The Thanksgiving holiday now over, our examination of MLB hitters’ contact quality rolls on, utilizing granular exit-speed and launch-angle data. We’ve already reviewed first basemen and DHs; next up is an interesting group of AL second basemen.
At some point this week, we’re probably going to get a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The current one expires on Thursday, and given MLB’s current revenue situation, neither side can be all that incentivized to screw things up right now. Both the owners and the players are getting very rich off of baseball’s ability to sell their television rights, and to risk that kind of cash cow over something like the qualifying offer or an international draft would be the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face. There may be hurdles yet to clear, but they’re very likely going to be cleared.
A seemingly settled issue in negotiations is the coming expansion of the active roster. According to Ken Rosenthal, owners have agreed to expand the April-August roster limit to 26 players in exchange for a reduction in the September limit, which will come down from 40 to 28 or 29. This will deliver a more consistent brand of baseball throughout the year, rather than having the final month played under very different rules than the rest of the season.
The concern is that expanding the roster will just give Major League managers the green light to carry yet another relief pitcher. We’re already seeing more pitchers used per game than ever before, and with another available bullpen arm, there would be even more opportunities to pull the starter early. And while there are plenty of valid strategic reasons to prefer relievers over tiring starters, from an aesthetic standpoint, the game’s march towards more pitchers throwing fewer pitches probably isn’t something baseball should be trying to accelerate.
| 12:05 |
: Sorry guys, a few minutes late!
|
| 12:06 |
: (Was finishing up an Overwatch piece)
|
| 12:06 |
: Giants supposedly feel ok with Nunez at third, and the Dodgers need to cut their debt. If not one of those two, who could emerge as a suitor for Justin Turner?
|
| 12:08 |
: I acutally wouldn’t put it past the Red Sox to short-circuit the whole Shaw/Sandoval question and just sign Turner.
|
| 12:09 |
: I still think however that if the Dodgers are going to try to get Turner in somehow.
|
| 12:09 |
: A lot of the usual suspects have good 3B situations.
|
The Angels: what a case study in weird this team is. Here are a few things to consider about them, if this is your first time reading about baseball:
It’s easy to make fun of the Angels — and don’t worry, we’ll do that — but they’re infinitely more interesting than your run-of-the-mill bad baseball team. This isn’t the Braves we’re talking about here. The Angels aren’t in full-on tank mode, and even if they were, they have Trout making them not completely horrendous through sheer force of will. Despite their poor 2016 season, they didn’t even finish in last place in their division, because Oakland exists — and, again, Mike Trout. However, the Angels did do something well in 2016 besides provide the best player on the planet with meaningful employment.
While the Hall of Fame ballot is still heavy with deserving candidates, last season did help a bit in terms of making this year’s decision easier for voters. Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza gained entry this past January, Alan Trammell and Mark McGwire exhausted their eligibility, and both Jim Edmonds and Nomar Garciaparra failed to receive the necessary 5% of the vote required to remain on the ballot.
Among the newcomers, only four candidates — Vladimir Guerrero, Jorge Posada, Manny Ramirez, and Ivan Rodriguez — appear worthy of serious consideration. With more voters than ever choosing to fill their ballot with 10 names, several players close to induction — in particular Tim Raines, who enters his final year on the ballot — might stand to benefit.
Last year, Jeff Bagwell fell 15 votes short, while Raines and Trevor Hoffman received 23 and 34 fewer votes, respectively, than the 330 necessary to appear on 75% of the ballots and (in turn) earn a place in the Hall.
The electorate, of course, isn’t composed of a static number. Some voters choose not to cast a ballot and others fail to meet the requirements of voting. Still other members receive their Hall of Fame ballots for the first time. In the end, it’s the 75% figure that’s the relevant one, not 330.
As for this year’s returning candidates, the cases for or against them are pretty clear. For a few borderline cases, meanwhile, this year’s voting represents an opportunity to gain the necessary momentum to receive induction at a later date. Of the 15 returning candidates, there are six pitchers, five outfielders, and four infielders. Let’s start with the outfielders.
After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Washington.
Batters
The present document represents only the second of 30 total installments of these team-by-by ZiPS projections. Despite that, it’s likely that no other club’s hitters will receive such optimistic forecasts as the Cubs’ do here. Nor is that particularly surprising: Chicago’s field players produced the highest collective WAR figure in the league by some distance in 2016 — and only one of that team’s starters (Dexter Fowler) has left by way of free agency.
Kris Bryant (6.9 zWAR) receives basically the best projection possible among players who aren’t also Mike Trout. Anthony Rizzo (5.7) and Addison Russell (4.2) also profile as star-level types, per Dan Szymborski’s computer. ZiPS calls for the remainder of the team’s starters to produce wins at an average rate or better — including Jason Heyward (3.1), whose defensive forecast (+13 runs in right field) compensates for whatever offensive deficiencies he might continue to exhibit.
Location: Boston
Read the rest of this entry »
Location: Minneapolis
Read the rest of this entry »
Player X should be in the Hall of Fame because Player Y is in the Hall of Fame is a common argument. As often as not, a good counter argument can be made that neither is deserving —Y was a marginal candidate, and enshrining X would further water down what is meant to be a select group. If you’re an advocate of a “small hall.” that would be your view. If you’re in the “big hall” camp, X-and-Y debates are more likely to strike your fancy.
With that in mind, let’s compare Vladimir Guerrero — on the ballot for the first time — with Jim Rice, who is often cited as a marginal Hall of Famer. Outfielders known for their offensive prowess, they had careers of equal duration.
Guerrero had 9.059 plate appearances, 2,590 hits, and 972 extra-base hits. Rice had 9,058 plate appearances, 2,452 hits, and 848 extra-base hits.
Guerrero slashed .318/.379/.553. Rice slashed .298/.352/.502.
Guerrero had an OPS+ of 130-or-better 11 times, and 150-or-better six times. His high-water mark was 162. Rice had an OPS+ of 130-or-better six times, and 150-or-better twice. His high-water mark was 157. Read the rest of this entry »
$11.5 million is what the Braves will give Sean Rodriguez over the next two years, and that seems fine even if he reverts to a utility infielder that faces mostly lefties. But there’s a few things Rodriguez did right last year, and if he does those things right again, he’ll be worth much more than the money he’s due. A team like the Braves needed to make a signing like this.
