As one of the flag bearers of the fly-ball revolution — or the air-ball revolution as Daniel Murphy has suggested rebranding it — I thought it would be appropriate to check in on the status of the batted-ball trends after we’ve reached a stabilization point for air balls. And for many regular position players, we have reached a stabilization points for line-drive, fly-ball, and ground-ball rates.

I provided an update midway through April after a barrage of posts about the subject this spring.

Across the majors, fly balls (35.7%) are up 1.1 percentage points from last season and 1.9 points from 2015*. Ground-ball rate (44.3%) is down slightly and at its lowest level since 2011. Ground balls are down from 0.4 points from last season and 1.0 point from 2015. In an industry always looking for an extra 2%, the emergence of even slightly a slightly higher air-ball rate might be indicative of something — particularly since pitches in the bottom part of the strike zone have increased by more than three points this season. Those are pitches that should be even more difficult to lift.

*Numbers entering play Monday.

Moreover, average launch angle is up a tick (to 10.9 degrees) this season, compared to 10.8 degrees last season and 10.0 degrees in 2015, launch angle on pitches in the lower third of the strike zone has increased from 5.1 degrees in 2015, to 5.8 degrees in 2016, to 6.0 degrees this season, according to Statcast data.

While the slight increase in air balls league wide is perhaps explained by something else — or perhaps by many other things — or is perhaps just the product of random variance, there are definitely individual batters who’ve made a concerted effort to changing their swing planes. Which players, specifically, have meaningful altered their batted-ball distributions?

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Episode 744
Alex Stumpf covers the Pirates and Duquesne basketball for The Point of Pittsburgh. He’s also (a) FanGraphs’ writer-in-residence for the month of May and (b) the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 0 min play time.)

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This is Alex Stumpf’s sixth piece as part of his May residency at FanGraphs. Stumpf covers the Pirates and also Duquesne basketball for The Point of Pittsburgh. You can find him on Twitter, as well. Read the work of previous residents here.

Lowering the hands has become the “have you tried turning it off and back on again?” of the baseball world. Eric Thames lowered his hands and was one of the hottest hitters in April. Aaron Altherr lowered his hands and has been one of the hottest hitters of May. Miguel Sano, Jean Segura, Jake Lamb and plenty of others have done the same. If your favorite team has a slugger who’s broken out in recent years and you want to know why, check if his hand position has changed. Chances are it has.

Mechanically, it makes sense as to why it’s catching on. According to Phillies hitting coach Matt Stairs — who’s an advocate for low hands — when a batter goes to the launch position with low hands, he goes straight to the baseball. If the hands are high at the start, the batter has to drop them and then explode to the ball. Lowering the hands eliminates an unnecessary movement and allows the batter to get the ball in the air better. Bat speed also tends to go up, which is a good way to counter fastballs that are getting faster almost every year.

Stairs lived through the struggles of having poorly positioned hands during his major-league career. In his days as a pinch-hitting extraordinaire, he liked having his hands chest high. When they rose, that’s when his trouble started.

It took Stairs 10 years before he finally figured out how to keep his hands in the right spot. When he started his first spring training as a hitting coach this year, he had a simple message to his young pupils: “Don’t take as long as it took me to figure it out.”

Recently, Stairs noticed that, during Maikel Franco’s slump, his hands were too close to his face. They worked on lowering them again, and Franco rattled off hits in eight consecutive games after making the adjustment. Franco didn’t know they were a problem until Stairs spotted it.

So who could refute a swing change that is tailor-made to generate more bat speed, fly balls, and most likely more offense? Enter: Pete Rose.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 16:10 ET
Mengden (Season Debut) vs. Carrasco (58.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
According to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm, there are no games of great distinction today. David Price’s season debut might possess interest for some; the curiously successful D-backs — a club that’s produced nearly two wins by means of baserunning alone — might appeal to others. As for this game between Oakland and Cleveland, it features the season debut of Daniel Mengden, a pitcher who’s produced very strong statistical indicators in the upper minors over the last couple years and actually showed some promise in 14 major-league starts last year.

Did Aristotle suggest that the act of contemplation is the greatest pleasure available to man? It sounds plausible. Whatever the case, the game facilitates the opportunity to contemplate Daniel Mengden and his prospects for the future.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Triston McKenzie has a big arm. He’s also charismatic with a big heart, which helps make him a natural fit for the team that drafted him 42nd overall in 2015. As much as any organization in baseball, the pitching-rich Cleveland Indians value character and makeup.

McKenzie has all the makings of a role model, but at 19 years old, he is hesitant to set it as a goal. He would nonetheless embrace that sort of reputation.

“I wouldn’t try to put myself in that position, but if that’s what happens, that’s what happens,” said McKenzie, who has a 2.84 ERA this year with high-A Lynchburg. “I always try to set a good example for my younger (16 year old) brother, and I guess it would stem from there.”

McKenzie pays attention to players he can look up to, and model his game after. He feels that athletes who set good examples are not only “good for the culture of baseball,” they also “open eyes for a lot of people outside the game.”

His father isn’t a pitching professional — McKenzie’s parents are both physical therapist assistants — but he does have insights on the craft. Pitchability is considered one of the youngster’s strengths, and paternal advice is part of the reason. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Washington | 16:05 ET
Richard (62.2 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Strasburg (60.1 IP, 83 xFIP-)
When the author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm identified May 21st’s game between Arizona and San Diego as the day’s most promising largely on the basis of Clayton Richard’s presence, it appeared only to underscore how haphazardly calculated that same algorithm must be. What actually happened, though, is Richard conceded just a single run over nine innings while recording a 6:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio — all on just 96 pitches (box). To further understand what might be facilitating Richard’s success, consider reading this piece by Jeff Sullivan. Alternatively, consider surrendering to the dark unknown of the universe.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Pokémon as a baseball show, Mike Montgomery’s workload, whether the Yankees are preparing to turn heel again, and the AL’s early interleague dominance, then discuss whether baseball fans are better off with or without an awareness of projections and playoff odds.

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Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Godley (25.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Guerra (3.0 IP, 60 xFIP-)
Right-hander Junior Guerra makes his first major-league appearance since departing from his Opening Day start with a calf injury. He pitches for a Milwaukee club that resides much closer to the top of the NL’s centermost division than one would have reasonably assumed back on April 3rd — to face a much more competitive Arizona club than one would have expected at that time, as well.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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