Yankees general manager Brian Cashman needed time and salesmanship to sell ownership on a dismantling at last year’s deadline, as he explained to FanGraphs earlier this spring.
It perhaps took less time to convince ownership to return to status as buyers, to build a potentially dominant bullpen, and to prevent — if only momentarily — the division-rival Red Sox from addressing one of their most glaring weaknesses.
The Red Sox need a third baseman — at least, if they’re not going to give Rafael Devers a shot, like I think they should — and maybe some more relief help. This isn’t any kind of secret. Dave Dombrowski is even openly talking about it. And Todd Frazier, a walk-year player on a team trading everything that isn’t nailed down, was an obvious fit. He’d have been a fit if they wanted to keep the spot open for Devers, since he could have played some first base too, potentially giving them an upgrade over Mitch Moreland if Devers came up and mashed.
Like every other contender, they could also use another reliever or two. Their bullpen has been good so far, but also heavily worked, and no one every really has enough good bullpen arms. The White Sox were also selling good relievers, including a young controllable arm that Jeff just wrote up today. A deal between the two Sox franchises seemed like an obvious fit.
So, of course, the Yankees are apparently getting in the way, and according to reports, are closing on a deal for Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle.
Source confirms reports by @JonHeyman and @Joelsherman1: #Yankees gaining momentum toward trade for Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 19, 2017
Chase Headley has been decent enough at third base that Frazier would probably play first base in New York, or at least give them options to run some platoons at the corner infield spots with Frazier bouncing between the two spots. But for New York, this is probably more about getting two more good arms for a bullpen that has been pretty lousy so far, and then keeping Frazier away from their division rival because why not?
Given what Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle cost, I’d imagine this trio is going to fetch a decent return, depending on how much of Robertson’s salary the Yankees are picking up. If they’re absorbing all of the ~$18 million he’s owed through next season, that might lighten the package a bit, but Kahnle was likely going to cost a lot, given his dominance this season and remaining years of control. Odds are the Yankees simply outbid the Red Sox, and I wouldn’t be surprised if making sure the Red Sox didn’t get better easily was at least partly about the reason the Yankees got involved here.
Since the deal isn’t yet done, we don’t know what price New York is paying, but I certainly wouldn’t want to try and come back against this potential bullpen in October. Kahnle, Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman would be a pretty rough group to try and score off of.
The Diamondbacks have added a big bat to the middle of their lineup, swinging a trade for slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez. In exchange for Martinez’s services, the Arizona sent Detroit a trio of minor-league infielders: Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King. I do not have a KATOH projection for Jose King, as all but 13 of his professional games have taken place in the Dominican. However, he signed for a mere $75,000 and didn’t even make the honorable-mention section of Eric Longenhagen’s Diamondbacks list. That tells you about all you need to know: he’s a low-probability lottery ticket.
Below are the projections for the other two players whom the Tigers receive. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
Dawel Lugo, 3B (Profile)
KATOH: 2.4 WAR
KATOH+: 1.3 WAR
Of the prospects headed to the Tigers, Lugo is the closest to the big leagues and is also the most promising. He’s spent all of 2017 at the Double-A level, where he’s hit a respectable .282/.325/.426. He hit a more impressive .311/.339/.492 last year between High-A and Double-A. Lugo makes a lot of contact while also hitting for a fair amount of power. Players who can do both of those things from a semi-premium position aren’t all that common.
That’s about where Lugo’s appeal ends, however. He rarely walks and is a non-factor on the basepaths. Despite having played shortstop, Lugo’s defense per Clay Davenport’s numbers place him a tick below-average at third, which jibes with Eric’s 40/45 fielding grade. Lugo is still just 22, but as someone who signed out of the Dominican several years ago, he’s unlikely to make any wholesale improvements at this point. Still, someone with his offensive skill set who can play a passable third base could be of some use in the near future.
To put some faces to Lugo’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Lugo’s Double-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues.
When it comes to making moves for pending free agents at the trade deadline, it’s hard to say that any pure rental is going to be a bargain. In recent seasons, the most successful trade for a soon-to-be free agent is probably the New York Mets’ acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers two years ago. Cespedes caught fire over the last two months of the season, putting up a 156 wRC+ and helping the Mets to the World Series. The cost was steep, however: part of Detroit’s return, Michael Fulmer, came in at 22 on Dave Cameron’s Trade Value Series this year.
If there’s a Yoenis Cespedes-type player available this year, it’s the guy whom the Arizona Diamondbacks just acquired. And they don’t appear to have conceded any top prospects for him, either, with Detroit opting for some players further away from the majors, potentially indicating where their future is headed.
Here’s the deal in full:
Arizona gets
Detroit gets
Arizona is win-now mode. Also, they don’t have a great farm system, and Daniel Descalso has been their regular left fielder of late. Even if the injured Yasmany Tomas returns, he’s still just a replacement-level player. J.D. Martinez, meanwhile, provides at least a one-win upgrade over the course of the rest of the season.
Nor does the price appear to have been particularly high. The Diamondbacks retain top prospect Anthony Banda. As for the players they dealt, Lugo was the Diamondbacks’ 10th-best prospect coming into the season. The 22-year-old second baseman has some power and is holding his own in Double-A. Alcantara is a strong-armed shortstop putting up an average line in High-A, while King is an 18-year-old infielder getting his first exposure in the US in Rookie-level ball in Arizona. Detroit seems to have opted for some lottery tickets in exchange for potentially the best hitter on the market.
You might be forgiven for not totally believing in J.D. Martinez. His career got off to a poor start, and of late, he can’t seem to stay healthy. You might even be forgiven for thinking that Martinez is an aging slugger in decline. He’s not that, though. Teammate Victor Martinez fits that bill, and J.D. certainly has the old-man skillset of power and walks while offering little on defense. J.D. Martinez is just 29 years old, though, and since he joined the Tigers in 2014, he has been one of the very best hitters in baseball.
A champion of the fly-ball revolution, Martinez has put up a 146 wRC+ since joining Detroit, which is ninth in baseball over that span, just behind Nelson Cruz, tied with Anthony Rizzo, and ahead of Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and Justin Turner.
Martinez isn’t relying on 2014 and 2015 to prop up his stats, either. Since the beginning of last season, his 148 wRC+ trails only Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Jose Altuve, and Daniel Murphy. This season, Martinez has been even better, hitting .305/.388/.630 with a 162 wRC+. It’s possible the season has flown a little under the radar, as his name is absent from the leaderboards. That’s only because Martinez missed the first month of the season with a sprained ligament in his right foot, however. As a result, he’s accumulated just 232 plate appearances, not enough to qualify for the batting title. If Martinez had hit 16 homers with a 162 wRC+ in April and May instead of May and June, he probably would have made the All-Star team. He didn’t, and while we are mostly talking about past performance, his projections look great, as well.
The Diamondbacks are officially going for it. Despite being 10 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, they are right in the thick of the Wild Card race, and with just three teams fighting for two spots, have a pretty good at reaching the play-in game. And today, their line-up just got a lot better.
Source confirms: #DBacks acquiring J.D. Martinez from #Tigers. First: @JonMorosi.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 18, 2017
J.D. Martinez was the best hitter available, as he’s now on year four of being an elite hitter. Since the start of the 2014 season, Martinez is ninth in MLB in wRC+, right between Anthony Rizzo and Justin Turner. He’s a beast.
With Yasmany Tomas on the shelf, the Diamondbacks had been using Gregor Blanco, Daniel Descalso, and Chris Herrmann in left field, so swapping those guys for one of the game’s best hitters is going to be a huge upgrade. The projections — which still don’t totally buy Martinez’s bat, thanks to his weak pre-2014 numbers — have him worth a little over a win over the remainder of the season, but you can probably bump that up to +1.5 WAR if you think ZIPS and Steamer are too conservative on his offensive production.
Given how competitive the Wild Card race looks to be, that win or two could be the difference between making it or sitting at home. And now sticking Martinez behind Paul Goldschmidt gives the Diamondbacks a pretty fearsome pair of hitters if they advance deep in October. Given how well the team is pitching, this makes Arizona a potentially tough postseason opponent, should they get there.
To land Martinez, the D’Backs are giving up three prospects. Nick Piecoro had the details.
Dbacks are sending prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King to the Tigers in exchange for J.D. Martinez.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) July 18, 2017
Obviously things can change during a season, but these are three kind of shocking names to be traded for an elite hitter, even a rental one. Eric had Lugo as the best prospect of the trio last winter, giving him a 40 FV and ranking him as the team’s 10th best prospect. Alcantara was in the others of note section. King wasn’t mentioned.
Lugo’s been fine in Double-A this year, but hasn’t done anything that would dramatically change his stock that I can see. Alcantara is running a 96 wRC+ in high-A ball, which lines up with Eric’s pre-season report of a future utility infielder or a lower-tier starter. King is an 18 year old in rookie ball.
These guys might turn out well for the Tigers. Perhaps Lugo is closer to being big league ready than we think. Maybe the market for rentals really has crashed.
But hard not to like this for Arizona. They get an elite hitter for the stretch run for three prospects that, to be honest, don’t look all that special. You never like giving up any potential, but for the present upgrade, this looks like Arizona did quite well.
| 6:29 |
:
What is tonight’s best matchup?
MIL (Guerra) vs. PIT (Nova) (19.7% | 15 votes)
TEX (Ross) vs. BAL (Bundy) (11.8% | 9 votes)
ARI (Ray) vs. CIN (Romano) (18.4% | 14 votes)
TOR (Happ) vs. BOS (Johnson) (7.8% | 6 votes)
CHC (Lackey) vs. ATL (Newcomb) (10.5% | 8 votes)
NYY (Cessa) vs. MIN (Colon) (14.4% | 11 votes)
SEA (Gaviglio) vs. HOU (Peacock) (1.3% | 1 vote)
TB (Snell) vs. OAK (Smith) (2.6% | 2 votes)
WAS (Jackson) vs. LAA (Chavez) (2.6% | 2 votes)
Other (10.5% | 8 votes)
Total Votes: 76
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| 6:32 |
:
With Carlos Correa now out, there is one fewer AL MVP candidate. Who is the favorite right now?
Mike Trout (18.2% | 19 votes)
Aaron Judge (55.7% | 58 votes)
Jose Altuve (3.8% | 4 votes)
Chris Sale (5.7% | 6 votes)
Mookie Betts (3.8% | 4 votes)
Jose Ramirez (3.8% | 4 votes)
George Springer (5.7% | 6 votes)
Corey Kluber (0% | 0 votes)
Still Carlos Correa! (1.9% | 2 votes)
Other (0.9% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 104
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| 8:58 |
:
Who’s having the best night?
Dbacks (60.4% | 26 votes)
Tigers (4.6% | 2 votes)
White Sox (25.5% | 11 votes)
Yankees (9.3% | 4 votes)
Total Votes: 43
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| 8:59 |
:
Who’s having the worst night?
Red Sox (29.2% | 12 votes)
Rockies (24.3% | 10 votes)
Any non-CHW/DET team looking to sell (26.8% | 11 votes)
Other? (19.5% | 8 votes)
Total Votes: 41
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| 9:01 |
: Hi everybody!
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| 9:01 |
: Yo
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The White Sox already traded their most valuable asset. By shipping Jose Quintana to the Cubs, Rick Hahn got the trade deadline moving. And you could safely assume that Hahn and the White Sox aren’t finished — David Robertson is likely to go somewhere soon. Ditto Todd Frazier. Ditto maybe a few other guys. The White Sox are selling, and this is what a sale looks like. There’s little sense in keeping present assets when the focus is squarely on the future.
It might feel like Quintana was the last major splash. Frazier won’t fetch very much, and Robertson comes with a pricey contract. I have a name for you, though, and it’s a name we’ve previously discussed. Now, around trade-deadline time, the prices for good relievers skyrocket. Every team in contention wants a better bullpen, and good relievers can be leaned on more heavily in the playoffs. It makes a certain amount of sense, and earlier, Dave submitted one reliever name who’s mostly off the radar. Me, I want to revisit Tommy Kahnle. Kahnle’s going to be a tricky one, because on the one hand, he’s just Tommy Kahnle, but on the other hand, holy crap. Maybe you haven’t seen what’s been happening.
Last Friday, the best player in the American League West returned after a nearly two month absence due to a broken left thumb. Today, the Astros announced that maybe the second best player in the AL West is going to miss the next two months due to a broken left thumb.
Astros have placed Carlos Correa on the 10-day disabled list with a torn ligament in his left thumb. He is expected to miss 6 to 8 weeks.
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 18, 2017
Trout had the UCL in his thumb repaired, going on the DL on May 29th, and then he returned on July 14th. Assuming Correa’s injury is of similar nature and requires a similar amount of time away, Correa would be looking at a return in early-to-mid September. That would give him a few weeks to get back up to speed before the postseason begins.
While this is a blow to the Astros, the enormous early lead they’ve built allows them to absorb this better than most contenders. With a 15 1/2 game lead over the second place Mariners, their chances of winning the division, even without Correa, are still quite high. The real concern here is whether this is something that might linger and affect him in October.
In Correa’s absence, we’d expect either Alex Bregman or Marwin Gonzalez to take over as the everyday shortstop, with the other manning third base. Both have played the position previously, so it will depend on whether the team prefers to move Bregman back to the position he played in college and the minors, or whether they prefer to keep him at third base, since that’s where he’ll play when Correa returns. Gonzalez’s offensive explosion this year means the team has a reasonable fill-in, regardless of how they line up the defense.
I do wonder if this will nudge the Astros towards adding a corner outfielder at the deadline, however. Gonzalez had drawn 23 starts in left field, his most at any position, and if he’s an everyday infielder now, the team will have to lean more heavily on Nori Aoki or Jake Marisnick. You probably don’t want either of those guys as an everyday player in October, so adding an LF upgrade could provide some insurance for the team’s offense in case Correa’s return doesn’t go as well as hoped, or if the injury saps him of any power after he returns.
The Astros have the benefit of not needing to overreact to this news, but this does add some uncertainty to the mix. Depending on what is available, it’s probably not a bad idea for the Astros to look around for some corner outfielders now, especially if they can find a solid bat who swings from the left side.
You may have noticed, especially if you’re a Baltimore Orioles fan, that run-scoring has been trending up as the season has progressed. This isn’t new, or particularly surprising, as the coming of summer turns up the heat, enabling fly balls to carry farther.
PITTSBURGH — Travis Shaw isn’t caught up in trends.
In a season when so many hitters are investigating their launch angles and trying to lift balls up into the mysterious jet stream that has settled over major-league playing surfaces, Shaw is engaged in the exact opposite endeavor. He is trying to put the ball on the ground, and he’s in the midst of a breakout season.
The Red Sox would love to have a mulligan on the December multi-player deal that sent Shaw and two prospects to Milwaukee for Tyler Thornburg, who is out for the season after surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome. Entering play Tuesday, Shaw was slashing .293/.361/.564 with 20 homers, acceptable defense at third base, and a 2.7 WAR. He was tied as the 22nd most valuable position player in the game to start the day.
Of course, this is a different hitter than the one whom the Red Sox traded away.
“Philosophy, honestly,” said Shaw of the reason behind his breakout with the Brewers. “Everyone talks about launch angle, launch angle, launch angle. This year, I’ve tried to hit the ball on the ground more. Everyone is trying to hit it in the air. For me, when I try to hit the ball on the ground, I hit more home runs. I am more consistent with my swing.”
This seems counterintuitive, bizarre. But it’s working. For the first time in his brief major-league career, Shaw is hitting more ground balls (44.5%) than fly balls (36.0%). Throughout most of his minor-league career, he was a fly-ball hitter. And yet the quality of his contact has improved as he has tried to hit balls into the infield turf.
“The air-out/ground-out thing is completely opposite of what it’s been for my career,” Shaw noted.
