Starlin Castro’s injury. They dipped into their farm system again on Wednesday, calling up Miguel Andujar (3.6 KATOH, 2.6 KATOH+) to replace the injured Matt Holliday. And wouldn’t you know it, they did it again today. This time it’s Dustin Fowler getting the in place of Tyler Austin.

Fowler is easily the best prospect who was called up this week. He’s demonstrated a rare combination of power and speed in the minors, mashing 12 homers this year to go along with 13 steals. He’s also kicked in eight triples after lacing 15 last season. Fowler doesn’t strike out all that often, either. He’s whiffed 20% of the time this season, which puts him right around league average.

On defense, Fowler has primarily played center field, though he’s gotten regular reps at both outfield corners. He possesses plus speed, which is typically more than enough to man center field, but the metrics aren’t fond of him out there. Clay Davenport’s numbers have him as a -14 defender over roughly a full season of games in center between this year and last. Regardless, he should be more than fine in an outfield corner, which is where New York will likely use him for the time being.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Angels Won on a Walk-Off Strikeout*

I started blogging about the Mariners almost the instant they stopped being good. I went forward with that for some reason on a daily basis for something like a decade, and there was a whole lot of losing involved. As such, there are a lot of low points to pick from, and I don’t know when I experienced rock bottom, but I know when I felt particularly low. I can vividly recall a moment when something seemed to snap. The whole 2010 season was unfathomably bad, and it was a race to the finish line. September might as well have not existed, but it did exist, and toward the end of it, the Mariners played the Rangers, and the Rangers scored the winning run on a strikeout.

Fans of bad teams often say it’s as if their team finds new ways to lose. For me, that actually *was* a new way to lose. I’d never seen it. Many people had never seen anything like it. See, it’s extremely uncommon. And why wouldn’t it be? A strikeout is an out. A walk-off strikeout shouldn’t exist. But there’s room there for an opportunity; the door is cracked ever so slightly open. The Rangers won on a walk-off strikeout. And last night, the Angels did the same thing.

Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/29/17

2:12
Dan Szymborski: And away we go!

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was in a work conversation!

2:13
Nick: Is Beede still the Giants’ number 1 pitching prospect or has Suarez overtaken him?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: In my eyes he has, but some are going to quibble with that no doubt.  I’m not sure it’s *obvious*

2:14
ECinDC: Is it possible that Stras could be worth his extension? But really, he’ll opt out unless he’s hurt right?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: He could very well be.

Read the rest of this entry »


Assessing the Trade Value of Giancarlo Stanton

The Marlins are sellers this year. Adeiny Hechavarria is already gone. Kyle Barraclough, David Phelps, and A.J. Ramos are among the bullpen pieces that might be appealing. Marcell Ozuna is having a great year and has two more years of control after this one, so he would be a desirable piece. If the team opted to, they could get a haul for Christian Yelich, too. And if the team is truly selling for the future and wants to reduce future salaries either for a future owner or because that’s just what the Marlins do, then trading Giancarlo Stanton has to be an option, as well.

It’s not entirely clear how much value Stanton has in trade. He’s obviously been a very good player to this point in his career and has recorded a 130 wRC+ so far this year. The projections see him doing roughly that the rest of the way, as well, coming close to a four-win season. He’s also only making $14.5 million in 2017, which makes him quite valuable in the near term. Detracting from that value in the longer term is the $295 million owed to Stanton over the next 10 years, part of a deal that will pay him through his age-37 season. He also has a no-trade clause. Adding to the complexity is an opt-out clause Stanton possesses in his contract after the 2020 campaign. He’ll be finishing his age-30 season at that point and will be owed $219 million over the next seven seasons.

Given the size of his deal, the return for Stanton might not be great. For that reason and because he’s a good player now and because he’s likely to remain a good player for the next few years, it’s fair to question why the Marlins would bother moving him. It’s probably too easy just to say “Because that’s what the Marlins do.” But, well, that is what the Marlins do. That opt-out might end up being difficult to turn down, and the current owner, Jeffrey Loria, likely has no interest in paying a 30-plus-year-old slugger $30 million a year. There are also rumors that the Marlins will be sold at some point soon. Before teams are sold, we often see large contracts moved in order to make the team more attractive in terms of future commitments.

Read the rest of this entry »


Chris Gimenez on Being a Non-Pitcher Who Pitches

Chris Gimenez is good with a quip, and he came up with a classic earlier this month. Following a game in which he homered twice, the 34-year-old journeyman told reporters, “Hopefully I’m one of the better hitting pitchers in the league.”

Gimenez is, of course, a catcher by trade — but the lines are getting blurred a bit. He’s started 24 games behind the dish for the Minnesota Twins this season, but he’s also taken the mound six times. That’s rarified air. Researching the subject requires interpretation — for instance, was Willie Smith an outfielder or a two-way player in 1963 and 1964? — but it could be reasonably argued that Gimenez is tied with Eddie Lake (1944) for the most pitching appearances in one season by a position player.

More certain is the fact that Gimenez is the first player both to catch and pitch in at least six games, in the same season, since the late 1800s. And his versatility doesn’t stop there. Gimenez has also appeared in five games at first base, and one each at third base and in left field.

Gimenez talked about his crappy fastball and about his hopes of one day following in the footsteps of Campy Campaneris, earlier this week.

———

Gimenez on not thinking like a pitcher when he’s on the mound: “I think I’ve pretty much stuck to the catching side of the thinking. I feel like that’s the more beneficial side, because chances are — at least hopefully — I’m going to catch more games than I’m going to pitch the rest of the year. But it is good to have the two somewhat different mindsets.

“Being a catcher, you need to think along the same lines as a pitcher, so you’re essentially thinking like a pitcher back there. But when I’m on the mound, it’s completely different, because I want guys to hit it. Pitchers are usually pitching for no contact or weak contact, and I’m trying to throw it down the middle. They can try to hit it as far as they want. I know that hitting is extremely difficult. You can tell that from my career average.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 6/29/17

10:34
Eno Sarris: Headed up to LA tomorrow to see Junior Boys and Kilo Kish at the Globe.

12:02
Jose Berrios: Thanks for chatting.  How good a SP am I next year and beyond?

12:02
Eno Sarris: I’m a fan!

12:02
Eno Sarris: I’d call him a top 30/40 type

12:03
Tony: Eno,  it’s halfway through the season.  Time to admit the Cubs have some serious issues?  They still have the talent and the crappy division but there are holes that were not expected back in April.

12:03
Eno Sarris: I think they’ve always been looking for pitching

Read the rest of this entry »


Have Batters Become Too Comfortable?

During the most recent Sunday Night Baseball telecast, ESPN’s cameras captured a kiss Felipe Rivero planted on the cheek of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage.

Hey, Searage deserves it.

When one considers all the successful reclamation projects completed under Searage in Pittsburgh -— A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, Ivan Nova, and Rivero himself, to name a few — Searage has earned the admiration and respect of the pitchers in his care.

Pirates GM Neal Huntington joked two winters ago that reclamation-type pitchers should pay the Pirates to pitch in Pittsburgh.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for June 29, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Los Angeles AL | 22:07 ET
Kershaw (109.1 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Ramirez (86.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has once again selected a game featuring Clayton Kershaw, proving that it both (a) has the capacity to identify talented pitchers and (b) is also probably unnecessary. Shocked readers might note with shock that Kershaw doesn’t actually possess a perfect NERD score at the moment. The reason appears to be what is, for Kershaw, a subpar swinging-strike rate. Consider, for illustrative purposes, the following small table.

Kershaw, Swinging-Strike Rates
Year IP SwStk% Percentile*
2015 232.2 15.9% 98th
2016 149.0 15.3% 97th**
2017 109.1 12.7% 85th
*Among qualifiers.
**Kershaw didn’t qualify. This is rank if he had.

While Kershaw ranked either first or second by this measure relative to qualifiers in 2015-16, he currently sits 11th. This is likely of little consequence to Kershaw’s overall performance; however, it does appear to indicate that he’s been less dominant in 2017 by this one narrow definition.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »


David Price’s Peculiar Problem

I like when the analysis doesn’t have to get too low into the weeds. Yesterday, I wrote a little bit about the impressive Sean Newcomb. What makes Newcomb so impressive, at least for now? He’s throwing more strikes than he used to. In the minors, he had a strike problem. In the majors, he hasn’t had a strike problem. What could be simpler than that? Everybody knows what a strike is, and everybody understands how throwing more strikes is generally better for someone. I don’t know why Newcomb’s strikes have improved, but his mechanics look clean. So be it.

There are more than 200 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 pitches in the majors in each of the last two seasons. The biggest strike-rate improvement currently belongs to Craig Kimbrel. Behind him are Archie Bradley and Jimmy Nelson. They’ve all been terrific. Turning around, the biggest strike-rate decline currently belongs to Wade Miley, followed by Cole Hamels and David Price. Miley isn’t real good. Hamels had an injury. Price is our focus today. He’s long been a strike-thrower, up until now.

It’s interesting enough that Price has struggled to throw strikes for the first time in forever. Ditto pitches in the zone. There’s an obvious link between the two. But this doesn’t seem like just a regular story about a pitcher losing it. Price has only partially lost it.

Read the rest of this entry »


Picking the 2017 National League All-Stars

The All-Star game is just a few weeks away, and on Sunday, we’ll find out the results of the fan’s voting for the starters, as well as most of the reserves. In advance of the announcement, I’m going to give you my selections for how I would fill out both squads if MLB granted me totalitarian authority and let me fill all 32 spots. I’m sticking with the rules agreed to in the CBA, so I’m taking 20 position players and 12 pitchers, with each team sending at least one representative.

And while I’ll generally defer to players who are established stars over guys who are off to strong starts this season, I also believe that the game is designed to reward the players who are having the best seasons, so 2017 performance is the primary factor in determining who goes and who stays home. It’s not the only factor, but you have to be playing well this year to make my squad, and even if we expect significant regression in the second half, I’m still putting you on the team if you’re clearly either the best or second-best player at your position this year.

Read the rest of this entry »


Runtime Error

Server Error in '/' Application.

Runtime Error

Description: An exception occurred while processing your request. Additionally, another exception occurred while executing the custom error page for the first exception. The request has been terminated.