Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: We Live Inside a Dream

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. I had two ESPN Insider pieces go up yesterday and today, so head over there if you’re interested in checking those out. Let’s chat…

Tommy N.: Has your outlook on Joey Lucchesi improved this year? What do you think he can be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, he went from being an honorable mention on the Padres list to a high-probability 40 for me, a likely backend starter.

Gary: How do you project someone like Joey Wentz? Looks like a great season on paper, but reportedly not with great velocity. With a guy who has shown better velo in HS, what are the chances it takes a jump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most guys never throw harder than they do in high school. You’re pitching more and toeing the rubber with less rest than you were in high school. Wentz wasn’t all that projectable, physically, in high school and velo peaks and valleys. I think he’ll be fine because the curveball and changeup will both be very good, but I wouldn’t expect him to have an elite fastball or anything like that.

Jonathon: Is there a good way to reach out to companies you want to work for as a junior in college?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d ask your academic adviser or someone with more corporate knowledge than I do. I was never one to network for the sake of networking, just something about it that felt uncomfortable to me.

PF: Acuna or Vlad? Who do you take?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Mac: Since mejia at 3b for all was announced a few hours after last week’s chat ended, what’s your take on it and what do you feel he is long-term position wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have none until I see him play there. If I had to pick a position for him, it’d be catcher. For reasons that I hope are obvious. Mejia still has aspects of catching to refine but I haven’t heard anyone say he’s a lost cause back there.

Ed: Is the 2019 draft class another 2015 in terms of shortstop depth? Bobby Witt and Rece Hines at high school level, Logan Davidson, Drew Mendoza and Nick Quintana at the college level all seem to go very high in the draft. And who among the college bats stands out to you the most so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Witt is a yes for me but I haven’t seen Hines. Carter Young is a name to add. I’m not certain any of the college guys you mentioned stay at SS, in fact I think Quintana and Mendoza are a firm ‘no’ for me already.

Eric A Longenhagen: I quite like Jeremy Eierman for 2018.

Lilith: Have you been impressed at all by Jeter Downs? Could he become a top 100 prospect in the next year or so? What are your thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Opinions on Downs are all over the place because some think he stays at short, some think he hits, some think he does one of those, some think he’ll do none. For me, he’s a 2B who has enough hitting ability and power to have a shot to be an everyday guy.

Jack: Gohara may start tonight for Atlanta. What should we expect from him next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Assuming he keeps his body in check (he’s big, especially for his age) then he should just be what you’ll see in his first start. Mid-to-upper 90s with a good slider.

Davell: Did the Cubs get a steal with Nelson Velázquez?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has looked good and may have been under-valued on draft day due to a hamstring injury that limited his mobility during the spring. Ask me about him again next week after I’ve seen him three more times. AZL Cubs are in the finals.

Lilith: If you had to choose one trio, who would you take? Senzel – Trammell – Okey (Reds 2016 draft), or Greene – Downs – Fairchild (Reds 2017 draft)? Could you explain why?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2016 Trammell > Downs by a wide margin right now.

LegallyEagle: How many innings should the Dodgers limit Walker Buehler? Would it be risky, even if he’s pitching well, to put him on a playoff roster (presuming they make the playoffs) to add even more innings?

Eric A Longenhagen: No magic number. If he says he feels good and his stuff is still great, I’m riding the wave as long as possible, even if it means starting him later next year. We’re at that time of year where chasing the ring usurps all else.

Dave: Will Norge Ruiz be in Oakland’s rotation at some point next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure he’s all that good. Looked very relievery to me this summer.

Aussie Bossy: Are Lewis Thorpe‘s numbers encouraging? How has his velocity look?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s good he made it through an entire season without a DL stint. Mostly low-90s last I checked, though it was a while ago.

Nick: Why do certain players have random power spikes for one season of their careers (i.e. Joe Mauer and Jacoby Ellsbury)? Is it just luck/random variance or is it an adjustment they made that year but “forgot” the next?

Eric A Longenhagen: Variance

BK: Any chance we see Acuna in Atlanta this year? Or are the Braves playing with the service clock?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not slow-rolling other promotions, so maybe we see him for a little bit. But I have no knowledge of it ahead of time.

rqiii: What is a fair comp for Jonathan Machado? He has had Ichiro comps in the past, but is someone like Jon Jay more realistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Ichiro comps are probably refering to his style of hitting, not the kind of player he’s going to be. Ichiro was 80 hit, 80 run, 80 glove, 80 arm at peak. Machado isn’t that guy. Nobody is that guy. I think Machado has good feel to hit and some leadoff hitter traits, unsure what kind of physicality he’ll have in his 20s

Dylan: Alex Speas seems to be pitching a lot better of late, albeit in 2 inning stints. Is this an indication they’re looking at him as a reliever or is he just young?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thihnk they should keep trying to develop him as a starter but I think he’s more likely a high-octane bullpen arm.

t: So JP Crawford got it going and received his call-up, basically right on schedule. What’s your impression given the ups and downs he’s had?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be a good all-around player. Jordy Mercer has been a 1.5 WAR shortstop this year, not hard to envision Crawford hitting better than Mercer.

Fred: Are Jahmai Jones‘s tools in the same ballpark with Jesus Sanchez and Estevan Florial?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jones is a much different player than the other two. Different build, more under control and  about hard, low-lying contact than Florial’s extreme violence or Sanchez’s strength.

Rogelio: Thoughts on Rogelio Armenteros? Is he a 4th starter at best, or can we hope for more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think #4/5 starter is a realistic and valuable outcome. Deep repertoire of fringe to average stuff, deceptive. Could be a swingman, 6th starter type a la Josh Collementer but I think Armenteros has better stuff.

Erykah Badu: Is Akil Baddoo more talented than I am?  Is is a legit prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Why don’t you call Tyrone and ask him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s legit.

Peter: What can you tell us about Aramis Ademan that wasn’t in your recent Top 10 update?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s an instinctive player with an advanced bat and glove for his age, has some physical projection, might move off SS but has a decent chance to hit enough to play 2B if he does. I wrote up Ademan here if you’d like more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-424/

Ryan: Do the scouting reports justify the solid season Duplantier has had?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Gavin: Last week, you commented that you were too optimistic with the 50-grade you gave Greg Allen. Does an injury really affect your overall outlook of him that much?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just keep hearing ‘lack of power’ over and over again, and I know he had a wrist injury (in May?) and those can linger, but I was hearing that last fall and early this spring. I’d probably have him bumped down to a 45 right now.

Drew: You were blowing up my twitter timeline with this Sam Huff kid. Anything there? I had never heard of him before.

Eric A Longenhagen: He just had a monster night last night. He has power but is repeating AZL and doing a lot of DH’ing. It was nice he had a big night (though the Rangers lost) in front of family (Huff is from the Phoenix area) but he’s more of a fringe prospect

Drew: Higher ceiling: Crouse or Ragans? #3 potential for both?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess you could argue Crouse has the higher ceiling because there’s more velocity and a better breaking ball, but I’m taking Ragans all the way. Crouse could be a backend bullpen guy, Ragans, yes, I thin could be a 3.

Anthony: Hey Eric, I was curious how you got started in scouting and if you’d have any recommendations for making connections? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I bean weirdly taking notes at sporting events when I was 12 or so but only really started taking it seriously in college. Go to games, take notes, listen to scouts, and worry about improving yourself rather than ‘connections’ and just see where things go.

Jack: Who’s the weakest prospect with a single dimension to which you’ve attached a 70+ grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dayon Olmo

Eric A Longenhagen: 80 run

Anthony: What do you think of Kervin Suarez in the Red Sox system?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s short but he good feel to hit (and he hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long) and I think has some room to fill out. I have him projected as a utility guy for now.

NYTT: Thoughts on Max Fried‘s first start for the Braves?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t see it but heard he was okay. low-90s, curveball was great, strike throwing and changeup were not.

Anthony: Are there any pitchers who you would be comfortable projecting as a starter with only two viable pitches? Either because of the quality of the stuff or extremely advanced command?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and you’ve nailed the two things that the hypothetical pitcher would need to have to get away with that.

Eric A Longenhagen: As far as names go, I can’t think of one off the top of my head. The Rich Hills of the world don’t typically reveal themselves as prospects, it’s a late-career thing.

Erix: I don’t know what to think about Danny Jansen

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m flummoxed too, other Eric.

Drew: I know you preach patience, are you worried about Swanson, or just needs some time to develop with the bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Starting to hit though, right? .340/.430/.470 or something like that since he was brought up in August.

Mike: Tell me about the Cubs’ system as of right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lacks a several high-end guys up top because of trades but has young depth at lower levels from Latin American signings and a host of college pitchers who might play middling but valuable big league roles.

SC: You’re one of the only analysts I’ve seen vault Logan Allen all the way into top-100 consideration. Any thoughts on why others might not be quite as high on him? Is it a perceived lower ceiling thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s easy to forget about him in a system as loaded as SD’s

Drew: Are you concerned about Pavin Smith’s lack of power? How many dingers does he need for his profile to work?

Eric A Longenhagen: League average at 1B this year has been .260/.340/.480. Yes, I think he might have trouble clearing that SLG bar, which is why I had him down a bit on my draft rankings. He might make up for it if he hits enough, though.

Nipsey: I know he isn’t exactly a prospect any more, but do you see Derek Fisher being a starting outfielder or more of a fourth?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has the tools to start but they play down at times, especially on defense. the corners are really clogged in Houston and I think Fisher fits best in left field, so maybe he gets squeezed into a role beneath his tools. It’s a great problem for Houston to have, though.

Andy: Nolan Jones and Will Benson outlook? Top 100 chances?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both of them but not on the 100 just yet. I think there’s some risk Jones is a 1B at maturity but think he’ll hit. Benson obviously has a huge ceiling if he ever does but he’s still a bit of a project.

Roger: What’s your take on 5’10” Nicaraguan OF Ismael Munguia on Giants AZL team?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a great little sparkplug with limited physical projection. I like him as a sleeper. He’s going to have to hit a ton.

Peter B.: Dustin May is pretty good right now, but many say he has some filling out to do and can gain some serious velo on his stuff. Do you agree? What type of pitcher can he be if so?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure he’s going to fill out. He’s tall and lanky but has a very narrow build. He strikes me as the type who will be skinny for a long time. I think he’ll be a command-first guy with a good slider. He’s a potential league average start for me.

Duhbear: Some Rays prospects have been having some interesting seasons and are going to have quite a hard time figuring out their 40-man. Speaking of, both Ciuffo and Ott need a spot. Have you heard anything different about either one of them that’s lead to their noteworthy performances? Also, Justin Wiliams…

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Ciuffo’s glove back there and am surprised at how patient he’s been this season. He’s more of a backup/third catcher for me. Ott is a funky, bespectacled, low-slot lefty so you know what that means. I’m not immediately familiar with the rest of TB’s 40-man two know if those two fit in.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been skeptical of Williams but he is having a great season, not sure if anything has changed or if I was just light on him.

Mark: I know its the “Marlins”, but does Brian Anderson project to play 3rd everyday?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote him up as an average everyday 3B, yes.

Timmy: Are you worried about Pint’s walk/strikeout numbers? I knew he was wild but he’s not really striking people out

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if I’m concerned  but it is certainly weird for someone with that kind of stuff to not be missing more bats, even if they were assigned pretty aggressively.

Jacob: How big a leap did Halos system take this year, especially Jaime Barria? (Still at best a mid rotation arm, just his quick development)

Eric A Longenhagen: A pretty significant one, I’d say. Jones struggled for a while but righted the sup, Marsh and Adell have looked terrific while dealing with some health issues, there are several intriguing Latin American pitchers in the low minors, I like Canning and Pearson, etc. Still not a great system but definitely better.

Rankings: For the Top 100 rankings, can you publish where the FV cutoffs are?

Eric A Longenhagen: All the draft FVs are exactly the same, which will give you a good idea of where the tiers stop and start.

Jose R.: Beyond “A-ROD’S NEPHEW”, is there anything of note to Joe Dunand?

Eric A Longenhagen: Big power for an infielder.

transparent: Thinking of taking a trip to Arizona for the first week of AFL. Any tips (can you easily make the night game from most midday games?)

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, even with ever-worsening Phoenix traffic you can do the day and night games in the same day. If you’re going to a game at Scottsdale Stadium, get there early because parking is no bueno. Instructional league is still going on during the first week of AFL so you can hit those games, too, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Jeff Conine: Which round does Griffin Conine get picked in next June?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1

Laura Palmer: Since you have alluded to it now and previously, can you give us one feeling you have about the finale of Twin Peaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jill hated it. I quite enjoyed it.

Eric A Longenhagen: That will be all for me this week. Thanks for stopping in.