Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: We Live Inside a Dream

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. I had two ESPN Insider pieces go up yesterday and today, so head over there if you’re interested in checking those out. Let’s chat…

12:03
Tommy N.: Has your outlook on Joey Lucchesi improved this year? What do you think he can be?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, he went from being an honorable mention on the Padres list to a high-probability 40 for me, a likely backend starter.

12:04
Gary: How do you project someone like Joey Wentz? Looks like a great season on paper, but reportedly not with great velocity. With a guy who has shown better velo in HS, what are the chances it takes a jump?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Most guys never throw harder than they do in high school. You’re pitching more and toeing the rubber with less rest than you were in high school. Wentz wasn’t all that projectable, physically, in high school and velo peaks and valleys. I think he’ll be fine because the curveball and changeup will both be very good, but I wouldn’t expect him to have an elite fastball or anything like that.

12:06
Jonathon: Is there a good way to reach out to companies you want to work for as a junior in college?

Read the rest of this entry »


Mariners Prospect JP Sears Is a Strikeout Machine

When Seattle selected JP Sears 333rd overall in this year’s draft, they knew they were getting a pitcher with a propensity for punch outs. In his junior season at The Citadel, the 21-year-old left-hander fanned 142 batters — the most in Division I baseball — in 95.1 innings. What they couldn’t possibly have known was that his strikeout rate would rise once he got to pro ball.

In 17 relief appearances between short-season Everett and Low-A Clinton, the 11th-round pick struck out — drum roll, please — a staggering 51 batters in 27.2 innings. He also allowed just 13 hits and two earned runs.

You can’t hit what you can’t see, and according to Clinton Lumber Kings pitching coach Doug Mathis, that’s the secret to the southpaw’s success.

Read the rest of this entry »


Is the LeMahieu Shift the Boldest One Ever?

In the age of the shift, it takes a lot for a particular defensive alignment to merit real attention.

But over the weekend, the Diamondbacks managed to do just that, utilizing what appears to be the most dramatic shift in recent history — notable even more so because the park at which they did it, Coors Field, features one of the game’s largest outfields.

We’ve seen about every variety of infield shift over the last four years, but we’ve never witnessed anything quite like what the Diamondbacks employed against DJ LeMahieu.

That gets your attention. That is bold.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Vision and Data Fuel Opportunity for Tommy Pham

A few weeks ago, colleague Jeff Sullivan wrote that Tommy Pham is the best player on the Cardinals. It’s hard to argue. With a month to go in what has been a breakout season, the 29-year-old outfielder is slashing .311/.407/.522, and he has 19 home runs in 431 plate appearances. He attributes his success to two things.

“Vision,” said Pham. “I got my contacts squared away this year, and that’s helped me improve tremendously. I’d say we could start there. The other thing is that I’ve put myself in a position to where I’m playing every day. In previous years I played for stretches, but then I’d sit on the bench. Last year I had an .870 OPS in the middle of August, then I basically became a designated pinch hitter. In 2015, I had an .824 OPS in my rookie season. I’ve always produced. It’s just that I’m playing every day now, so you get to see more.”

His production has never been better, and seeing the ball better is clearly helping.

“Just look at the numbers, man — I was striking out 38% last year,” stated Pham, who elaborated that depth perception was the issue. “Now I’m striking out 15% less. That means I’m putting more balls in play, which means I’m going to have better results.”

He’s well-versed in more than just probability. The Las Vegas native is a big believer in using any and all data to his advantage. Pham — an affirmed FanGraphs reader — studies his stat page to see which aspects of his game need improvement. If data shows that he’s a negative in a specific area, he strives to turn it into a positive. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: The FanGraphs Audio Body Episode

Episode 763
The average American man is roughly 5-foot-9 and 195 pounds. The most notable major-league player with those measurements isn’t actually American, but he is a catcher. Because American men have the body of a catcher. This revelation and others on this edition of FanGraphs Audio featuring Jeff Sullivan.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: August 28-September 1

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1105: We Want a Hit

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the strong response to their raffle for Hurricane Harvey relief, the Justin Verlander trade, a new NCAA softball rule, and the Padres relative to the NL’s other worst teams, then bring on FanGraphs writer Eno Sarris and former Red Sox outfielder (and owner of one major league hit) Alex Hassan to discuss whether an average non-athlete could get a hit in an MLB season.

Read the rest of this entry »


Projecting Jack Flaherty

Although St. Louis’s 67-66 record puts them 5.0 games out of a Wild Card berth, our projections continue to give them a still-realistic 13.0% chance at cracking the playoffs due to the talent on their roster. Mike Leake wasn’t helping much, as the veteran righty had allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts, yielding a protuberant 10.24 ERA. St. Louis had apparently seen enough, trading Leake to Seattle. In his place, they’ve called up top prospect Jack Flaherty to make his major-league debut tonight at San Francisco. Flaherty ranked No. 57 on Eric Longenhagen’s updated top-100 list.

Flaherty was nothing short of excellent in the minors this year, pitching to a stellar 2.18 ERA in 25 starts between Double-A and Triple-A. Most impressively, he struck out 25% of opposing batters while walking just 6%. If you’re looking for a nit to pick, it’s that Flaherty isn’t much of a ground-ball pitcher and, largely as a result, was a little homer-prone in his 15 Triple-A starts. But otherwise, his recent minor-league track record is impeccable.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Indians Look Like AL Favorites

There has been a changing of the guard in the American League as we have a new run differential leader: The Cleveland Indians (+155).

The Indians, thanks to an outstanding August, have jumped the Houston Astros (+153), the AL’s top club of the first half, and have possession of the game’s No. 2 run differential, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers (+209). The Indians completed a 19-9 record for August with a sweep of the Yankees on Wednesday, and posted a plus-58 run differential for the month. Read the rest of this entry »


Is the Yankees’ Fastball Approach Working for Everyone?

Maybe you’ve noticed that Masahiro Tanaka is a little different these days. His recent good stretch has coincided with a trend we noticed a while back: he’s not really throwing the fastball any more. He’s not alone on the Yankees — it looks like it’s a team-wide phenomenon. But is it working for every Yankee?

Read the rest of this entry »