Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Hello everyone, I hope you’re having a nice holiday weekend and not asking questions from a work cubicle …

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started ….

Percy Miracles: Hi Travis, in your article about Buxton from a few weeks ago I found it strange that only now did Molitor talk to him about his approach and swing, especially with him bouncing back and forth from the minors and majors. Is this common, meaning that managers and players don’t communicate very often regarding a player’s struggles? You’d think a great hitter like Molitor would be trying to offer advice and pose questions to their prized prospect.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Percy. I assume they had other conversations … but that conversation was mostly related to the leg kick. I think teams want to let players figure it out on their own to an extend, and approach them when they are struggling, when they are more receptive to instruction

Seymour: Aaron Judge now has an OPS of 1.102 through nearly two full months of games. What kind of numbers do you see him ending the season with?

Travis Sawchik: There will be an a cooling period, adjustments to be made, but I see him finishing with at least 35 home runs, with health, and an OPS north of .900

Ben: Do you agree that the increase in three true outcomes has made the game less interesting? Cherry-picking, but the Cubs and Dodgers combined for 13 runs yesterday, all on homers.

Travis Sawchik: I think more balls in play would be better for the game

Ho lee fook: Does trevor bauer+ Mejia and McKenzie sound like a good deal for quintana? Inner division tax but kinda lines up

Travis Sawchik: I know the Indians pitching has been a little shaky, but Kluber is back soon, Carrasco has top-of-the rotation stuff as does Salazar assuming he gets himself straightened out in the bullepn…not sure how aggressive I would be in targeting a SP.

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Indians

Jose: Hey Travis- are there area within the fangraphs ‘world’ that you’re excited to get involved in (or want to avoid)? E.g., pumped to collaborate with Longenhagens on prospects but really want to stay away from fantasy?

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to collaborate with Longenhagen in the future. I’m not a coder but I’d be curious to pick up some SQL skills. I’ve talked to Sean Dolinar about learning some basic skills

License to Kim Jong Ill: Please rank the following uses of cups: peanut butter, cake, nut.

Travis Sawchik: Peanut butter, cake, nut

Big Joe Mufferaw: How far on the Severino wagon are you? His stuff seems wicked, throwing stikes and getting Ks

Travis Sawchik: You gotta love the stuff.

Travis Sawchik: With Severino having a nice start and the BABIP Gods being kinder to Pineda, there are some nice rotation building blocks (And maybe Tanaka is getting right)

Travis Sawchik: Did we mention the Yankees are in a great spot? Love what Cashman and his team have done

Jim Lonborg: Veteran sportswriters often quote scouts anonymously. How do those relationships develop? What’s in it for the scout?

Travis Sawchik: I’ve developed relationships with scouts in scout seating at minor league parks, media dining (where scouts also eat pre-game), and at drinking establishments after games. It can be something of an information trade, but it can seem like a one-sided relationship at times.

Nick: What moves do you see the Dodgers making at the trade deadline?

Travis Sawchik: Dodgers are in a great position where they have a top-5 MLB run scoring team, top-5 run prevention bullpen and staff

Travis Sawchik: So I’m not sure there are a ton of pressing needs, especially if Rich Hill can put that blister issue beyond him. A dominant bullpen arm to join Jansen would be interesting

Ryan: If the season ended today and you could only keep one of Adam Eaton and Michael Conforto for the 2018 fantasy season, who would you keep?

Travis Sawchik: Conforto and his power

Big Joe Mufferaw: What’s wrong with Kyle Schawrber? He’s my everyday catcher and simply isn’t producing.. Should I stay patient, I don’t want to sell low?

Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t see low but I might look for another option short term. This is a young player who missed a year of development and playing time. I think he’ll have a much better second half

Jim Lonborg: Thanks for chatting today, Travis. Hope you’re having a good holiday weekend and not just working.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks! happy to be of service

Greg: Do you believe in Greinke going forward? Sustainable?

Travis Sawchik: I thought he was going to have a much better year. He’s got a better catcher (Mathis) to throw to, and a better defense when Pollock is healthy

Travis Sawchik: And concerns about his velocity have been mostly eased http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P&pitch=…

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think he’ll strike out 10 every start but he’s still a quality No. 1

Yoan Moncada: Would you drop Alex Bregman for me?

Travis Sawchik: in a re-draft league, I’d be tempted. In a shallow league, I would

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Yesterday’s TB-Min game started at 2, and I had tickets to a minor league game at 7. The MLB one ended in the bottom of the 6th of the MiLB one. That’s fun for fans of 28 teams, but I have to think both managers would take the tie after 13 innings or so. Erasmo Ramirez got the save last night and will be starting tonight! I believe you said you were in favor of ties, I see why now.

Travis Sawchik: I’m pro-tie.

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baseball-and-the-tie-game-a-logical-mat…

Travis Sawchik: There are not many games that go 13-plus innings every season, but they do place so much stress on a major league staff that I think it makes sense to not allow one game bleed over in the next day or two

Mr. Nor’easter: Could you please rank ROS: Maeda, Ray, Shoemaker. Each has a fair share of warts, yet each has a lot of upside.

Travis Sawchik: I was a big Shoemaker guy pre-season but I’d rank: Ray, Maeda then Shoemaker. I like Ray’s strikeouts and his 13 swinging strike rate

Big Joe Mufferaw: Is what Gallo is doing now what you expected from Judge this year?

Travis Sawchik: I actually thought Judge would trim his strikeout rate a bit, but I think if you asked the Yankees if they would take Gallo’s 118 wRC+ for Judge in March they would sign up

Matt : David Freese is a nice little vet for a club to sign when you need steady, good production on the corners. You think next free agent cycle someone offers him a contract only if he changes his stance to be more fly ball heavy and gives incentives to that kind of thing or is that a bit to cute for a player who’s been a steady above average player for his career

Travis Sawchik: A player is more willing to experiment with assurances and a MLB contract. That would be the most creative contract I’m aware of but I like it! Freese is definitely a player who would really benefit. He has well above average exit velo but is a worm-killer

Angry Mets Fan: I don’t know if you saw, but Terry Collins said that once Cespedes comes back, Conforto will be getting more days off. He also said getting Grandy going is important for the team. As a Mets fan who sees us going nowhere this year, should I be worried that Collins will once again hurt Conforto’s progression by not playing him everyday? Or am I just overreacting because I hate Terry Collins so very much?

Travis Sawchik: Conforto and Cespedes should be near every day players. Conforto should definitely play over Granderson, imo … I mean Conforto has a 177 wRC+ and a .322/.416/.658 slash line

Terry Collins: At the end of the year, will everyone be talking about how I lead this team so well and my guys never quit, or will the chatter be about my flamout caused by bad bullpen management?

Travis Sawchik: I will have a more favorable opinion if Conforto is playing every day

Jose: If this is who Gallo is, is he a fine fulltime player? If he decreases his k-rate to, say 32%, is he an all-star?

Travis Sawchik: If this is who Gallo is it’s still a useful player and it’s reasonable to suspect he can trim his K rate by a few points and become even more valuable. He’s Russell Branyan II but that’s not a bad thing

Phlegm56: Who do you think gets bumped out of the rotation for the Pirates when Taillon returns? Glasnow has not been good to say the least, Kuhl has been even worse lately, and Williams has been serviceable after his first start against the Dodgers.

Travis Sawchik: It would be between Kuhl and Williams for me. I want to see more of Glasnow. Kuhl was supposed to be a ground-ball guy but only has a 37 GB%. That’s concerning.

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Pirates I want to learn more about what I have in Glasnow

bosoxforlife: Brian Johnson, Tyler Danish and Christian Bergman all won games this weekend in which they did not give a run. The only time they will see 91 is on the speedometer. Is it possible that the hitters are so geared up for velo that the soft tosser throws them off? I mentioned these 3 only bcause none are established. The noted soft tosser, and pain in the behind of the number crunchers, Marco Estrada also shined.

Travis Sawchik: I’d still rather have the velocity but more than anything I want quality spin in today’s game

Stevil: Jacob Faria has been missing a lot of bats in the International League and his outpitches are looking better and better. Could (or should) Tampa use him as a chip to address another need, or do you see them taking a hard look at him first?

Travis Sawchik: I’d rather get a look at him first

Travis Sawchik: If the Rays were one piece away then maybe I’d look at it from a different perspective

Pie: At this point it’s hard to predict accurately, but when do you think Gleyber gets promoted? Do you think he’s worth a speculative pickup in a 12 team keep 5?

Travis Sawchik: I would add, yes

Travis Sawchik: I always like upside plays

Marcus: Should the Pirates continue to give Cutch game time lower down the order to salvage some trade value or has the prospect of a trade already evaporated?

Travis Sawchik: I can’t imagine McCutchen has much trade value, which is kind of amazing … What will be really interesting is to see what the Pirates do with his club option after the season assuming he’s still around

Travis Sawchik: Out of all the options regarding McCutchen’s future, when considering it a couple yearse ago, I never thought it would involve declining a club option.

cagney and lacy: What is your analysis of Matt Harvey’s start yesterday and his projection for the rest of the season?

Travis Sawchik: I saw the first three innings. He was missing up a lot with has fastball but posted a solid final line. I do think he’s going to be a solid mid-rotation option going forward.

Trainman: Travis, one guy who I think has been criminally under appreciated is Whit Merrifield in fantasy circles. Unexpected power, he’s always had speed. When will Yost get Escobar and his barely .200 OBP out of the leadoff spot?

Travis Sawchik: Merrifield is a nice MLB player but I’m not sure he’s a fantasy asset unless you are in a deep league, but he’d be an upgrade over Escobar for the Royals. It’s indefensible to have Escobar batting lead-off

Rick: Altuve is really the only player stealing bases for the Astros, Correa has zero attempts and Spring has 2 attempts/ out both times. Do you think this is a conscious decision by the Astros?

Travis Sawchik: Seems to be a team-wide philosophy

Hannah Hochevar: Eno seems to think Matt Boyd has potential (thanks in part to a new arm slot), but he’s looked pretty rough. Do you have a take?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not super excited about him

Trainman: Hey Travis hope your well. Mets fan here. This year may be rapidly approaching a lost year for them (yes I know it’s only June, but very far back), but am I crazy to think this isn’t the worst thing in the world? They have guys who could net them returns in Bruce, Duda, Walker, asdrubal Cabrera, Addison Reed, and to a lesser extent Reyes and granderson if any. They can fill some of the spots with Dom Smith and Rosario. Conforto would play everyday. You still have cespedes. Then next year when syndergaard and maybe familia are 100% hopefully for the whole year (not counting on familia right now at all with the blood clots. Get that fixed, life over baseball), they can get a natural center fielder, second baseman.. don’t think they would be that far off. Sorry for long winded question. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: That’s the glass-is-half-full outlook, very nice! There is something to be said of knowing whether you’re a clear buyer or seller at the deadline.Bruce , Walker and Reed should all be able to return something of value

cheese steak: Are you buying what Nick Williams has been serving in AAA for the Phillies recently? Is he finally reaching his potential?

Travis Sawchik: I’m still pretty concerned about the approach, BB% and K%

Ryan: Who is the one buy-low guy you are buying shares of right now?

Travis Sawchik: My sense is Schwarber owners are getting close to bailing … I’d buy low

Max: Bellinger, Conforto or Judge. Who will have the better career? I guess there is not a bad answer!

Travis Sawchik: I love that group. They are all star-level guys, for me.

Travis Sawchik: Bellinger’s swing is one of my favorite things

Travis Sawchik: That’s a tough choice. I’ve said Conforto over Judge in past chats, but Judge has made me a big believer

Golly: Happy Memorial Day for All past heroes. Hi Trav. for rest of season, how do you see Bregman?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s all take a moment today to remember why we’re enjoying a long weekend. …. I suspect Bregman will be better, but he’s probably not going to carry a team

CW: I traded Schwarber for Allen. Did I sell too low?

Travis Sawchik: In a yearly league, no. Allen is great. Underrated closer for fantasy

Dancing Dan Mcgraw: Could the cubs be worried about the Brew Crew and make a deal for Braun? Heyward + cash + happ for Braun

Travis Sawchik: Nah

xmx: Hey Travis! Question about rainouts – Say its a 1pm game and it gets postponed, why is it easier to push it to another day alll-together as opposed to maybe a 4pm or 7pm gametime (assuming the weather would allow)?

Travis Sawchik: It would make some sense for teams to be more flexible with start times, I suppose…but people have schedules to keep and it would be tough for teams on getaway days

Pie: The Astros were freed from Mike Fiers starts for a total of 9 hours. With Charlie Morton’s injury, do you see an expedited timetable for the promotion of Paulino or Martes?

Travis Sawchik: I wish we could see a fully, healthy season from Morton. I don’t think Fiers will get much more leash

kevin: Hey, just want to thank you for the amazing work you’ve done this year. You’ve been my favorite baseball writer to read

Travis Sawchik: Very kind of you, Kevin. There are a ton of great writers out there but I’m glad you’ve been enjoying my contributions

Paul Strelow: How good do you think Moncada will be once called up?

Travis Sawchik: Hey Paul!

Travis Sawchik: He might face an adjustment period … and the Ks are a little concerning but he’s worth an upside play. But he’ll be better than Nolasco 😉

Richie: Umm, regarding that ‘push the start back’ idea. Fans have schedules, too.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, to clarify, that’s what I meant by schedules to keep

Itchy: Do you see any trades taking place significantly before the 7/31 deadline? Wash closer? Roberston??

Travis Sawchik: A lot of people are connecting those dots. I’m curious to see how patient the Yankees will be

Quintana: Am I done for as a consistent, reliable starter?

Travis Sawchik: No, but I wonder if the White Sox were being too greedy in the offseason. They risk a performance decline or injury by holding

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I’m going to wrap up here on this holiday. … Take a moment to remember those who have fallen in service for our country today. … Same time/place next week. Be good, do good.