Feel the deadline fever. First it was Jaime Garcia getting traded again, now it’s Melky Cabrera on the move. Try to contain your excitement.
Sarcasm aside, the Royals needed an OF/DH type, given that Jorge Soler has been a bust and Alex Gordon is hitting like a Hall of Famer, in that his batting line is probably what we’d project Tim Raines for in 2017. Royals outfielders have combined for an 83 wRC+ this year, so any reasonable facsimile of a Major League hitter is an upgrade.
Melky Cabrera isn’t anything special, but he is a reasonable facsimile of a Major League hitter. He’s got a 105 wRC+, thanks to his regularly elite strikeout rate, as he’s basically the embodiment of the recent Royals offense. He’s got enough power to not be a slap hitter and hits his way to a decent on-base percentage, so Cabrera remains a league average bat, or something in that range.
Defensively, Cabrera remains a problem, as he’s run consistently below-average marks for his work in left field. He’s not Matt Kemp or anything, but he is a bit of a liability in the field, so if the Royals use Melky to displace Alex Gordon, they’ll be giving up some defensive value for the offensive upgrade. But given that Gordon has a 58 wRC+, it’s probably not so easy for them to keep him in the line-up everyday at this point, even with his glovework.
Mostly, Cabrera gives the Royals options, as they can run an offense-first line-up on days they don’t expect outfield defense to matter as much, but keep Gordon on the field when guys like Jason Vargas pitch. With a Wild Card game potentially in their future, making sure you can match-up for a winer-take-all game is a pretty good idea.
To land Melky, the Royals gave up the pitching prospect Eric Longenhagen ranked as their sixth best minor leaguer this winter, but A.J. Puckett probably wouldn’t crack the top 20 in a better farm system. Here’s Eric’s write-up:
The command/changeup pitching-prospect archetype is one more commonly found among left-handed pitchers, who use that combination of skills to attack right-handed hitters. A.J. Puckett isn’t a left-handed-pitcher but possesses the command/changeup profile anyway. Puckett’s fastball sits 90-93, will touch 94 and is only average despite his command of it due to a lack of plane and movement. His changeup, 82-85 with big fade, regularly flashes plus and should mature there. His curveball is inconsistent, in part because Puckett doesn’t reliably get over his front side to generate power downward movement, but the pitch should be average with more reps. He’s an above-average athlete.
Because Puckett’s breaking-ball projection is limited, so too is his ceiling. He projects as a quick-moving No. 4 or 5 starter.
Puckett’s spent the year in high-A ball as a 22-year-old putting up pedestrian numbers, which isn’t what you really want out of a guy with limited stuff. Maybe he’ll move to the bullpen and become something interesting, but Puckett doesn’t look like a guy the Royals will miss all that much.
The other prospect in the trade, Andre Davis, was an 8th round pick in 2015, signed for $25,000, and is running a 4.83 ERA in low-A ball as a 23-year-old. There’s a reason we’ve literally never written about him on FanGraphs. That said, he’s a 6’6 lefty who has a nearly 4:1 K/BB ratio and Baseball America’s 2015 draft report profile said he had “premium velocity”, noting he touched 95-98. So there’s some raw material here.
Still, trading two guys whose upside looks like maybe MLB relievers is pretty easy when you’re in the playoff race, and Melky should help the Royals down the stretch and in a potential play-in game. If they can leverage his bat and Gordon’s glove in a job-share situation, they might have a reasonable left field combination going forward.
